Why Can’t Canada Win the Stanley Cup? (2013)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/

by jonbaer • 11 years ago

30 52 11 years ago

howeyc• 11 years ago

In summary,

They have got close a few times (reaching the finals five times in 19 years, losing in game 7 four times, ouch).

The teams are not distributed to have a more consistent fans-per-team ratio everywhere (Canada has lower population, but much much higher hockey interest, so fans-per-team is higher in Canada). Adding 2-4 teams would probably bring the fans-per-team ratio closer to USA numbers.

slantyyz13• 11 years ago

Not just that, some teams just don't have a vested interest in winning. I mean, why try if people are going to give you money regardless of how you perform?

With maybe the exception of this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs were basically guaranteed to sell out every game.

The Leafs haven't won a Stanley Cup since 67, 3 years before I was born, and I honestly don't think it will happen again in my lifetime.

vaadu• 11 years ago

The Leafs were under-achievers last year and recently hired arguably the best coach in the league in Mike Babcock.

I expect them to be in the playoffs next year and contending for the cup in the near future.

The Leafs are also the the most valuable team in the NHL. http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/

pitt19804• 11 years ago

that's doesn't make much sense

its not like ticket prices are fixed, even if you already sell out every game, you can always raise prices if the demand will support it

not to mention all the other revenue streams that have nothing to do with how many people are in the building

--------------------------------------------

I'd look more at the relative tax rates, hockey is a capped sport, Canadian teams can only pay what US teams can pay, however less of it can stay in the players pockets after taxes

its appears that the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in the US leveled the field signficantly for Canadian teams (though they were in effect for a signficant portion of the time frame examined in the 538 article) http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/10/01/u-s-t...

wmat• 11 years ago

Interesting article. I think it underestimates the number of regions in Canada that could support an NHL franchise. For example, the Region of Waterloo, with a population of 500,000+. If Junior Hockey attendance can be used as a predictor of NHL attendance, consider that the Kitchener Rangers sell out their 7000 seat arena for every home game.

slantyyz13• 11 years ago

The problem with that is the Maple Leafs. You're not likely to see any teams pop up within 200km of Toronto, because the Leafs will likely have to get compensated very heavily for the right to do that.

I live in Markham, Ontario -- just north of Toronto, and they wasted a ton of money "studying" the construction of an NHL class arena. I think hell would freeze over before the Leafs allowed another team to enter their geographic monopoly.

RyanMcGreal• 11 years ago

Heh, try living in Hamilton.

peeters9• 11 years ago

Even most Leafs fans I talk to (and myself) think a second Toronto (or at least southern Ontario) franchise would be good for the Leafs, because it might actually force them to be good to draw in fans.

giarc• 11 years ago

I read an article about the possibility of these teams popping up. One example of how it could work is if the Leafs had the TV rights to the new team. I believe this is how the Nationals and Orioles operate in the MLB.

macspoofing• 11 years ago

Honestly, it's better to just put another team in Toronto. Toronto can support two teams easily, and you have a access to a bigger sponsorship market.

tixocloud2• 11 years ago

What would be interesting is to take a deep-dive into the players that American and Canadian teams have - my hypothesis is that American teams just have better players overall, which could be due to the currency differences. As it is, the American teams arguably have a ton of Canada's best players.

noer2• 11 years ago

All players are paid in USD, regardless of where the team is located. I think American teams have better players because of the living/playing conditions. There isn't a huge expectation to win every single year and for the most part the cities are nicer to live in during the winter.

slantyyz13• 11 years ago

> I think American teams have better players because of the living/playing conditions.

To get the best hockey players via the draft, your team has to be among the worst for a few years. If you have a consistently middling team like the Leafs, you'll never be able to draft the likes of a Sidney Crosby, and free agents who want to win a Stanley Cup generally go to cities where it's most likely to happen. I don't think Toronto is at the top of the short list.

kejaed2• 11 years ago

With the salary cap, revenue sharing, and everyone paid in USD, the gross salaries available for most teams to spend is about the same.

A big difference between playing Canada vs. the USA would be income tax. It's going to be north of 50% when playing in Canada.

mcrae• 11 years ago

I might be wrong, but I don't suspect that forex plays a large part. The NHL has both a salary cap and a salary floor (the cap -$16M) denominated in USD. Further, between 2009 and just earlier this year, the CAD was at par or stronger than the USD for most of the time.

I looked at some data [1] which shows that CA teams have an average salary ~5% lower than their US counterparts. The 2 teams with the lowest salaries are American.

You are right that the Americans have all our best players though. More than 50% of NHL players are Canadian, followed by ~25% American, and ~8% Swedish.

[1] http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/

tixocloud2• 11 years ago

I see. Yes, I am curious as to why most of our best players are on American teams. Wondering also if it's just that Canadian teams struggle with coaching or if it's the fact that we just can't get great players (which I don't believe is true. Despite the Leafs not doing well, the team isn't actually that terrible I'd say).

kejaed2• 11 years ago

Well, for 2015 it's cause the Habs can't score any goals, tabarnak.

TheHydroImpulse2• 11 years ago

Imagine if they had a power play worth a damn. Habs were 4th in the league in 5v5 scoring iirc.

Tiktaalik• 11 years ago

This article touches on the accepted justification for expanding the league by choosing US cities such as Las Vegas over say Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, which that in the USA you have this huge possible range to grow, whereas in smaller Canadian centres hockey may be hugely popular, but its possible that the NHL is already reaching all the hockey fans they'll ever get and there's little room for growth.

The question of whether there's any room for further growth in hockey popularity in Canada is being tested right now. Rogers Sportsnet just bought I think 10 years of exclusive hockey broadcast rights in Canada and I've read some articles that state that Rogers will need to increase the amount of people who watch hockey for this endeavour to be profitable. To start they've already cranked up the total number of games that appear on TV. It's going to be interesting to see if they can move the needle.

peeters9• 11 years ago

Major League Baseball’s Kansas City Royals, for example, aren’t merely unlucky to have failed to reach the playoffs in 28 years: they have usually stunk.

I smiled at that given what has happened since. But my smile disappeared when I realized that now my Toronto Blue Jays would be the go-to-example in the Royals' place.

slantyyz13• 11 years ago

I don't think the Jays have been as spend happy as they were prior to 93. Since then, it seems like the belt has been very tight. 92-93 were great years to be a Toronto sports fan.

waterside81• 11 years ago

What this article has done is outed all the Canadians on HN. Hey hosers!

There is no reason other than the US teams just happen to have drafted better, hired better etc. Nothing to do with economics as there is a hard salary cap.

Edmonton won the lottery this year and will get McDavid. Maybe that swings the tables. Had a Canadian team won the lottery the year Crosby was drafted, maybe that changes things.

Not all trends are explained by stats.

slantyyz13• 11 years ago

Edmonton is going to be a scary team over the next few years, given how well they've done in the draft lottery.

ende2• 11 years ago

Or they will continue to be a black hole for first round talent. They badly need to get their act together at the highest level before they can even think about putting together a competetive team. An ownership change may be in order.

TheHydroImpulse2• 11 years ago

To be fair, Edmonton has also been quite unlucky in the draft. Although they have won the lottery a few times recently, the years inbetween where they went #2 or #3 franchise players like Stamkos and Taveres were drafted.

Luckily they got McDavid, so that kinda evens things out.

makeitsuckless• 11 years ago

Uh, because the NHL, like most professional North-American sports is a completely artificial franchise based entertainment operation thinly disguised as sports?

It has ice hockey teams in California for fuck sake!

(Yes, this is me as a snobbish European speaking. I will never understand how this form of sports competition can be taken seriously. Although come to think of it, compared to most of the world, North America doesn't take sports competitions that seriously.)

peeters9• 11 years ago

Are you talking about the North America that has around 15 universities with higher average (football) attendance than any team in the Champion's League gets [1][2]?

[1] http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/20...

[2] http://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/champions-league-201...

Coincoin• 11 years ago

Not a single word about income taxes? I'm not saying it's making a difference, but it should at least had been investigated.

For instance, someone playing for the Montreal Canadians will get taxed for about 55%. That's a significant difference compared to any American team where income taxes of 40% is considered high.

Edit: Wow, I grossly underestimated how rich people are taxed.

Why Can’t Canada Win the Stanley Cup? (2013)

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