A Murky Road Ahead for Android, Despite Market Dominance

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/technology/personaltech/a-murky-road-ahead-for-android-despite-market-dominance.html

by ddlatham • 11 years ago

60 74 11 years ago

nytimes.com

mkawia3• 11 years ago

TL:DR

A lot of poor people use android , poor people don't spend a lot and don't click many ads.Therefore Android is doomed.

pacofvf• 11 years ago

maybe you didn't read the article it says that Google also benefits from iOS users(although it says it's a risk that they lose the higher end niche), and the "poor" people are the ones actually ditching the google ecosystem entirely. The article never talks about poor people, instead it refers to places where google services are unavailable/unpopular, e.g. China.

edit: For those down voting, could you please quote the part of the article that implies this: " A lot of poor people use android , poor people don't spend a lot and don't click many ads.Therefore Android is doomed."

it actually contradicts the parent comment: " For years, Android apps were a backwater, but sales have lately picked up."

"In 2014, Google Play sold about $10 billion in apps, of which Google kept about $3 billion (the rest was paid out to developers). "

"Google’s app revenue is becoming an increasingly meaningful piece of its overall business, and it is also growing rapidly."

bduerst3• 11 years ago

This article commits a composition fallacy and ignores that Android is the cost-leader.

Yes, as the #1 low-cost solution you're going to have users you don't make a return from, but you have enough users that as a sum you make returns. Android's strategy isn't to maximize returns from each user.

It's a subjective article and doesn't really provide anything insightful beyond FUD of the future.

Oletros2• 11 years ago

I like the part about iOS representing the 75% of mobile ad revenue for Google without even linking to the source

Yes, some analyst at Goldman says something in a report and now is an stated fact like I'm saying in some other sites.

fidotron• 11 years ago

It's interesting to see a wider acceptance of the reality of the mess of Android.

Really the shocking thing was how good the iPhone 6 was, and how ready to switch to iOS places like Korea were when the larger devices became available, when previously it had been assumed those markets were lost to Apple. The emerging social class type distinction emerging globally between Android and iOS users is a real and growing problem for Google, especially combined with Apple's probable search engine launch.

The noise from my network in Android land has been that Lollipop remains a disaster. Easily the worst version since Android became popular, and it will be very curious to see what, if anything, Google have proposed for the resulting mess at I/O.

It says quite a lot that the most exciting thing about Android for I/O is the rumoured stripped down headless version for Internet-of-Things devices, which may become an accidental foundation for a cleaned up future Android proper.

Oletros2• 11 years ago

Is this an example of Poe's law?

tompagenet2• 11 years ago

I don't have the contacts to know if my opinions with Android are even vaguely representative. I'm interested in what your network think is wrong with Android Lollipop, and without any sarcasm or snideness can I please ask who your network represents just to get a sense of how representative it is?

bane3• 11 years ago

From a user who's devices just all upgraded a short while ago, it has all the usability problems of the new google maps. Things are more animated/transition-y/slid-y, but hell if I can figure out what to push or where a desired setting is.

It looks great, but it's not great for usability.

mkawia3• 11 years ago

Android can run on $40 phones and therefore widely used .To me that's the most exciting thing about android ,that's almost as huge as what Microsoft did in the 90s ,you know making actual impact. There are more people talking to Google voice than Siri

jp555• 11 years ago

There are many more people talking to Siri today than used Microsoft software in the 90s. Apple sells more iPhones in a quarter than the annual global sales of computers in 1995.

Mobile is big enough for at least iOS and several flavours of Android. Speaking of which, those $40 Android phones don't come with Google services do they, so is anyone talking to them?

declan• 11 years ago

network in Android land has been that Lollipop remains a disaster

That's merely anecdotal, and my own anecdotes run in the opposite direction.

I'm building https://recent.io/ for Android and iOS and have a Nexus 5, iPhone 5, and iPhone 6 Plus on my desk as test devices as I write this. I use both OSes, though I do use iOS a bit more.

It's true that early versions of L were less than stable, though Apple has had the same problem. Another problem is slow adoption; only in the last few weeks, I think, has the Galaxy A3 been L-upgradable.

The saving grace for Android L is Material Design, which is finally a strong unifying design language at least as good as what Apple has to offer and IMHO better with at spanning different device sizes. It's well thought out and will make Android apps easier to use (and Android generally easier to use) by increasing UI/UX standard interactions. That's anything but a "disaster."

higherpurpose2• 11 years ago

Why is Lollipop a disaster? It introduced many great things.

evilduck• 11 years ago

Like memory leaks. Greatly problematic.

cartoonfoxes• 11 years ago

It says quite a lot that the most exciting thing about Android for I/O is the rumoured stripped down headless version for Internet-of-Things devices, which may become an accidental foundation for a cleaned up future Android proper.

Can you point me somewhere I can read more about this? i.e. not just the Google serach results, but any specific reading if you have suggestions. I'm an Android developer working with a company which is doing some very exotic things with custom hardware, and would kill to have something like this.

fenaer• 11 years ago

What if a significant number of the people who adopted Android as their first smartphone move on to something else as they become power users? In Apple’s last two earnings calls, Timothy D. Cook, the chief executive, reported “a higher rate of switchers than we’ve experienced in previous iPhone cycles.”

Are they trying to insinuate that power users move to iOS? I'd consider myself a power user, but for that very reason I've stuck with Android. Higher-end Android phones provide much more for me than iOS can with its closed-ecosystem.

Also, are these "switchers" coming from Android, or a mix of other sources?

bane3• 11 years ago

If I had to bet, it's probably Apple finally getting around to offering a phone product in the size that people want. For years, if you wanted a large phone your choice was only Android.

earlz• 11 years ago

And now the situation is reversed, if you want a normal size (ie, less than 6 inches) phone, Apple is starting to be the only company in business that delivers powerful hardware in a non-phablet form-factor

tdkl• 11 years ago

I consider myself as a power user aswell, but I've left Android after 5 years on the platform - reason being Lollipop. I'd consider Android when Google starts taking it seriously again and not a pet project.

amatheus• 11 years ago

They may be talking about power users as users who uses more of the phone, not necessarily technically inclined users.

clumsysmurf• 11 years ago

It depends on what they mean by power user. If you like customizing the OS, running another ROM, launcher, or theme, than Android is friendly to that.

If you like using more powerful software, than iOS / iPad seem the clear winner there. Look at the top 10 in both stores, they are very different.

In Apple Store, you will see lots of photography and music apps. In Android, its games and social media.

I've been developing for Android half a decade now, but still see the OS as a toy that can't grow up - mostly because of its design and APIs, but thats another story for another time.

I think both Microsoft and Apple are in better situation with convergence between their form factors and the capabilities of each platform.

minthd• 11 years ago

For audio there's the known latency problem, but photography(the more popular category), android recently released new camera API's . won't they solve that issue?

rhino369• 11 years ago

I had to switch based on my company only supporting ios on a BYOD plan. But once I switched I sorta prefer ios. But I could be swayed back, especially if Android phones start decreasing in price as they commoditize themselves like PCs did.

Goladus2• 11 years ago

Are they trying to insinuate that power users move to iOS?

Well, if Google tries to make Android more profitable by adding more restrictions and trying to make it more like an iPhone-- I'll be faced with the decision to either switch to iPhone (which is probably better at being an iPhone than Android) or one of the Android forks. As the article points out:

Even in the rest of Asia, where many low-cost phone manufacturers do include Google’s apps on their phones, there’s growing interest in finding some alternative to Google’s version of Android. About 30 percent of Android smartphones shipped in the last quarter of 2014 were actually modified, or forked, versions of the OS that may not be very hospitable to Google’s services, according to the firm ABI Research.

drzaiusapelord• 11 years ago

I don't understand why they don't use Tizen, FirefoxOS, Sailfish, Ubuntu, etc if they dislike google so much. The reality is they need google for all the services they can't or won't implement. They don't want to build their own mapping software, browser, etc.

Its all moot anyhow. Google has shoved all the newest APIs into its google play services and without a google license for those items, those apps won't run. This was a play to stop fragmentation like the one you're predicting.

I suspect the 30% of phones are Xiaomi phones, which solely exist because the CCP won't let Chinese citizens access google mobile services as they're blocked by their national firewall. If this block didn't exist, Xiaomi would be using all the Google services everyone else does.

vtlynch• 11 years ago

This assumes "power users" want more engagement with their phone.

If I want to do something complex, I'll do it on my laptop or desktop. My phone is always with me and I just want something straight forward for everyday life.

soylentcola3• 11 years ago

I've always interpreted "power user" in this sense to be someone who occasionally wants to do something specific with their device that may require specific tools.

Like a "normal" user (of a phone) will make calls, texts, browse the web, check email, maybe watch a movie or play a game. A power user may just be someone who wants a custom keyboard for some reason or even just wants to be able to download a file via the browser, navigate to it in the file system, maybe unzip it, copy it elsewhere, open it with another app, etc.

Granted these are just my personal examples because they were things I found exceedingly difficult to do on my old iPad (although I guess the keyboard thing has been added). It wasn't something I had to do all the time but something as simple as browsing the folder structure and finding/moving the file I just downloaded was gonna require me to jailbreak the thing. On my Android phones and tablet, it's not something I often need to do but when I do, it's just a matter of using a file browser.

I think "power user" implies using more basic/powerful features outside of launching apps from a set of icons. Then again, some of the awesome projects I've seen controlled via an iPad prove that iOS users can also be power users as well.

RyanMcGreal• 11 years ago

About one of every two computers sold today is running Android.

So, like, half of them?

throwaway_97• 11 years ago

My main problem with android is the play store. Its so heavily localised with crappy apps and many bad attempts at trying to find the right things for me. I miss out a lot.

toolz• 11 years ago

I agree. How can google of all companies be bad at grabbing the results I want from my search?

bduerst3• 11 years ago

There really needs to be a way to filter apps that have "in-app payments".

While some legit apps have them for upgrade, etc., most are Skinner boxes that are only relevant for a very specific demographic.

MBCook• 11 years ago

Come over to the iPhone side of the fence where...

no, we're flooded with crap too. Tons and tons of it.

I like the walled garden, I like the idea of curation. I just wish Apple would really enforce them. It takes a single search in the iOS store to easily find stuff that is either illegal or just copied junk.

on_and_off4• 11 years ago

Google has announced a new search algorithm during I/O. http://www.androidpolice.com/2015/05/28/io-2015-google-is-wo... Clustering the results by topics sounds like a good improvement, at least in theory.

jonathansizz• 11 years ago

It's an interesting time. Android 5.1 is easily the strongest version of Android that Google have ever produced; in terms of design, functionality and performance the bar has been raised several notches. The big problem that remains is getting it onto devices is a timely manner. This also reared its head on several devices that received 5.0 early, only to have fairly serious bugs that were not rectified for weeks or months until the next update finally rolled out.

Android Wear is the most complete smartwatch OS, backed up by a solid selection of hardware. Chrome OS continues to show strong growth, with Chromebooks and Chromecasts selling very well. Will we see more integration between Chrome and Android? Will Google try to directly interfere with third-party app stores and launchers?

dmix• 11 years ago

Will Google try to directly interfere with third-party app stores and launchers?

They have already in a subtle way. Many apps depend on Google Play Services to function (including TextSecure). It's surprisingly difficult to find a list of good apps that don't depend on Google Play Store being installed.

As it stands, Android is almost unusable for the average user without the stock app store installed

Navarr2• 11 years ago

This is kind of true. Though you're the first person I've heard say it without complaining that GPS isn't in AOSP.

Amazon has done a pretty decent job keeping up their version, as far as I know - and they try to maintain API compatibility.

This could be solved by some good third party architecturing a solution, but overall it's Google dominating by providing the better developer tools and ecosystem.

tadfisher• 11 years ago

Provide a compelling alternative and you'll see developers catering to that audience. As it stands, the Play Store is the de facto target because it has the most users and the best developer experience. Amazon provides a very small fraction of users and revenue, other platforms even less.

misterbee• 11 years ago

But who wants a phone that is going to junk out on every second OS version update?

microtonal• 11 years ago

The big problem that remains is getting it onto devices is a timely manner.

This. I own devices from a manufacturer that supposedly uses close to vanilla Android to roll out quick updates. My Moto X 2013 is still rocking 4.4.4, despite the fact that it was just over a year old when Lollipop came out.

My Moto X 2014 (also pure) has Lollipop, but the bugfix releases (5.0.1 and 5.0.2) were never rolled out. The rumor is that 5.1 is now rolling out in Brazil (I am in the EU) and one US carrier. It's been 2.5 months since 5.1 was released.

No surprise that my next phone will either be a Nexus or an iPhone (I used an iPhone 3G and then 4 for years, and always had prompt updates).

The counterargument is always: the user does not care about updates. But I assume that people who drop 500 Euro on a smartphone care more than those who buy low-end.

jdhawk2• 11 years ago

the user does not care about updates.

The Manufacturer does not care about updates. It nets them no cash flows. Delay the updates, force people to buy new phones for new (software) features.

sliverstorm• 11 years ago

Supposedly the problem with the Moto X is the specialty chip they use for gestures and such. Which is interesting and troubling, because that kind of specialty hardware seems like the #1 place an OEM can add real value & differentiation to their product line, but adds obvious obstacles to rapid OS updates.

krisgenre• 11 years ago

I am sure Android helped them collect data to improve their Maps, Google Now, retain people on Google search, Gmail, Drive.. and to some extent even Google+.

Google's biggest strength is their huge data and Android definitely helps them there.

zmanian• 11 years ago

As a free software proponent, I've spent most of the time promoting Android to my friends.

Android(Non-Nexus) is a toxic hellstew of surveillance and security vulnerabilities.

I'm currently recommending iPhones or Nexus only to my friends.

Google could do a lot to improve this but the carrier relationship with handset manufacturers allow them to MITM the CA systems through root certs and that is god damn unacceptable.

higherpurpose2• 11 years ago

It's also why the rumor that Nexus devices would get 2 years of OS updates and one extra year of security updates (3 years) makes me want to stick with Nexus devices, despite some of their annoying shortcomings such as worse cameras (than high-end competition).

Two years of OS updates (2 major OS versions, since they do them yearly now) + another year of security updates seems quite ideal and I'd hope more OEMs adopt that. Unfortunately even if they do, they won't do it for all of their phones, only their flagships, which means lie 80% of the Android smartphone population won't benefit from it.

ac29• 11 years ago

Two years of OS updates (2 major OS versions, since they do them yearly now) + another year of security updates seems quite ideal

As someone who has recently had to support some Windows XP systems, I have to say Microsoft has set a high bar for support. XP was released in 2001, received major updates for 7 years until 2008 with SP3, and received security updates until 2014, a total of 13 years. Some customers are still receiving special security updates.

While Windows XP is not exactly a desirable OS in 2015 for many reasons, its sad that 3 years of security updates is seen as progress in the smartphone world, and I say that as an Android user with a perfectly functional phone facing EOL this year (a 2013 Nexus 4). I'm hoping google can wrestle enough control from OEMs and carriers to be able to support their OSs for 5+ years with at least security updates. Its not without precedent, they supported Chrome on XP until at least this year -- on a 14 year old OS.

Ologn• 11 years ago

I've been seeing these gloom and doom articles on Android since its launch. Nowadays at least they have to have the reality of the situation included - "A Murky Road Ahead for Android, Despite Market Dominance". "Android is now not just the globe’s most popular smartphone operating system, but the most popular operating system of any kind. More than a billion Android devices were sold in 2014". It doesn't seem so gloomy to me.

At least nowadays these Android gloom-and-doom articles have stopped saying that Microsoft is going to come out and crush Google in mobile. Microsoft's threat has been reduced to being involved in cloning what Google did - "One software start-up, Cyanogen, has raised about $100 million from several investors, including Google’s arch-competitor Microsoft, to sell phone makers an alternative user interface that works on top of Google’s Android."

bob_loblaw2• 11 years ago

I half expected the article to reference the Oracle Java API fiasco. That could definitely murky the waters for Android. This, at least, is pretty credible threat to Android.

mkawia3• 11 years ago

I wish they'd replace Java stuff with something like Go , just get rid of Art/Dalvik . Java is very verbose and the xmls and build tools are all really hard work.

I am obviously being naive here. It probably can't be done

dangoor• 11 years ago

FWIW, there have been iPhone doom and gloom articles since its launch. Maybe it's just that doom and gloom articles get clicks?

georgemcbay• 11 years ago

I'm sure that's the reason. Doom and gloom headlines for any kind of platform or brand identity is perfect as clickbait because it sucks in both the opponents of that thing (due to schadenfreude purposes) and proponents of that thing (who want to see what is being said so they can refute it and be outraged by its wrongness).

"Apple Phones and Android Phones both pretty cool and here to stay for the foreseeable future." just ain't going to get clicked like any of these doom and gloom ones (in either direction) are.

Zigurd• 11 years ago

This article takes a rather strained and artificial angle: It ignores revenue from Google getting to place Google Search, Google Maps, etc. on a billion devices each year. Then, it attributes Google Play revenue to Android. I can buy movies from Google Play on my PC. Profit from media sales are probably greater than profit from app sales.

millstone• 11 years ago

It does not ignore Search or Play:

...Google collected about $11.8 billion on mobile search ads in 2014, with about 75 percent coming from ads on iPhones and iPads... 2014, Google Play sold about $10 billion in apps, of which Google kept about $3 billion

Yes, I can buy Google Play media on other devices, including my iPhone, but surely non-Android Google Play revenue is a rounding error.

The claim about "a billion devices per year" is false - around 30% of Android sales are forked AOSP, which Google does not allow Maps on. The concern is that these forked variants are most popular in growth markets.

BinaryIdiot• 11 years ago

I wonder if Google will need to, eventually, move away from Java or if it's simply impossible at this point. I've owned an Android device with every version of Android so far (all flagship devices) as well as iOS devices and I find it difficult that Android still has that annoying (but occasional) lag that everyone equates to Java and garbage collection (though with so many initiatives from Google to eliminate this I have to wonder if it's really garbage collection that's the problem). I see this on my wife's S6 Edge and on my Moto X 2014 both running Lollipop.

iOS is always buttery smooth and while I enjoy the power and flexibility of Android FAR more than iOS it's hard not to get distracted by the occasional lag / hiccup that I've seen on every single Android device I've ever owned or tested.

I also find it annoying that Google doesn't seem to be able to focus on delivering a full user experience. For instance Android Wear let's you respond to test messages but you can't if your phone uses the default Messages app on the phone (I had to download Google's or almost any third party SMS application to do it). Such a flagship product with features being advertised that you can't use by default on most of their phones is just...dumb.

on_and_off4• 11 years ago

that everyone equates to Java and garbage collection It is a very complex problem and there I don't think it is possible to simply point at Java or GC as the culprits. It has more to do with how the platform architecture has been thought out and the lack of focus at that time on overall fluidity. The Sky experiment by the Dart team (so another GC language) shows a very interesting attempt at designing a runtime for 120 fps apps. The core idea of this project could very well be rewritten in Java.

A Murky Road Ahead for Android, Despite Market Dominance

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