Latin America Is Quitting Smoking, and Africa Is Taking It Up

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/latin-america-is-quitting-smoking-and-africa-is-taking-it-up/

69 61 11 years ago

leojg2• 11 years ago

I am Uruguayan and we have 3.3 millon habitants, not 2.7 :P

pacofvf• 11 years ago

in Mexico ten years ago cigarettes used to cost 14 pesos, very heavy taxing puts them now at 45 pesos, 3.2 times more, its target price for the next five years is 100 pesos, or ~7 USD with current exchange rate.

joshuapants6• 11 years ago

My first thought was to say "Ha, that's nothing, try $15 in New York." Then I decided to look at the average salary in Mexico (~$6000). Those are some very expensive cigarettes!

pandler• 11 years ago

They're even more expensive in New Zealand. Packs range from $15 to $20, or $40 for 30g of rolling tobacco. The government increases the tax on them every year.

GolfyMcG• 11 years ago

I'm curious why they didn't include the United States (or some other Western countries) as a reference point/baseline since FiveThirtyEight's audience, much like HackerNews, is probably mostly in Western countries...

iamcurious• 11 years ago

Just curious, do you consider Latin America western?

joshuapants6• 11 years ago

While a broad definition of "the West" would include Latin America (not just geographically, but also due to its European colonial history), it is common to view Latin America as a separate entity from "the West."

notnickwolf• 11 years ago

Perhaps the dualistic East/Western modes of viewing the world aren't enough.

GFK_of_xmaspast• 11 years ago

I would consider them part of the global south.

benologist2• 11 years ago

The table actually scrolls and includes many countries, on OS X I had to click on it before it would.

Australia is down -41%, although it may be an outlier because we have been a leader in making it hard to sell/market cigarettes, and they're very heavily taxed.

konstruktor• 11 years ago

But the South American nation of 2.7 million is currently embroiled in a battle with Philip Morris, which claims that legislation requiring 80 percent of cigarette packs to be covered with health warnings is devaluing its “legally-protected trademark and brand.”

From the Lean Startup methodology point of view, this is a big win, because Big Tobacco panicking validates Uruguay's strategy against smoking. All it takes is for more countries to follow suit.

ngoel36• 11 years ago

Is there evidence that this packaging works?

I don't smoke, and the warnings certainly scare me, but I always find myself in a foreign duty-free shop shoving myself through throngs of people carrying a tower of Malboro boxes - lung cancer seems to be the last thing on their mind.

hyperbovine• 11 years ago

There is evidence: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-19/australias-plain-packa.... Also, people who carry armloads of cigarettes out of duty free do not represent the marginal cases this law is targeting.

leojg2• 11 years ago

Uruguayan here. Personally, I think it works, most of people that I know dont smoke, and most of those who smoke are trying to quit it.

BTW: We are 3.3 not 2.7 :S

elevensies• 11 years ago

It can devalue the brand with or without having an effect on overall consumption, it will make their boxes look more similar to cheaper brands.

yodsanklai• 11 years ago

Once people are addicted, it's very hard for them to quit. Even after they saw relatives or friends dying from cancer. So I don't think the warnings work for them. Hopefully they prevent people (usually teenagers) from starting to smoke.

adrusi• 11 years ago

It's just one part of a larger educational campaign. The goal is to not let there be a time when people "forget", or more accurately choose to ignore, the health risks.

The warnings on the packaging are mostly targeted at non-smokers who might become smokers. If they decide to buy some cigarettes, they can't avoid being reminded of the long-term effects. If they buy them regardless, every time they pull out a cigarette they're reminded of what might happen should they develop a full addiction.

After a decade or two of lowered rates of new smokers, the population achieves a sort of critical mass of non-smokers that change the public attitude toward smoking. At this point banning smoking in public places, or increasing tobacco taxes, become politically tolerable.

zorked2• 11 years ago

Brazil has reduced smoking by 35% since 2000 using mandatory scary pictures in the packaging, restrictions on advertisement, restrictions on public smoking and mandatory minimal prices.

Whether packaging alone works, who knows. The combination of those policies is highly effective.

nnethercote• 11 years ago

The cigarette companies are fighting the plain-packaging laws tooth and nail, much harder than they have some of the other restrictions. They know that these laws have a real effect.

InclinedPlane• 11 years ago

How would you, anecdotally, notice a 25% decrease or increase in the prevalence of smoking in a country? I bet most people would have trouble noticing, even if they tried paying attention really well, and that's probably true even at a 50% change level. But that amount of change can be transformative from a business perspective.

What kills smoking as a cultural norm and destroys the tobacco business isn't everyone stopping smoking overnight due to ugly packaging. That's an overly simplistic and unrealistic scenario. But if packaging changes can result in a persistent decline in the prevalence of smoking that sort of change is still enormous. Being able to cut the prevalence of smoking in half over, say, 50 years? Still a pretty big deal. But it looks like these programs are actually far more effective.

simonebrunozzi• 11 years ago

Not that I disagree with you, or that I don't like your comment; however, I'd like to point out that the "lean startup" methodology was invented just a few years ago, based on many things that have been in existence for far longer, and that fighting a big tobacco company isn't necessary a "startup".

benologist2• 11 years ago

I've noticed this living in Costa Rica, I hardly ever see or walk past someone smoking anymore. When I first came here in 2006 it was everywhere including allowed in bars etc.

madsravn• 11 years ago

I am great fan of disallowing smoking inside public places. I can barely stand being near smoke: My throat just shuts down. So this is a great win for me :)

wtbob3• 11 years ago

It's remarkable to me how it's publicly acceptable to despise and loathe smokers and smoking. If you wrote 'I can barely stand being near black people,' you'd rightfully be cast out of polite society, but say, 'I think bars should be legally forced to ban smoking' and one is applauded.

Part of living in a free society is learning some tolerance: tolerance for other viewpoints; for other races; for other religions; for other cuisines; for other modes of dress; and yes, for other lifestyles.

mixmastamyk• 11 years ago

It's nice that California (at least southern) was a pioneer in this area. Whenever I'd have to travel it was like going back in time, to the bad old days. Was pleasantly surprised to see places as far as Rio de Janeiro recently ban it as well.

There's no excuse for it being legal in indoor public places, it's like having peeing/no-peeing sections in the pool.

It is one reason I couldn't live in Europe despite how nice it is... I remember having dinner at a cafe in winter in Germany once. Freezing outside and four smokers, four! at the table next to us. Oh and then there was the smoking couple in the frozen section of the supermarket in Portugal... nowhere to hide. Fuck you people. I suppose I should bring tear-gas and a gas mask next time.

matwood• 11 years ago

I've long joked that the French will single handedly keep the tobacco industry alive.

randyrand2• 11 years ago

Sure there is. Let Bars and other semi-public spaces decide for themselves if smoking is allowed. Maybe let the customers cast votes?

....similar to how it is done to marijuana right now.

Some will say "we tried this! and all the bars were smoking bars!" But they forget times have changed.

I can't see a reason not to allow at least 1 smoking bar in a given city. It would be really popular among the smokers.

dingaling• 11 years ago

Let Bars and other semi-public spaces decide for themselves if smoking is allowed.

However that directly impacts the health of staff who work there. In the UK that was one of the key factors in banning indoors smoking.

hkarthik• 11 years ago

There was a great John Oliver segment on the tobacco industry and how it's evolved to become even more profitable worldwide than it ever was in the US. Highly recommended to watch it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UsHHOCH4q8

slurry• 11 years ago

Are Africans smoking more because they have more disposable income? If so, this may be an encouraging trend, in a way.

soneca3• 11 years ago

Here in Brazil my personal view is that people are smoking much less, specially new generations. Ban smoking in all public indoors (clubs, restaurants, offices) or even kind-of-outdoors (no walls, but cover/roofs to protect from rain) has led me to a much healthier life.

Seriously, I spent some days a few years ago on a hostel on Barcelona where I just couldn't possibly be at the common room (where they served free dinner to socialize all the guests, a great idea btw). I couldn't survive the combination of a LOT of smokers and a low ceiling.

Smoking regulations - one of the very few society decisions I am very proud of in my country

PhantomGremlin• 11 years ago

What is the smoking situation on Brazilian domestic airline flights these days? Hopefully completely banned?

I visited Brazil in 1987. Back in those days international flights had a smoking section (usually at the back of the plane) and a non-smoking section. So of course the domestic carriers also did the same (TransBrasil in this case). But with a slight change: left side of plane was smoking, right side of plane was non-smoking. As Dave Barry would say: "I am not making this up!".

soneca3• 11 years ago

Lol long time ago. Since I can remember (I'm 35) smoking is banned from planes and airports.

randyrand2• 11 years ago

How popular is the opinion that people over the age of majority should make their own health decisions?

Latin America Is Quitting Smoking, and Africa Is Taking It Up

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