Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

http://www.teslacost.com/

by United857 • 12 years ago

132 162 12 years ago

teslacost.com

dandroid12• 12 years ago

What's with the article's font? Very annoying to read. Looks like a printer running out of ink.

atmosx• 12 years ago

Yeah, I agree. Extremely pure choice of <p> color, given the white background.

pokpokpok• 12 years ago

zoom you browser in 10% (ctrl+). i get this issue on a lot of personal blogs and this always fixes it to some degree

pyronite• 12 years ago

Are you running it in Chrome/Windows?

If so: Chrome's font rendering uses GDI rather than DirectWrite and it leads to some very ugly rendering with certain web fonts. This is a known issue and they are working on changing this: https://code.google.com/p/chromium/issues/detail?id=137692#c...

dandroid12• 12 years ago

Yup, I am. Thanks for the info.

pakile10• 12 years ago

Haha, thanks for pointing that out. I'll play around with it after dinner and try to find something less annoying.

zyang• 12 years ago

Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.

btian3• 12 years ago

Yes because an electric car lasts much longer than ICE ones

Shivetya2• 12 years ago

Not necessarily true. However the bigger concern is technology. The tech behind the batteries in a current generation Tesla will be probably one or two generations removed. Meaning, your going to get soaked on first generation buys.

Now Tesla does have swappable packs but the unknown is, how much will a replacement pack of second or third generation cost and will you be able to install it in the first generation car; I will assume you can.

The Tesla lower depreciation is factor of limited supply and the author is taking a mighty big bet that demand will remain as high as it is. Given Tesla's stated goals for manufacture and the models coming this is not a good bet.

Toss in that California may cap tax incentives to EVs costing 60k or less; I would push that to 40K or less. The rich should never have been given help to buy a car in a price range they already purchase in. This car certainly did not need the incentive.

njharman• 12 years ago

I might if we knew how long battery packs lasted and it was available now and not 7+ years from now when there'll be better cheaper options. So, I guess I agree. Optimistic.

arjunnarayan• 12 years ago

Well we know that Elon Musk has promised a buyback guarantee, indexed to the buyback cost of a similarly old Mercedes S class[1]. So that sets a floor on the depreciation value.

Also, as btian notes below, the electric drivetrain is also much simpler than a gasoline one, so it should be in much better shape relative to non-electric cars. I'm relatively optimistic because the part that depreciates the most is the battery: and if the rest of the car holds up well, then switching the battery at a lower cost (taking into account 8 years of battery tech advancement) should make for a pretty high resale value.

[1] http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/04/02/elon-mus...

jesusmichael16• 12 years ago

Electric motor fail on average on par with similarly serviced gas engines.

Failure of motor bearings is usually the result of improper mechanical installation causing undesirable forces acting on the bearings, or simply poor maintenance. Bearings should be inspected regularly for lubrication and uncharacteristic noises. Their life expectancy depends on factors previously cited. Most motor vendors typically recommend bearing replacement every two years, which I think will put a cramp in the Tesla maintenance scheme

What really is off-putting is that even if the car is well maintained and even parked. It will brick as from the degradation of the batteries. At some point the owner will have to invest in a new power pack. Not true of gas motors. I have a 66' galaxie in my driveway with its original motor its never had more than an oil and spark plug change and it has a life of nearly 50 years. I'd have bought at least 3 tesla power packs in the same time frame, even if the car just sat there.

lsc• 12 years ago

a 2006 base model Mercedes S class in 'very good' condition, with a hundred thousand miles on it, is like twelve grand, private-party value. (interestingly, a 2004 car is around six grand, both according to KBB)

I find it... unlikely that you will be able to sell a 2014 Tesla model S for $30K in 2022.

jesusmichael16• 12 years ago

Yes... I agree, there is a great deal of over estimation longevity of the drive systems and maintenance of the Tesla.

Electric motors are much less serviceable than gas engines at this point. There are still a lot of moving parts.

I think a tesla will lose value much faster than this person thinks as battery technology improves and the life of the existing battery pack declines.

alexkiritz2• 12 years ago

Model S battery packs can be upgraded in a few minutes at robotic service stations...

dave16192• 12 years ago

Tesla has promised the ability to swap out battery packs in the future. So, after 8 years the Model S should hold very good resale value because at that time you could probably swap in a 120+kwh battery (that goes 400+ miles). 30k residual value after 8 years on a well-options S 85kwh sounds about right IMO.

lafar6502• 12 years ago

10 year old Tesla will be considered an ancient, inefficient design nobody will want to buy. Cool factor will be long gone. There will be much better cars and prices will be significantly lower than Tesla's today.

dm25• 12 years ago

Part of the problem is that many people can't own an electric vehicle because neither their apartment/condo or work has a place to charge it.

You basically have to be a home owner in order to own an electric vehicle.

That's not an easy situation to solve either.

robmcm3• 12 years ago

I live in London and this is an issue that a lot of potential EV owners.

Having seen how the councils have added "club car" spaces for car rental schemes I could see them adding charge parking spaces, potentially with free electricity.

Hopefully this will be a non issue in a few years.

pakile10• 12 years ago

This is definitely an important factor in the model. The frame of mind I tried to use is, what would I pay today, in 2014, for a luxury car of Tesla caliber that is, say, Model Year 2006?

Then I took a few other things into account: - Quantitatively, given the paucity of data on Model S resales (I've looked at this and I think prices are high because supply is low), what does depreciation history on the Roadster imply for the Model S looking forward? - Qualitatively, what is the impact of a battery swap say 8 or 10 years down the line, if the cost of the battery is approximately $12K (based on Tesla's earlier comments and the Roadster battery swap program) or less (if the Gigafactory succeeds)?

lttlrck2• 12 years ago

What range did your imagined 2006 model have?

Danieru• 12 years ago

I was curious about the RAV4 EV comment so some googling turned up this: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/throwing-money-at-elect...

dm25• 12 years ago

Wow, why are the big automotive companies so bad at making a good looking electric vehicle? Or are we just spoiled with the looks of the Model S?

From the article you linked to: "GM is reportedly losing more than $40,000 on each Volt" WHAT?

mikeash11• 12 years ago

Also, "Not even Tesla has made money from building its slick Model S." Smells like funny accounting.

robterrell• 12 years ago

The RAV4 EV is Toyota's California compliance car -- that is to say, in the state of CA, any auto manufacturer must sell a certain % of their sales as zero emission cars. For Toyota, that meant 2300 or so cars. They ended up putting a RAV4 body/interior on top of Tesla-sourced frame, motor and battery back: the $50k RAV4 EV.

It's been a lousy seller. Toyota only sold 26 vehicles in December, so they've got huge incentives. Currently the incentive is $16,000 IIRC. You can lease the RAV4 EV for $299 per month with $3500 due at signing.

I drive a Fiat 500e, which is a fantastic electric car ($199 lease!) but anytime I'm loading up kids and groceries I wish I had one of those cheap pseudo Teslas.

bsilvereagle4• 12 years ago

Does anyone know why the Net Present Value in the cash flow model is so much different?

Depreciation Model: $39,889 Cash Flow Model: $62,874

pakile10• 12 years ago

Travis (who forked my model to create the cash flow model) and I chatted about this. It's primarily due to the effect of time value on money, when you finance the car. If you were to purchase the car outright, you would want to use the 1st tab; vs. financing, the 2nd tab.

bsilvereagle4• 12 years ago

Ah I missed that payments were being made on a loan, thanks for clarifying that.

yalogin• 12 years ago

Can some one explain NPV to me? This is the first I am hearing of this term and wikipedia does not offer an explanation that is intuitive enough. Its odd that the NPV is listed as $40K+ when the actual cost of the car is $90K+.

dm25• 12 years ago

https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-fi...

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/what-is-net-present-v...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jylJ2r9bklE

jellicle• 12 years ago

Net present value is a way of measuring future flows of money and comparing them to each other. For instance, which is worth more:

- Getting $100 now

- Getting $200 3 years from now

The answer is, "it depends on your assumptions about interest rates".

In the blog poster's spreadsheet, the "net" line is the cost of owning that car in that year in that year's dollars. The PV is the cost of owning that car in that year in THIS year's dollars (a figure obviously depending on assumptions about interest rates). The NPV line is the cost of owning that car for 8 years in this year's dollars.

superprime• 12 years ago

The underlying idea is that a dollar today is worth more to you than a dollar tomorrow (all else equal).

The NPV is how much a thing is worth/costs now after taking that into account and discounting future cashflows appropriately.

natural219• 12 years ago

I have also ran similar calculations in my head. I think what I'd want to be convinced is a thorough analysis from a mechanical/industrial engineer on how much you can expect to save from a fully electric car on maintenance. The claim I've heard from Tesla is that, since there are much fewer moving parts within an electric motor, the car will last substantially longer. While this makes intuitive sense, I would love to see a breakdown of the actual numbers. Gas savings are pretty easy to calculate.

That said, there is one more factor I had considered, for fun. If Tesla continues to deliver more cars and eventually electric cars dominate the new car market in 5-10 years, I would imagine the Model S would be worth an investment as a "classic" car. If you maintained it well, I wonder if the actual value of the car would have a chance of appreciating at a much higher rate past, say, 50 years.

jesusmichael16• 12 years ago

The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy that electric car proponents have been spreading for years. There are still many, moving parts which require servicing and can fail at a rate of similarly serviced gas engines. In fact servicing (rewinding) is quite a labor intensive and expensive operation, given the price of copper or other conductive material used in the construction of electric motor.

Should a motor fail. The cost is significant.

I like the idea of an electric car, but the truth is the motors do fail. They require maintenance in the static environment of a factory or they will fail, a car on the open road with harsh environmental factors it will be hard on them.

But the biggest lie about electric car maintenance is that is lower. Its not. 90% of a vehicle's maintenance has nothing to do with its motor. It's tires, brakes, lighting, lubricants(yes electric motors need oil changes too), and power systems. Which I suspect will be more extensive here since there will be countless OS upgrades to both the drive systems and the power control units.

Its not possible at this time to compare gas engine maintenance w/ electric motor maintenance because its not apples to apples. You can however look at replacement cost as an indication of serviceability. A 400hp electric motor costs about $24,000 vs. a 400hp gas engine at about $6000.

The gas engine is still far more economical at this point even factoring in fuel costs.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

Tesla doesn't seem to think their motors require oil changes. Are you saying that they're just letting their owners destroy the motors by going without necessary maintenance?

Also, do you have a source on the $24,000 for their motor? That seems awfully high given that the thing is about the size of a loaf of bread. Hard to see what could make it so expensive.

jesusmichael16• 12 years ago

My source is an industrial electric motor supplier. Google "400hp electric motor"

I'm not saying tesla's require oil changes as a gas engine does... oil will last quite a long time when not contaminated by hydrocarbons.

But even sealed bearings need to be repacked after so much wear. To parts can't move against on another without generating heat, which will degrade a lubricant and allow wear.

pravda3• 12 years ago

400hp electric motor costs about $24,000 vs. a 400hp gas engine at about $6000.

You think the motor in the Telsa costs 24 large? I'd say you are off by an order of magnitude.

What are the big-ticket repair items on an gas car? The engine and the transmission. Electric motors are maintenance-free, and the Telsa doesn't have a transmission. Also, there is minimal vibration and heat compared to a gas engine.

I would guess maintenance costs on an electric car are 1/4th of a gas car. Except the battery pack, of course. That will eventually need to be replaced.

sergiosgc2• 12 years ago

Here's a perfectly written comment, downvoted. I don't agree with the conclusion, I question several of the premises, but I can't understand downvoting based on agreement. The comment is good, well written, and adds to the discussion. It should be upvoted.

Are there voting guidelines for HN? Am I in the wrong here?

mehrdada• 12 years ago

yes electric motors need oil changes too

"Oil change" for an electric motor is fundamentally nothing like the oil change you do for an internal combustion engine. A piston engine operates at much higher temperatures, and cannot fully isolate leakage from oil compartment, causing a tiny amount of oil to get burned with fuel as it operates.

"Oil change" in an electric motor is much more like lubricating other moving parts of the car or other machinery, not the engine of a gasoline car.

In addition to that, an electric car (at least the Model S), is much much simpler in design. The motor is basically connected directly to the wheels, removing a ton of parts in the process. It's simpler to start and simpler to cool. Yes, it can still break, but it's much more similar to your hard drive failing than your traditional car.

bsilvereagle4• 12 years ago

fewer moving parts

I think auto makers use this to distract potential buyers from what's really going to be replaced: the battery.

Just like laptop batteries, the charge life of the car battery is going to decrease with time.

Tesla did have this on their website, but the link this is quoted from is broken:

"A Battery Replacement Option will be available for purchase soon. The option allows you to pre-purchase a new battery to be installed after eight years for a fixed price: $8,000 for 40 kWh batteries, $10,000 for 60 kWh batteries, and $12,000 for 85 kWh batteries."

http://www.teslamotors.com/it_IT/forum/forums/battery-replac...

bsdetector• 12 years ago

The $12k battery placement cost is not included in the spreadsheet, not to mention that this is the cost if purchased 8 years ahead of time and purchasing it later will probably be more expensive.

He's already bought the car and so he should know how his insurance cost has changed, but doesn't mention how much it changed.

The model also does not include property tax. I'm assuming California has a car property tax of some kind.

...so basically this is justifying his purchase to himself, little more than that.

001sky3• 12 years ago

The spreadsheet seems light on maintenance numbers. The car is sold in year 8 but hasn't been serviced in several years previous (seems odd). Most people correct for this come the residual. Also, the tires on this car wear out quickly. 120k miles would see at least 6x sets of tires in the back (some are going in under 10k miles), and likely 4 in the front (20x$400=8,000). Also, the Battery is expensive and shoudl be replaced around 100K most likely ($8,000+). These costs would be substantial in total, but the author also forgets Insurance. We've seen Tesla re-design the underbody most likely for insurance rather than pure safety reasons. This is likely ($15-20K) of omitted cost. Lastly, brakes are typically replaced @ 30K miles and on a car of this caliber would be ($4,000) over this timeframe. That is another $40,000 out of pocket on the back of a napkin. It could be more or less, but the spreadsheet shows <$4,000 which seems off by an order of magnitude.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

Tesla brakes last practically forever because they're almost never used. Regenerative braking is used for normal driving and the mechanical brakes are just there for hard braking, emergencies, and possibly at very low speeds. So I think you can take that back out of your numbers. Leaving out insurance seems really bizarre though.

pakile10• 12 years ago

Tesla offers the option to purchase 4y of maintenance for $1900, which I included in the model, vs. $600/yr. The options are nearly economical neutral, but I plan to do at least the 1st 4y option. Maintenance also includes brake pad replacement.

I did not include tires or insurance - either for the Tesla or for the other vehicles (Ody, BMW, Volvo). I also didn't include the financial value of safety (though Travis attempted to on the cash flow model), HOV lane access, cargo space, etc.

On the battery, based on the research I've read from existing EV owners, and from my experience as an EV owner for 3y, I'm expecting around 85% of my battery to be available in 8-10y. If a battery swap option is available, I plan to do it around year 15 or so (i.e., ~2030).

ams6110• 12 years ago

His use case for the Odyssey must be atypical from what I've seen, that is, it's used mostly for short local trips. What most people I know use their minivans for is that, plus family road trips. Not really an option with the Tesla.

pakile10• 12 years ago

Feel free to play with the annual mileage figures on the model. For my family's situation, I played around with it with mostly either 12K or 15K annual miles.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

There are a fair number of people who don't do road trips. It's not a universal thing.

For those who do, how often do they take them? If it's a once-a-year thing, you can rent something more suitable for fairly low cost. I see a lot of people basing their car buying decisions on activities they do once or twice a year and it puzzles me.

Finally, not all road trips are created equal. If you're regularly driving across Montana, the Tesla is probably not for you. For me, where my road trips consist of occasional trips from DC to NYC or Virginia Beach, the supercharger network means the Tesla would be fine.

dave16192• 12 years ago

To help some understand why the Model S could be "cheaper" to own vs a Honda Odyssey it's important to understand a few factors:

1. Low fuel costs - electricity is way cheaper than gas and when you factor in gas savings over 8 years, you get substantial savings (ie., $20k over 8 years if driving 15k miles a year, of course depends on gas prices and electricity prices).

2. Low maintenance costs - there's no oil changes, timing belt, etc. It's basically tires. Even brakes you don't need to change often because of regenerative braking.

3. High residual value due to upgradeability - the battery pack is swappable, so after 8 years (or longer) you can swap out battery packs to a bigger pack (ie., 400+ mile range). This is a great feature and will add residual value to the Model S. Also, over-the-air updates keeps the software always up to date.

4. High residual value due to battery pack - the battery pack for the Model S is holding up well with customers so far, and after 8 years it should show minimal degradation (ie., 10-15% likely, max 20%). In other words, the battery will still hold substantial value and when a person buys a 8-year-old Model S in the future, they are not only buying the car but they are buying the battery pack (ie., fuel savings) as well. This is why the residual value of a Model S (or another EV with a large battery pack) will be substantially higher than a comparable ICE car.

jusben1369• 12 years ago

How much is a replacement battery?

EDIT: found the answer below. Seems like that contradicts your post a little.

bsilvereagle4• 12 years ago

http://www.teslamotors.com/it_IT/forum/forums/battery-replac...

Meekro• 12 years ago

I've heard the "low maintenance costs" point made often by Tesla themselves, but based on my research from their website it doesn't hold up. Tesla encourages you to buy their $600 a year service inspections[1], and their $1,000 a year extended service agreement. And God forbid anything breaks outside of the warranty, because you'll be in for some costly repairs[2].

[1] http://www.teslamotors.com/service

[2] http://insideevs.com/dont-wreck-your-tesla-model-s-because-r...

brc• 12 years ago

It's wrong to think that the majority of service costs as vehicles age is in the engine and oil changes. Most new cars engines/tranmsmissions will go very large distances with no mechanical failure if serviced properly. Exceptions exist, but for the most part, engines are durable and have minimal service requirements.

Cars must have suspension replacements, plus fixed for lots of little car systems that can start failing with age. An example is windscreen washer systems. Usually required for safety inspections, they can stop working, and it's expensive to remove and replace them because they wind their way around multiple components. Same for hvac systems and lighting systems and on it goes.

I bring this up because the worth of a tesla will not just hinge on the ability to fit a new battery pack and go. It will also hinge of the ability of the basic vehicle and non-propulsion systems to continue to work and become economically serviceable. Most cars can get a substantial mechanical refresh for the current cost of a new tesla battery - but this is not usually done because the car itself develops many other failings and a new one is faster and easier to purchase.

So the resale value will swing on not only the battery replacement cost, but may other things besides. Only then will we know what the used value looks like.

bradleyland• 12 years ago

I think the parent poster is making an "all things being equal" comparison, where all of the things you mentioned should be equal when comparing to a car with an ICE.

For example, both the Tesla Model S and a Honda Oyssey will, presumably, require suspension replacement after a similar term when driven on the same roads by the same person. Likewise for windscreen washers and other sub-systems. Given the level of engineering and attention to detail in the design of the Model S, we should expect these systems to be of equal or greater quality than their traditional motorcar equivalents.

The point is that it appears the EV components won't negatively impact residual value as many EV-naysayers have been touting all along. "Just wait till that expensive battery pack only takes half a charge in 3 years!" That's the kind of sentiment that the parent poster was refuting.

vl• 12 years ago

Re: 3 & 4

Or, battery packs will degrade and people would not value them at all.

And, more importantly it's very unlikely that Model S will hold any residual at all, especially in 8 years - it's essentially version 1 of technology (with Roadster being beta version). In 8 years Tesla itself will have version 3, or may be even 4, and version 1 will be just obsolete. Notice how people buy new Camrys instead of 8 year-old 740s.

bpowah• 12 years ago

I don't understand how the '14 model S is "AWD equivalent".

pakile10• 12 years ago

Scroll down to "Cold Weather Performance" on this page:

http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features#/performance

I forgot to write about this on www.teslacost.com, but one reason I didn't consider the Model S early on is b/c it's RWD and I wanted AWD for Tahoe and the like. Then I saw the above video.

mikegreen• 12 years ago

There is no way a car with only the ability to power the rear wheels can compare to an AWD drivetrain.

Even with the ability to pulse/modulate the brakes and keep the car from spinning, it will only prevent sliding off a cliff by taking you around that corner at 8mph (notional absurdly low speed here). That is because it will only be able to use the braking + lateral portion of the front tires available grip. If there is no need for braking, just lateral grip which isn't going to be much on a poor snowy road, anyhow. The rear tires have to work doubly as hard in this scenario as well - they have to maintain lateral grip while accelerating (or simply putting power down enough to maintain speed).

A true AWD (or 4x4) would be able to use the acceleration and lateral grip, meaning, the tire can be accelerating and turning. This takes the load off the rear wheels for putting down engine power. Thus, to move at the same speed, the rear tires only have to use much less of their available grip for acceleration and can concentrate on lateral grip (not fishtailing/oversteer situation as above RWD would). An intelligent AWD system will transfer power to whatever wheel has the most grip as well.

bri3d2• 12 years ago

You need to factor a set of good winter tires in the Tesla sizes into your cost model, then.

The stock tires on the Tesla and even most all-season options are woefully insufficient to make the Tesla safe in the snow, although its favorable weight distribution vs. other RWD cars does help some.

plg3• 12 years ago

What about ruggedness? Up here in (eastern) Canada we have stretches of weeks even months where the temp doesn't go above ... 10F? 15F? (-10 to -15 C) and frequently goes down to -20C or lower (below zero F). How does this affect battery range? Also I don't live in a big city, so who in the hell do I call when there's something wrong with my Tesla and how long do I wait?

plg3• 12 years ago

also NPV is nice and all, but if you have $5k for a downpayment and you need to finance the rest, there aren't many people who can afford a $95k car loan. Not to mention the interest cost.

Hey don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is the future and I would love to own one... but it seems like a "not ready yet" proposition

jamesaguilar7• 12 years ago

I think he's taking as given that he can afford the car. Which is fine, if he can afford the car. A decision model is not necessarily meant for all possible audiences. Sometimes it's particular to a person in a particular situation.

erikstarck• 12 years ago

If it's good enough for Norway it should work in Canada too, right? Well, one in every ten cars sold (10.8%) in Norway in March was a Tesla... http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/04/7-tesla-norway-facts-wil...

vacri3• 12 years ago

Canada is a "Big Country" nation, and Norway isn't. Short or shortening range will have less of an effect on purchaser decisions.

rz2k• 12 years ago

It will do pretty bad sitting if it is left out in the cold for a long time without being plugged in. As I understand it, it must heat its batteries to keep them from freezing, and if this power use completely runs down the battery or it freezes it has to be replaced at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars.

sgustard• 12 years ago

TLDR:

Tesla P85 $44,948

Honda Odyssey $56,094

joezydeco3• 12 years ago

Out of curiosity - what does it cost to have an electrician install a 240VAC outlet in your garage? Has anyone out there done it and can give an idea?

Teslas can charge off a 110 outlet, but they recommend using the 240 volt faster-charging unit. But most houses don't run 2-phase power out to the garage.

And what if you don't own a house? What do apartment and/or house renters do for charging?

techsupporter• 12 years ago

My electrician in the Seattle area quoted me $700, including parts and permit, to install a weather-shielded 240V outlet with separate breaker on the outside of my house directly above the electric meter, next to where a car is parked, and on the opposite side of the wall where my breaker panel lives for another purpose. (I don't have a garage so it would have to go outside if I did want to charge a car.) The cost probably goes up another hour of time if a person wants something like this and the breaker panel isn't also located in the garage since wire will need to be pulled.

Apartment dwellers and renters of houses are going to be charging from 120V stations. Considering the uproar just over satellite dishes, I can't see landlords being any more forgiving about tapping into the electrical system of a unit. (And I write this as a former long-time renter.)

oasisbob• 12 years ago

For what it's worth, at least renters have some protection from the FCC (on paper, at least) when it comes to antennas:

"The OTARD rule allows local governments, community associations and landlords to enforce restrictions that do not impair the installation, maintenance or use of the types of antennas described above [...]"

http://www.neighborhoodlink.com/article/Association/FCC_Sate...

Given that many areas mandate minimum parking requirements for development, I don't find it too hard to imagine the same for charging. (And as a long-term renter, I'm sure it'll still be a pain in the ass for years to come.)

secabeen• 12 years ago

$700 sounds about right. You'll want to add another $5-700 or so for the service equipment, but that's about it. Generally, permanent outdoor installations should be hard-wired in, rather than using a weather-shielded outlet.

scragg• 12 years ago

Cost me $125

dror• 12 years ago

The Model S was highly rated by Consumer Reports, but the predicted reliability is only average. Specifically, the 2013 had a much worse than average rating for Squeaks and Rattles and Body Hardware. This will certainly affect the price. Personally, I never buy a car unless it's rated better than average by CR.

pkaye• 12 years ago

If electric cars are already a good deal do we still need to have tax incentives?

tomschlick• 12 years ago

I'd say so. It provides long term benefit to the society as a whole if larger numbers of these cars are purchased (less emissions, lower demand for gas, better safety, raises the bar for other manufacturers, etc)

electriclove3• 12 years ago

Your Net values for the Ody Touring Elite don't add up.

How is the Net for Year 1 for the Ody Elite $16,184? It lists Maintenance at $300, Fuel at $2727, and Depreciation at $10,500. That totals $13,527.

pakile10• 12 years ago

Good eye, electriclove - there was an error in the spreadsheet that was adding in fuel costs from another row. I updated the spreadsheet. It results in a pretty big change. I'm going to update the website.

electriclove3• 12 years ago

Thanks for replying and looking into it!

roel_v• 12 years ago

Well the core insight is in there, but it's not highlighted enough:

"The model is very sensitive to the rate of depreciation."

Every TCO model for cars is very sensitive to rate of depreciation, and this rate is very hard to predict. You can rely on historical data only so much - how much in demand will petrol cars be 8 years from now? Diesel? What kind of tax incentives will we get over the next few years? And a single percent difference in depreciation rate can put one car ahead of another.

Within the last 10% or so, it's a crap shoot. And 10% basically puts all cars in the same class within a single bucket. So yeah.

marknutter• 12 years ago

Did he factor in the cost of replacing the batteries eventually? Something like $10k.

D_Alex5• 12 years ago

The model seems flawed. The financing/opportunity costs are not included (AFAICT...). A better way to construct the model would be to avoid trying to account for year-by-year depreciation, and only include the initial purchase cost and eventual sale cost in the cash flow.

Unfortunately (you might be able to tell I'm a Tesla fan), this makes the Tesla S less attractive in comparison to other cars due to its higher up-front price.

loceng• 12 years ago

They're target market initially is those with cash / who can afford it upfront, though they do offer leasing.

Once they have the $30k version then it will be attractive to most everyone, including with leasing options.

pakile10• 12 years ago

Your proposal is essentially what my friend, Travis, did on the 2nd tab of the worksheet, which is a cash flow model.

mintykeen• 12 years ago

I think it's priceless to be able to look your kids in the eyes and say we bought a car for our family that helps make the planet better for you when you grow up. And supporting a company that is trying to do that is well worth spending more.

harmegido• 12 years ago

If it makes you feel better, then great. But realize that any amount of individual actions isn't going to make a difference. We need action taken by governments.

chrisBob2• 12 years ago

The Model S is a great deal compared to similar cars, but this list is just silly. He is an economist that just goes through and picks the highest trim level of 9 different cars, and then decides to compare them based solely on cost to the Model S.

I contend that a $22,195 Subaru would win this contest hands down. If you want this comparison to be believable compare like vehicles. Don't just compare the car you want to theMostExpensiveHondaICouldSpecOut.

pakile10• 12 years ago

I'm the author of this website/article, and I have an important update. I added this Epilogue to the website tonight:

I created this website two days ago, and during that time, have witnessed 100s of comments on Hacker News, TMC, Twitter, and more. In the middle of all that, electriclove on Hacker News found an important bug in the model: The Ody PV line was adding in fuel costs from another car. (This, IMHO, highlights how valuable the Internet is for discourse and fact checking.)

I updated the model and the result is as follows: - Tesla Model S: $40,151 - Honda Odyssey: $37,235

The end result is greater parity between the depreciation and cash flow models; and the edge goes to the Honda Odyssey by $3K, or about $375/yr over eight years. If I had more time, I might try to quantify the value of the safety edge for the Tesla (Travis calculated this to be about $500/yr), HOV lane access, or other features. In the meantime, I double-checked the formulas on the other cars - they appear to be correct. However, I continue to invite folks to continue to look at and provide feedback on the model.

bironology• 12 years ago

what the heck is the PAX column? Feeling stupid, never heard of that, and Googling doesn't help.

Pax tires? as in run-flats?

electriclove3• 12 years ago

PAX = Passengers

Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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