D_Alex

Policies include building one affordable house.

Mine too.

Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list.

"Putin's list" is a dishonest meme, just like the "rules-based international order" that the Western nations supposedly embrace.

There is no such list, and there are no such rules. There is only deceitful propaganda used to justify geopolitical ambitions. Don't spread it.

It means have fun, be adventurous, bend the rules a little bit.

Did you feel safe, growing up?

And what lesson should be drawn from that?

They'd need to sell a sub to everyone in Europe and North America.

Yep. Every man, woman and child, and even then provided we include Russia, Mexico, Cuba, Haiti etc, and, out of desperation to get to 1.5 billion, Turkey, which is in Europe a little.

That's all true... however the point that Google will get just $1 billion per year from Apple for the AI service is still insightful.

If AI use via Apple represents 10% of the total that vaguely implies that the total AI market is worth around $10 billion per year (which admittedly seems a bit low), and if it is just 1% (which also seems low) then we get $100 billion per year upper-end estimate.

Which just is not enough to justify the current valuations of AI companies.

Seems like the simplest test would be to see if an AI can refuse a command, of its own free will

Certainly not the simplest test, since settling the concept of "free will" is really very difficult.

I also think different ideas get conflated.

Yep. For example, your post conflates the idea of having a brain with the idea of having consciousness.

I think you either added an extra zero or were looking at the hyped prototypes

I thought I was clear where I was looking - here, you may check for yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136.

Iran would have to respond and thus would have to try to find a way to inflict ‘pain’ on the United States to force the United States to back off. But whereas Israel is in reach of some Iranian weapons, the United States is not.

This is too complacent for my liking. Every rusty trawler is a viable launch platform for Shahed type drones (operational range ~2500 km per Wikipedia). Nearly every US oil refinery and LNG terminal are on the coast. And then there are floating oil platforms (e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perdido_(oil_platform))

The article then says:

One can never know how well prepared an enemy is for something.

And:

And if I can reason this out, Iran – which has been planning for this exact thing for forty years certainly can.

I'll leave it here for y'all to ponder.

2022 was abnormally high, caused largely by the disruption of gas supplies to Western Europe after sanctions on Russian gas and the destruction of the Nordstream gas pipeline.

Yes, it is nothing like 2022 yet. But the concerning thing is that this may be just a beginning of a protracted event, plus the world, and especially Western Europe, is less resilient today to the disruptions in gas supply.

I'm a bit underwhelmed tbh. Here is Anthropic's motto:

"At Anthropic, we build AI to serve humanity’s long-term well-being."

Why does Anthropic even deal with the Department of @#$%ing WAR?

And what does Amodei mean by "defeat" in his first paragraph?

It's not as safe as flying

In France and Japan, HSR has had zero fatalities in the entire period of operation.

In China, HSR had AFAIR one fatal crash, with 40 fatalities. Per passenger-mile, Chinese HSR is twice as safe as US air travel.

Imagine if Jensen Huang started meeting Xi Jinping to seek help for carrying out political change in the US.

What then?

This ascribes an agency to capitalism that doesn’t exist.

You may find this marvelous piece enlightening:

https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

Ramstein is like 400 km from the sea, Munich is 800 km.

I am puzzled that the alleged ship-launched drone swarms were allegedly able to penetrate this far undetected.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-launch-new-phase-v...

How about now?

Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Türkiye all host U.S. nuclear weapons.

Incidentally, US nukes in Turkey in 1960s was the starting point of the Cuban missile crisis.

https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals

Prusa generally has better print quality

Only if you compare Prusa printing at 50 mm/s with Bambu at 500 mm/s.

and better overhang performance

What? No. Proof: https://youtu.be/HcSOz-Lsxgg?feature=shared&t=293

Prusa drives the slicer development ecosystem (Bambu Studio is a fork)

Prusa slicer is also a fork ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you're an American and don't know what it's like to have your country and culture reduced to about three wildly inaccurate stereotypes...

...you can watch Borat, which is far less about Kazakhstan than it is about the US.

Yes it does. Consider too that after kerosene whaling declined while world population, wealth and demand for lighting grew rapidly.

Also, kerosene for lanterns became a thing in 1846, not 1865 as claimed in the article, and by 1856 was already widespread. Wikipedia has this to say about its impact:

As kerosene production increased, whaling declined. The American whaling fleet, which had been steadily growing for 50 years, reached its all-time peak of 199 ships in 1858. By 1860, just two years later, the fleet had dropped to 167 ships. The Civil War cut into American whaling temporarily, but only 105 whaling ships returned to sea in 1866, the first full year of peace, and that number dwindled until only 39 American ships set out to hunt whales in 1876.[36] Kerosene, made first from coal and oil shale, then from petroleum, had largely taken over whaling's lucrative market in lamp oil.

The really big problem in open source intelligence has been for some time that data to support just about anything can be found. OSINT investigations start with a premise, look for data that supports the premise and rarely look for data that contradicts it.

Sometimes this is just sloppy methodology. Other times it is intentional.

Ooh, I love pedantry contests!

Let's go back to your opening comment which was something like "I thought methane was 80% hydrogen on a molar basis". Methane does not contain H2 molecules, it contains 4 atoms of hydrogen. Plus one atom of carbon, which would indeed make it 80% hydrogen on a molar basis.

If that does not convince you: note also that atomic carbon is also a very unstable, and will auto polymerize into one of its allotropes (eg. C60 - buckyballs). And yet we count carbon by the atom.

"Molar" refers to a number of elementary entities, which could be atoms or molecules or w/e. So yes, if you are counting moles of H2 gas, but not if you are counting atoms...

Chemical weapons are tactically useless for modern militaries

The defense of Azovstal steelworks and Gaza tunnels seems to show otherwise.

You are entirely correct.

No, that is not right. The correct answer is "it depends", but let's run some indicative numbers on data for Boston:

On average and excluding the minority of routes with dedicated lanes (which may be best run on diesel), the Boston metro buses are in use for 6.6 hours per day, covering on average 53 miles.

A full size electric bus uses electricity at a rate of approx 2 kWhr/mile.

So, on average the bus would have around 17 hours to charge up with 106 kWhrs of juice, and this averages out to about 6.2 kW. On average.

However, the smart thing to do would be to charge the buses when the power costs the least, say between 10 pm and 8 am, so you'd need ~10 kW/bus, maybe ~1MW for the 100 bus fleet. Not difficult.

"Blue hydrogen" is commonly used for hydrogen produced from natural gas. If it is produced by steam reforming (most common), then the associated CO2 emissions are worse than if you just burn the natural gas directly.

"Green hydrogen" is usually hydrogen produced from water by electrolysis, using electricity from non-CO2 source, e.g. wind or electricity.