Winklevoss twin says Bitcoin valuation will top $40k

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/12/15/winklevoss-twin-says-bitcoin-valuation-will-top-40k-plays-down-silk-road-closure/#!pZeI0

by ibsathish • 13 years ago

37 51 13 years ago

thenextweb.com

cstrat6• 13 years ago

In other news, the majority shareholder in <insert company here> says their share price will sky rocket by 300% in the next six months... you should buy shares immediately.

Since the twins are so heavily invested, there is no way they would ever support any evidence contrary to the title of this post...

damian2000• 13 years ago

I think they own about 1% - a fair bit less than Satoshi Nakamoto, but yeah agreed on your point ... totally useless story.

cstrat6• 13 years ago

"Winklevoss twin says value of Bitcoin will remain stable and find its place as a useful form of currency in the current global marketplace" ... said no Winklevii ever..

tagawa• 13 years ago

They're also trying to launch a fund - Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust [1] - so they're (potentially) more invested in Bitcoin than what they directly own.

[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23140904

jacques_chester• 13 years ago

This behaviour is known as "talking one's book".

semmem1• 13 years ago

This should really be made illegal. Some poor soul is going to think they are serious and actually put money into it. The Winklevoss are barely a step above Madoff here.

gmays• 13 years ago

Never trust a doppelgänger.

klochner• 13 years ago

To put things in perspective: taking the (presumably) wildly optimistic forecast of the Wilklevii, the total future bitcoin appreciation will be approximately equal to the year-to-date performance.

So in an optimistic scenario, the bulk of any appreciation is behind us, and the fortunes made to-date won't be made by the current batch of speculators.

sillysaurus22• 13 years ago

I don't understand. If Bitcoin appreciates to $40k like the Winklebosses are saying, then I stand to 40x my money. How does that equal the year to date performance, or mean that the bulk of the appreciation is behind us?

(I think appreciation to $40k is delusional, but that's what they're claiming.)

exit2• 13 years ago

according to this wikipedia article, the price in december 2012 was $13:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Bitcoin#Prices_and_v...

the average today is $827, 827 / 13 = 63.6153846154

jds375• 13 years ago

Definitely true, although I do believe they've been invested in bitcoins for quite a while now and have profited big time from the recent bitcoin boom.

javert2• 13 years ago

the fortunes made to-date won't be made by the current batch of speculators

Yes they will. Under what you're saying, if earlier speculators made 40x then those who get in now also make 40x.

cstrat6• 13 years ago

I am pretty confident that stuff like this does more harm to the bitcoin community than good. It further encourages anyone remotely involved to sit on their coins and not use them.

The only way something like bitcoin can flourish is if the majority of users are spending them (trading them)... if 90% of people buy bitcoin in the hope they will go to $40K then they are supporting all the things that the naysayers are claiming (ponzi scheme and what not).

natrius• 13 years ago

This isn't true. If it becomes easier to spend bitcoins than dollars, why wouldn't you just spend bitcoins and convert your earnings to bitcoins as they come in?

The problem with Bitcoin isn't so much the price volatility. It's that spending them is difficult. That is changing rapidly. If a merchant offers a bitcoin discount that reflects the lower costs of doing business with Bitcoin, why wouldn't consumers spend them?

cstrat6• 13 years ago

i agree with you in principle, however i still think there is a flawed economy behind all this.

as long as i have $$$ and can spend them, why would I used BTC if the value of BTC is going up X% each month... I am better off using fiat. at a purely commercial level, it makes sense to buy bitcoins for capital gains, and use $$$ for life.

ekianjo6• 13 years ago

I don't agree. Optimistic view on bitcoin -> Media Attention -> User Attention -> Bitcoin value goes up -> User Pool Increase -> Merchants' attention increase -> more merchant support, resulting in more utility for bitcoin and more confidence in the viability of the currency.

Of course, I'm simplifying stuff on purpose here, but more people talking about Bitcoin in a positive light is good for Bitcoin. Apart from the valuation they throw in here, them investing in Bitcoin will breed further options on the market.

cstrat6• 13 years ago

it is true that more attention is good, however it is getting attention for the wrong reasons. It isn't getting attention because people are using bitcoin as a currency, rather an investment hoping for the capital gains.

I have seen countless threads on forums where people are saying they accept bitcoin and are surprised that no one has used BTC yet. I'm confident at using bitcoins, but it makes more sense to just pay for something with cash if I have it... obviously if there were some incentive to use BTC (discount or whatnot) I might reconsider.

eru• 13 years ago

Every buyer needs a seller. So if this encourages people to buy, there will be sellers.

And in any case, this claim won't really do much to increase bitcoin valuations. Perhaps rather the opposite, given the source.

javert2• 13 years ago

To help bitcoin, people need to spend bitcoins and hold onto bitcoins.

So you are presenting a false dichotomy.

I can spend bitcoins by buying them and spending them, without decreasing my actual long-term bitcoin investment.

enko• 13 years ago

Winklevoss twin hopes Bitcoin valuation will top $40k

FTFY

logn2• 13 years ago

Bank of America's analysis of price made a lot of sense to me, and to the best extent possible, they justified their valuation ($1300 max). This is just mindless speculation like CNBC saying BUY BUY.

ekianjo6• 13 years ago

Justified the 1300 value how ? They have no real method to get to that number.

logn2• 13 years ago

You can read it here:

http://cryptome.org/2013/12/boa-bitcoin.pdf

They look at comparables such as gold, silver, PayPal market cap, etc and then deduced where BTC would fit in.

KaoruAoiShiho• 13 years ago

You should try reading it... It's actually very well thought out.

fragsworth• 13 years ago

It poses a real threat to the speculation value currently hoarded in Gold. It is not unreasonable to expect bitcoins to eventually replace a substantial part of that value.

Tenoke• 13 years ago

I am sorry buy BOA's analysis was just as much mindless speculation as the comments by the Winklevii (if not more)..

repsilat2• 13 years ago

Isn't the price (softly) bounded above by the mining cost? I guess there's a demand/supply time-lag.

No, wait, I think I get it:

1. Lots of demand. Price spikes.

2. Supply increases,

3. Mining difficulty ratchets up.

Because mining difficulty is a function of mined bitcoins (and not a function of time) this price estimate isn't a refutation of Moore's law. It basically means that the demand for bitcoin, quantified I-don't-know-how, is going to double quite a bit faster than dollar-normalised processing power.

(Can anyone tell me whether increases in mining difficulty happen smoothly or sharply? I wonder whether the current market is smart enough to price a cliff in the rate.)

shit_parade• 13 years ago

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

repsilat2• 13 years ago

Very interesting. Now to try to corellate it with price swings...

maxerickson• 13 years ago

The difficulty changes every 2 weeks. So it happens sharply.

Also, the price will feed into mining activity, but mining activity won't especially feed into the price. It will some, but the giant size of the network means that mining power won't increase so much that it will substantially impact the ongoing supply (so the new coins should mostly be factored into the current market).

Mining difficulty is a function of both mined coins and time, the adjustment tries to make the time between new blocks 10 minutes.

ars_technician• 13 years ago

In other news, pumpers in a pump and dump scheme continue to pump. I can't believe this is even on the front page. What's next? A note from Tim Cook bullish on Apple?

neil1• 13 years ago

How is that news? It's in their self interest(being large bitcoin investors) to try to raise expectations and make the price go up.

confluence• 13 years ago

Hmmm, this reminds me of Carl Ichan, but I can't quite put my finger on why that is?

Could someone possibly clue me in. I'm at a total loss.

n00b101• 13 years ago

On Wall Street, this kind of rhetoric is called "talking your book."

EGreg2• 13 years ago

What does the other twin say?

Winklevoss twin says Bitcoin valuation will top $40k

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