How Google's Android Could Finally Crush Apple's iPhone

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/16/how-googles-android-could-finally-crush-apples-iph.aspx

by ytNumbers • 13 years ago

20 47 13 years ago

paul_f3• 13 years ago

Just bought a Nexus 5 and switched from Verizon to T-Mobile. (1) I now find the pricing tactics of Verizon, where I had been a happy customer for years, to be brutally anti-consumer.

(2) The Nexus 5 was $350. An iPhone 5S $650.

These are quite problematic for Apple.

matwood2• 13 years ago

Not only that, but after using my N5 and then using a 5S, the brand new 5S feels old. My friends who have iPhones are moving away. The few that are left are only holding on because their other Apple gear.

I was an original iPhone owner. For years Android phones were second class in hardware and OS. Android 4.0 fixed the OS. The N4 and now N5 have fixed the hardware (and removed the carrier crap).

bane9• 13 years ago

In a moment of lucidity, a friend of mine, when asked why he was so steadfastly sticking with his iPhone (which he was growing increasingly frustrated with) answered "I've bought too much media through iTunes to throw away."

confluence• 13 years ago

2 years too late, as the financial press usually is. Apple has already been crushed. It was obvious to anyone paying attention in 2010 (cue market/profit arguments in 3..2..1 - fanboys unite!).

Lessons learned:

Don't read the financial news if you want to have an edge. They know nothing. In fact they are so far behind you can't even see them in the rearview mirror.

Secondly, if your product is a commodity, make sure that your software owns all the price levels (see MSFT in the 80s).

Thirdly, if your monopoly is under attack, cut prices and flood the market (see Standard Oil).

And finally only the paranoid survive. Everyone is out to take your money. Be prepared and respond to the threat before it destroys you.

bane9• 13 years ago

It hasn't helped that Apple has been awkwardly late to the game in all the major platform sizes as well. A year late with a small tablet (price corrected now so it isn't cannibalizing profits), and still no larger format phone and no phablet format...which both sell like hotcakes in the smartphone market.

It'd be like if Honda refused to make a mid-sized sedan and minivan and piled all of their efforts into the Civic.

stephenr7• 13 years ago

Sell like Hotcakes? They sell reasonably well in one country - South Korea. In the rest of the world they’re at 7%.

bane9• 13 years ago

could? According to latest figures, at least globally, is.

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/item/34832-android-t...

"'We believe the absence of a large-screen device may have contributed to Apple’s inability to grow share in the third quarter,' said Ryan Reith, IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker programme director."

Also notice the average selling price. Android phones are right in the middle of the pricing pack, with iPhones sitting at more then double.

Basically, Apple makes phones that are too small and too expensive to win in the global market.

In the U.S. market Apple is the #1 manufacturer, but iOS is the #2 platform by marketshare - but holding steady (grow some quarters, lose some quarters) - not a great place to be, but not terrible either.

http://bgr.com/2013/08/06/us-smartphone-market-share-q2-2013...

Samsung is almost as profitable as Apple as well.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/11/14/apple-samsung-take...

iOS7 may be the beginning of a new approach for Apple. But they're going to have to launch a larger phone in addition to the already well selling smaller phone size. It's no surprised that analysts are expecting such a device the next go around.

stephenr7• 13 years ago

Basically, Apple makes phones that are too small and too expensive to win in the global market.

So, having profits higher than any other player in the smartphone market, with just 14% of market share, is “losing” is it?

Samsung had to sell nearly 2.5x as many devices to make LESS profit than Apple.

Google’s profit from Android is purely about eyeballs - what happens when people realise that Google actively watching everything they do is even more creepy than the NSA watching for what a small percentage of people are doing?

iOS7 may be the beginning of a new approach for Apple. But they're going to have to launch a larger phone in addition to the already well selling smaller phone size.

So you admit that the current phone sells well, and Apple’s profit share shows that it is immensely profitable, and yet somehow Apple “must” launch something different?

As for the general concept of “phablets” - have you ever fucking seen someone using one? It’s like the 21st century version of someone walking around with a boom box on their shoulder.

bane9• 13 years ago

Your ever moving fanboy goalposts are cute but irrelevant in the long term. Apple is quickly becoming irrelevant in the global market and needs to step it up to compete strategically. The smartphone market moves fantastically quickly because of all the competition. Apple brings some of the best competition there is but is increasingly starting to look old fashioned even among non fashionable demographics.

Things are starting to change. iOS7 is an important step forward from the very dated looking predecessor. But the phone format, or more specifically, the single small format smartphone they are currently leading with is not sustainable in the direction the vast majority of the market is hearing. Mark my words apple will offer a larger format phone within the next 2 years. They have no choice... Or they will fade into unfashionable irrelevance.

hengheng• 13 years ago

what happens when people realise that Google actively watching everything they do

People know. And frankly, nobody thinks Apple does any better. Particularly the omnipresent "M7" motion recording microcontroller is seen by many as a straight up NSA bug. Actually people are using Android devices without a Google account, preferring to instal apks from obscure sources.

So no, Apple does not have a better reputation than Android. Nokias N900 does. Welcome to the European tech scene, home to the pirate party.

jaxytee• 13 years ago

"Unless you're a techie or demand a larger display, Apple's iPhone will offer the better experience"

Apple IPhone offers a better experience? Maybe for the author. I have Android phones and an IPhone. I find the IPhone's lack of a back button counter intuitive. I also cringe at the idea of using Apple Maps. I don't know why these tech writers keep claiming the superiority of Apple's UX as an objective truth.

ivanca• 13 years ago

Even Timothy Cook cringes at the idea of using Apple Maps; and overall the design of iOS 7 is also counter intuitive and far from being a seamless experience, especially for new users.

w1ntermute• 13 years ago

Journalists have long had a special affinity for Apple. During the 90s, journalism was one of the last bastions of Mac usage. This fervor translated into iPhone fanboyism.

_Simon4• 13 years ago

Fanboyism? Oh please. How old are you? Paraonid jerk.

yalogin2• 13 years ago

You are techie. But I think its fair to say for a non-techie that perception (true or not) is there.

Zigurd2• 13 years ago

For a lot of people. My mother is a happy OSX and iPhone user and I would not think of putting a Windows or Linux OS in front of her. Lots of people want Apple's certainty and level of customer service at Apple stores.

The price difference to have these benefits is a few hundred dollars. Easily worth it to Apple's customers who dread spending hours on a problem with no Genius Bar to fall back on.

Android scored spectactular wins with OEMs and carriers, and someone ought to put a statue of Andy Rubin on horseback on the Google campus. But, much of Android's rapid growth can be accounted for with products and markets where Apple has not gone and in many cases does not want to go. Conversely the winning strategies highlighted in the article will take many years to mature.

I could make a case that Google has bungled Android tablet marketing, and should be much farther along in having an enterprise strategy based on tablets.

None of this spells doom for iPhone.

StavrosK• 13 years ago

I don't understand what these claims are supposed to show. My dad is a happy Ubuntu and Android user and I wouldn't put OS X and an iPhone in front of him. So what?

utopkara2• 13 years ago

First of all, I will short any stock you pick. It is always a good bet to predict that a company will soon be in a downslide.

Secondly, your personal feelings about the iPhone UX doesn't matter.

And finally, despite the earlier "expert predictions", somehow Apple have been posting record iPhone sales per quarter. Whoever these experts are, they such at prediction. https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/28Apple-Reports-Fou...

mcintyre1994• 13 years ago

Apple are posting record sales every quarter because the smartphone market is growing way faster (39.9% year-on-year) than Apple's share of the market is declining (1.5% year-on-year). http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24442013

utopkara2• 13 years ago

Here's a plausible argument: "That only means that the smartphone market now has segments. And, the consumers who are now buying other smartphones predominantly fall into the segment in which Android is stronger."

It is plausible because these predictions are worthless.

Zigurd2• 13 years ago

The market share numbers are true, but only Apple and Samsung (some of which is attributable to Samsung's unique vertical integration) have a significant share of profit from smartphones.

darkmirage• 13 years ago

I like how there are two comments on the article right now:

Comment 1: "This has to be the stupidest article just to bash Apple which this author continually does. I only read him to laugh at his misguided comments."

Comment 2: "Sam Mattera sounds like a gigantic Apple troll. Android is 1000x times better looking and more useful than the Fisher Price looking Apple iOS."

You can never win...

trimbo• 13 years ago

Motley Fool gets more clicks... Mission accomplished.

matthewmacleod• 13 years ago

Someone described the smartphone market in interesting terms to me yesterday: both Apple and Google are winners. And I think that's true: Google have a higher global marketshare, and Apple are making money hand over fist.

Apple aren't a stupid company. If they think there is a market for mobile devices with larger screens, then they'll introduce an iPhone with a larger screen. If they don't think that'll result in increased sales, then they won't.

As it stands, both platforms are in a pretty good place. Do we really need either of them to "win"?

bane9• 13 years ago

No, and it's definitely the consumers that win in the end in such a hot competitive marketplace.

yalogin2• 13 years ago

Why is the freedom from carriers thought of a great advantage for consumers in the US? There is no advantage as I see it. All the carriers have the same price for a data plan. And more importantly it has only increased since the iPhone's inception. Only T-Mobile because its desperate is offering $50 plans now. And if the other carriers see it as an advantage they will offer it too. But I would guess that once T-Mobile gains enough customers they will start jacking up their rates again.

dc2447• 13 years ago

I want to love Android. I really, genuinely do.

I have tried and tried many times but three of my four issues are unresolved.

1. Lagging (fixed I think) 2. No good email client that supports Exchange[1] 3. Plasticky build quality [2] 4. Very, very weak keyboard input

[1] Plus having to encrypt SD card makes Android slower [2] Yes, HTC One is better

bane9• 13 years ago

1) Lagging is still frustratingly there. Don't know if it's improved in the latest version.

2) Most of my Android devices have come with a default mail app that works perfectly with Exchange.

3) I've dropped my last 4 Android devices frequently and they've never broken (not saying they won't, they do, but it takes a bit of gusto to do it). I don't know a single iPhone user who hasn't had to replace their phone once a generation because they dropped it and the glass broke.

4) Keyboard input is definitely not the problem on Android, there are more keyboards available, and several are widely regarded as better than iOS's. Swype like keyboarding, which I think the new default Google one has supported for a while, is transformative.

donatzsky• 13 years ago

1) Lag is mostly a thing of the past now, but depends a lot on the hardware. My Nexus 4 rarely lags, whereas my Nexus 7 (2012) lags all the time. Some poorly made apps can also cause lag (Facebook used to be pretty bad).

2) It works fine with Exchange, but is lacking in features. It has, however, received a major overhaul in KitKat, so perhaps it's better now (haven't tried it yet).

_Simon4• 13 years ago

3) That is just meaningless anecdote. Conversly, I'm seeing as many (possibly more) shattered S3 and S4 devices as iPhones. I've owned a 3Gs, a 4s and a 5 and not had to replace the glass ever.

4) So if there is a market for keyboards, it would suggest that there is a problem with the default one! I totally accept the point that Android has the benefit of selecting which keyboard the use wishes to use, but to use a term you seem obsessed with, you are moving the goalposts.

paul_f3• 13 years ago

Look at Swiftkey my friend and you'll never want to use an iPhone keyboard again. But you'll have to since Apple does not allow alternative keyboards.

Comparing stock Android to stock iPhone is missing the point.

stephenr7• 13 years ago

Non american here. Can someone help me make sense of the premise for this article?

By “month to month” is the author refering to a post-paid service (i.e. you get a bill to pay at the end of each month, which may or may not be more than your monthly minimum depending on usage), or “pre-paid/pay as you go” accounts (where you buy “credit” or “top up" every month/when it runs out?)

The author suggests “month to month” is better value than the contracts to the tune of $40/month, but I’ve never heard of any telecom anywhere offering worse value for money on any kind of post-paid account, compared to a pre-paid/pay-as-you-go account.

Im aware the majority of americans have long been suckling at the teat of carried locked/carrier specific phones (i.e. pick your network then see what phones are available) but is paying $600 vs paying $200 really that much of an inconvenience, if the difference is $40 a MONTH!?

Please, someone explain this crazy industry you have - I grew up in Australia - when I got an iPhone 4, it was a small amount upfront, and the “device payment” added about $10 or $15 a month (on a 2 year contract) to the monthly cost - at that rate, the phone cost me about $400, for what was > $1K outright purchase.

I’m now living in Thailand, where even with a contract, smartphones are not subsidised, but sometimes a slightly better contract (which can generally be broken without penalty as I understand it) is available if you purchase a phone via the telecom.

Can someone shed some light on the US sitation that this guy is talking about?

coldcode• 13 years ago

Or not. Wait until Samsung decides finally to abandon Android because they can't stand basing their entire business on a US competitor's work. Also so far Google is making very little on Android and on their own phones while Samsung and Apple are making all the profits. Eventually these two forces will force a change. Everyone wants to rule the world and every wants to be like Apple and control everything. Expect an ugly split into three mostly incompatible camps (plus Windows/Nokia as a minicamp). The dream of an "open" mobile OS is a temporary period not long for this world.

joelgrus• 13 years ago

"Why would you ever buy an Android phone?"

He doesn't even mention the most important reason -- so that you never have to use iTunes again!

paul_f3• 13 years ago

Until Apple makes a 5inch iPhone, they are simply too small for a large chunk of the population.

_Simon4• 13 years ago

Bullshit.

_Simon4• 13 years ago

You don't have to use the desktop (I assume that is what you mean) version now. But hey, you keep on rattling out those 2007 memes...

varelse• 13 years ago

Downside: it's a Motley Fool article. Tomorrow they'll likely say exactly the opposite and explain in gory detail exactly why IOS is poised to finally crush Android. I've long since abandoned them.

Upside: They have a point about techies. I have an Ipad Air that crushes every Android tablet I've ever owned w/r to usability (Nexus 7, Kindle Fire, Kindle Fire HD, Galaxy 10.1 and yes I know they're all at least a year-old but all of them became janky* within months of buying them and stayed that way). Despite that, I'll probably buy a Nexus 5 when the contract for my Galaxy Nexus (a phone Google abandoned like Sergei Brin abandons marriage) because I find the presentation of information on Android more intuitive to me and I'll just assume I need to buy a new phone every year going forward therefore no more contracts.

*http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Talk:janky

matwood2• 13 years ago

The Kindles are extremely low bars to cross. The HW isn't very good (other than the screen which is okay), and the OS customizations make them one of the most confusing tablets to use. The N7 was a tablet more my size, but it wasn't perfect either. All of the iPads pre-mini were to big and heavy for my tastes. The first iPad mini was waste of a good size with it's poor screen and iPad 2 internals. I haven't seen one yet in person, but I think the new iPad mini with a retina display is going to become the iPad to have.

cwisecarver• 13 years ago

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How Google's Android Could Finally Crush Apple's iPhone

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