What You Really Need Is A Market, Not An Idea

http://www.pfinn.net/markets-not-ideas-for-bootstrappers-founders.html

by route3 • 14 years ago

280 54 14 years ago

gelizondo• 14 years ago

Well said.

I think that a lot of entrepreneurs also completely miss the concept of loss aversion. No matter how much pain your potential idea may be solving, some people are simply in love with their current shitty situation.

urlwolf• 14 years ago

This post is gold. And agrees with Amy Hoy, Rob Wailing, Dane Maxwell, and many others who have been writing about boostrapping for a while.

If you dedicate 70% of the time to find the market and isolate the pain point, risk decreases hyperbolically :)

hasenj• 14 years ago

Could you link to these people's blogs? Would make your comment so much more useful.

gacba• 14 years ago

Amy Hoy: http://unicornfree.com/

Rob Walling: http://softwarebyrob.com/

Dane Maxwell: http://thefoundation.io/blog/

mthoms• 14 years ago

This belongs on "the best of HN" (if such a thing exists) and should be required reading for any aspiring startup founder.

In the online startup community very little space seems to be devoted to methods and tips for researching markets. Perhaps this is an opportunity itself? Someone should research this niche and then start an on online information resource if the demand is there.

(edit: yes, I realize how meta this is)

pukka_my• 14 years ago

It may not be as widespread in the 'online startup community', but user-centricity is at the heart of design. (full transparency: I'm a user researcher/strategist who typically does this kind of work for more traditional CPG/service companies and at uxhours.com)

jere• 14 years ago

Paul, did you apply this to Hoppy Press? Just curious what the market is for hand made beer art.

yolesaber2• 14 years ago

Does Hoppy Press just make posters? It would be cool if they also expanded into making labels / promotional materials for small brewers as well. I dabble in homebrewing and it is non-trivial for me to get quality labels for my batches.

route3• 14 years ago

Yes, just posters. We've been asked about expanding in to labels before but we're happy sticking to screen prints for now (currently it's successful enough to make it worthwhile and it's a fun side business, but no plans to take it further).

You aren't alone though, the need for label/promo materials has been mentioned a few times over in the homebrewing subreddit.

mixmastamyk• 14 years ago

Googled for beer labels and found at least dozen choices. Is there something wrong with them that I don't know about?

duopixel• 14 years ago

I think the article oversees an important factor in startup success: the needs of the market is a vast land, and surely there is an intersection with a passion yours.

I can't envision the founder of Bang & Olufsen being indifferent to sound quality, or the founder of Herman Miller being indifferent to office furniture. I chose these companies deliberately because I don't know their founders, but I'm sure they were passionate about their field.

I can't fathom building a company for a market that might be lucrative, but is meaningless to me. I'd rather build 10 failed companies than create a profitable CRM for telemarketers.

geoffw8• 14 years ago

I think while you are right you have to bear in mind that what you have commented on is their position in the market . The co's you mention are at the top end of their market, if I'm honest I know very little about these companies, I don't know if their current price/quality point is as it always has been or if its developed to that point.

As a beer drinker but not quite beer lover If I realized there was an opportunity in the beer market, then as an entrepreneur I'd deliver what the market wanted. If it was a a high quality drink then I'm sure in could deliver it.

Sorry if that point is fizzled I'm writing this on my phone. I'm just saying while I agree passion helps, I wouldn't say its an absolute necessity for delivering a high quality product.

Edit: I realize now your point is more about you even wanting to start the company as opposed to being able yo deliver it.

Personally I enjoy business and solving these problems and watching these solutions get used. What I'm saying is the buzz therefore for me is the process of business vs the space. I think what that means in practice is I don't have a list of spaces I will go into, but a list of spaces I will not.

Again, sorry, writing this in my phone has not been a pleasurable experience!

hayksaakian• 14 years ago

> I can't fathom building a company for a market that might be lucrative, but is meaningless to me. I'd rather build 10 failed companies than create a profitable CRM for telemarketers.

That's a luxury not many people have. Many can't afford 10 failures on top of a family to feed or other debt and obligations.

te_chris• 14 years ago

But they CAN get jobs (well, in theory, prevailing market conditions aside). Not everyone is supposed to be an entrepreneur, but those that try gain valuable skills they can apply elsewhere, even if it doesn't work out.

redguava4• 14 years ago

I don't think you are making a correct analogy here. If you build software and that's what you enjoy, then build software, don't build audio systems or design furniture. The actual industry you build software for... well not as important, as long as you are building software as that is where your passion is.

Your day to day activities for your work are very similar if you are building software for a call centre or building software to manage coffee distribution (I am just assuming you might like coffee here). The industry plays a very small part in what you do, but it greatly impacts the chance of success.

ricardobeat3• 14 years ago

I don't think you get the idea. "Building software" by itself doesn't mean anything; software is made to have some utility. The parent is not talking about code, if you're starting a business, the industry defines a major part of what you do.

sgdesign• 14 years ago

This is a great article, and definitely something I could recommend to a lot of people.

But what about passion? Identifying a market is one thing, but should you go after it if you don't have any interest for that particular domain? I know that's what Patrick did with BingoCardCreator, but I personally don't think I would be capable of that.

Of course market research is primordial, but I still think there's something to be said for following your passion and building something really cool. You might not make as much money, but on the other hand maybe you'll enjoy the process more.

Matt_Mickiewicz• 14 years ago

Great read, if you pick the right market, it's easy to become profitable very, very quickly.

In our case, we picked "Developer Recruiting in SF" as our initial market after years of personal experience dealing with incompetent recruiters, expensive job board ads that didn't produce results and talking to hundreds of founders/CEOs/CTOs who where all complaining about the same thing.

keithpeter2• 14 years ago

"Be prepared to adjust the binoculars as go -- you may discover a market existing where you didn't know one existed. Like teachers needing bingo cards."

Why do teachers need bingo cards? Because they need easy ways of making interactive and attractive games and puzzles for their students. And they will pay for stuff, but not huge amounts. You might get a monthly fee for a Web based authoring system if the figure is low. We have to be careful about putting students on Web sites, so probably not a fully Web based membership system.

Plenty of room there, UK has around 600,000 teachers, US must be 5 times that. Similar for Europe and other continents.

MaxGabriel• 14 years ago

It was a reference to Bingo Card Creator, patio11's company.

keithpeter2• 14 years ago

Yes, I know, and I thought it might be useful to state a few obvious reasons why some game software might be useful to teachers!

hodder2• 14 years ago

I was the person who started the link referenced in the article, "Can we brainstorm a list of sites like bingo card creator", and admittedly the post was either a poor idea, or at the very least poorly phrased.

Coming from a business background, I just assumed that any idea people would put out there would have been small solutions to small problems... not "sitcom startups". I guess I was wrong. Really the only thing I was looking for were problems that could potentially be solved with minimal capital, and only 1 or 2 people. I wasn't looking to bypass market validation, or solving poeple's problems.

So, going back to the underlying question of starting businesses, how do you go about finding a market, finding problems, finding solutions to those problems, and finding paying customers? Preferably all without wasting a ton of time or money?

I hope Patrick replies to this thread and walks us through his process. Did Patrick start with the teachers market because he knew some teachers? Did he ask them what problems they had? Did they complain to him that were dying to play classroom bingo, that the existing solutions are terrible, and that they would pay him if he provided a solution?

I know some people involved in trades, some in education, finance, and consulting. Several of these people are either the business owners themselves, or have the authority to pay for software solutions to their problems. These are primarily offline markets. How do you suggest going from here, to paying customers? Asking them outright what problems they have? What problems they have that software might provide a solution? What problems they have with current software solutions they use?

MDS100• 14 years ago

He had some on a mailing list for his Company IIRC. He solved this for some teacher on the list and 60+ showed demand for it. It's in his podcasts or on his sites.

Ask them for problems/pain points and let them talk and you figure out how software can help.

rsobers• 14 years ago

I feel like this has been said a billion times. (Isn't this what Steve Blank's customer development methodology is all about?) I do realize, though, that now matter how many times we say it, people fall into the trap of thinking their idea is enough.

In very rare cases where there is no market yet, ideas do matter (e.g., the automobile).

Tyrant505• 14 years ago

"It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them" - Jobs

Too• 14 years ago

"If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." - Henry Ford

icebraining• 14 years ago

Still, faster horses is a useful requirement. Sure, you have to abstract away the technology, but the need is there.

ricardobeat3• 14 years ago

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/08/henry_ford_never_said_the_fa...

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/07/28/ford-faster-horse/

corford• 14 years ago

An idea without a market is largely useless (from an income generating perspective at least). But as a single founder currently slugging through the mountain of work needed to get something off the ground, I know I couldn't do it if my heart wasn't in it and I had no passion for what I'm working on other than plugging a hole in a randomly identified market.

Despite having an entrepreneurial streak and coming from an entrepreneurial family, I was 29 before I finally decided to quit my job and pursue the idea I'm now working on. A big reason it took so long was because I was only willing to risk everything on an idea that I believed in AND had a demonstrated market. Having one or the other wasn't enough.

It isn't all roses though. Even if you think you've got a good idea and a valid market for it, it's still all for nothing if you can't get in front of and retain a critical mass of customers. That's the piece of the puzzle I'll shortly be faced with and I'm not relishing it.

zanny• 14 years ago

Delicious networking and marketing!

armenarmen• 14 years ago

having built stuff (that failed) based on "a good idea" I can not agree more with the post

donebizkit• 14 years ago

seconded! story of my life

callmeed3• 14 years ago

This post appears to simply restate what it attempts to argue against (niche ideas and the previous brainstorming post).

Niches are markets. Dog walkers probably could use some kind of SaaS app. Restaurants desperately need better websites. And if you have a passion or (especially) deep knowledge of those industries/markets/niches, there's nothing wrong with experimenting with ideas.

No one is arguing against doing market research–in fact, multiple people stated that as the first step in the HN post mentioned. And I doubt the OP on that thread was saying "make some ideas up out of the blue with no basis in industry knowledge". C'mon.

[1] http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4917661

ahoyhere2• 14 years ago

Niches aren't markets, they're demographics… statement of facts, essentially, which may be incidental or immaterial. A job title doesn't tell you about beliefs, aspirations, willingness to pay for things, sense of community, etc.

Do dog walkers hang out together online in a place you can identify? If not, how will you learn about them in a way that's natural & not manipulated by their feeling of social obligation or desire to be nice to you and positive about your ideas?

Do they hang out together? Do they talk to each other? Do they spread information on products they love, do they help each other and recommend things? Do they care about being better dog walkers, saving time or money?

If not, they share demographics in common, but they're not a market in the sense that I teach in my class.

For a niche to be a bonafide market, for the purposes of creating & selling a product, there needs to be a solid segment which thinks and behaves in the same (pro-commerce) ways.

callmeed3• 14 years ago

"niche" is simply shorthand for "niche market" IMO [1]. So it very much is a market and not a demographic. Without delving into a battle of semantics, I don't think either of these posts referred to a demographic of "people who are employed as dog walkers" ... I read them as the niche market of "people who own dog walking businesses."

I cannot answer all those questions about dog walking business owners because I am not one nor do I have insider knowledge about that business.

>> Do they care about being better dog walkers, saving time or money?

I'll go out on a limb here and say "YES", if you own a dog walking business, you care about saving time or money (or making more money).

That being said, I can answer all those questions about other niches (photographers, hackers, restaurant owners, churches, etc.) because I either am one or know that market. So, that gives me a pretty good starting point for identifying needs, doing deeper research, and then creating a product that meets those needs and that niche market is willing to pay for.

That is, in my opinion, what both posts were saying (in different ways).

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niche_market

hodder2• 14 years ago

I was the OP from the other thread. callmeed understands what my intent was with the other post. Sadly, I either wrote up the post poorly, or the method of asking outright on forums is a bad idea.

Coming from a business background, I just assumed that any idea people would put out there would have been small solutions to small problems... not "sitcom startups", products with no market, or funny stabs at combining nouns with an airbnbnb business model. Perhaps I was wrong. Really the only thing I was looking for were problems that could potentially be solved with minimal capital, and only 1 or 2 people.

Maybe looking for small problems, solutions, and actionable ideas can't be done on internet forums... It didn't seem too unthinkable for me to imagine someone like Patrick responding to my initial post with something like this:

"You know what? Some teachers have approached me to build a Bingo Card Creator, and are willing to pay for it. I may be able to introduce you to them. Personally, I have zero interest in pursuing this, but maybe you do. Obviously, you will want to do your own market research, but you likely have at least a few sales. The market is niche, and I am pursuing something a little bigger that interests me more, but it could be worth a look for you. A sweet bonus is that this can probably be executed by a single person."

Interestingly, Paul himself seems to have started a company that might be earning him money and could have originated in that thread.

I was looking for ideas like Posters for verticals. Maybe Paul didn't want to start doing posters for microbreweries, but knew that people wanted them. Is any sharing of small business ideas completely useless?

Yes he went on to validate the idea, knowing that spending half a year building an app or product and trying to market it prior to validation isn't very intelligent, but I thought that was implied.

callmeed3• 14 years ago

I'm glad you posted this for clarification, but I thought your original thread was fairly clear (hopefully my reply there made sense too).

FWIW, I don't think it was wrong to post that question here. You just never know what kind of response questions like that will get.

Also, I apologize for not adding more ideas (been traveling). Drop me an email and I can share more.

ahoyhere2• 14 years ago

Nice to see another one of my 30x500 alumni rocking the HN charts. With great, solid advice. Congrats, Paul. Great post.

zeynalov• 14 years ago

Similar discussion about ideas - http://www.vusal.me/essays/ideas/

eriksank• 14 years ago

I am involved in a bunch of smaller things, each with different people that I met along the way of doing other things -- serendipitiously -- and I never felt the need to drop everything to do a big, risky startup around a "great idea" or a "great niche market". None of the smaller things I do, actually has a full-time person working on it. That's the beauty of websites. They are always there, but there is no need to attend to them on a full-time basis. It's all running on solar power and wind energy ;-) I may do something bigger one day or another, but I don't see the pressing need to actually make that happen. It will only happen by serendipity.

aaroncray• 14 years ago

What you really need is a new category not a market.

babuskov• 14 years ago

Riiiight... Mark Zuckerberg researched the worldwide market before starting Facebook. Kevin Rose researched the market before starting Digg. And all the other successful entrepreneurs are known for this.

"Research the market" approach is good if you want to build a regular bootstrapped business. If you're building a startup, you should actually build an MVP and "Test the market".

Please don't get me wrong, but I still believe that building a couple of duds and failing is the better way to go. If you're building something truly innovative and disruptive, most people you ask during "research" won't even know that they need it.

codewright• 14 years ago

Facebook hasn't really gotten its (profit) legs yet, and Kevin Rose (Digg for that matter) is about the worst possible example you could've chosen.

Kevin Rose is the horse of choice for the Riders of the Startupocalypse proclaiming the end is near.

I'd say there is an argument to be made in both directions. Clearly there are a lot of startups that didn't arise from market analysis, but there's also a lot to be said for not panhandling for VC money without understanding your addressable market.

I'd rather not see those arguments unintentionally strawmanned by somebody who is apparently unaware of the current state of Facebook's stock or what exactly became of Digg and why. Or how Rose is widely reviled for throwing his engineers under the bus for what were ultimately product decisions made high up.

novaleaf• 14 years ago

i don't think your counter-argument stands very well: trying to argue that facebook is somehow not successful seems just silly.

antidaily• 14 years ago

I guess it all depends on whether you want to be profitable or potentially "disruptive".

arbuge• 14 years ago

This is correct but in my experience that's a far higher risk path to take. Potentially much higher rewards too, granted, but you're really gambling with this approach.

The author outlines a lower risk approach to customer development that I think works better for most people, unless your goal is to be the next Zuck at all costs.

IceCreamYou• 14 years ago

Marc Andreessen nailed this point years ago:

https://pmarca-archive.posterous.com/the-pmarca-guide-to-sta...

mbesto• 14 years ago

The Pmarca Guide to Startups, part 4: The only thing that matters http://web.archive.org/web/20070701074943/http://blog.pmarca...

What You Really Need Is A Market, Not An Idea

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