Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-Year in December

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heavy-truck-sales-collapsed-in-q4-down.html

by speckx • 7 months ago

37 8 7 months ago

johng• 7 months ago

This also might have something to do with it. Older trucks are more attractive because they don't have as many emissions dongle's that are expensive and break all the time. The EPA has recently been cracking down on emissions delete kits, etc.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/this-18-year-old-peterbilt-sol...

mywittyname• 7 months ago

I have my doubts. DEF was mandated on class 7 & 8 trucks in 2010, and as we can see by the graph in the article, that timeline coincides with a sustained boom in truck sales.

People hate emissions equipment the knee-jerk reaction is to blame it first and foremost for any problems in the automotive industry. To me, the data indicates that COVID impacted heavy truck pricing the same as it impacted cars, other durable goods and heavy equipment.

Also, this article is n=1 of a low mileage example of a vehicle that doesn't often see so little use. If you hunt around auctions, you'll find tons of examples of pristine vehicles going for absurd prices. This does not represent a trend, for that, we'd need to look at wholesale prices of used equipment and compare it to general and industry-specific inflation figures in order to show that prices are increasing due to factors beyond inflation and availability.

There's even a tacit admission to this fact in the article, pointing out how the auction of a low-hours post-DEF truck also fetched very high prices.

The most obvious explanation is that the people seeking out assets as an inflation hedge are broadening the scope of assets they are interested in. Auction quality vehicles have been a solid bet post-2020, even after fees. This truck will probably surface again in a few years at a 30% higher price.

paganholiday2• 7 months ago

Who would invest in an ICE truck now not knowing what higher costs or restrictions it might have in a decade.. Most new car buyers are inherently irrational and not trying to make a profit from TCO relative to other car owners, but a truck..

estimator7292• 7 months ago

Bad theory. People buying new cars do not expect them to last a decade. People who buy new cars in this era are consumers who treat them as fast fashion. They get traded in every few years with an ever-increasing markup.

Most new car buyers are inherently irrational

Don't try to rationalize irrational behavior with magical long term thinking. Irrational people as a rule do not plan a decade in advance.

paganholiday2• 7 months ago

I think you've misinterpreted my comment. My point is that new car buyers don't really have to care about costs a decade out while Heavy Truck buyers do.

mickdeek86• 7 months ago

I interpreted this article to be talking about commercial trucks, like semis and box trucks. Are there good electric alternatives available?

metalman• 7 months ago

some heavy truck type sales are down 50% class 8, are the biggest

https://www.fleetequipmentmag.com/november-class-8-orders-do...

kjellsbells• 7 months ago

"ongoing lack of for-hire carrier profitability is the main bottleneck for improved new vehicle demand. While supply has started to come out of the market, demand is soft, with cyclical freight generating sectors lagging"

The quoted comment from an analyst is interesting, they think the drop in sales is because freight carriers arent making enough money to justify buying new trucks.

Is that because we are buying less, hence less to move around? Or buying more locally/fewer imports, hence less big rig miles needed? Or because of industry consolidation, eg Amazon shipping not generating work amongst any other truckers except Amazon?

Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-Year in December

Related Stories