Tesla Q1 2025 Update [pdf]

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/IR/TSLA-Q1-2025-Update.pdf

by mfiguiere • 1 year ago

61 37 1 year ago

digitalassets.tesla.com

chollida12• 1 year ago

Numbers:

- Q1 EPS $0.27, Est $0.43, wow, hard to remember a fumble this large for such a big company. This is a big canary in the coal mine for US markets earning season, things are going to get really ugly.

- Q1 Revenue $19.3B, Est $21.7B

- Model 3 deliveries down 12%,

- Model Y deliveries down 12%

- CyberTruck deliveries down 24%

- production of Model 3 down 16%

- production of Model Y down 18%

- regulatory credits $600M for Q1

- powerwall passed 1GW in deliveries for the first time, that's positive

- Q1 gross automotive margins are at 12.5%

Notes:

- could Elon announcing he's leaving TSLA be the biggest single personal catalyst for a companies stock price, since Balmer announced he was leaving MSFT?

- They are providing guidance that tariffs will affect the power business more than the automotive business, which makes sense as North America makes up 5% of global Lithium-ion battery production and China makes up 84% of it

- Cybercab status is now "in construction"

- dropped their old sales guidance

- dropped their prediction that sales would grow on the year

- nothing in the deck about Elon staying on, but they did add a new risk about the changing political climate may affect their sales

- New Texas Lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production next year Watch For:

- Does Elon provide a hard target for when he starts working again?

- Energy storage has been growing, but batteries will be hit hard by tariffs, rare earths, does that hit energy storage yet? or do we see a pump from pulling forward demand to beat tariffs?

- Any tie ins with xAI? Elon seems to be throwing everything he can to pump up xAI's valuation, he clearly has some loans now tied to its price

- Tone of earnings call, Typically earnings calls have been essentially blowing smoke up Elon's ass with no tough questions asked/answered at all.

Even one hard question would indicate that wall street has shifted from the Elon can do no wrong mindset

- Will TSLA blame tariffs for bad sales like other companies have?

- What will they say about a new Tesla models?

- China sales will dominate what the market thinks, Therefor Tesla will almost certainly not break them out,

neogodless2• 1 year ago

Note that all those delivery numbers are year-over-year, but if you look at the growth through 2024, the drop off in this quarter is more stark.

For example:

Q4-2024 495,570 Q1-2025 336,681

That's down 32%.

billconan• 1 year ago

Should publicly traded companies be required to notify investors if their financial results are expected to deviate significantly from previous guidance or market expectations? I recall NVIDIA issuing a preliminary announcement before one of their earnings reports a while ago.

harmmonica• 1 year ago

I was eager to see how the other models performed vs Model Y (thanks for breaking that out!). There has been quite a lot of rationalizing that any softness in Tesla's vehicle sales would be the result of the Model Y redesign. I think we now know that's not true or at least only minimally true based on the numbers you cite.

For that reason I think this being a canary is not quite accurate because there's literally no other company with as much self-inflicted brand damage. What will be interesting to see is the delta between Tesla's poor performance and the other mega caps because you'll able to somewhat infer how much of the damage to Tesla is due to the brand/Elon issues (i.e., if Tesla is down 20% on revenue/earnings and the others are down less, on average, then that gap could be a backhand way to quantify the brand damage).

Of course all that said there is quite a significant amount of brand damage to go around for every well-known American company at the moment due to guilt by association. International sales will be very interesting to see with Apple, imo, likely being the most high-profile casualty of "don't buy US" (other than Tesla, I mean).

edit: added qualification about Tesla at very end

deng• 1 year ago

I'm short on Tesla, but I fully expect these brutal numbers to not have a big effect. The Tesla bulls have already said that 2025 will be a "throwaway year" but it doesn't matter because in 2 years we'll all be riding Tesla robotaxis and have an Optimus at home doing the laundry. In the meantime, I fully expect Tesla getting big orders from government agencies, unless Elon has a fallout with his buddy.

ein0p3• 1 year ago

Come on, Elon, add FSD at no extra charge to the Cybertruck and I'll buy one. I ain't paying $8K for partial autonomy, and the hardware is already there. It's only fair.

actionfromafar3• 1 year ago

Lidar is there?

tim333• 1 year ago

canary in the coal mine for US markets earning season

Tesla has some unique features with the nazi salute and cars getting torched. I don't think it's a good guide to other companies earnings.

LightBug1• 1 year ago

Ratner comes to mind ...

empath75• 1 year ago

If Tesla was trading on actual fundamentals, it'd be about $30/share. It's got like a 200x+ P/E ratio, and it's no longer a growth stock.

actionfromafar3• 1 year ago

Right now it's trading on being a state backed company.

rsynnott2• 1 year ago

Ooh, a state backed company! It could be almost as successful as British Leyland, or Lada!

Like, historically, "state backed car company" tends to mean "struggles to keep existing while protectionist policies last, then implodes messily once they lapse."

nixass• 1 year ago

Believe it or not stock goes up

almog• 1 year ago

The cult leader announcement that he'll be back at Tesla in a month did it (which is really no news given that his contract is limited to 130 days without congress approval).

Also Trump's comments about not having intentions to dismiss J. Powell + trying to save face on tariffs cave (which affected ES futures as a whole, not anything specific to Tesla).

aaomidi2• 1 year ago

Trump announcing he’s caving on the tariffs the same day as earnings. Not a coincidence. Given he also acted as a salesperson for Tesla.

nunez• 1 year ago

woof; huge drop all across the board. definitely looks like a bloodbath to me.

anecdotally, two people, who don't have EVs, reacted negatively to me renting a model 3 recently.

this was definitely not the case last year.

tesla has a reputation problem. they need to admit it.

i agree with the hivemind that this is 100% the reason behind the massive drop. given that they still have the best EVs on the market with the best EV supercharging network on the market, this is the only possible reason.

bl4kers• 1 year ago

given that they still have the best EVs on the market

Nah. The build quality continues to disappoint and the number of recalls is high. Chinese manufacturers have been leading the way for a while now. They're just banned from major countries.

cosmicgadget• 1 year ago

Share price is more about trajectory than position. Tesla has stagnated, mucking around with halo models and abandoning its affordable vehicle plans. The market in China has dead ended and any progress in autonomy is dependent on regulatory approval. The company is currently fourth banana for its 'visionary' CEO, behind DOGE, Twitter, and SpaceX.

It's more than a matter of people disapproving of his antics.

NoPicklez3• 1 year ago

I don't know if its just the US, but it certainly seems like Elon's reputation is having a bigger impact on Tesla drivers in the US.

Here in Australia the sentiment is that they're just Tesla cars, people don't care its tied to Elon "or some guy that did a salute".

Does certainly seem to be a hivemind.

aaomidi2• 1 year ago

That probably says more about Australian society than it does about Tesla.

lawn• 1 year ago

given that they still have the best EVs on the market

I really don't think so. Chinese, Korean, and even European cars have caught up and in some cases surpassed Tesla in both price and quality.

mullingitover2• 1 year ago

they still have the best EVs on the market with the best EV supercharging network on the market

This is a very "Blackberry still has the best smartphone on the market" in 2008 take.

Anyone who's seen the Chinese EVs released in the past year can see that they're building iPhones, Tesla is still building Blackberries, and the only thing keeping Tesla as a going concern in 2026 will be iron-fisted protectionism.

Marsymars2• 1 year ago

they're building iPhones, Tesla is still building Blackberries,

How so? i.e. What do you envision a Chinese EV will look like in 10 years compared to what I can buy today in North America?

Thrymr• 1 year ago

Robotaxis are "scheduled for volume production starting in 2026". Sure.

"On stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California, Musk boasted about Tesla’s self-driving technology, predicting his company will have more than 1 million robotaxis on the road next year." CNBC, 2019

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than...

decimalenough• 1 year ago

Elon's original claim was that all FSD-capable Teslas would also be robotaxis. Tesla did, in fact, break the 1M car mark in 2020, but it's now 2025 and FSD remains buggy and unsafe even with a driver at the wheel.

NoPicklez3• 1 year ago

It's interesting the rationale within the update as to the decline, with no mention of political/reputational linkages. Obviously that is less tangible than those listed but it is interesting and of course unfavorable to disclose.

When the auditors come in EOFY they look at the various accounts and their opening/closing balances year on year and look to explain at a high level what has impacted the increase and decrease of those accounts in the current FY. They will certainly pick up on reputational and political reasons.

neogodless2• 1 year ago

Well it's implied on page 3:

This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term.

Tesla Q1 2025 Update [pdf]

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