New study confirms gulf stream weakening

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

by leononame • 3 years ago

93 67 3 years ago

jl6• 3 years ago

What would be the consequence of this on various regions? A colder Europe?

I believe there's also some fear about the cold Arctic water flowing south and destroying the fishing banks off Canada and some other Really Bad Stuff...

morkalork• 3 years ago

On the Pacific side? Because on the Atlantic side the fish stocks still haven't recovered no?

voisin• 3 years ago

There’s a documentary about it: https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/

zh3• 3 years ago

For Europe generally - and the UK in particular, where the seas around it act as a natural temperature buffer - yes, it's would likely get quite a lot colder. Take a look at how the temperature average and variations in NYC at ~41 degrees north compare to London which is more like 51 degrees but bathed in the gulf stream (caveats involved, both coastal northern hemisphere east coast cities but a lot more land to the west of NY than for London).

andersa2• 3 years ago

Isn't that... great? Europe is currently annoyingly hot in the summer, so getting colder sounds like an improvement.

jncfhnb2• 3 years ago

Higher sea levels for east coast us, colder and stormier Western Europe, drier Indian and Africa.

The latter sounds like the worst part. The world is not prepared for the immense headache that would be crop failure across India.

OceanKing• 3 years ago

From the link:

"While we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation," [the first co-author] Piecuch said. "We can see similar weakening indicated in climate models, but for this paper we were not able to put together the observational evidence that would really allow us to pinpoint the cause of the observed decline."

but also...

[The second co-author] Beal added, "The Gulf Stream is a vital artery of the ocean's circulation, and so the ramifications of its weakening are global. I used to think of the ocean as our last remaining frontier, wild, pristine, and indomitable. It saddens me to acknowledge, from our study and so many others, and from recent record-breaking headlines, that even the remotest parts of the ocean are now in the grip of our addiction to fossil fuels." (emphasis mine)

Seems a little disingenuous to state in the publication that you cannot conclude the cause of the decline, and then in the press release go about definitively blaming it on fossil fuels, including stating that this conclusion is supported by your study.

aCoreyJ• 3 years ago

The thing is it's impossible to prove any single event or change is caused by climate change because we have no way of showing what would be happening if humans hadn't altered the planet.

With weather we can show that severe events have become more common.

I'd have to read the study thoroughly to know for sure but it seems they can show certain effects of the fossil fuels industry but not actual causation of the overall slowdown, which may be impossible to prove.

jncfhnb2• 3 years ago

Everything is impossible to prove. However fossil fuels are demonstrably casual factors in mechanics that generate the exact effects we see. Effects which correlate extremely well with the timing of our emissions and we’re largely unchanged on such time scales previously.

kergonath• 3 years ago

“Prove” has different meanings for most people compared to scientists. As you say, it is impossible to prove that something like this, which results from a complex set of conditions and most likely a complex set of causes, results from a single thing. So we speak in probabilities, confidence intervals, and significance. That’s just science speak.

This results from human-made global warming in the same way as a smoker’s lung cancer results from smoking. The conclusion is also the same in both cases: “don’t do it”. Nobody can prove that it will kill, but it drastically increases the odds.

Also, note that this is not at all unexpected. I remember articles in scientific vulgarisation magazines in the 1990s discussion this and the fact that, counter-intuitively, global warming could result in local cooling in Western Europe because of a weakened Gulf Stream. We are still far from that.

chimpanzee• 3 years ago

> We can see similar weakening indicated in climate models
> we were not able to put together the observational evidence that would really allow us to pinpoint the cause of the observed decline
> the grip of our addiction to fossil fuels

I take the above to mean that the ocean’s current state cannot be proven to be caused by climate change. But climate change models do indicate a similar effect would be had. So, given the current state, any future effect of climate change would only make things worse.

Importantly, “in the grip of” only implies a future determined by “the hand that grips” not that the past or present was necessarily produced by the same hand.

perrygeo• 3 years ago

You're under-emphasizing the "and so many others" part. The causes of ocean circulation change are well known. This paper didn't even address the causality part and only focused on confirming the change. But the causality has been studied elsewhere: we know temperature and salinity are two of the drivers, and those are directly influenced by anthropogenic climate change.

So it's more accurate to say that the synthesis of all recent research indicates fossil fuel emissions are a causal factor. The statement could have been worded more clearly, but it's supported by the scientific evidence.

pierat• 3 years ago

You know, we're supposed to assume sincerity and general good intent to folks here...

But you know, you have to wonder just how many big business astroturfers there are here. We know the oil companies knew about climate change in the 70s, and buried it. It's not at all unbelievable that they would pay influencers and the like to peddle downplays of climate devastation, in order to slow responses.

Obviously, we don't know for sure, since accts here are semi-anonymous. But it would make a great deal of sense to sow confusion and condemnation and downplay the anthropocene.

hedora• 3 years ago

It’s well understood that increased average global temperature will shut down the gulf stream.

The question is which of a few different climate change model scenarios we’re in, and which of their tipping points we just crossed, not whether climate change drove the weakening of the Gulf Stream.

happytiger• 3 years ago

I’ll take “Things that make me go Oh Shit” for 1000, Alex.

bloopernova4• 3 years ago

I know it's naive of me to hope, but I hope that if a large part of the "western" world is affected by the gulf stream weakening then more definitive action will be taken against climate change.

Something related in the novel Project Hail Mary affected me greatly: "I've run the best models I have. Crops are going to fail. The global staple crops are wheat, barley, millet, potatoes, soy, and most important of all, rice. All of them are pretty sensitive about temperature ranges. If your rice paddy freezes over, the rice dies. If your potato farm floods, the potatoes die. And if your wheat farm experiences ten times normal humidity, it gets fungal parasites and dies."

Sure, we may not be looking at freezing rice paddies, but flooding is absolutely affecting people all over the world due to the warmer air holding more moisture.

Not at all a happy thought, I'm sorry.

myshpa5• 3 years ago

more definitive action will be taken against climate change

a) our problem is not only the climate change, but overshoot / polycrisis

b) there is a profit to be made even from the collapse, maybe bigger than ever

Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.

bloopernova4• 3 years ago

Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.

I don't want you to be correct, but I fear that you are. My heart breaks thinking about it. My stepdaughter is 23, and she's going to live through some very tough times.

People in positions of power and influence seem to think they can flee to New Zealand and life will continue as before. I don't know how to disabuse them of that notion.

SirMaster2• 3 years ago

So if it’s inevitable, what are the possible positive effects?

Are there regions that benefit from the changes that will happen to the weather?

New places that can be used to grow things, new places that might be more appealing to live than it is now?

Should we start looking at transitioning to the changes that you say are inevitable?

p1mrx2• 3 years ago

Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.

For now, American citizens can ask congress to support a carbon fee and dividend [1], which would create a financial incentive for the system to dismantle itself. There are few forces in the world more powerful than individuals deciding to save money.

[1] https://citizensclimatelobby.org/get-loud-take-action/energy...

lacrimacida5• 3 years ago

Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system

Oh well, the system may simply collapse and not be able and it won’t be pretty. But that will be a starting point for rebuilding.

Yoric2• 3 years ago

Sadly, we have reached a stage at which change is much harder – first because we've waited way too long, secondly because the West is currently faced with a war (which might be in the process of blowing up into a world war, we'll see), a financial crisis and a democratic crisis.

So... I'm not optimistic.

graemep2• 3 years ago

It is increasingly out of control of the western world: most CO2 emissions are now coming from Asia - and the current trend is falling emissions in the west, more than offset by rising emissions in the rest of the world.

Some countries (China and Russia) see advantages in warming for themselves (shipping through the arctic for both, increasing agricultural land area for both).

I generated a little graph showing the trends (using Our World In Data) and wrote a few comments a while back:

https://pietersz.co.uk/2023/03/co2-emissions-will-keep-risin...

bloopernova4• 3 years ago

Good god. That's a sobering graph.

helij• 3 years ago

This[0] paints slightly different picture about 'rest of the world', especially China.

[0]https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-pe...

anonymousiam5• 3 years ago

This is an El Niño year. https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino

El Niño can cause these effects. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

beowulfey• 3 years ago

El Niño has nothing to do with ocean currents in the Atlantic?

this_steve_j• 3 years ago

The study looked at almost 40 years worth of observational data from multiple correlated sources. That is one of its contributions relative to similar studies that looked at fewer sources of measurements, or used different methods.

anonymousiam5• 3 years ago

Given that polar sea ice peaked in 1979, but decades before had minimums below anything recorded since, and this study begins with 1982 data, I don't see how they can claim such certainty.

iamflimflam1• 3 years ago

Climate change is one of the reasons that I'm actually glad that we didn't have children. When I talk to people that have children and understand what is happening it ends up being quite depressing.

lacrimacida5• 3 years ago

I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted, perhaps you’re sees as selfish which I don’t share. I do have kids and am indeed horrified for them. I too may look selfish to others but in all honesty when you have skin in the game it the reaction is more intense.

osigurdson2• 3 years ago

What is the point of being horrified for your children? It will not make them stronger or more successful in an uncertain future.

graemep2• 3 years ago

Compared to Europe in the 20th century with two world wars? Quite a lot of the rest of the world now?

The world not being in great shape globally, does not necessarily mean individuals not having good lives.

New study confirms gulf stream weakening

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