Joel on Software: Anecdotes

http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2008/11/18.html

by twampss • 18 years ago

107 64 18 years ago

pg• 18 years ago

A lot of essays are extrapolated anecdotes. It's not an intrinsically evil form. You just have to do it right.

apu• 18 years ago

But it seems that to "do it right," the writer must be able to pick the right anecdotes and draw the right conclusions from them. This is probably close to impossible if he's not an expert in the area. And if the writer's an expert, then he should be able to provide other (non-anecdotal) evidence to support his claims as well.

I think that's why many of these books are so frustrating to read -- they seem to rely almost completely on anecdotes, without any sort of underlying data to look at long-term/overarching trends/themes. Thus, instead of saying, "here are various data, including these representative anecdotes about some of them, and so we can see that my theory is true," these writers usually say "this is my theory, and look how well these carefully chosen anecdotes match it!"

ntoshev• 18 years ago

A lot of expertise is not based on scientific statistics, but rather on the sample of problems the expert encounters and his intuition.

spolsky3• 18 years ago

If you have real data, and used the anecdote to illustrate it, you're doing it right.

If you give us the anecdote, but don't extrapolate to wild grand theories, you're doing it right... simultaneously telling an interesting story and giving people more data points to build up their own understanding of how the world works.

If you give us an anecdote, then tag on some theory so that the anecdote isn't mere storytelling, trying to make the anecdote more than it really is, it's deception (at best), or, at the very least, talking about something you know nothing about.

And all these anecdotes and know-nothing books, blog posts, and articles are crowding out real, genuine stories and useful knowledge.

DaniFong3• 18 years ago

There are many theories that Gladwell's book ties together, and there's some pretty serious data on each of them. I know three, and all of this book I've read are excerpts. Each of his books includes a reading list and citations, and I don't think this will be any different. In particular, page 10 of Flynn's book is worth reading. It is not merely Gladwell's hypothesis.

Terman et. al's studies of gifted children (http://books.google.com/books?id=MXwVAAAAIAAJ&printsec=f...)

Sherar et. al's study of physical maturity in hockey player development (http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a778078133~...)

Flynn's book "On Intelligence" and review of the growing IQ of the worldwide population and ethnographic studies of Chinese. (http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=qvBipuypY...)

I don't think one should claim an insufficient justification of his hypotheses without actually examining the justification thoroughly.

Oftentimes, for Gladwell in particular, people claim that he's being unrigorous, imprecise, or incomplete. He's not being incomplete. He's being concise. If he weren't concise, almost nobody would pay any attention. Almost nobody would learn anything from him. And almost nobody would, wanting to learn more, have the opportunity to follow the reference list that he carefully puts out. Which I guess few people do, anyway.

bokonist• 18 years ago

Most non-fiction books and essays are collections of anecdotes plus a guiding interpretation. Data (as in statistics) is hard to come by and rarely reliable. And without the interpretation, you simply have a bunch of mindless facts. The world has an infinite number of facts. Selecting facts and arranging them in a coherent interpretation is what most writing is about. Even the driest history textbook is mostly a work of interpretation.

Still, something about both Friedman and Gladwell really bothers me. I think it is simply that I believe their theories are mostly wrong or useless. It's not the style or methodology that is the problem, but the results.

run4yourlives4• 18 years ago

I think you're setting an unattainable goal that would make for an extremely boring read. You might enjoy statistics that much, but most people don't.

Every single one of us is a collection of anecdotes, personal experiences and gathered data. Every single viewpoint ever held by every single person is a theory based on such a collection.

You aren't honestly suggesting that those opinions that are based more on the first two than the latter are completely invalid, thus unworthy of being shared?

Sure, books like the ones you describe - and in fact I'd posit at least 80% of your own blog posts, if not more - are more heavily invested in anecdote than they are proper data. They, and the conclusions they present are nonetheless valid pieces of information and help build a balanced view that is continually evolving.

The world is simply too complex a place to gather hard data on every possible subject matter before forming an opinion or articulating a theory. Some of the most outlandish theories in history - evolution, string theory, climate change all come to mind - start from anecdote and observation prior to being supported by hard facts and abundant data.

timr2• 18 years ago

Essays aren't science, and shouldn't be held to the same intellectual standard. They don't have to be self-contained packets of truth, because we are reading them to be entertained, and are supposed to be discerning consumers of information, capable of filtering out others' over-generalizations and strained metaphors.

Obviously, it's best if an essay is both truthful and entertaining, but if an author decides to trade scientific precision to achieve a more vibrant story, that's fine with me. The world is far too big to stick to the facts.

bpyne• 18 years ago

I'm not trying to be a wise guy but can you define "real" data?

jackchristopher• 18 years ago

It's implicit in the form. Mediums can bend but they break. The hard part is figuring out where.

Essays make you generalize; they're short. But generalizations need interpretation.

And if you really want to know something, you read a technical paper or do it yourself.

I could go on about this in comment but won't; Comments want to be witty.

Agathos• 18 years ago

You mean, "I was on a bus, complaining about Thomas Friedman, when the driver looked back and said, 'A lot of essays are extrapolated anecdotes. It's not an intrinsically evil form.' And I realized it was true. You just have to do it right."

run4yourlives4• 18 years ago

On Sunday Dave Winer defined "great blogging" as "people talking about things they know about, not just expressing opinions about things they are not experts in." Can we get some more of that, please? Thanks.

Irony, defined. :-) I kid.

I think Joel's problem here is that he missed the point where any of these guys claimed to be doing anything more than making a bunch of observations. Galdwell certainly isn't science, but I don't think he proclaims to be either.

I haven't read his newest book, but certainly his thesis is at odds with the idea (the one we truly want to love) that the only thing separating the haves from have nots is desire and work ethic. We're all over saying this is common sense, but then we find it outrageous that this could have an affect on any one particular outcome.

Gladwell's ultimate theory I suppose is that his observations should make us question how our society functions overall (again, haven't read the book yet). I guess that forces us to look at things in a way we often don't enjoy.

jwilliams• 18 years ago

> I think Joel's problem here is that he missed the point where any of these guys claimed to be doing anything more than making a bunch of observations. Galdwell certainly isn't science, but I don't think he proclaims to be either.

Well I'm going to compound it by adding my observations :)

I've got to say, in my own experience, I like anecdotes that are war-stories best. A critical self-analysis often is full of insights for others... The most gripping, amusing and insightful talks I've seen have often been "here's how a large project detonated on us".

Unfortunately, in my experience (I end up at a lot of SOA, Cloud, Web/2.0 type events) these are quite rare for a variety of reasons . You tend to get more of the hypothesis/external critique - which by and large I find a lot less valuable.

Anyway, that's my anecdote on anecdotes :)

Tichy2• 18 years ago

"Galdwell certainly isn't science, but I don't think he proclaims to be either."

The problem is that the majority of people will think it is science. It is written in a book, so it has to be true.

run4yourlives4• 18 years ago

The stupidity of some people can hardly be blamed on the author of the book.

wensing• 18 years ago

isn't science must be the new intellectual attack cliché.

Would someone care to define this proper science?

ojbyrne• 18 years ago

The 4 Hour Work Week is when this whole genre jumped the shark. And I have not read that either. I've met Tim Ferris in bars. That was enough.

sharkfish2• 18 years ago

It kills me how the Gladwell book brought this out of Joel. Nobody wants to be told their success is a good part luck and timing. They all want to believe it is because they are smarter and worked harder.

So suddenly the software world's number one anecdotal blowhard decides to slam another blowhard. Okay. Whatever.

spolsky3• 18 years ago

Um, lemme see if I understand here, what you're saying... Are you claiming that (a) I'm successful, and (b) I think that I'm successful because I'm smarter and worked harder and (c) Malcolm Gladwell thinks I'm successful because of good luck and timing and that (d) therefore I'm mad at Gladwell's new book and that (e) therefore I decided to slam it? Is that your theory?

sharkfish2• 18 years ago

1. I'm saying your timing is suspicious. 2. My own anecdotal experience tells me successful people want to believe they earned their success through brains and hard work 3. Gladwell states that a good portion of success is due to hard work but that you have to be lucky enough to be able to put in the 10,000 hours at the right time and of course, have the luxury of putting in that kind of dedication

So bottom line, he really flatters successful people on the surface, while making the successful folk equal to the rest of us.

I don't think you are "mad" at Gladwell. I just think the motivation is strong and possibly an unconscious aversion to accepting that your success may be in huge part due to luck.

But then. Take with a huge grain of salt some asshole spouting off on a forum.

Believe it or not, you are one of my heroes, and I never seriously expected YOU of all people to be reading this.

Cheers to you and don't stop doing what you do. We are a better field because of it.

thomasmallen• 18 years ago

If I saw a rabbit right now, I'd certainly give chase.

pchristensen• 18 years ago

You've worked harder than most people I know, but didn't you a) get the first PC in Israel, b) go to Yale, c) get early '90s Microsoft stock, d) have a house you could use as an office when you started your business, e) define the category of software blogging by getting there first, and f) start a profitable company during a tech slump, giving you an advantage in hiring?

Joel Spolsky: Hard work + good luck = success! You could be Gladwell's next anecdote.

planzero• 18 years ago

Your data is correct, but you've got it backwards. People who believe they can be successful by working harder generally do become successful. The inverse holds as well.

Aside: watch for when people say "whatever." It means they care very much about something.

Hexstream• 18 years ago

Whatever.

DaniFong3• 18 years ago

The book review is impressively hypocritical. She ruthlessly disdains Malcolm Gladwell's use of selectively chosen biographical examples and anecdotal evidence, and then proceeds to selectively cherry-pick examples, to optimally infuriate politically correct sensibilities. She then lampoons him for incompleteness.

She mentions only one of the many larger studies that he cites, the Terman study. Was the Terman study wide ranging? Yes. Does it fit Gladwell's hypothesis that the opportunities one is offered matter? Yes. Does she show it to be incorrect? No. Does she attack any part of it? No. Does she mention any of the other studies that Gladwell mentions? That major hockey players are nearly all born in the first three months of the year? Ericsson's studies on expertise? Flynn's analysis on historic chinatowns? No!

If I present a theory, and back it up with a bunch of other data points, one should not be able to pick out a single data point, claim that I am basing my loose hypothesis on anecdotal evidence, and say I am irresponsible. This is what is being done.

timr2• 18 years ago

"The book review is impressively hypocritical. She ruthlessly disdains Malcolm Gladwell's use of selectively chosen biographical examples and anecdotal evidence, and then proceeds to selectively cherry-pick examples, to optimally infuriate politically correct sensibilities. She then lampoons him for incompleteness."

You've pretty much described 95% of the fun of reading the New York Times' book review. It's a public forum for less-famous writers to snipe at more-famous ones -- it's practically the first blog.

astrec• 18 years ago

Indeed. And Michiko Kakutani happens to be somewhat famous for her negative pieces on famous writers.

antiform• 18 years ago

I generally agree with what you're saying, and it's amusing how she proceeds to do something that is essentially what she is criticizing Gladwell for doing himself, but I give benefit of the doubt to the critic, because there is a remarkable difference in medium. It's a book review, not a complete refutation. She has about a dozen paragraphs to summarize and critique 300+ pages. Is there enough space to complete address even one of the cases brought up in the book? I think not.

I've read the book. It's entertaining, but I don't think it's as well-developed as Blink or The Tipping Point. I think Gladwell is a good writer who serves a previously unfilled role as a popular popularizer of academic work. However, every time I read his work, I wish that experts of the fields he reports on would also write popular expositions that could be consumed by an audience like that of the New Yorker.

I know that the evidence backing some of what I was reading was sketchy at best. Asian children score higher on math tests because their ancestors labored in rice fields? Please. It doesn't detract from the entertainment value of the book, but I would think twice before believing what I read in the book was indicative of reality.

As for your theory argument, I would have to disagree in many different cases. Suppose that you only chose to include data points that support your argument. Then people have every right to pick an alternate data point, claim that your study is faulty and that you're being irresponsible. This is exactly what many of his detractors are pointing out, and it is a point that is often missed.

The primary argument against the book and the Gladwell style of investigation is that he tends not to include or even discuss studies or points or examples that do not support his argument. This is understandable, since he is attempt to speak to a popular audience and does not have the space to discuss every relevant study if he wants to run through all of his cases, but by doing this, he makes many smart people feel like he is trying to pull the wool over their eyes.

DaniFong3• 18 years ago

"However, every time I read his work, I wish that experts of the fields he reports on would also write popular expositions that could be consumed by an audience like that of the New Yorker."

I wish that were true too. I am trying in my own blog to present my work in both a form accessible to the literate public and helpful for researchers (though I have neither published most of my work yet, nor attracted an audience the size of the New Yorker so you will just have to be patient!)

Arguably, Flynn did his best with "What is intelligence?" but people probably ran for the hills at the first formula. Such is life. But there are at least a few scientists who write for the public audience, Dawkins, Dyson, Hawking and Pinker perhaps most relevantly today, that do attract a wide readership. I honestly think Gladwell does a better job presenting things straight than Hawking.

The rice field argument, while apparently silly, doesn't strike me as particularly wrong. I'm merely unconvinced.

Does Gladwell in this book, more than his others, draw theories from selected scattered 'outliers,' more often than reasonable? I do not know how far he goes.

jerf• 18 years ago

I'm coming around to the point of view that when somebody complains about simplification or incompleteness, that they should simply be ignored. As long as the simplification isn't actively wrong and the incompleteness isn't deceptive by leaving out contrary evidence, one must be aware that all forms of work are limited.

Jeff Atwood took a lot of flack in his recent NP post simply because he dared describe the problem in non-mathematical terms. He may also have been wrong, but I am inclined to think his explanation was (correctly) too simplified to really be wrong... but still, right now I'm talking about the people who flamed him for failing to include a complete computer science textbook in his blog post.

Yes, I am so sorry that in my blog post ruminating on how unit testing seems to affect my Python coding that I did not include a complete, correct Grand Unified Theory of the universe complete with how to apply it at the macroscopic level and use it to predict who will win the Presidential election in 2016 and create a superhuman-intelligent AI. At some point you to understand that any given work has boundaries.

I've become sensitive to this because I actually have fallen for the trap of trying to be too inclusive, and it's worthless. Stop complaining about it. Or, at the very least, when complaining that work X should have included Y, you should say what should have been cut instead and why it would be an actual improvement in the end product, preferably beyond "I would like it better".

JacobAldridge• 18 years ago

An Anecdote can have a place and a purpose - heck, that's most of my blog.

But the plural of 'Anecdote' is not 'Data'.

aswanson2• 18 years ago

What is data more than a plurality of anecdotes?

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=239392

hugh• 18 years ago

A plurality of anecdotes sampled without bias?

That's the problem: interesting data points become anecdotes while uninteresting data points don't, which is why you can't reconstruct the data from the anecdotes.

mattmaroon3• 18 years ago

This hit the nail on the head as to why I don't care for Gladwell's writings. I'm tired of telling smart friends that I think his books are largely useless (and incredibly boring) and getting the same look I would if I said that Jesus and L Ron Hubbard came to me in a dream and gave me a great recipe for chicken chili.

Though unlike Chris Anderson, at least the anecdotes Gladwell bases his stories on are true, rather than mistaken third-party analysis.

markessien3• 18 years ago

What writing then would you say was similar enough to Gladwells to be in the same genre, but better in your opinion?

mattmaroon3• 18 years ago

Michael Pollan.

shabda• 18 years ago

Isn't most of what most of Gladwell writes a genralised case of "Alien's cause global warming." http://www.michaelcrichton.net/speech-alienscauseglobalwarmi...

cousin_it• 18 years ago

Great article, thanks for the link.

lutorm• 18 years ago

I was surprised to discover that who we have to blame for all pseudoscience, according to Crichton, is Frank Drake, whose office I happen to be borrowing! ;-)

bluishgreen• 18 years ago

Ummmm..Gladwell is not Friedman and we know Joel likes to rant. Blink opened a lively conversation, so did Tipping point.

DenisM• 18 years ago

The shoe is on the other foot now, isn't it?

Joel written many an essay with sole basis in anecdote.

markessien3• 18 years ago

A lot of the advances we have in science came not because people rigorously studied data and then came to conclusions, but because people had flashes of insight, and then looked for data to validate or invalidate their opinions.

We need this variety of uninformed opinion because it is from one of those nuggets that new things will be invented.

Science is just philosophy combined with statistical data.

projectileboy• 18 years ago

Holy fucking crap, are you kidding me? Joel, you really want me to choose between your writing and Gladwell's?

KWD• 18 years ago

From his quote of Kakutani: "Much of what Mr. Gladwell has to say about superstars is little more than common sense"

This is what has always bothered me Gladwell's writings, and when I see someone list 'Blink' as one of their favorite books it pretty much tells me they are someone of little substance. Gladwell is simply a formula writer (and his speeches follow a similar format) and I find it amazing he has extended his popularity this far.

gjm112• 18 years ago

I haven't read any of Gladwell's books, so can't comment on how formulaic he is; but I wouldn't be in the least surprised if being a "formula writer" were an advantage in becoming popular.

petercooper• 18 years ago

This is about as dumb as picking holes in Mythbusters episodes. These sorts of books are not designed to be "hard" science, packed with raw data, and reliable, but dull, outcomes.

Books like those you see in the airport, the type that Gladwell, Godin, and the like write, are designed to be science-entertainment. It's just science (or marketing, in Seth Godin's case) as entertainment.

If these sorts of books actually get people interested in and reading about science in the first place, it's awesome! There's no way the general public will read dry academic papers, no matter how scientifically valid they are. If people build up an interest from somewhat exaggerated but entertaining books that introduce certain scientific principles, we are improved as a society.

jimbokun2• 18 years ago

"Such assessments turn individuals into pawns of their cultural heritage, just as Mr. Gladwell’s emphasis on class and accidents of historical timing plays down the role of individual grit and talent to the point where he seems to be sketching a kind of theory of social predestination, determining who gets ahead and who does not — and all based not on persuasive, broadband research, but on a flimsy selection of colorful anecdotes and stories."

1. We have just spent an entire presidential campaign during which we were reminded at every turn (and rightfully so) that the gap between rich and poor is growing, and this seems to dovetail nicely with a "theory of social predestination." Having anecdotes and data to try to explain the mechanism for how this works seems a worthwhile undertaking.

2. Why does she want Gladwell to research high speed Internet connections?

arnorhs• 18 years ago

now, that's just funny :-) LMAO

Joel on Software: Anecdotes

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