Greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into Northern Hemisphere winter

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

by geox • 3 years ago

177 105 3 years ago

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

duluca• 3 years ago

What does this mean?

yamazakiwi• 3 years ago

The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter.

I was confused by the post's title but it appears El Nino is 90% likely to increase temperatures this year from May - Winter. I don't know how different this is from a normal El Nino, nor do I know if 90% is higher or lower than average.

samcheng• 3 years ago

What El Niño means depends wildly on where you live.

In California, particularly Southern California, an El Niño winter is more likely wetter than usual. The 1997-1998 winter comes to mind.

These are all statistical predictions based on previous years, and any individual year can vary wildly from average. In addition, climate change makes historical data increasingly irrelevant. So, take any forecast of the weather six months into the future with a grain of salt!

russellbeattie• 3 years ago

I first moved to San Francisco in early 1997. I was absolutely flabbergasted at the amount of rain we got that winter. It just never stopped raining. For months. My distant memory of it was that it started raining just before Thanksgiving (when I had a cousin visit, which is why I remember) and then just didn't stop until like May of 1998. I just looked it up: 18 days of rain in November, 10 in December, 22 in January, 20 in February, 14 in March, 10 in April and 14 in May. Nice to know my 25 year old memory wasn't that bad.

I went to Tahoe for the first time that winter and the snowpack was absolutely absurd. Like 20 feet. The ski area parking lot I went to had a wall of snow carved out next to the cars. I have a sideways panoramic photo taken of myself next to it to remember it by.

crayboff• 3 years ago

National forecasters said on Thursday that the climate pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South America, more winter storms in the U.S West and South, and droughts in southern Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected to make its official return within a few months and has a strong chance of lasting the rest of the year. > El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.

From: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/

rufus_foreman• 3 years ago

"El Niño usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Niña does the opposite — a dynamic that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has compared to a seesaw.

El Niño's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream south. When that happens, the NOAA says, "areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.""

-- https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-nino-2023-weath...

thomascgalvin• 3 years ago

From CBS News[1] :

El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.

From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]:

El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.

As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual.

[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/

[2]https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

GalenErso• 3 years ago

What causes El Niño to happen every few years? What mechanism drives the phenomenon? I was thinking maybe sun spots, but sun spots have 11 year cycles on average, so I don't think it's the cause. Why doesn't El Niño happen every year, like hurricanes?

m3kw9• 3 years ago

Really, what does it mean?

nomel4• 3 years ago

Even though it's a known cyclical pattern, there's just enough time between where people forget, so the news can sensationalize it.

For example, the last strong one was 2015-2016.

IG_Semmelweiss• 3 years ago

You failed to add the two most important things on the subject about its impact worldwide

1) Certain regions, particularly those riding the equatorial line that also have wet seasons will experience (rather, are experiencing right now) extreme wet seasons with heavy flooding , for example in south america, such as Peru, Brazil and COlombia. The wet season causes an extreme cascading effect in those societies by the spike in cases of water-related (mosquito larvae) disease like dengue, cholera and malaria.

2) The same countries will experience drought in the normally quieter, "winter" season. That wrecks agricultural yield. Watch the price of bananas and similar water-intensive perennials , at your local supermarket early next year. For countries near major river flows (amazon in particular) that are not diversified in power sources and heavily dependant in hydro for power , they can get really in trouble and experience brownouts further damaging their GDP. This is rarer since most countries learn their lesson after the 1-brownout in a decade..but you never know.

whynotkeithberg• 3 years ago

Here in Northern California it means we've had a lot more rain, and it's been much cooler than usual as well as getting snow to a much lower level than usual (around 800 feet). Normally it would have already been 100 or so for a month already. however, today is first day to really hit 90 and we just had some rain last week. Honestly, I'm hoping it means we have a more mild & wet summer but that I'm not sure of. Anything other than the fires would be nice though.

MarkMarine2• 3 years ago

The unfortunate side effect of El Niño is to further destabilize the marine environment off shore.

This isn’t all El Niño, we lost the sunflower starfish which preyed on urchins and kept them in check to a disease, but the warm surface waters are another bad situation on top of low kelp cover, urchins out of control, no predators for the urchins, etc. if we don’t have kelp forests off shore, the environment will be totally different and many species that depend on the kelp will disappear.

rootw0rm• 3 years ago

even here in southern CA (Anza) we had snow in March. though this article is telling us what next winter is going to be like I think...

nomel4• 3 years ago

No, that was the end of El Nina [1][2]. El Niño is still on its way [1][2][3].

[1] "Neutral" brought the atmospheric rivers: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/march-2023-enso-...

[2] Blue Nina, red nino: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitorin...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRU1XYfjVF4

mastazi• 3 years ago

From Australia's BOM [1]

* Winter-Spring (June-November): Dryer than usual in eastern Australia, warmer than usual in southern Australia

* Summer-Autumn (December-May): Warmer than usual with average rainfall in eastern Australia, dryer conditions in Cape York and Tasmania, and wetter conditions in the southern part of Western Australia

[1] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

PS BOM agrees with NOAA that El Niño is coming http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Outloo...

Jedd2• 3 years ago

Inevitable, but disappointing of course - I had hoped we'd have something closer to a 5y cycle, as the previous couple of dry cycles were much longer than this most recent wet(ish) one.

I'm 150km inland, just north of Sydney AU latitude (150E, 33S).

The very averaged annual rainfall in our area is 600mm (about the same as London, about half of Sydney).

In 2021 we had 910mm, and 2022 we had 966mm. So far this year we've had 192mm - and given January is our wettest period, that's way under both long-term average and recent trend.

nabogh• 3 years ago

It's worth noting that the Americans here will likely experience wetter than normal conditions (region dependent). I'm just happy Australia might have a year without so much rain. Might be a bad fire season in the end of the year though.

ttymck• 3 years ago

In Los Angeles, anyway, where as you may know, it "never rains", there's been what residents can only describe comparatively as "non-stop rain" since the new year.

Where it should be regularly mid-70s by this time of year, it's stayed around high-50s since January.

Preparing for my trip to London, I was planning for a wetter and colder climate than I'm accustomed to. It turns out it's actually nicer weather in London than in LA right now.

hui-zheng• 3 years ago

need to learn it in a context.

what's what was the chance of El Nino and How does it change over the past years?

nomel4• 3 years ago

It's been recorded since 1950: https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

But, first evidence goes back 13,000 years [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño

pveierland2• 3 years ago

Global sea surface temperature for all of 2023 have been above 2 standard deviations of the 1982-2011 mean:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

Warming temperatures seem linked to several major climate tipping points. This new study suggests it may disable the global ocean circulation system within just three decades:

https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulat...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-w

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_...

bmitc2• 3 years ago

It's amazing but harrowing that we can study this stuff but somehow can't get it together enough to get along and stop destroying the planet.

0zemp2c• 3 years ago

"raising awareness" doesn't require personal sacrifice

atleastoptimal• 3 years ago

Those with the power to change things have the power to suffer no negative effects.

lotsofpulp5• 3 years ago

There are quite a few billion people looking forward to the convenience of their own vehicle and living in their own detached house and visiting tropical destinations and eating avocados all year. I do not think any leader is going to be able to placate the population by telling them to consume less to maybe help future generations.

helge9210• 3 years ago

Planet isn't going to be destroyed. Some areas might become uninhabitable (like Sahara desert or Arabian peninsula), but some other areas might end up better suited for human life or more desirable.

74022• 3 years ago

Global sea surface temperature for all of 2023 have been above 2 standard deviations of the 1982-2011 mean

I'm not arguing about the consequences of this, but it doesn't mean much to say that a normal distribution exceeds the mean by 2 standard deviations 2.1% of the time - that's mathematics, not climatology. It's been about 41 years since 1982, and 1 / 41 = 2.4%.

It's the positive trend that's significant, not the simple fact of variation.

pveierland2• 3 years ago

I get your point, however in this case the trend is clearly positive:

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...

https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/sea-surface...

adammarples• 3 years ago

I might be wrong but I don't think that data on a clear linear trend is actually normally distributed at all

tayo42• 3 years ago

surprised, i need to dig into the links, but California had a cold winter this year and even last year I remember the water being on the chilly side. I meant to dig into this a bit more, but bouys off the coast showed the water was 3 degrees colder then last year. mid 50s in san diego.

brutusborn• 3 years ago

That study doesn’t say that global circulation will be disabled. And the article suggests that fears of circulation stopping in the northern hemisphere, based on previous observations, were overblown.

Climate is changing, but no one is predicting global scale tipping points to be reached until next century.

inson• 3 years ago

what does that mean for PNW? Dryer or more rainy season?

bmitc2• 3 years ago

From what I've read, for any location and particularly coastal locations, it means less normal weather and more and more extreme weather. For example, I know some areas that are getting less and less frequent snow days, but more and more frequent snowstorms. So average snowfall stays relatively above average but occurs only on a few days. (I.e., snows like three days all winter but 8-20 inches each time.)

So I would guess the answer to

Dryer or more rainy season?

is yes.

lotsofpulp5• 3 years ago

Summer has already arrived a whole month earlier than usual in the PNW.

seabrookmx• 3 years ago

We basically skipped spring here in BC. Late winter/early summer.

noahtallen• 3 years ago

It was pretty rainy here in Seattle up until last week. So Juneuary is still on the table ;)

mynameisash• 3 years ago

Before I saw your question, I asked the all-knowing (/s) ChatGPT, "What effect does El Niño have on weather in the Pacific Northwest?". Its answer:

El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This can have a significant impact on weather patterns worldwide, including the Pacific Northwest region of the United States.
During an El Niño event, the Pacific Northwest typically experiences warmer and drier conditions than usual. This is because the warmer waters of the Pacific Ocean can cause changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, leading to a shift in the jet stream. This, in turn, can result in a decrease in the frequency and intensity of storms that typically bring rain and snow to the region during the winter months.
However, it's important to note that the specific impacts of El Niño on the Pacific Northwest can vary depending on a number of factors, including the strength and duration of the El Niño event and other climate patterns that may be occurring at the same time. Therefore, it's always a good idea to check local weather forecasts and stay informed about any potential impacts of El Niño on your area.

reiderrider• 3 years ago

Went surfing in the Pacific Ocean this morning and it was freezing. Theory was the current swell was swirling the deeper colder water. So many variations such as swell frequency/power could throw these results off.

steve_adams_86• 3 years ago

May isn't a particularly warm month for pacific waters, at least here in British Columbia. I think it's probably still around 9°C? I'd still wear my 7mm wetsuit to dive right now.

fuddle• 3 years ago

I have a feeling that after a summer of heat waves exacerbated by El Niño, more people will start taking climate change seriously.

eschulz• 3 years ago

I wouldn't bet that a summer of heat waves will result in such a change. Maybe after a winter of heatwaves...

myshpa• 3 years ago

More likely snow in the summer and failed harvests. Or a sudden shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. That could wake some people.

Moldoteck• 3 years ago

More people will buy air conditioners and will increase electricity demand, that will be satisfied by burning coal and gas

tintedfireglass• 3 years ago

In India this summer was really cold compared to previous years. normally the temperatures hover around 45C but this time it barely went above 40C. And it even rained all over the place in summer. Not sure if this was some freak incident or is it related to ENSO(El nino southern oscillations) though. can't find enough information on the topic.

lanina• 3 years ago

Since no one has commented on it yet: though I don't have data on hand, I wonder what is the correlation, if any, with possibly decreasing sulfur dioxide emissions (e.g. from diesel or fuel oil), due perhaps to purposeful emissions reduction regulations, as well as to overall reduction in logistics activity leading to lower emissions.

switch0072• 3 years ago

With the UK economic outlook not looking good this year, and high energy prices, a snowy and cold winter will be very bad news.

permalac• 3 years ago

Care to explain to someone who just landed in UK and has no context on how el niño afects UK?

Does that mean I have to prepare for a winter from today till summer 24?

switch0072• 3 years ago

AIUI our winters are colder and drier, and prone to heavier snowfall.

Just google el niño Northern Europe

Jedd2• 3 years ago

There's a theory that the Australian bush fires - absolutely breathtaking during end of 2019, early 2020 - helped extend this cycle:

"A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2"

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adg1213

Greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into Northern Hemisphere winter

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