Marc Andreessen: Predictions for 2012

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57345138-93/marc-andreessen-predictions-for-2012-and-beyond/

by jamesjyu • 15 years ago

85 26 15 years ago

news.cnet.com

lobster45• 15 years ago

Those are all safe predictions. Nothing revolutionary about it.

Marc is a smart dude but those predictions are fairly obvious going forward. We are going to see an absolute explosion in smart phones but the high reoccurring fees is the main reason why consumers stay away from buying smart phones. Lets hope the monthly fees start to come down ( will likely keep climbing though, gotta love VZ, ATT etc.)

finisterre• 15 years ago

> Marc is a smart dude but those predictions > are fairly obvious going forward.

He's probably smart enough not to give away his best predictions.

rscale• 15 years ago

In his industry, predictions about 2012 are irrelevant. Predictions about 2016 are where he'll make his money.

cpeterso• 15 years ago

But as a VC, wouldn't he want to use his best predictions to run a successful VC fund?

scottkduncan• 15 years ago

This might describe the U.S., but prices for smartphones in the developing world have a different starting point. They are forced to be cost competitive (both for the handset and voice/data) from the outset in order to get any initial traction. The Huawei Ideos (Android) has been quite successful in Kenya where it sells for about $80 with an initial allotment of minutes and data, which users than can then reload as necessary.

Huawei has sacrificed on tech specs to be cost competitive. I wouldn't be surprised if future entry-level smartphones in the developing world hold the technology relatively constant and focus instead on getting the viable price point even lower, which is the reverse of what we see in the U.S. where the price stays relatively constant but the handset technology constantly improves.

ippisl• 15 years ago

Spreadtrum releases platforms for $40 smartphones:

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4231253/Spreadtrum-r...

18pfsmt4• 15 years ago

I'm not sure if you noticed or your parent was edited, but it specifically says "high reoccurring fees." I share this sentiment, and, therefore, only have an iPod Touch/ cheap phone. I pay $33/mo (incl. tax) for 1k min+1k sms+200MB data). I'm mostly near a secure wifi connection and the limitations of this set-up are worth the savings.

To be clear, upfront costs have never been an issue for me, and I kind of wonder why the Android ecosystem has mostly failed to recognize this opportunity. Actually, I realize most people don't know how or want to bother with setting up proper SIP on a LAN (local SIP agent on router, etc.).

rdl• 15 years ago

Off-contract phones are really the only thing keeping T-Mobile alive now, I think. Those will just turn into smartphones vs. featurephones. Plus the whole non-USA market.

In 2012+, I could see $100-300 true smartphones, bought outright, or heavily subsidized by a non-telco (e.g. you get a BoA sponsored phone with an account with direct debit, or more realistically some more profitable, faster growing business like walmart).

Combine that with MVNO service through the sponsor, month to month. Or, free service if you make a minimum spend on another service -- e.g. free cellphone with $100/mo comcast, or if you spend >$1k/mo at Amazon.

Pretty similar to the Kindle now -- buy the device once (subsidized), make no or minimal ($79/yr) recurring payments, and then shift most of your discretionary and non-discretionary spending to that vendor.

msluyter• 15 years ago

Does anybody actually use Foursquare? My prediction, probably for some time after 2012 but sooner than we might expect, is that in reaction to the prevalence of social networking and sharing apps, the hot trend will be privacy apps that hide your location/social network/income/address/etc...

suking• 15 years ago

I think only VCs use it to broadcast that they are having meetings with important people in nice places to feed their egos. No one I know uses it.

LogicX• 15 years ago

Its wildly popular in the Boston area -- I use it many times a day. Works nice to meet up with friends when they're in the area, to learn tips about locations (i.e. recommended dishes at restaurants, info about Gluten Free offerings).

gyardley• 15 years ago

The first time I tried to use Foursquare, a couple years back, it did nothing for me, because I don't (usually) want to serendipitously meet up with people - if I'm with you, it's because we've planned it in advance. After a few months, I deleted my account.

A couple of months ago, I started using Foursquare again, because I wanted to understand their coupons / offers integration. So far I've been pleasantly surprised.

I still don't want to have unplanned meetups with friends who randomly happen to be near me, but I'm enjoying the savings and freebies I've been getting from places I happen to go to, which happens a lot more than I expected - often enough that I pull out my phone and check when I go somewhere.

So, yeah, I do use Foursquare, and I don't see that changing as long as it keeps saving me money.

keeptrying• 15 years ago

Exactly! Startup founders who don't like foursquare is a great example of "you are not your most important user". I'm pretty sure crowley never intended it to be used this way but was smart enough to realize the business need when it fell into his lap.

jedc• 15 years ago

Foursquare is slowly evolving to the point where it serves users as a recommendation app (exploring places to go near to your locations), tips for what to do/eat/drink when you're there, and some good deals/offers to seal the deal.

The game mechanics and checking in will soon be just a minor aspect of their business. (So privacy aspects just won't affect the income-generating side of their business.)

inerte• 15 years ago

Yes, I work with 12 other people, 6 check-in all the time-everywhere, and 2 others say they use to read reviews.

Majority in a minority? Maybe... but still used.

ed209• 15 years ago

I think people will still use 4sq with their location hidden as a sort of diary. Both 4sq and the user can still get value from this activity like recommendations, reminders, history of visits etc.

r00fus• 15 years ago

So a (rather successful) VC pimps his investment. Interesting, but not really "predictions" so much as promotions.

6ren• 15 years ago

Turn it around: why did he choose them to invest in? Because he predicted their growth.

You could say he put his money where his mouth is.

safeerm2• 15 years ago

My startup, mezz, is focused on the local businesses he was talking about. It's a mobile app and platform that allows people to discover and share what's happening nearby. http://www.mezz.com

18pfsmt4• 15 years ago

As such a late entry, I'm curious how you plan to differentiate yourselves from the likes of Foursquare and the others? I hope you do not take offense, but this isn't exactly a new idea.

safeerm2• 15 years ago

None taken. We're not focused on places or checkins. We're focused on hyperlocal things going on right now. Anyone can post something on mezz and it will broadcast to everyone locally.

It's more about the informal activities and events going on and letting anyone post. I don't think checkins are the solution for local.

marshallp• 15 years ago

He hasn't talked about any cool stuff like siri/majel, augmented reality, kinect, robots etc. Social networks and online stores, pretty dismal in the grand scheme of things.

Marc Andreessen: Predictions for 2012

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