Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine

https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statement-of-the-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-the-republic-of-poland-in-connection-with-the-statement-by-the-us-secretary-of-state-on-providing-airplanes-to-ukraine

by ceejayoz • 4 years ago

104 168 4 years ago

gov.pl

awb2• 4 years ago

Funny that they wanted the MIGs to go to Germany first and then given to the USA, in exchange for replacement jets.

It looks like a very thinly veiled attempt at denying direct involvement. Everyone knows those MIGs are going to be given to Ukraine.

Arnt2• 4 years ago

You can also interpret it as a way of saying "we're either in this together, or not".

isbvhodnvemrwvn7• 4 years ago

They come from Germany in the first place, Germany wanted to get rid of migs in early 2000s so they donated them to Poland for 1€.

jwilk• 4 years ago

https://defence24.pl/technologie/kto-przekaze-ukrainie-swoje... says Poland is not going to give away the German ones:

The former German planes are not only the most worn out, but also have been adapted by the Luftwaffe to the western standard, so it would be more difficult for Ukrainian pilots to control

mindslight5• 4 years ago

Scenario: Previously-Polish now-Ukrainian MIGs sitting at an airbase in eastern Poland waiting to be picked up by Ukrainian pilots. Russia sends a few longer range cruise missiles at the base, destroying the Ukrainian planes. What is NATO's next move?

Putin wants to test boundaries to find spongy contours. The more clear cut a situation is, the better.

karpierz• 4 years ago

Russia sends a few longer range cruise missiles at the base, to destroy the planes that were already part of the war.

And kill NATO personnel in the airbase. Russia has now murdered American and Polish soldiers on Polish soil. It's pretty clear cut what happens next.

bewaretheirs• 4 years ago

Ramstein is in Germany, not Poland.

3237• 4 years ago

What is NATO's next move?

NATO reciprocates hitting back with cruise missiles the originating place.

stickfigure• 4 years ago

NATO article 5 gets invoked, and we're all at war.

stjohnswarts5• 4 years ago

If Russia launches cruise missiles into Poland then their Ukraine effort will be immediately overrun with NATO and US troops, tanks, and aerial strikes and will have to retreat immediately. Russia can't win this unless they launch nukes and then it ends for all of us.

david4222• 4 years ago

That and the fact that the US statement was that it was a Polish decision as a sovereign nation to donate planes if they so choose, but the US would support whichever decision they took.

Nobody wants to technically be the excuse Putin needs to use his nukes or whatever he's going to do next. But what difference does it make, Putin is going to do whatever he wants, trying to tiptoe around these lines drawn in the sand isn't going to change things.

rasz4• 4 years ago

Poland learned how to deal with weasel US diplomacy. Nothing is set in stone, not even a signed piece of paper (Budapest Memorandum anyone?). Actions, not words matter.

When you read https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-admin-talks-polan...

The Biden administration is holding talks with Poland about a possible deal to help provide Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine, a White House spokesperson said.
The deal would involve Poland donating its old Russian-made MiG fighters to Ukraine, and then replacing them with the purchase of U.S.-made F-16 jets.
“We are working with the Poles on this issue and consulting with the rest of our NATO allies,” a White House spokesperson said.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday confirmed that the discussions are underway but said the timing is still unclear.

and at the same time those very "talks" are Blinken merely suggesting the possibility of working something later down the road "but we must act now", and you already got screwed by US to the tune of $10B on military deals (initial F-16 purchase), then you know to tread carefully.

Not to mention surprised pikachu face https://mobile.twitter.com/ak_mack/status/150129250400772096...

Undersecretary of State Toria Nuland, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, just said this statement was not pre-consulted with the U.S. Seems to have come as a bit of a surprise."

So Biden officials leak "advanced talks" to the press while Undersecretary of State doesnt know anything about it and is not in the loop.

EDIT: And there it is https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/296018... here come the weasel words:

"We will continue consulting with our Allies and partners about our ongoing security assistance to Ukraine, because, in fact, Poland's proposal shows just some of the complexities this issue presents.

We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland's proposal is a tenable one."

Typical US goading others to do the dirty work, but when push comes to shove "its complicated and untenable"

sidewndr462• 4 years ago

This seems like a win-win for them. Support the enemy of their enemy and get rid of hardware they can't really maintain any longer. Russia isn't going to be maintaining those fighter jets now that it knows all of Europe considers it a hostile power.

They need to buy fighters not dependent on Russia and the US is a logical place to turn to. The F-16 is likely to be well within their budget today, since they plan to purchase F-35s in the future anyways.

isbvhodnvemrwvn7• 4 years ago

F-16 is the only other type of fighters that Poland has, but giving up on those MIGs will reduce the number of active fighters to just around 50, that's a nearly 30% reduction and fewer than Ukraine had before the war. Given the delays in F-16 deliveries to other NATO countries, it would likely take some time for replacement to come in.

ceejayoz7• 4 years ago

The US has hundreds of F-16s mothballed in Arizona. I'd expect they're about to be busy reactivating a few dozen in the next couple of weeks.

ilamont• 4 years ago

The U.S. is selling F-16s that will shortly be delivered to Taiwan ... but those reportedly are not going to be diverted to Poland.

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202203070023

ceejayoz7• 4 years ago

The F-16 is likely to be well within their budget today

They already own ~50, so that's a safe assumption. I'd suspect this trade involves free replacements from the US, too.

croes• 4 years ago

All of Europe? Serbia begs to differ.

ceejayoz7• 4 years ago

https://www.axios.com/united-nations-ukraine-russia-141-5587...

141 countries vote to condemn Russia at UN
Between the lines: Serbia, which has close historical ties with Russia, surprised many observers by voting in favor of the resolution.

sidewndr462• 4 years ago

Alright, fair enough point. Belarus is safe for now.

pjc50• 4 years ago

Serbia have never been terribly keen on NATO since they intervened in Serbian genocide.

netsharc2• 4 years ago

Poland has been in NATO for a long time, I wonder how they've been maintaining their fleet before Feb 24...

akmarinov4• 4 years ago

Poland actually maintained them themselves and were sued by Russia for it.

pbreit• 4 years ago

What was this expected to accomplish beyond putting US in awkward position and further aggravating Putin? Why involve the US when that’s what triggered the war in the first place?

alphabettsy2• 4 years ago

The US triggered the war?

What is the alternative?

rasz4• 4 years ago

What was doing press rounds proclaiming you negotiated sending Mig planes with Poland and its a done deal while Polish politicians never heard from anybody but Blinken merely proposing such an idea meant to accomplish?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-admin-talks-polan...

"The Biden administration is holding talks with Poland about a possible deal to help provide Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine, a White House spokesperson said."

Imagine being Polish politician and learning from US media you are in some kind of talks while none are taking place. US is making Poland look like a fool and forcing its hand. This is the result.

sofixa• 4 years ago

get rid of hardware they can't really maintain any longer. Russia isn't going to be maintaining those fighter jets now that it knows all of Europe considers it a hostile power

Poland has been quite successfully maintaining their MiGs, and even tried selling their services and hardware to other countries ( IIRC Croatia), and got sued by Russia for reverse engineering.

lwneal• 4 years ago

Poland has 23 flyable MiG-29s, some of which are trainer aircraft. Other EU operators of the MiG-29 are Bulgaria and Slovakia, who have another 15-20 combined.

For comparison, at the start of the conflict Ukraine had about 70 fighters and Russia about 900.

[1] https://defence24.pl/technologie/kto-przekaze-ukrainie-swoje...

[2] https://twitter.com/komadovsky/status/1498403101258231830

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_militar...

hdjjhhvvhga2• 4 years ago

Ukraine started the conflict

Let's be precise here...

dantyti2• 4 years ago

Seems reasonable, considering how US officials have 'green lit' giving the planes to Ukraine.

The reluctance of Poland to do this directly is completely understandable, as it borders both Belarus and Russia,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶w̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶c̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶w̶a̶r̶ ̶(̶w̶h̶i̶c̶h̶ ̶c̶a̶n̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶i̶g̶n̶o̶r̶e̶d̶,̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶R̶u̶s̶s̶i̶a̶'̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶t̶e̶m̶e̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶m̶ ̶l̶i̶t̶t̶l̶e̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶i̶n̶c̶o̶h̶e̶r̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶r̶a̶m̶b̶l̶i̶n̶g̶s̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶p̶o̶i̶n̶t̶)̶.

Getting some replacement F-16s out of all this is also important: who in their right mind would want to reduce the air force just as three of your neighbors are at war?

brimble7• 4 years ago

The reluctance of Poland to do this directly is completely understandable, as it borders both Belarus and Russia, the latter having stated that it would consider this an act of war (which cannot be ignored, even if Russia's official statements seem little more than incoherent ramblings at this point).

The relevant statement I'd read had to do with letting Ukraine operate from air bases in other countries, not with supplying aircraft, which seemed to be a carefully crafted statement to avoid calling aircraft transfers an act of war, since it came out right around the (second) time this started to be talked about. Was there another?

3237• 4 years ago

Nobody yet sold heavy weapon systems to Ukraine, stuff like Patriot or Iron Dome anti aircraft systems. Or tanks/planes.

dantyti2• 4 years ago

You're right, I was under the wrong impression that it was about the transfer of planes.

xdennis4• 4 years ago

The relevant statement I'd read had to do with letting Ukraine operate from air bases in other countries

That's already moot since Romania is letting Ukrainian aircraft come here. 1 Su-27 previously and 9 helicopters today: https://universul.net/update-ukrainian-helicopters-land-in-r...

Isinlor• 4 years ago

As Pole - finally!

toomanyrichies2• 4 years ago

Hopefully this means the Ukranian air force can start attacking the 60-mile-long Russian convoy that's backed up on the road to Kyiv. As has been mentioned in other comment threads elsewhere on HN, it seems like that backup would be both a high-value target and (currently) a turkey shoot, until it resumes moving.

isbvhodnvemrwvn7• 4 years ago

They can't attack it due to heavy Russian air defense, not due to lack of fighters.

toomanyrichies2• 4 years ago

Good to know, thanks!

riskneutral2• 4 years ago

Surely some surface-to-surface missiles or long range artillery could reach the Russian column and break through the air defenses? It seems to me like both sides are holding back from unleashing the full fury of their power, for good reason.

Arnt2• 4 years ago

https://nitter.nl/UAWeapons/status/1500942046009438208

IANA… not L, but anyway. Maybe they're trying to attack a few bits and pieces so the convoy locks up lots of Russians and their equipment and can't be either resupplied or moved. (Tankers and other trucks would need to refueld the entire convoy.)

trzy4• 4 years ago

Bad move. This opens up Polish airbases to retaliation by Russian ballistic and cruise missiles. If push comes to shove, NATO Article 5 will not be invoked for Poland’s sake (Western European nations, the UK, and the US will not be willing to risk WWIII for country east of Germany and Poland should understand this by now). Poland will foolishly be left smarting while Germany and the UK press for rational dialog.

Maakuth• 4 years ago

Why do you consider it certain that NATO guarantees would not apply? Ukraine is not in the alliance.

pxtail• 4 years ago

This could be difficult to understand but in Poland due to the history there is sentiment that country was betrayed or abandoned, not helped by allies at the start of WWII by Britain, France.

Of course it's not certainty as you wrote but the thought at the back of the head about history repeating itself and possibility of being considered as just the buffer zone and potential battle ground for western europe countries is there for many people - and that's why in addition to having borders with countries at war Poland may be perceived as treading twice as carefully in this situation.

alangibson• 4 years ago

AFAIK any NATO nation can invoke article 5. However, the other nations have latitude in how they respond

aaomidi• 4 years ago

If Poland gets attacked over this, and NATO doesn't step in, then that's the end of NATO.

This is a really smart move to finally solidify the power of NATO - or get rid of it if it doesn't actually have that power.

gnulinux• 4 years ago

I find this thought of mine hard to explain to people because obviously no one including me wants WW3 and likely annihilation of our species. However, please note that in a hypothetical future where NATO doesn't even protect NATO soil (e.g. Poland) there will be no reason for Russia not to invade Baltic States, Poland, Romania etc. This effectively makes NATO non-existent and gives all the leverage and power to Russia. I understand this is a very sensitive issue, but from this perspective I believe NATO should immediately retaliate if Russia even dares to attack Poland.

trzy4• 4 years ago

Reasonable-sounding people in the West will — already are — argue that the combined economies of Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, etc. are not worth WWIII and that a comfortable and secure Russia will want to reintegrate into the global economy and can be reasoned with. From a purely rational perspective, they are not wrong. Even if it means the end of NATO, that’s preferable to Armageddon. The Germans have long belittled Poland, the Balts, etc. as irrational and irrelevant in their pursuit of a stable equilibrium with Russia. And the US? Even more removed from this conflict with an increasingly difficult set of its own domestic challenges and institutional decline.

tejohnso• 4 years ago

I think the Article 5 protection is exactly why Poland feels comfortable doing this. If they shared your concern they wouldn't have done it. And as other people have mentioned, it would be political disaster for Article 5 not to be invoked.

blagie3• 4 years ago

No, I don't think Poland feels comfortable in doing this. The West broke alliances with Poland over and over, as convenient, and just broke the Budapest Manifesto with Ukraine. See the Phoney War and the Warsaw Uprising for a good history.

Poland feels _more_ comfortable doing this than the alternative, though. If Russia stands unopposed in Ukraine, who do you think is next?

thesuperbigfrog2• 4 years ago

> Bad move. This opens up Polish airbases to retaliation by Russian ballistic and cruise missiles. If push comes to shove, NATO Article 5 will not be invoked for Poland’s sake (Western European nations, the UK, and the US will not be willing to risk WWIII for country east of Germany and Poland should understand this by now). Poland will foolishly be left smarting while Germany and the UK press for rational dialog.

There are US forces in Poland:

https://news.yahoo.com/us-fighter-jets-land-poland-173812228...

Poland is a member of NATO.

An attack on Poland would invoke NATO Article 5 without question.

larnik• 4 years ago

Poland's history causes folks to be cautious about such statements. If you are not familiar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal

trzy4• 4 years ago

No, NATO has plenty of wiggle room to decide not to retaliate in order to prevent further escalation. And furthermore, you might see a flat out refusal to honor treaty obligations to avoid “the unthinkable”.

EDIT: and remember 1939. They can simply drag their feet on actual military retaliation until the immediate threat subsides. A Russian invasion of Poland is highly unlikely. It’s not an objective of theirs. And without the threat of an invasion that would directly threaten larger economic powers, is a conflict with Russia even rational? NATO will simply absorb the hit.

Xylakant• 4 years ago

Poland is sending the aircraft to the largest American Airbase in Europe, located in Western Germany close to the French border. I’d assume that Ukrainian pilots will somehow transfer there to pick them up. The distances involved are not unmanageable - it’s around 1000 - 1500 km from there to Lviv, well inside Ukrainian territory. The ferry range of a MiG-29 is around 2000 km according to Wikipedia. Either Russia bombs Rammstein or they kill the planes when they land in Ukrainian space. Targeting Polish airfields makes no sense.

trzy4• 4 years ago

The planes themselves are irrelevant. Poland supplied them and retaliation would be punitive.

stjohnswarts5• 4 years ago

If Russia attacks Poland it's the same as directly attacking the United States (or any other NATO nation) and will be treated as such

riskneutral2• 4 years ago

I wonder how they solved the problem with the NATO MIGs having completely different systems than the Ukrainian air force? They must have either magically retrofitted the MIGs back with old Soviet tech, or they're transferring more than just jets to Ukraine.

hdjjhhvvhga2• 4 years ago

Yes, this is a problem if they're to be delivered immediately, but there are a couple of machines (around 10 I think) that haven't been equipped with NATO systems plus some that are used for spare parts but are in a good condition. SO these could be sent soon, and the remaining part depends on the decision of the USA - if they want it, the NATO systems could be removed (it will take some weeks at least).

CrzyLngPwd3• 4 years ago

How will these fighter jets will get into battle?

Won't Russia see any aircraft entering Ukrainian airspace as hostile and 1) Attack it 2) Attack wherever the aircraft came from?

Seems such a risky thing that really won't have much impact on the outcvome of the conflict :-(

cft• 4 years ago

Looks like there's a significant US lobby that want a hot war with Russia now

CrzyLngPwd3• 4 years ago

Thats horrifying if true :-(

xdennis4• 4 years ago

Doesn't it make sense to fight them before they eat up more countries and get stronger?

reed1234• 4 years ago

Russia doesn’t control Ukrainian airspace

CrzyLngPwd3• 4 years ago

I am sure you are right, but unless these aircraft are radar invisible or they put them in trucks won't Russia just see them and the country they come from as hostile?

ksherlock• 4 years ago

"A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for."

AniseAbyss• 4 years ago

Dutch pilots sortied against the Luftwaffe. It was a not particularly glorious massacre but a point was made.

Countries that don't have people willing to die for them are just lines on a map.

yuppie_scum• 4 years ago

I’m curious if UKR has enough pilots for these?

3237• 4 years ago

They don't need to take them all at once.

brimble7• 4 years ago

Maybe better if they don't, if they don't have the capacity to put them all to use immediately. A plane that isn't on the ground in a war zone... won't be destroyed on the ground.

DoingIsLearning• 4 years ago

Fighter jets are expensive beasts more so for smaller economies.

Small Air forces normally have multiple pilots on a training rota for each jet, the multiple can be several times over depending on how tight your air force budget is. So yes between active pilots and reservists they will most likely have pilots for all of them.

3237• 4 years ago

Pretty brilliant donating them to the USA airbase in Germany.

xdennis4• 4 years ago

I wish my country, Romania, would do the same, but we're always last to do the right thing. We were the last eastern European country to close our airspace to the Russians.

akmarinov4• 4 years ago

Turkey still hasn’t closed their airspace, so you’re not the last, Bromania.

Also you guys only have MiG 21s and I think they’re looking for 29s.

petre3• 4 years ago

They need MiG-29 or Su-27s. Romania only has MiG-21s but are doing maintenance on 14 Ukrainian helicopters.

Ancapistani4• 4 years ago

You're probably aware, but others might not be - while the MiG-21 is an _ancient_ design by military standards, it's more of a "chassis" than a "design". The MiG-21 was introduced in 1955, manufactured until 1985, and upgrades and modifications are still being done.

The first MiG-21 that came off the assembly line isn't really comparable to the variants being flown by Romania today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mikoyan-Gurevich_MiG-2...

rich_sasha2• 4 years ago

I’d imagine Poland’s motivation, certainly by the current government standards, are mostly to stick it to the Russians, maybe also swap some Migs for Fs.

As honourable as the current Polish support for Ukrainians is, I’m almost sure it would be different if they weren’t fighting Russia and instead, say, were affected by a famine.

zelon88• 4 years ago

It would be interesting to hear reports of them being used.

"Two American MIG-29's intercepted a Russian bomber and escorted it out of NATO airspace today."

Just has a strange ring to it.

ericmay• 4 years ago

Couple of notes:

1. This is kind of funny when you think about it. I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What's the point of the roundabout way of doing this? Maybe Poland is worried about intermediate range missiles targeting Polish airbases. But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn't interested in, unless they're in it for all the marbles.

2. This is further severing of ties between Russia and NATO-aligned countries. I expect other former Soviet Union states to follow and also acquire U.S. aircraft. They don't want to be reliant on Russian parts or technical know-how, and this further strengthens NATO around common aircraft and components. Expect American defense contractors (and some European ones as well) go get more business from countries such as Poland.

As I am thinking about this I think #2 is really what this is all about, but that Poland doesn't want to deal with transferring the aircraft to Ukraine and the Americans are glad to do it.

ldoughty• 4 years ago

My understanding is:

1. Ukraine forces know how to pilot MIG29s

2. Poland has MIG-29s, USA does not

3. Poland has time to retrain on newer equipment, Ukraine does not

4. Poland doesn't want to be defenseless, if it gives aircraft to Ukraine.

So Poland gives Ukraine exactly what they need right now... USA agrees to aid Poland in replacement aircraft.

This isn't about "USA didn't give Ukraine aircraft", Poland did! It's about getting Ukraine the aircraft they know how to use right now

ckozlowski• 4 years ago

To add to this and the comment above: Poland also flies the F-16. There'd been some commentary earlier in which Poland said they'd be willing to divest themselves of their MiGs if they can get F-16s to replace them in order to maintain their force level requirements.

My guess is that this transfer of the MiGs to the U.S. is to facilitate this exchange in a rapid manner that would take too long through regular procurement processes.

glfharris• 4 years ago

This is how I see it too. It'll be obvious to anyone where those aircraft have come from. Poland isn't going to deflect responsibility this way.

Poland can't afford to donate it's air power so readily, but the USA allows them to with this move. It will also shift their military to be more on spec with other NATO countries.

melling2• 4 years ago

Poland is part of NATO. Doubtful that they would be targeted.

justinhj• 4 years ago

Poland is side stepping the blatant risk of escalating to a war with Russia and/or WW3 by trying to move the Migs into Ukraine itself, but it still wants the F16s that the US is offering. This way it moves the problem to the US by having the planes go West to Germany instead and let Biden figure it out. I'm interested in how the US plans to get Migs into Ukraine in a way that isn't an act of war.

logifail3• 4 years ago

I'm interested in how the US plans to get Migs into Ukraine in a way that isn't an act of war.

This. Biden said on 24 Feb that the US will be 'involved' if [Putin] moves into NATO countries. Now we're to believe NATO wants to move Migs into Ukraine?

This isn't [yet] NATO vs Russia. Let's not make it that.

ISL3• 4 years ago

If Russia takes Ukraine, then Russian forces will directly adjoin the Polish border. It makes sense to attempt to reduce the pretext for any invasion of, or retribution on, Polish soil.

If the Americans give the Ukrainians jets and Russia has a problem with it, they can fight it out with the Americans. They're both further-removed and a much larger adversary. Furthermore, it says more-emphatically, "Poland didn't give them those planes, NATO did it together. Don't like it? Come get some."

brimble7• 4 years ago

1. This is kind of funny when you think about it. I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What's the point of the roundabout way of doing this? Maybe Poland is worried about intermediate range missiles targeting Polish airbases. But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn't interested in, unless they're in it for all the marbles.

I'd guess the US is gonna put some resources into refurbing and arming these planes, so it's simpler to just give them to the US up-front and send them to a US airbase.

petre3• 4 years ago

They're most probably already modified to use NATO armament.

hprotagonist• 4 years ago

and 3. All of NATO has to agree to subsequently hand off the MiGs to Ukraine, so this is a visible commitment (and a free F16 upgrade!), but the jets are just going to sit on the tarmac in Germany for now.

akmarinov4• 4 years ago

It doesn’t look like it’s a “free” upgrade, Poland will still have to pay something to get F-16s. Let’s see what they settle on.

abernard1• 4 years ago

3. The Polish do not want to be involved and are forcing the Americans / Germans to initiate and back up their testy rhetoric.

The US state department is saying they were not informed of Poland's decision [1].

Poland has already called out the US state department for "fake news" when the US said Poland was sending those MIGs to Ukraine [2].

[1] https://news.yahoo.com/u-says-wasnt-pre-consulted-202635492.... [2] https://twitter.com/PremierRP_en/status/1500345167211114497

rasz4• 4 years ago

Poland got F'ed by US multiple times in the past when it came to military contracts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_agreement (/1) This way conditions are all in the open and there is no wiggle room for Blinken to "yes we said we would provide replacement planes, but it was just a preliminary idea blabla" down the road. Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

/1 When buying 48 F-16 in 2002 Lockheed Martin declared almost $10B cross military gear imports and technology transfers, then it melted down to $6B with minimal militry gear imports and zero technology transfer, and finally ended up with US taking over mayor Polish military aviation companies - PZL Rzeszow (parts) went to UTC/Pratt&Whitney, PZL Mielec (heli/light transport planes) again to UTC/Sikorski then Lockheed Martin with Poland being charged extra for service parts coming out of those factories.

wahern2• 4 years ago

Poland is next on the Putin list after Ukraine, right there with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

I would guess Moldova, considering that it's not a NATO member and Russia already has a presence as peacekeepers protecting the breakaway province of Transnistria. And Moldova is closer to the Balkan countries that Russia is keen on.

dragonwriter3• 4 years ago

I mean is Russia going to all of a sudden be very confused and think that the Americans gave Ukraine MIG-29s? No. Poland did. What’s the point of the roundabout way of doing this?

The point is that Russia has specifically threatened any country whose territory hostile flights are deployed out of and, implicitly, particularly the specific bases; in case the direct flight of the planes to Ukraine is viewed as hostile, Poland wants them deployed out of a US base in Germany, not out of Poland.

But that seems like an escalation that Russia isn’t interested in, unless they’re in it for all the marbles.

Sure, but Russia being in it for all the marbles isn’t a possibility that can be ruled out, and neither is miscalculation if that is not the case, and neither (if you are Poland) can the possibility of a failure or insufficiency of NATO response to an attack on Poland be ignored.

The risk of Russia thinking they can get away with it, and the risk of an inadequate NATO response, and the risk to Poland in any circumstance are all mitigated by moving the focus to a US base in Germany.

david4222• 4 years ago

I recently read an article that stated that Russian anti-air can basically reach all over Ukraine. I wonder how effective these planes can be if they can be targeted from anywhere.

melling2• 4 years ago

That’s why “low-cost” drones would be useful. Ukraine needs more than a couple dozen MIGs. Dozens of UAV’s in the air at all times would be beneficial

topspin• 4 years ago

Russia is operating their Buk S-300/400 anti-air system in Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia the Ukrainians have been prioritizing the destruction of these systems and they've destroyed a significant number. Here is an example: https://youtu.be/TdTGT1dLSKA?t=73

nuccy• 4 years ago

Buk and S300/S400 are different things. Buk is self propelled all-in-one system, which has four rockets and integrated radar [1]. Buk's rockets range is about 50km. While S300/S400 have mich bigger rockets thus range, 300 and 400km respectively [2].

1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system

AYBABTME3• 4 years ago

I'm gonna guess that this is only true for the higher altitudes, simply due to the curvature of the earth and the inability of radars to target below a certain angle above the horizon.

munk-a2• 4 years ago

This feels an awfully lot like the US taking advantage of the current war to sell some more guns and, while I definitely don't want people to be left defenseless, I dislike how exploitative the whole thing feels.

stjohnswarts5• 4 years ago

Not really, it feels like the US trying to help Ukraine get some planes but Poland doesn't want to give up its stuff so the US is promising more planes to replace the old Migs.

munk-a2• 4 years ago

At least, given the statement, they're currently being redirected to Ramstein though - I wonder if that is for servicing before forwarding them to Ukraine.

foogazi• 4 years ago

Do you think Russian weapons magically appear ? Everyone’s buying and selling

CodeWriter23• 4 years ago

I think a lot of people here didn’t comprehend this last paragraph:

“ The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.”

ardit33• 4 years ago

So, Poland is giving the Jets to the US, and they are hosted in a German airfield, and probably be delivered to Ukraine from there.

If Russia wants to retribute, it will have to attack the US and Germany, which it ends up in ww3 territory.

Basically, any additional move, will end up being such escalatory, that it will have to think twice about it. Especially the lower level troops that will be ordered to carry any such attacks.

netsharc2• 4 years ago

If Putin attacks Germany it'll probably not involve lower level troops, but a inter-continental missile.

logifail3• 4 years ago

Basically, any additional move, will end up being such escalatory [..]

Deploying one single NATO aircraft from NATO territory into Ukraine is escalatory. It doesn't make any difference if it's a Mig or an F16, or whether it flew from an airbase in Germany or Poland.

akmarinov4• 4 years ago

Doesn’t matter which NATO country gives what to which other NATO country, it only matters where the jets are going to enter Ukraine from and we’re looking at Romania, Poland, Slovakia or Hungary.

awb2• 4 years ago

Might not be a done deal after all:

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1501334216851828737

BREAKING - Pentagon response to Poland's proposal on jets: "We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.”

- Phil Stewart (Military & Intelligence Correspondent@Reuters)

rasz4• 4 years ago

Standard US politics, lots of talking and hoping someone else will do your dirty work. Good thing Poland already learned how to deal with US as an ally after all previous broken promises.

Statement from Poland on providing airplanes to Ukraine

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