Is the U.S. Descending into Recession?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2022/03/06/is-the-us-descending-into-recession/

by paulpauper • 4 years ago

28 51 4 years ago

livinglist• 4 years ago

what should I do to prepare for recession?

Pay off debts (and don't get more). Too many people say 'take out loans, and buy investments with the savings!' They don't understand that debt is risk, and recessions are a big reason why.

Stock up on food, medication, and other supplies.

willcipriano2• 4 years ago

Given the government's tendency for bailouts recently that might be a losing strategy. Things like eviction holidays are happening more and more. I wouldn't get into debt needlessly, but if you need something in the next few years anyway, now might be a good time.

dominotw• 4 years ago

Stock up on food

huh? recession is that short?

paulpauper• 4 years ago

the best answer is often nothing. selling your stocks may mean selling at the bottom .recessions tend to be brief and the market will bottom before the economy does.

jmyeet• 4 years ago

This really depends on how much money you have.

It's a good general rule to keep a certain amount of money in cash or cash-like securities but there are limits to this. At a certain point, you lose out more on gains by keepin gmoney in cash than you'd lose by realizing losses to raise cash.

If you believe in the long term future of your investments, the thing to avoid is a cash flow crunch. That's what cash on hand is for. Leveraged investments may face a margin call. That's fine if you believe in the assets and you can cover it. If you can't then you may be forced to sell low.

Part of it too is psychological and being able to sleep at night. If you will suffer extraordinary stress by a 20% price correction then you're probably over-invested, just for your own wellbeing.

wonderwonder• 4 years ago

Really nothing out of the ordinary. Try to ensure you have a good amount of savings on hand and limited debt. Recessions while harsh are generally not long and are relatively common and likely the only way out of our current issue with inflation. Depressions are long and devastating.

tonyedgecombe2• 4 years ago

Spend less than you earn, keep a decent amount of cash on hand (6 to 12 months spending).

Don't job hop, often companies have a last in first out policy.

Don't take on too much debt.

Keep your skills up to date and make sure your management knows how much you contribute.

During a recession companies are often looking for ways to cut costs so you need to change the way you market yourself to them. If you are an AWS expert for example then you might promote your ability to get AWS costs under control.

shams93• 4 years ago

I just lost my job to someone from eastern europe so for engineers certainly we are seeing the return of outsourcing and insourcing with a vengeance. My work is always so temporary I can no longer pay rent or do any savings, sometimes I have had to go 3 weeks at a time without a meal. I have been a web developer since 1995 and with each recession I am pushed ever harder towards straight up starvation.

theandrewbailey2• 4 years ago

sometimes I have had to go 3 weeks at a time without a meal
I have been a web developer since 1995

Something doesn't add up. I don't mean to be rude, but I think the economy might be the least of your issues.

tablespoon• 4 years ago

It's got to be sarcasm. I'm pretty sure three weeks without food is about the time it takes to straight up die from starvation, and if it doesn't kill you I'd guess you'd need a long time to recover from the experience before you could survive going that long without food again.

vmception4• 4 years ago

Try Web3

It is simpler and more lucrative and will take almost anybody right now, organizations cant find devs and they are always rushed because the space is so much faster than the rest of tech

lucky for you, ideology isn't a luxury you can afford to have compared to comfortable web2 devs that talk themselves out of everything, go there and figure out what they want

dmingod6664• 4 years ago

Would love to see some RFP of web3. Do you have links to the protocol spec?

MathCodeLove• 4 years ago

I've had the impression that "Web3" is essentially a marketing buzzword without much real weight behind it.

From a technological standpoint, how is it significantly different from "Web2"? Seems to me like it's essentially the same tech we've used for decades with some usage of the metamask API thrown in.

NtGuy25• 4 years ago

Are you trying to run your own business? Me, my friends, and all of my coworkers have to live in the shadows because recruiters hunt us. Like, my buddy posted on Indeed and not has 5 unsolicited phone calls and 12 emails a day.

If you really can't find work in this market, you should really try fixing your resume since you most likely aren't selling your skills or have a red flag. Some of my older coworkers only put their last 12 years experience, or don't list dates on them to avoid age discrimination at the resume filter stage.

convolvatron• 4 years ago

I tried that. I already have an issue with people wanting to hire me on less senior roles than I'm used to functioning, with pretty poor results. hacking my resume in half only made that worse and only made me less attractive to the kinds of positions where they actually thought that background was a strength (the ones I really wanted)

honkycat2• 4 years ago

We always say "recession" but I feel like most people don't fear a recession, which is temporary.

The word I want to start flying around is "collapse" because that is what it feels like we are heading towards.

Our oligarch class sold us out at every opportunity and they may have finally drained the last drop of blood.

aeternum• 4 years ago

Who/what did they sell us out to?

kelseyfrog• 4 years ago

Themselves?[1]

1. Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens(2014) https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...

boc• 4 years ago

This take is everywhere online but I don't see a lot of evidence for why this historical moment is different from past moments.

Fear sells news and ads. You're the sucker buying it.

veganhouseDJ2• 4 years ago

Nickel last night? https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel

I have never seen anything like that.

riku_iki3• 4 years ago

This is pre-pandemic: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dfWIQljN2_XfKqyO2Kw7G-u4u_o=...

And my bet is that during pandemic, government money printing, housing and stocks rising, this graph becomes 2 times more dramatic.

honkycat2• 4 years ago

Honestly: sometimes I say something broad and incendiary because I want to get owned and get some good additional information from people who are engaged.

I honestly have no idea what the ripple effects of this war and recession will be.

bitxbitxbitcoin• 4 years ago

There's a subreddit for that.

mythrwy• 4 years ago

Just to throw out an idea (not sure I believe "sell out" nor this idea, but just to throw it out).

Perhaps it's less the "oligarch class selling out" but rather "the great debt game that created so much prosperity has reached it's final stages".

nerdponx• 4 years ago

There's also plenty of room between "transient recession" and "system collapse".

0xbadcafebee• 4 years ago

The fed has raised interest rates as a response to inflation. When has this not led to recession?

fuoqi• 4 years ago

The planned 25 bp rate raise is nothing compared to the official inflation numbers and it will be done instead of the previously expected 50 bp raise. And keep in mind that real inflation is probably higher and that it will accelerate even further with the new energy and commodity prices.

So it looks like we will see recession AND double digits inflation numbers.

lifeplusplus• 4 years ago

Stagflation

vpribish• 4 years ago

Forbes is garbage. It should be banned from HN

Is the U.S. Descending into Recession?

Related Stories