All His Life Has He Looked Away, to the Future...

http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/to_the_future

by danilocampos • 15 years ago

115 117 15 years ago

trebor2• 15 years ago

Strategies like "release early, release often" and "version 0.1" don't work for massive corporations that can afford to finish a product before actively hyping it.

I'd respect Microsoft more if they'd actually imitate that facet of Apple.

kkowalczyk2• 15 years ago

This is apples (iPad - a hardware device) to oranges (an operating system).

Apple is doing exactly the same thing as Microsoft when it comes to os. First beta version of iOS 5 was released 3 months ago at WWDC, Apple's equivalent of Build conference, and is not shipping yet. The same goes for Mac OS X - beta builds are available to developers long before the final retail build. Neither Microsoft nor Apple can just ship their OS without giving developers enough time to test their apps for compatibility and fix inevitable issues.

As to why Microsoft doesn't follow Apple's hardware release strategy: it's because Microsoft doesn't do hardware. They don't make PCs. They don't make tablets. They don't make phones.

The release strategy for hardware is up to the companies that do make the hardware: Dell, Sony, HP, HTC, Samsung etc.

trebor2• 15 years ago

That is true.

Yet I constantly think about the various companies that hype their Windows-powered tablets which never are released. Due to that happening a number of times with HP, and others, I've been expecting Microsoft to one-up the hardware companies and make their own tablet. Just get done with it. Or, stop the idiots from hyping incomplete products.

That's why I mixed issues like that together.

absconditus• 15 years ago

Again, what about it is better?

msg• 15 years ago

tl; dr: Is Windows 8 vaporware? Meanwhile iPad is surrendering all the way to the bank.

I lost a few brain cells on this one.

Steko6• 15 years ago

At least Gruber is rightfully giving props to Microsoft for the very original UI. Every time I see anything Metro based I'm struck at what a breath of fresh air it is in mobile.

TomOfTTB• 15 years ago

I'm not sure I agree with this. I mean, there are two aspects to consider here.

The Metro "Theme" which is attractive but I wouldn't call it mind blowing. It basically plays off a trend that had been developing since the web gained prominence which is to ditch the pseudo-3d interfaces for a flatter look. Again, I don't deny its attractive.

The Interface Elements - As far as the UI Metro doesn't change much. It basically boils down to Widgets instead of icons. I mean, Android already had desktop widgets. Again not saying what Microsoft is doing is bad (it isn't) but is it really "a breath of fresh air"?

The real innovation of Metro in Windows Phone 7 is the wall concept where people can scroll in every direction. But that doesn't seem to be present in Windows 8.

doyoulikeworms• 15 years ago

I think the reasoning behind the newer Windows phone OSes being a "breath of fresh air" is not so much that they're 100% original (what is?) or mind blowing.

It's refreshing because it is, simply put, different. Android and iOS much more closely resemble each other than either resembles any recent Windows phone OS.

That's my take, anyway.

barista8• 15 years ago

And that coming from an apple fanboy loke Gruber means a lot to the new Metro design language.

CyberMonk• 15 years ago

It's the "iPad Killer" syndrome all over again. How many times has the iPad's or iPhone's death (and preceding that, Apple's) been predicted? And how many times has it actually happened?

I feel like every journalist who expresses this sentiment is hoping beyond hope that this time, this article, is the one that turns out to be timely and correct. But it's been a stupid bet thus far.

panicslowly• 15 years ago

The Metro UI is great, but the hardware on the market isn't exactly stellar (compared to iOS/Android offerings). If I were Microsoft, I'd be worried about something similar happening in the tablet market.

How are they going to stand out in non-traditional PC markets?

Lewisham3• 15 years ago

As Nokia is essentially a Microsoft puppet at this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nokia enter the tablet market.

barista8• 15 years ago

You are right. When you buy a phone by the processor speed or the memory it has but if you look at the end product the phone is as impressive as any other out there. Particularly with the new mango update that is rumoured to release soon.

georgemcbay2• 15 years ago

Hopefully they are working with ASUS to build something like the Transformer, but running Windows 8 and with an x86 chip. Because that is absolutely 100% what I want.

I love my current Asus Transformer -- the convertible notebook/tablet form factor is the perfect system for doing the stuff tablets are good at while also being usable for doing actual writing and content-creation type tasks. The missing piece in the current Transformer is productivity software, like real IDEs. Windows 8 + x86 fixes that. I've been an Android fanboy for the past couple of years, but the promise of really melding mobile with desktop has me super jazzed for Windows 8 and I really hope Microsoft pulls it off.

X-Istence3• 15 years ago

Windows 8 has been ported to ARM, so it doesn't even need to be x86.

Kylekramer• 15 years ago

"I'm not passing judgment on which strategy is superior. But here is 6 more paragraphs about how Apple's way is superior"

I am fascinated how much the same people who rail on about how strange it is when people don't understand the "Apple way" don't understand that there are also other ways. Beyond drama, what real advantage is given by releasing a product as soon as it is announced? For Apple, that secrecy and drama is an advantage. It is what brings the fans back, it is what drums up media attention. But that isn't the Microsoft way. That isn't what sells Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't need to win over consumers to sell a piece of hardware, they need to convince OEMs and enterprise to jump on the latest greatest. And those people need a decent lead time. Being nice to devs and manufacturers and business is what makes Windows. Releasing a product as soon as it was announced would be odd and slightly disconcerting. I'll bet a decent amount that if it were to happen, the blog posts wouldn't be effusive praise, from Gruber or Thurott or whomever. And that is okay.

Different strokes.

bane• 15 years ago

You also forgot the preceding six paragraphs of snide comments and bloviated opinion beating.

mycroftiv• 15 years ago

>What strikes me about Thurrott’s tweet is that the two companies have attracted the writers they deserve. Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real.

I can't believe that Gruber can write such self-satisfied tripe without more self-awareness. His quote is more true than he realizes - the incredible smugness of both Gruber and Apple is very striking. Rabid fanboyishness combined with pretension to some kind of superior aesthetic taste in how product announcements are handled shows that DF is reaching the point of self-parody.

josephcooney• 15 years ago

Yes. I guess I missed the part where all of the attendees at build received a real working windows 8 tablet, running the real windows 8 preview/alpha/beta/whatever-we're-calling-it-these-days bits. Somehow that isn't _real_ in the way apple would do real, and thus not REALLY real.

Game_Ender• 15 years ago

According to sites like Arstechnica who have got to use the build for a while it has plenty of lock ups and hard crashes. Many features you saw demoed in the keynote are also not ready for release so they are not in the preview build either.

The point is, it's far being shippable, and if you can't ship it, it's not "real".

sedev5• 15 years ago

Gruber gives the example of how the iPads that were available to the press at the Apple event were indistinguishable from the iPads later sold at retail. Microsoft says up front, very clearly, that the hardware they're giving away is a "reference implemenation," which means that it's unlikely to ever show up at retail in its current form, and that the software is a "developer preview," likewise.

So - no, that's not the way Apple would do it, and while it's certainly a Good Thing for developers, it's not unreasonable to argue that compared to the pre-release iPads, the developer-preview Win8 tablets and software are not 'real.' Many, many things about both the hardware and the software can be expected to change. They're still being formed, and it'd be very premature to make predictions about the final user-facing experience at this point.

Lewisham3• 15 years ago

One could reasonably argue that Lion is a half-finished state itself. It's neither here nor there; an incoherent mess of UI ideas and functions.

I'm not especially happy I upgraded. I find myself working against Lion's new features more often than with.

Steko6• 15 years ago

One could reasonably point out that this is a minority view and most reviews of Lion are pretty positive.

Steko6• 15 years ago

I guess smugness is in the eye of the beholder.

It's not smug when Thurott says "Hello, Windows 8? This is iPad. You win."?

It's not smug when Ballmer dismisses every Apple product when it's released only to watch that product become a smash hit?

Don't get me wrong Gruber's smug as all hell in this piece but Apple itself? I'm not so sure that shoe fits although a couple examples come to mind (like Steve's projection of Safari browser share).

dreww• 15 years ago

they're both smug - what's confusing to me is why anyone who is not a major shareholder of these enormous corporations has feelings about these relatively boring narratives.

recoiledsnake4• 15 years ago

>It's not smug when Thurott says "Hello, Windows 8? This is iPad. You win."?

The difference is that only Gruber's posts get highly upvoted on HN. Thurrott? No one cares.

frou_dh3• 15 years ago

I took a look at Thurrott's site and was greeted with a big popover ad splatted across the page, so captain slate grey wins at least one point in the taste stakes.

barista8• 15 years ago

Only an apple fanboy can side with an opinion based on the color scheme and visual appearance of the site. :)

technoslut2• 15 years ago

I don't know what smugness you see in Apple regarding this because they haven't said anything about it.

Regarding both Thurrott and Gruber, they both acted like fanboys today. There's nothing wrong with preferring a platform but it was more than a little thick. Thurrott was going back and forth with Apple fans in his tweets and Gruber made a post earlier calling the Samsung tablet an iPad 3 prototype while ragging on the fact it had a fan. Other Apple bloggers picked up on it and ran with it the whole day as a talking point.

I prefer to wait and see what happens. There isn't any need for hasty judgements either way. No one knows what the final product will be like when it's actually released. The touch-centric part was amazing but there are questions of price (at least with Intel models with SSD's), weight, battery life and how well it performs under ARM processors. There are also questions of whether consumers will be interested in it.

revscat• 15 years ago

Smugness is confidence displayed by someone we don't like. Every word you wrote could be equally applied were you to hold up a mirror.

morisy• 15 years ago

That exact passage stood out to me for the precise opposite reason: For every Gruber-esque writer on Apple's side, there are hundreds of MacRumors, InfiniteLoops, etc., that predict, usually badly, future Apple visages. Good, cogent writing is the exception, not the rule, no matter the subject.

tambourine_man• 15 years ago

A great title for a mediocre article. Had he simply answered Paul's tweet with Yoda's quote, little could be said against it. Instead, he elaborated poorly on obviousness.

0x12• 15 years ago

This article misses out on one small detail: it is a lot easier to update software than it is to update hardware after you ship it.

It was a silly tweet and I think that it may be a little bit too soon to call the race run. For now iPad is solidly in the lead, let's see how it plays out.

Who releases what in which way is probably not a factor in the long run.

pavlov• 15 years ago

"I enjoy writing about what’s real."

This is fairly ironic, when just a few paragraphs earlier he was discussing the "as-yet-unannounced iPad 3".

Most Apple writers (Gruber included) spend a great deal of time writing about imaginary products. They are in the business of compiling rumors, wish lists, Taiwanese newspaper speculations and divinatory readings of Cupertino teacup leftovers into a coherent whole that could be an Apple product in development. There's nothing "real" about that process, though.

Windows 8 has a credible story, a visual identity, a unified API, and it's available for download today. It's clearly a real product for developers, who were the target audience of the Build conference.

varunsrin6• 15 years ago

> "I simply wish to direct your attention at how utterly different the two companies are."

>"Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real"

What Gruber claims to understand, but actually doesn't, is that the Microsoft ecosystem is a very different beast than the Apple ecosystem. Microsoft, unlike Apple, does not control the entire vertical stack. They don't really have direct control over hardware or retail distribution (some notable exceptions - Xbox, Microsoft stores etc., but you know what I mean - it's nothing like Apple's top-down approach)

There are OEM's, partners, developers that need to get their hands on this technology - to test it, to ensure compatibility with existing platforms. There are IT admins that need to figure out how to start deploying this to their orgs.

Windows can't just launch a new OS 'when its done'. Secrecy is a very Apple approach, and it doesn't work for other companies that are reliant on many 3rd parties to complete their ecosystem. Yes, Apple is reliant on devs to write apps, but its not the same as needing hardware partners ot manufacture devices. Not saying that either approach is better, you just need to acknowledge in some cases, secrecy will work against you. Just look at the fallout over the whole Silverlight / HTML5 issue after All Things D

There's a reason that Windows initially won the application development battle with Mac OS, its because the company's commitment to backward compat, partners & developers is solid. Windows is built on a legacy of backward compatibility - Joel Spolsky has a fascinating article about this that explains things more eloquently than I can - http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html

>"Show me something real, I say. Look at Amazon. Everyone knows they’re building a tablet. What have they said, though? Nothing. What have they shown? Nothing. When will they say something? When it’s done. What will they show? Something real."

Amazon can afford to launch a new Kindle tablet in secrecy, because the 3rd party ecosystem is not a main part of the kindle. How many authors need to upgrade their books to support the new Kindle? Zero. Amazon will make sure of that. Content creators & publishers need to do nothing to support the new kindle. Amazon can afford to be secret, and is better off being secretive until it launches. It works for them in this case.

[Disclaimer: MSFT employee]

ethank5• 15 years ago

Not to defend Gruber here (since for some reason he is unpopular on HN), but I think that he does understand what you claim he doesn't.

The point of his polemic is not that Microsoft is fundamentally different than Apple in approach and execution. Anyone can see that plain as day. It's not obfuscated in the least.

The question is: which approach is right? Removing for a minute the preconceptions of "that's just how they are," which produces better products?

I don't think its cut and dry really. Apple currently has some MS type approaches with iOS because of their third party dependencies on software, and Microsoft has Apple approaches (i.e., XBox) because of their lack of such.

varunsrin6• 15 years ago

> "The question is: which approach is right?"

The problem is asking that question. It is irrelevant when they products are fundamentally different. Its like comparing, well, apples & oranges. You cannot compare the methodology of a hardware launch (iPad) to a software launch (Windows 8).

You do not launch major pieces software without a beta / dev preview release. No one does. Even Apple doesn't do it - Lion, iCloud & iOS5 were released in 'unfinished states', which Gruber claims to abhor. So instead of comparing above mentioned software launches (in an unfinished state) to Windows 8 (also in an unfinished state), Gruber chooses hardware.

Compare the Xbox & iPad release schedules, and iOS5/Lion & Windows 8 schedules. I doubt you'll find that the hardware ships with a public beta. And I doubt that you'll find that software ships without a beta.Gruber is twisting examples to suit his arguments, and this is fundamentally flawed logic.

recoiledsnake4• 15 years ago

>Not to defend Gruber here (since for some reason he is unpopular on HN)

Is that why many of Gruber's posts are consistently upvoted on HN?

Out of all that was displayed during the keynote, he got only one thing to dwell on.

The demo tablet given out has a fan and gets hot? That is like criticizing Windows because Dell makes a pink laptop. There's going to be immense choice.

And this going to put pressure on Intel and other OEMs to reduce heat and power consumption to get closer to ARM.

What if you want a more powerful iPad? You're SOL.

eykanal3• 15 years ago

Gruber is popular on HN because he consistently writes high quality, thought-provoking tech-related articles.

Gruber is unpopular because many of his pieces contain enough smug to choke a small giraffe.

chaostheory• 15 years ago

> Microsoft, unlike Apple, does not control the entire vertical stack. They don't really have direct control over hardware or retail distribution (some notable exceptions - Xbox, Microsoft stores etc., but you know what I mean - it's nothing like Apple's top-down approach)

I think most people in our field, including Gruber, are well aware that MS doesn't have full control of the stack. It's good to note, but at the end of the day if you're just judging product A from product B; no one, especially the customer, gives a crap about excuses no matter how good they are. Unless you're my family or friend, you either deliver or you don't. I don't care if you have to let the dog eat your homework or not.

varunsrin6• 15 years ago

The argument is not about which product is better, its about which release methodology results in a better product, which I claim is a pointless argument when you are shipping different products.

Yes, customers will judge them equally when the product ships - but the developer release isn't for customers. Its for developers and partners

sixothree• 15 years ago

Microsoft cannot afford secrecy because they are so far behind. When this thing ships Apple with be halfway through their third generation.

barista8• 15 years ago

I think Microsoft does not have secrecy because they have lots of OEM partners who want to develop for the platform before its released.

Steko6• 15 years ago

Apple makes money chiefly by selling devices to the public. Joe needs a phone, walks into an Apple store plays with an iPhone and buys one. Suprise works here because of the burst of publicity and the ease of purchase. This approach is based on limited supply and tries to maximize dollars per unit.

Microsoft's Windows platform makes money chiefly by selling OS licenses to hardware companies like Dell. Every month these companies write 8+ digit checks to Microsoft. The multi-year roadmaps involved make surprise a disadvantage. This approach seeks to maximize $100 licenses.

Sony's Playstation platform makes money chiefly by taking a cut from other developers. Sony convinces someone like EA to develop for their system and makes $5 every time one of us buys an EA game for $50. The development lead time involved means the announcement has to be at least a year in advance.

Amazon's Kindle platform also makes money chiefly by taxing the ecosystem (in this case e-books). However the lead time to produce an e-book is minimal and so surprise again works.

Nintendo puts another twist it -- they make money chiefly by selling blockbuster first party titles on their own platform.

Google makes money chiefly by selling ads. A company or ad agency writes Google a check with an expected level of visibility. This approach seeks to maximize units and industry growth (even competitors). Facebook I guess we can expeect the same approach, trying to get aunt millie with the 10 year old cel phone onto a smartphone.

Maybe I should say something about phone hardware vendors like HTC who sell phones to carriers complete with rebranding, etc.

DougBTX• 15 years ago

> and tries to maximize dollars per unit.

I've never really understood this line as applied to Apple, since I don't recall them dropping prices after the initial release. If they did I'd expect a "wait two months for the prices to drop" meme, but I've never heard that recommendation.

PakG1• 15 years ago

I'd be curious on a statistical breakdown comparing average book authorship time to volume of sales and gross revenue of sales. Because quality books always take a long time to write. Already written books are easy to put up for sale, yes, but I'm curious about the data for new productions.

rhygar• 15 years ago

The majority of software on Windows boxes is pirated or free. Why would a developer write an app for Windows 8 if it's just going to be pirated endlessly?

http://www.windows8update.com/2011/04/28/windows-piracy-chin...

kkowalczyk2• 15 years ago

Because, despite piracy, Windows ecosystem makes boatloads of money for many, many people.

ubernostrum• 15 years ago

Of course, the other other side of this is that Microsoft has, over the past decade or so, become a company that specializes in three things:

1. Shipping Windows, Office and XBox.

2. Showing demos of revolutionary "coming next year" technologies that never ever ship.

3. Occasionally shipping something that's not Windows, Office or XBox, and then killing it as quickly as possible.

The last two have especially dogged Microsoft's mobile efforts; every year we hear that "next year's Windows for (this year's hot mobile category) will revolutionize everything", every year we hear the cries of "at last! History will repeat and MS will crush Apple again!", and every year we realize they either never shipped last year's great mobile hope, or shipped one version of it and then announced it would be replaced by next year's great mobile hope.

So at this point, why should anyone in this industry be taking Microsoft seriously?

[Disclaimer: not MSFT employee]

eykanal3• 15 years ago

This is an excellent point. For some reason, this pre-release has everyone all excited. There hasn't been this much buzz in the tech circles over a Microsoft product in probably over a decade. Uber's comment below makes me wonder what everyone else is seeing that I'm missing.

shriphani3• 15 years ago

On the other side of your other side : this is the only company that shipped a device as revolutionary as the Kinect - a device that is pretty badass.

At this point MS has a 580bn ecosystem. I know that America only deals in trillions now but still 580bn is nothing to scoff at.

[Disclaimer : former intern]

barista8• 15 years ago

Funny how he turned the conversation to whose approach is better. Both Apple and Microsoft have followed their respective approaches for years and I doubt they are going to change it.

What is important to me is to realize how quickly microsoft has reacted and how convincing the reply sounds. Compare what they showed today to the vaporware of Vista. Microsoft has come a long way since then and its impressive turnaround for a company that size and that has such legacy baggage.

latch• 15 years ago

This is a common problem with Microsoft. They announce products well before they are available for purchase and end up disappointing everybody (including themselves).

One of the Zunes (maybe ZuneHD? maybe the 1st one), was announced at a specific price and they made it clear this was X dollars cheaper than an iPod. Problem is, it wasn't shipping for another year..guess what Apple did?

They are in a hard position though (of their own doing)....they are far behind [the tablet market], so they need to do something. Unfortunately, all they can do is show something that'll be available later on.

ahi• 15 years ago

Design is about constraints. Throw battery life, processor power, and price out the window and it's easy to produce something incredible.

shriphani3• 15 years ago

Ok this is radically entertaining. This is 2 people commenting on how someone who created something decides to show it to the world and they have made a penis-length measurement contest of it. And these 2 people made a net contribution of 0 to the creations themselves.

There should be an "Analyst" flag on posts like this.

recoiledsnake4• 15 years ago

>"I enjoy writing about what’s real."

Then why was he writing about iOS 5 from a long time?

And I guess the below is a figment of my imagination.

http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89...

dhbanes• 15 years ago

Is this a link to just the tablet or does it come with extra batteries & a charger as well?

ihaveaquestion• 15 years ago

Microsoft = All talk and no cock!

sedev5• 15 years ago

A bit of historical perspective may prove helpful: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-claim-c...

Paul Thurott's track record when it comes to making predictions about the iPad is terrible. There's simply no reason to take him seriously, and perhaps we should really be criticizing Gruber for the tech blogging equivalent of being a prominent biologist stooping to debating creationists.

nl• 15 years ago

The most important thing about Windows 8 is that it is Steven Sinofsky's audition for the Microsoft CEO role.

If Windows 8 is a success he has a great chance to replace Ballmer. If (and when) that happens is when people should start paying attention to what Microsoft does again.

Sinofsky is no Steve Jobs, but he is one of the few people who are proving able to consistently produce good products at Microsoft. If he ran the company they'd be a force in the industry again.

cageface• 15 years ago

It's pretty incredible in hindsight what a poor steward Ballmer has been for MS. I can't complain because MS seems to have finally loosened its death grip on the industry but if I were a shareholder I'd be pretty upset.

That said, I think a resurgent, non-monopolistic MS would be good for the industry as a whole.

saturdaysaint• 15 years ago

I like Gruber, but this isn't his best piece. He's trying too hard to argue something that's obvious - Windows 8 is coming out in a year or more, so placing it in the competitive landscape probably requires a fairly harsh assessment. If you make a few modest projections about where the iPad and Android will be in a year (both in market/mindshare and in terms of product advancement), Windows 8 will probably be at a hard disadvantage in the consumer space.

There's a lot to discuss/praise/criticize about Windows 8 so it's a shame he got into the discussion by rising to flamebait and flailing at something resembling a criticism of MS's strategy.

aufreak3• 15 years ago

Tired of this kind of speculation. Let the doers do.

Microsoft seems to be, for once, trying to make something nice and different from the rest of me-too pads out there. Even if it were to launch two years from now, what if they have something so differentiated from the iPad at that point that it might attract its own following? Is iPad the end of all computing innovation?

I'd say Go Microsoft! Give Apple a run for its money if you can!

epo• 15 years ago

Thurott has been called a Microsoft fanboy, and Gruber has been called an Apple fanboy. If it matters, read and agree with whichever one reinforces your own personal prejudices.

For me the Thurott comments are just Microsoft vapourware being cheered on by an MS groupie. I'll believe in the Windows 8 tablet when I see it, and if I ever see it I'll compare it to whatever is available from other suppliers at the time.

For now the iPad has no credible competitor. When, if, a Windows 8 tablet comes along I will be astonished if that claim can be made about that product.

TorgoGuy• 15 years ago

Gruber is no idiot. However, he missed the mark and has his Apple-blinders on here. Apple pre-announces nearly all of its operating systems and give developers access to betas. (Didn't I read Gruber talking about pre-release versions of OSX Lion? How about his recent posts about iOS 5?) The vendors have to provide information ahead of releases so that developers can write applications for them.

Thurrott isn't an idiot either. He has long been frustrated by Microsoft's boneheaded mistakes and tweeting his excitement over all the things Microsoft seems to be finally getting right with Windows 8 in a humorous way doesn't equal some kind of prediction. However, he conflated a software-only platform (Windows 8) with an integrated hardware/software platform (iPad/iOS). No doubt decent tablet hardware will arrive for Windows 8, but we'll see how well they'll work together.

All His Life Has He Looked Away, to the Future...

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