Why does the stock market look like this while the world is falling apart?

exchanges know everything about the short term moves its users can and cannot make, as well as a significant partial signal of their total market position based on where all their orders are, the amount of actual fiat money parked in their account, where their stop losses and other triggers are set and what exposures to different coins they have on the platform

thebean11• 5 years ago

This is super misleading, from the linked website:

Nicehash does not have enough hashing power for most larger coins, so we also calculated what percentage of the needed hashing power is available from Nicehash.

For Bitcoin, that percentage is zero which renders the dollar cost 100% meaningless.

For Ethereum, it's 7% so it's also nowhere near vulnerable from the attack vector this website is calculating a price for.

Even forgetting about that glaring issue, purchasing hashing power on NH would..drive the price of hashing power up. You would not be able to buy all the hashing power at the price that it currently trades, just like you wouldn't be able to buy all BTC or GOOG shares at the price they currently trade. This should be obvious.

Apofis• 5 years ago

Why does everyone think Wallstreet are amateurs? This is hilarious.

perryizgr8• 5 years ago

Is it fair to normalize stock market growth against M2 supply? If companies and individuals have created wealth and value, that would result naturally in more M2. To discount growth by saying that M2 has grown is not right IMO. M2 has grown because we have created value.

convolvatron3• 5 years ago

i remain really confused about this notion of 'creating value'. i mean I know the little microeconomic stories...but in the real world how do measure 'value' without recursively describing it in terms of dollars?

nmhancoc2• 5 years ago

Productivity? Literally the amount of stuff produced per unit population (or normalized for working time).

You do need a common measurement to be able to aggregate items together (a tractor and a sandwich, for example), and we generally use dollars for that, but I wouldn’t call that recursive.

You could also measure it in labor time, percentage of life people need to spend working, sea shells, or a variety of other measures depending on your aim.

ItsMonkk• 5 years ago

companies and individuals have created wealth and value, that would result naturally in more M2.

Correct.

M2 has grown because we have created value.

Incorrect. When the M2 grows, but the M2V(Velocity) falls, you created no value.

"I own #Bitcoin because it's the one thing they can't manipulate or control."

Also incorrect. Unfortunately, TINA.

nopenopenopeno• 5 years ago

Notice he doesn’t “account for dollar debasement” in the rest of the economy but only for the stock market. This is just nonsense.

blunte• 5 years ago

I was following and accepting the summaries until the Bitcoin pitch.

tluyben2• 5 years ago

Not very good, this article? Will I ever get a downvote button for articles or does HN not have that at all?

PawBer• 5 years ago

Bad articles just get forgotten at the bottom after few hours.

itronitron• 5 years ago

the flag button can be very effective

anonygler• 5 years ago

"I own #Bitcoin because it's the one thing they can't manipulate or control."

And lo, the plot was lost.

AccountToUse• 5 years ago

Funding secured.

cornhole• 5 years ago

his argument went out the window when he started shilling bitcoin

g42gregory• 5 years ago

It’s because people are investing the Government’s cash into the assets, such as stocks, instead of buying the products as they were “supposed” to do. Instead of buying a new iPhone, they buy Apple stock directly. This will cause stocks to do well, while underlying companies are not reporting good profits.

brnt• 5 years ago

Because people are shortsighted in both directions of time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

hnburnsy• 5 years ago

I'm not saying if makes a difference to his point, but when you pick 2009 at the starting, which was the bottom of the Great Recession, your graph has a much different slope than a 10, 15, or 20 year chart. Also his first chart is QQQ, not really a proxy for the entire US economy.

kgin• 5 years ago

Bitcoin fans need to believe the world is falling apart in order to have something to save.

Why does the stock market look like this while the world is falling apart?

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