nmhancoc

Merry Christmas HN!

Not an expert but I’m pretty sure no exceptions means you can’t use significant parts of std algorithm or the std containers.

And if you’re using pooling I think RAII gets significantly trickier to do.

Are self driving cars stagnant? Waymo seems to continue to chug along.

That implies an added tax burden of $500/month per unit. It's only $500/month per lot if the lot is only expected to have one unit.

In the starting scenario the housing supply are single family homes, so there's one unit per lot to begin with. That it happens to be $500/unit is a coincidence of math rather than a fixed statement. Governments don't levy taxes (particularly an LVT) on a per unit basis, it's only ever on a per lot basis.

Consider what happens if you only compare LVT to itself, i.e. to see what happens if you raise the amount of LVT by $500/lot.

The point of an LVT isn't to raise it by itself, it's to trail changes in land value.

Even if you were to arbitrarily raise it by $500/lot, the price is still more affordable for the fourplex renters than the house renters. So you should still expect less negative profit from the fourplex than the single family home. That the profit is negative will disincentivize future development, but it would also includes maintenance on the single family homes. And it'd be least bad for the fourplexes, because it's more spread out.

And wait a minute here, under the existing property tax system the government was getting $500/mo/unit in property tax.

They were getting $500/lot, that happened to coincide with per unit but is non essential. And can't be, an LVT can only ever be charged at lot level. It's a _land_ value tax, not a unit value tax.

If the typical plot is going to have a fourplex on it and the tax is expected to raise the same amount of revenue as the old property tax then it needs to be $2000/lot and thereby likewise increase the required rents by $500/mo/unit.

Huh? The government is overseeing a certain number of lots. Total revenue given a certain tax per lot is independent of the number of units on the lot. Also the costs, for local government, are largely per lot, in the sense that the maintenance on infrastructure dominated by lot level servicing rather than incremental uses of it. The exception to this would be schools. There's no reason to think that the tax needs to increase to be equal per uni.

Where the incentive changes is that now you'll want to build not just fourplexes but highrises to try to dilute the LVT over more units.

This implies that the tax is not set per unit, which contradicts your previous paragraph. I happen to think this is correct, incidentally.

So as soon as prevailing rents can't justify any more highrises, you get no more construction at all. Even if there are still a bunch of abandoned lots.

Construction is generally less discrete than you're suggesting. There's generally various buildings of various degrees of age (and various levels of depreciation) in a city at a given time. Also, most cities have a spread of land values, with land being most highly valued (and thus incentivized to be most dense) in the core and less so as you spread out.

And LVT would, rather than the discrete steps you suggest, probably look like: as it increases there's an incentive to sprawl, and as long as that population is still bringing traffic and receipts into the urban core the urban core will be incentivized to redevelop to higher density. That will bring people in from the previous sprawl, until there's additional demand at which point the sprawl either increases in density or moves further out, etc.

This actually gets at one of the main criticisms land value tax (LVT) proponents have of traditional property taxes, which tax both land and buildings.

Let’s unpack your example with some rough numbers to see where the logic leads.

You assume rents are currently $1,000/month and that a new tax causes them to rise to $1,500/month to maintain the same return. That implies an added tax burden of $500/month per lot. If the lot is 10,000 sq-ft (common for single-family homes where I live), that’s about $0.05/sq-ft/month, or $0.60/sq-ft/year in land tax.

Now let’s look at whether this disincentivizes development.

Say a developer replaces that single-family home with a fourplex:

* Each unit is ~1,000 sq-ft - Construction cost is ~$270/sq-ft, so total is ~$1.08M * Required rent for a 5% return = $1,125/month per unit - The land tax ($500/month) is now split over 4 units = $125/month per unit * Total required rent = $1,250/month per unit, or $1.25/sq-ft/month

Compare that to the single-family home:

Rent = $1,500/month, also $1.25/sq-ft/month

So the developer earns the same return per square foot, and houses more people on the same land. Renters gain a cheaper overall option at the same cost per square foot. New development isn't disincentivized — it's neutral or even encouraged under a pure LVT.

Where your argument usually does apply is with regular property taxes, because those are assessed on both the land and the structure:

Single-family home is taxed on $240K (structure) + land Fourplex is taxed on $1.08M (structure) + land Per unit, that’s $270K in taxable improvements vs. $240K Unless the land is very expensive, higher-density development pays more tax per unit, even though it uses the land more efficiently. And that penalty grows with scale (e.g. high-rises).

That's the core issue LVT proponents focus on: property taxes tend to penalize building, while land value tax does not. In fact, LVT often makes better use of land more attractive by decoupling the tax burden from how much you invest in construction.

This was a long reply and I’d like to honor it by addressing what you bring up, but there’s a lot so forgive me for jumping around.

Let’s start by noting that we’ve now shifted the argument from “100% of this tax will be charged to renters” to, “this will get passed through to renters who were previously being undercharged.”

It’s hard to directly argue with your anecdote because I don’t know where you are or what your rental market is like, so I’ll address the argument more broadly.

Let’s examine how common that arrangement is. To the best of my search small time landlords of the variety you mention own something on the order of 35 and 40% of rental units. The rest, primarily multifamily (apartments) are owned by corporate landlords.

The corporate landlords were sued by the last admin for price fixing using realpage. I don’t know if or how that case was resolved but I think it’s safe to conclude they’re probably not undercharging.

For the small time landlords, probably some aren’t undercharging and some are. After all, how hard is checking neighborhood rents on Zillow once a year? Even if none are, we’re still admitting at least 60% of renters aren’t getting the kind of deals you mention. So this is a minority case, and probably shouldn’t be the basis of policy.

Addressing this point: > Under an LVT my landlord would be required to run the property in the most taxation efficient manner, which is counter to my interests as a renter.

Even granting that that’s true, I’d argue it’s not persuasive. The government needs some amount of money to function. LVT is one source of that money, income taxes are another, sales taxes are another, wealth taxes are another, etc.

So your argument fundamentally resolves down to “other members of society should make up the deficit in taxes I would otherwise pay so that I (and others in my situation) can enjoy a yard or more space than I otherwise would.”

And the basic question here is, why? In what way does it benefit literally anyone else in society that you have a bigger yard? This is a blunt and perhaps impolite way to put it, but it’s true.

Going back to those alternatives, we can counterfactually raise income taxes on some waiter bussing tables or a SWE slinging code at Facebook, on an author with a copyright, or on someone who owns a business. But, if we do, we should expect less of all of those services. That serves as a reason to avoid such a tax.

In contrast, with the yard, I can’t think of a single such service provided or reason to avoid the tax. And that’s the crux of the Georgist argument more than railroads or slumlords. It’s the empty lot, or the lawn as we now call it.

I don’t think so, actually. Real estate is a pretty small sector of the economy (maybe 13 or 14% of GDP according to Google. That’s about as much as manufacturing, but not politically unassailable.

The real reason these sorts of reforms will never kick in is that roughly 2/3 of Americans are in owner occupied housing, it’s the largest asset on most of their balance sheets, and an LVT will in many cases effectively zero that out.

So it’s the homeowners (particularly the older cohorts) which will vote against this policy to the detriment of the younger cohort.

Taxing land will be passed through 100% to the renter

Replies like this genuinely confuse me. How do you think rent prices are set now? I’ll tell you, they’re generally set to maintain a given occupancy rate, which is to say, they’re set as high as the market allows. The market being a group of renters which make an income, of which landlords generally take a third or more.

If we implemented a LVT tomorrow, the renters don’t get additional capacity to pay rent as mana from heaven. The rents wouldn’t budge.

Any claim otherwise requires it be the case that there’s capacity to raise rents that landlords aren’t currently utilizing, i.e. that landlords are undercharging renters en masse. I have never seen evidence in support of such a claim.

Working on Cardamom, a compiler that transforms trained ML models into C libraries for easy, simple embedding in applications.

I have an example use case of embedding a snake AI player (trained in Python) in a JavaScript version of snake for distribution on the web.

https://www.cardamom.ai/snake.html

I have a similar demo building for iOS, I’ve deployed ML as a lambda layer before, and I’d like to continue embedding in fun places.

Cloudflare open sourced workerd, there's also Apache Airflow which covers some similar use cases albeit not strictly with functions.

WASM also tries to solve this, essentially borrowing the isolation features from browsers for cheap startup latency. Cloudflare workers is the classic example.

Regarding number of services, I’m optimistic this will get better shortly if you follow the FaaS paradigm.

In particular if you deploy in Cloudflare’s style you can deploy workerd as a single binary and load it up with your functions.

It’s a little immature right now and persistent storage can be a problem though.

Taking a slightly different angle than most of the comments here, what if there really is a worker shortage?

Trucking seems, like trades or certain manufacturing jobs, to be in the category of labor historically done by men to provide for a family and not, e.g. for the sake of itself like medicine.

Married men, according to the BLS, work about 10.6% more weekly than unmarried men [1].

And as men without college educations are increasingly less likely to get married [2], you’d expect to see less total hours worked, and thus effectively less workers, in exactly these fields.

In other words, there may be a real shortage in labor in the sense that society has come to rely upon a group of people’s willingness to perform this labor at a given level of compensation, but the reason why that group of people was willing to do so has been invalidated. Thus there’s a shortage relative to an expectation which will have to get resolved one way or another.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat22.htm

[2] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/09/14/as-u-s-ma...

You know how I know that WFH side isn’t saying using the whole truth? They never look bad.

I think this is a fair criticism but has an understandable explanation. What counts as abuse is not clear cut.

1. With respect to people working half time, you’re going to get push back that people do that in the office as well (inflate estimates and slack or whatever), they just then occupy themselves chatting with coworkers or doing water cooler stuff. From an IC point of view, they’re still slacking. From a corporate point of view maybe these conversations have some added value. Is the absence of them a loss or the lack of willingness to do them from home an abuse?

2. Much more controversially: overemployment. Take the same employee as above but now that they’re working from home instead of chatting they pick up contract hours or work another job. Is this an abuse? Is the company paying for time or output? Is this on the individual or management for underutilizing them?

I could see different kinds of people (being motivated to) making different arguments on each side, and the issues aren’t settled.

Pension/retirement arrangements where the contributions are defined but the benefits are not are a risk to the individual ... and if you get it wrong you don't have enough money in retirement.

I think this is slightly overstated. The most common outcome in this situation is that you work more, the amount of extra work being determined by the size of the error.

In general my preference is that (as a society) we should prefer to impose risks not on individuals but on large organizations who can afford to employ people who take the time to assess those risks and make the necessary decisions, and who have the resources and timescales to be able to weather unexpected downturns. So I think defined-benefit is better than defined-contribution.

This isn’t a bad point, and is strengthened by the observation that pensions benefit from pooled risk. E.g. those that live longer are subsidized by those who unluckily die younger, so everyone on average gets away with slightly lesser contributions (or earlier retirements).

But it misses out on incentive mismatches with pensions. A pension administrator is probably not going to work at the company in question for their whole career, and their incentive career wise is probably not the long term maximization of risk adjusted return for this pension, but instead perhaps taking risky bets hoping they pay off for notoriety, or avoiding risk at all costs to avoid complaints.

And this dovetails into some really hairy aspects of pensions that aren’t often brought up.

For one, they generally punish people for alternative lifestyles. Imagine trying to be a childless person retiring early with a pension that doesn’t kick in until 65 because the typical person has kids and works that long.

Also, pensions can be discriminatory. Imagine having a disease that shortens your lifespan, like MS, or a higher risk factor for something like early onset dementia. It’s entirely possible you’re forced to contribute to a pension program you have every likelihood of not being able to benefit from in your natural lifespan.

For a more common example, women live longer than men. Should men have to contribute less for the same benefits then?

General aviation is a pretty small market. I doubt the development costs can be justified. For reference Lycoming only switched away from carburetors around 2009, plus there’s the installed base of old engines being serviced.

I do think some European engines have looked at diesel though

I start out with a trained ML model, transform it into equivalent C code, then compile that C code targeting WASM.

Then I have a HTTP server in Go, which loads the wasm module on startup, just like dlopen but with a small ~10% performance overhead, rips the HTTP payload out, and calls the WASM function with the arguments filled in.

Why is it good for rates to come down: financing mortgages/cars/etc. comes down

Not necessarily, it depends on the principal cost as well. If principal costs increase in tandem with rate declines, the financed cost doesn’t necessarily change.

You’re missing the inputs into rates rather than the outputs from rates.

Rates mathematically represent the value of a dollar available today versus a dollar available in N years.

If we were to find capital intensive, large scale, low assessed risk, economically productive ventures tomorrow, we would expect rates to rise ceteris paribus as the dollars necessary for those ventures would compete with bonds for investment dollars today.

For example wide spread nuclear fusion, or some kind of rail infrastructure, etc.

In that sense secular declines in rates represent a society that has decided it has reached diminishing returns on capital, at least on a risk adjusted basis.

Similarly rates embed a consideration for default risk, or in the case of a bond denominated by the issuer currency risk. In this sense rates going up is bad.

There’s also the sheer debt and deficits governments run. Higher rates imply higher costs for both.

Which situation you want probably starts to encroach on your political leanings, subject to a few parameters.

Every prediction has error bars, some error bars are smaller than others. I wouldn’t be so quick to throw my hands up.

For example, the yield curve inversion has had quite good predictive ability so far, and it’s predicting a recession. If you buy the fed’s data driven approach, that means its predicting rate decreases.

In that case the long term bond market’s prediction is supported more strongly than the fed’s prediction.

Super excited about WASM / WASI as a standardized way of running microservices. Like cloudflare workers.

I’m not sure what to make of it, but amusingly your link says “OpenBSD version of netbsd_hammer2”, which itself says “NetBSD version of freebsd_hammer2”, which in turn says “FreeBSD version of openbsd_hammer2”.

They’re all under the same profile so I think everyone is sharing?

I used this to run ML models I compiled down to WASM from Go. Really useful to put generic, high performance HTTP / JSON handling in front of some common interchangeable code.

Not the one you were responding to, just a car nerd.

You say that flat-plane engines do not require the complex header primaries that have to cross over from one bank to the other, but AFAIK typical road car and truck V8s do not have such headers[1]. Would the purpose of such headers be to give a cross-plane V8 scavenging about as good as a flat-plane one, all else being equal?

Yes, but as you point out deployments of this technique are limited due to packaging, cost, and even other performance parameters. See the GT40 “bundle of snake” headers for an example.

For a notable example of the other performance parameters, exhaust header lengths are tuned to the powerband of the engine such that shorter headers are more efficient at higher RPMs and longer headers at higher RPMs. This can even get into resonant effects as with intake runners. It’s difficult to design cross bank headers short enough to suit modern high-rpm engines, with the exception of the “hot-V”, exhaust inside intake outside, concept deployed on German V8s from BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche on the 918 (though the latter is a flatplane crank).

In that case, would the cross-plane engine lose most of its distinctive sound?

Yes

I think at least one person did: Buffett. During the pandemic, he put much of the free cash flow earned by Berkshire Hathaway on safe short-term assets like treasury bills, and otherwise used it buy back shares at a stagnant price. In hindsight he looks like a genius, as usual.

Banks are a heavily regulated industry. If despite that we're dependent on bankers operating at the level of Buffett in order to avoid failure our systems are seriously broken.

But even if you're right that "no one expected" rates to go up, banks should not have taken such excessive duration-matching risks.

The issue I take with this argument is that taking duration-matching risk is literally the entire business model behind banking as a fractional reserve affair. Banks borrow short term deposits and lend further out along the yield curve. It turns out that when short rates rise this business model doesn't work well.

And central banks and the regulatory framework around banks exist because there's a large body of knowledge surrounding the bank run tail risk fractional reserve is subject to.

As a final laugh, back in 2017 when people attempted to do the responsible thing, and create The Narrow Bank, a bank with the express purpose of just storing demand deposits with the federal reserve so that there would be no duration risk, the Federal Reserve itself refused to approve the bank's operations because they didn't want to reward depositors for not "supporting the real economy" [1].

Remember at that time there were a lot of concerns about the US following the footsteps of Japan and not being able to generate growth or inflation. The federal reserve took steps to push people further along the risk and yield curve by lowering rates to negative real rates and signaling their intent to keep them there on a sustained basis. Then they rug-pulled everyone with the quickest rate raises in history. Do they really get to escape blame for this behavior?

[1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights...

No one expected interest rate rises like we’ve experienced.

FOMC meeting minutes November, 2021:

  The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‐term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. [1]

But let’s not pretend that consumers, finding that they can’t deposit money with the bank, wouldn’t have likely bought long duration assets themselves (crypto, NFTs, meme stocks, and tech stocks were the market leaders in inflows over this time period, after all).

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary...

This is a Khan Academy video discussing full reserve banking in contrast with the fractional reserve banking system we have today.

Historically it came into existence before fractional reserve, and while it has some disadvantages, one prominent advantage is that bank runs are impossible.

Converting to full reserve banking was proposed during the Great Depression.

I thought it would be topical and interesting to look at and discuss given current happenings in banking.

How are you getting to an at best break-even?

Looking at the most recent 10-K (12/21), if you have more recent figures I’d be happy to use those:

  Total deposits: 173.109B
  Total assets: 211.793B

  13.8B cash
  26.1B available-for-sale (presumably marked to market, so that’s supposed to represent today’s sale price)
  91.3B held to maturity securities (these aren’t marked to market AFAIK, so this represents the value if they’re held to maturity not sold today)
  73.6B in loans net of loss allowances
  Total: 204.8B

Granted, some of this has already been liquidated, but if the government paid out depositors one-for-one, and held the rest of the book to maturity they’d make 31B. That’s basically the same argument employed when stating the government “made” money with TARP.

Is $250k a fixed limit for insured deposits? If your company needs more than $250k to meet a month of payroll, is it advised that you have accounts in multiple banks so that you have the necessary liquidity guaranteed as insured deposits? (E.g. if you need a million you'd need 4 different banks, if you need 5 million you need 20 different banks?)

That is an option, yes. You can also automate it through a couple different ways. Some are third party brokers who then deposits it across multiple institutions keeping each balance below $250k, others are banks that have agreements between each other to share deposits such that the deposit at each institution is below the limit.

For an example of the latter, https://www.intrafinetworkdeposits.com/find-intrafi-network-...

Or can you pay some extra insurance in order to get the required protection without the operational hassle of having to deal with multiple banks?

The above deals with the operational hassle but you can also directly insure deposits.

The most direct way is the Depositors Insurance Fund, which is run out of Massachusetts and has some participating banks.

Incidentally, really large companies like GM or Toyota, fund their payroll through the commercial paper market. As a result they don’t have the large balances you’re imagining sitting around in bank accounts for a monthly withdrawal.

These sorts of notes actually occupy a fun place in the history of the development of currency, but that’s off topic.

developers deploying models is just a non-starter

Can you explain more of what you mean by this? Were developers sufficiently comfortable they completely brushed off the suggestion of needing a tool or did the enterprise already have tooling in place?

Do you have any data on how long these “path dependent” effects are measurable for?

I remember reading a study on the effect of obesity on sperm counts in men, which showed a significant increase in sperm counts for the men once they lost weight after a few months.

Sperm replace themselves more quickly than other cells in the body, but presumably the same normalization should occur in this case absent some sort of persistent self reinforcement mechanisms.