China's Xi vows 'reunification' with Taiwan

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-says-reunification-with-taiwan-must-will-be-realised-2021-10-09/

by gridder • 5 years ago

57 65 5 years ago

rsj_hn3• 5 years ago

This is actually good news, considering the state of China's domestic circumstances.

China knows it's not really in a position to start a war with the West, and so it's trying to gain some of the political benefit of appealing to domestic nationalism without destroying its domestic employment, economy, trade relationships, or overseas wealth as a result of an actual invasion. And it is no secret that this happens whenever China's leadership takes a popularity hit -- most recently with the electricity shortages as a result of their (now suspended) anti-coal push.

If China was really going to attack, it would not be sabre rattling like this.

inglor_cz• 5 years ago

IDK. Argentina has maintained its claim on the Falkland Islands verbally since forever, then in 1982 actually attempted to take them.

rsj_hn3• 5 years ago

The Falklands have 2000 fishermen.

1. How much sabre-rattling did Argentina do in the year prior to invasion? Were they flying military planes in Falkland airspace and publicly threatening to invade?

2. While Argentina could reasonably believe that no one cared about the Falklands (and only invaded after it was mistakenly convinced that the UK would not care) this isn't the case for Taiwan. For example, how many billions in military hardware did the UK sell to the inhabitants of the Falkland islands, how many billions in mutual trade occured between the UK and the Falklands, and how many strategic key industries did the Falklands have a leadership position in? What was strength of the pro-Falkland lobby group in British Parliament?

It's one thing for Argentina to convince itself that the UK would abandon the Falklands, a different thing for China to convince itself that the West will abandon Taiwan.

Moreover China is much more dependent on the rest of the world than Argentina. Argentina can feed itself -- China can't. China can't even keep the lights on without help from Australia.

nix232• 5 years ago

It's just a tactic to keep the the minds outside china calm (oh look china want's to go the freedom loving way), and heat the minds inside china up (how dare those Taiwanese knock off that peaceful inquiry) and buy a little bit more time to buildup the navy, air-force and army.

BTW: I don't believe that anyone would help Taiwan, there is just nothing to win (economically) and that's the really sad point...and china knows it, so does the US, neither the US nor China could win a war against each other...proxy war? Pure waste of money.

randomopining• 5 years ago

Yeah but the Domino Theory is back with Taiwan.

If ccp take Taiwan, they will be able to keep expanding and economically swallow other countries and instill their autocratic security apparatus around the world.

rsj_hn3• 5 years ago

You are saying that sabre-rattling -- e.g. violating Taiwanese airspace, etc., is a tactic to keep people outside China calm?

I am confused about how you are getting from A to B there.

In terms of a hot shooting war with the West or coming to Taiwan's military aid, who knows if anyone would do it?

But in terms of seizing all of China's foreign reserve assets and imposing trade embargoes to destroy their economy? You bet people would do it. Without a second thought. It would instantly happen, and would be very bad news to an economy not self-sufficient in either food or energy, and with 40% of their GDP dependent on exports to the West.

watersb• 5 years ago

The United States had a formal treaty obligation to defend Taiwan... that expired in 1980.

But such a pact may soon be realized once more.

https://www.cato.org/commentary/reborn-us-taiwan-military-al...

fold3• 5 years ago

Main incentive to keep Taiwan independent is for the USA to use the island as a literal aircraft carrier that cannot drown. It is military strategic point for the USA.

Also TSMC is one of the few thing that keep Taiwan protected.

dirtyid2• 5 years ago

Xi's reiterating boilerplate language on the issue since forever. This has nothing to do with distracting from domestic politics. It's generic status-quo messaging after recent US-Sino talks that reaffirmed One China Policy. Especially timed around PRC national day on Oct 1st and ROC national day on Oct 1th. This is routine not rattling.

bllguo2• 5 years ago

this is really not news at all, it's been obvious that force was not on the table. why are people so content to consume only US sources about these issues? It's clearly the US that has been chomping at the bit for an excuse to start another war

tonfreed• 5 years ago

The scarier thing is that they also laid claim to the Ryuku islands. Islands that have never been considered Chinese and have been nominally part of the Japanese sphere for 400 years. They also threatened to nuke Japan into unconditional surrender.

mytailorisrich7• 5 years ago

Reunification in this case is as legitimate as speaking of German reunification before 1990 or Korean reunification now.

So are the quotation marks because they are actually quoting or because of some other reason?...

In this article it seems to me that they do beyond quoting.

chrisseaton4• 5 years ago

Why are people so suspicious of quotation marks these days? People are always having a go at the BBC for using them as well.

It's a quotation, so they've used quotation marks. It's not a mystery.

mytailorisrich7• 5 years ago

It's healthy suspicion, more than a suspicion, actually when you read this article and others.

Of course if it's a direct quotation then quotation marks are appropriate, but then it becomes something else when a term is always between quotation marks throughout the article. For instance:

"Peaceful "reunification" best meets the overall interests of the Taiwanese people, but China will protect its sovereignty and unity, he added."

Why is 'reunification' quoted there?

Since you mention the BBC, I've noticed that they now always write "democratic Taiwan" instead of just "Taiwan"...

hker2• 5 years ago

Because the history of Taiwan is complicated.

If you count Taiwan as a part to be unified under CCP rule, then by similar accounts you may as well argue that Iran and Iraq as parts to be unified under CCP rule.

From the Wikipedia page on Taiwan [1], check out the Chronological phases on the right, you can see that Taiwan has been ruled by different regimes:

* Prehistory to 1624

* Dutch Formosa 1624–1662

* Spanish Formosa 1626–1642

* Kingdom of Tungning 1661–1683

* Qing rule 1683–1895

* Japanese rule 1895–1945

* Republic of China rule 1945–present

Among them:

- the Kingdom of Tungning was a loyalist to Ming dynasty when Qing dynasty was ruling mainland China,

- later Qing dynasty partly ruled Taiwan,

- now the Repulic of China is ruling Taiwan when CCP is ruling mainland China.

Then one may ask why Taiwan should be a part to be unified under CCP rule, as Xi implies, instead of being ruled by the Republic of China.

One argument is that Taiwan has been ruled by regimes associated with Mainland China in the past (loyalist to Ming dynasty after it lost, then partly by Qing dynasty), hence by extension to be ruled by the current ruler of mainland China, CCP.

But if you accept this argument, then you may notice that the Mongol empire (Yuan dynasty) once ruled Iran and Iraq and more [2]. If we ignore the past, then we may ask if Taiwan should be ruled by the mainland Chinese regime, CCP, or should be a sovereign country ruled by the Republic of China as the President of Taiwan said [3].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_Empire

[3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/taiw...

mytailorisrich7• 5 years ago

Flooding others with a mass of data is a rhetoric trick.

Again, the situation is exactly like Germany and Korea. China is currently split and this is an issue of reunification.

Taiwan is part of China and the last territory of the Republic of China, whose government was kicked out of the mainland by the communist. Today is national day in Taiwan and that commemorates the fall of the Empire and the founding of the Republic of China...

Now, some people in Taiwan are opposed to reunification because of the current regime on the mainland, some are opposed to reunification full stop and want Taiwan to remain an independent country. That's the factual situation.

But calling into question the term 'reunification' is purely propaganda in order to paint the PRC as trying to invade a foreign country like if they wanted to invade Vietnam or another neighbour. From the West's POV this is a standard divide and conquer strategy.

anm893• 5 years ago

I've recently been really digging in on China, and the more I read / learn, the less threatening (not evil, the CCP is certainly plenty evil) I perceive them.

A starter on this is the three part polymatter series.

1) China has a monster of a demographics problem that they are clearly lying about with census data:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmZWIwKdXC4

2) It's pretty well established at this point that Chinese property markets have serious issues which threaten systemic issues:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgVXRtq5EIg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlbMsS4u5EY

3) Their resource situation, especially water issues are serious:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRUc4gTO-PE&t=918s

4) They have terrible Geography from a military perspective and are not nearly as militarily strong as they project

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNaIKatux1E

5) And the biggest one. Chinese citizens are increasingly not prosperous enough to be ok with it. Also the gender imbalance is so severe that there are guaranteed to be 10s of millions of angry single men over the next decades, almost certain to increase social discord.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y87R3Lp0jd0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYaA69EvHGw

They have also seriously mishandled their relationship with Australia who they really needed which was just long term cemented with the AUUKUS alliance.

Another interesting channel which I found because she was talking about evergrande default over three years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHwYF8GGE-8

Video on frequent structural disasters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RElGXLwWTvI

I think over the next 30 years, the US tripping over it's own feet is a bigger risk than anything China related

tonyedgecombe• 5 years ago

All of those things could be what makes China dangerous.

likpok• 5 years ago

The classic suggestion of how to solve a large population of restless young men is to invade somewhere. That’s not exactly a comforting thought, even if China is unlikely to invade the US.

Certainly China would not be the first country to ramp up nationalism to respond to dissatisfaction at home.

anm893• 5 years ago

I absolutely think they will and it will be problematic. But that's NK territory. Not superpower we need to be afraid of on equal terms. They are still very different.

xedrac• 5 years ago

If Hollywood is to be believed, then about 50% of those young men will be gay and not so unhappy about their situation...

david-gpu• 5 years ago

War reduces the number of young men, including single angry young men. I hope that is not how the demographic gap will be resolved, but it is a possibility that weighs heavily in my mind.

anm893• 5 years ago

Never thought about that angle. I have no doubt that fact has been considered by officials at some point.

qqtt• 5 years ago

Another interesting historical analogue to the current situation with China is the Soviet Union - who some of us can remember was also poised to massively overtake the American economy at one point. History had other plans and in particular, things like the belts & roads initiative feel like very large echoes of this not-so-distant past.

You might say that China has learned the lessons of the failing Soviet Union's plans for expansion and domination, but so too has more democratically focused allies as things like AUUKUS & TPP (with or without USA) can attest.

Bloomberg had a good piece about this worth reading

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-08-12/soviet...

aeternum• 5 years ago

the gender imbalance is so severe that there are guaranteed to be 10s of millions of angry single men over the next decades

It's crazy to me that the CCP didn't see this as a problem. There must be a reason they let it continue, more male soldiers for a potential war? Thought men were more likely to contribute to the workforce?

cwwc2• 5 years ago

Additionally.. I’ve been thinking that the FL condo collapse scenario will be playing out across China over the next decades (combo of building too fast, with sub par materials, and bribed inspectors). Tho, I do disagree on a macro level with you, I don’t think your points are talked about nary at all.

ajuc• 5 years ago

It's sad that UN is so useless. This kind of rhetoric by a state leader should result in sanctions.

FridayoLeary2• 5 years ago

Security Council veto. The UN is one of the more useless bodies in existence. Their principal function is to make everybody "feel good" ("the United Nations will sort <insert crisis here> out!") and issue meaningless resolutions.

dragonwriter2• 5 years ago

Security Council veto.

...the UNGA adopted a bypass mechanism in 1950, and it was first used in 1951 and had been used several times since.

tikwidd3• 5 years ago

The ROC also 'vows reunification' with the Chinese mainland. It's a standard line in the One China diplomatic framework which both states follow.

Edit: can we get the title changed to "Xi vows 'peaceful reunification' with Taiwan"? This better reflects the content of the article:

  BEIJING, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed on Saturday to achieve "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, and did not directly mention the use of force after a week of tensions with the Chinese-claimed island that sparked international concern.

oliwarner2• 5 years ago

Declaring your intentions while sharpening your weapons is never peaceful. It's already an act of aggression.

And I thought the current ROC line (at least, the leading party's line) has no interest in "One China".

tikwidd3• 5 years ago

Declaring peaceful intentions strikes me as the opposite of aggression.

Dero8• 5 years ago

The ROC also 'vows reunification' with the Chinese mainland.

Source please. All I've heard about from Taiwan in the past decade are simply calls for independance, especially since Tsai won presidency (twice).

tikwidd3• 5 years ago

There are calls for independence, but ROC maintains a claim over the Chinese mainland which constitutionally requires a referendum to change. Source: ROC constitution.

cjbenedikt• 5 years ago

Most commentators obsession with China possibly invading Taiwan is flabbergasting. How many countries has China invaded over the course of say the last 200 years and how many the US? Violating Taiwan's airspace from mainland China is fairly easy as due to their geographic proximity both countries airspaces actually overlap in places. Just a question on how the media paints the picture.

ithkuil3• 5 years ago

Tibet?

Yes, China's invasions pale in comparison to US, but Tibet is relevant to the discussion because it's a disputed territory, i.e. a territory that the Chinese government doesn't recognize as a foreign country. This doesn't make it less of an invasion for people who hold the opposite view.

jcranmer• 5 years ago

Since World War 2, China has invaded Tibet, Korea, Vietnam, and India (twice). The US has invaded Korea, Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, Iraq (twice), and Afghanistan in that same timeframe.

While China has been less militarily aggressive than the US in recent history, that should not be understood as not militarily aggressive at all. Especially as three of the US invasions were in direct response to others' aggression and not naked aggression, as all of China's invasions have been.

jryle70• 5 years ago

You should be concerned if you're China's neighbor. In addition to the ones listed above, China had a border conflict with USSR in 1969 in Far East - [0]. China invaded the contested Paracel islands which was under South Vietnam's control at the time - [1]. China killed 64 Vietnamese solder in the Johnson South Reef Skirmish - [2]

Worst of all, China directly supported and controlled Khmer Rouge, causing the death of at least a million Cambodians, 25% of their population. The worst genocide since WW2 that seems to have been gradually forgotten - [3]. Note that most Western countries also bore the responsibility, albeit indirectly, by the virtue of looking the other way.

All of that happened when China was only a regional power with a poor economy.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Paracel_Islands [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson_South_Reef_Skirmish [3] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian_genocide

closetnerd• 5 years ago

Agree that China is being increasingly portrayed as an enemy. Though taking it as serious economic competitor is necessary. Wish we didn’t conflate the two.

solarkraft• 5 years ago

Obligatory Taiwan China relations comment: Taiwan was never a part of the PRC and doesn’t intend to be. While not officially a country (due to China’s whining), for all intents and purposes it absolutely is.

With that out of the way, does this present anything new?

China's Xi vows 'reunification' with Taiwan

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