Nintendo: Apple's Latest Prey

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904888304576473493285312436.html

by chaostheory • 15 years ago

26 34 15 years ago

online.wsj.com

smackfu2• 15 years ago

Was anyone ever excited about the 3DS, or its pricetag? Think that is more to blame than Apple.

Most my favorite games over the last 3-4 years have been on the DS so I might have been if it hadn't been for the fact that I've been enjoying games on my iPhone and iPad almost as much.

If Square/Enix released more games for those platforms I'd be excited and would stop even considering getting a 3DS.

hugh35• 15 years ago

I wasn't really aware that it existed until Zero Punctuation reviewed Zelda for it the other day. Maybe I'm in a rather atypical demographic here in the intersection between "people with only a vague awareness of video games" and "people who watch Zero Punctuation", but there ya go.

Gring• 15 years ago

Recently tried Zelda 3D and it nearly pushed me over the edge of insta-buy. Glad I waited.

MrVitaliy2• 15 years ago

I think Nintendo's valuables are not in hardware (anyone can build a hand-held console these days) but in the huge library of very famous games.

If 3DS has lost the game, nothing stops Nintendo from re-releasing some of popular old games for iPhone (perhaps developing a descent emulator for iOS) and keep writing more excellent games in future.

Example: iD made another stash of green from Apple's app store when Carmack released Wolfenstein 3D for iPhone.

kabdib• 15 years ago

If they do ports, then Nintendo stops being a hardware company.

They'd have to fire a /lot/ of people, for starters.

r00fus2• 15 years ago

It'd be great for Nintendo if Apple's game market allowed for decently priced games, but hell even StreetFighter4 is like $7 now.

Not only is Apple disrupting Nintendo's hardware strategy, they're disrupting Nintendo's software pricing.

There is no livable future for Nintendo as an Apple software shop.

glhaynes• 15 years ago

Nintendo's in an awfully tough spot here. Their success in expanding the market to non-gamers (the "blue ocean strategy") puts them in exactly the wrong place for 2011 where it appears likely that most dedicated gaming systems are going to be owned by the hardcore going forward. Many of their newly-won customers from the last few years now have all the games they could want on systems they already own and those games have average price tags of maybe 20% of what they are on traditional platforms. And they're better connected for social, too.

So Nintendo doesn't have room to make particularly enticing hardware - it'd have to be super-cheap to tear people away from platforms they already own for other reasons but it'd probably have to be super-expensive to be different enough to be exciting.

And, even worse for them, the bottom has completely dropped out of software pricing. It's tough to pay $40 for a 3DS game that I'm likely to play less than something for $2.99 on the App Store. I'd buy Mario and Zelda for it, but that's probably it.

With the very Nintendo "make something cheap but that's so different and so cool that everybody with an iPad would still want it" option off the table, what can they do? Can they survive just selling <$10 games on somebody else's hardware? Maybe a partnership? An Android partnership doesn't seem likely to deliver Nintendo quality in the short term at least and Apple is quite unlikely to partner with them. No other mobile platform seems worth their time.

I do wonder if there's a team working on Zelda for iOS... And another team preparing a massive reorganization. Seems like a terrible option but I don't see what else is going to be available to them. Hope they can find a good way out of it because they're one of the most innovative companies in the world.

copenja• 15 years ago

I agree with the general gist of your post, but I actually think there is still a large market for casual gaming hardware in the living room.

Consider that the Microsoft Kinect broke the record for consumer electronic devices for selling the most units in 60 days. Yes, it even outsold the iPad.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fasterforward/2011/03/kinec...

flamingbuffalo• 15 years ago

it's probably also worth noting that every time there are new apple tv rumors they're about it including its own app store - if that ever happens it will be very interesting to see what people go for.

hugh35• 15 years ago

Are casual gamers the ones who buy devices in the first 60 days after launch, though? Most "casual" gamers probably still aren't really sure exactly what a Kinect is or what it does. (I know I'm not...)

neutronicus• 15 years ago

Eh, a lot of people got in on the Wii for Wii-fit and the various branded clones. iOS can't really touch that.

blackboxxx• 15 years ago

Nintendo have two things going for them: quality products, and the willingness and ability to innovate. They could still be relevant. I hope so. I think they're a great company.

ja27• 15 years ago

Lately when friends ask my advice about which DS, I suggest getting an iPod Touch instead unless they're really dying to have Nintendo property games (Mario). It does more than just games, no cartridges to lose, and the kids will want an iPod soon anyways.

Even the equivalent games are cheaper. LEGO Harry Potter is $4.99 on iOS vs. $14.99-19.99 on the DS. Sims 3 is $6.99 on iOS vs. $27.99 on the DS.

TikiTDO2• 15 years ago

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that when most people think of a DS, or any other Nintendo product, the Nintendo properties are the first thing on their minds. If you are getting a DS you probably want to play Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, or Metroid. If those do not interest you, then you are still more likely to be interested in some sort of JRPG or maybe a fighting game.

I am a gamer, and I was not even aware that there was any sort of market for LEGO Harry Potter or Sims 3 on a DS. In this case I think the stats support my view: http://www.gamestats.com/index/gpm/nintendo-ds.html

You may note there are only four non-Nintendo properties in the top 20 popular games, and of them only one (GTA) has a native iOS port, while one more (FF6) could technically run on a SNES emulator. I hope no one asking you for game platform advice was hoping to play any of the most popular portable games of the day.

rexf• 15 years ago

As a Nintendo customer, their software lineup has become very uncompelling. To the point where my Wii & DS haven't been turned on in over a year+ and there's no reason to buy the 3DS (even with price drop). N64 ports and other remakes aren't appealing.

Nintendo has been complacent riding the gravy train of casual gaming (Wii Sports type minigames, fitness, etc) for great financial success that doesn't constitute epic AAA gaming (core franchises like Zelda, Metroid, etc).

They aren't competing well VS direct competition (Sony, MS). With iOS & Android platforms to contend with, it isn't going to get any easier for Nintendo.

To compete against free & .99 cent app store games, Nintendo needs compelling, epic AAA games at the $30+ price point that they charge for. Not 3rd party shovelware.

JoelMcCracken• 15 years ago

Apple has huge stashes of cash. I keep wondering when they'll do something, like purchasing Nintendo. So far, all of their purchases have seemed pretty minor.

I think most iOS games are low quality. Even when they are extremely polished, they lack depth. Having brand new mario and zelda games on the platforms would reverse this.

Beyond that, from the little bit that I know about Nintendo's next console platform, it sounds basically exactly like Apple TV plus an iPad.

Beyond that, Apple also has a really strong platform for distributing software over the air to non-desktop/laptop devices. I think Apple is in a better position for next-gen gaming. I don't know if the next Nintendo console is going to have games that are distributed via physical media, but if they do, I wont be buying one. At this point, having to go out and buy a game, and getting up to switch games, are big negatives.

I'm not sure if nintendo has enough experience to do this right. It looks like 3ds games are still sent via physical media, not over the net. Besides that, using the Wii for watching Netflix nightly leaves me with the distinct impression that the Wii was designed with internet usage almost as an afterthought, certainly not as a core function of the device. Which is fine, but even basic functionality improvements haven't happened. Every time you switch networks on the wii, it asks you to perform a system update, which takes 5+ minutes to check to see if your system needs updated. Which seems insane to me for something that amounts to sending a hash of app_ids -> versions.

Additionally, Apple tries to remain very family-friendly, which is a market that Nintendo dominates in the traditional gaming market.

It certainly seems like a smart move.

Steko• 15 years ago

I'd guess in about 18 months when Wii U flops in holiday 2012 there is going to be a huge bidding war between Microsoft and Apple for Nintendo exclusivity.

smackfu2• 15 years ago

If you were a parent, which would you rather buy?

1. iPod Touch, $229. Most games are $1, but some go up to $5.

2. 3DS, $249. Many games are $40. Even old games are $20.

Even with a price drop, I'm not sure the economics work out for Nintendo.

hugh35• 15 years ago

By the time my kids are old enough to be trusted with portable electronic devices, they'll be old enough to have their own allowances and make their own damn decision about what do buy.

sebkomianos• 15 years ago

I am neither the best analyst nor do I have any information. But I am going to comment on this mainly because, having owned almost everything they released and because I have a lot of great memories from its games, I am really emotional about Nintendo.

They have been in the industry for almost 40 years: started distributing Magnavox in 1974, made huge success with Donkey Kong arcade in 1981 and released their first consoles in the beginning of the same decade (Game Watch and Famicom-NES).

No company has made it that far, no company has been so innovative and no company has had the lows of Ninty (Sony is probably having a bad era with PS3 but that's their first bad release -handhelds excluded- and Microsoft has been doing fantastic with all XBoxes). Furthermore, no company managed to even come close to Nintendo in the handhelds.

As much as I love Apple (and can even consider myself kind of a fanboy) I just can't stand it when they try to involve it everywhere and explain everything as a result of its success.

Nintendo is Nintendo's prey, they dug the hole that they fell into. The 3DS is not selling bad because people are buying Angry Birds instead of Super Mario. It's not selling well because, well, what is there to sell? It's unbelievable that Nintendo released a handheld with such a weak launch-titles line. Tell me one game that will make you want to buy 3DS. You don't buy a console and then wait for games to come out. You want the games there. Unless it's something really major, like the Wii, when you can see its potential and you can do with games like Wii Sports for a while.

But the 3DS is a handheld, I am not going to buy it just to spend 10 minutes on a Piccadilly line ride playing mini games and waiting for a few major games to come out, when they come, with the quality they come out, etc.. I can compare that to playing Doodle Jump and Doodle Jump wins easily. What I can't compare to Doodle Jump is a Zelda/Mario/AAA game on my 3DS.

It's not about Apple vs Nintendo, nobody will buy an iPhone to play video games. And it's not about whether Nintendo can do well as a iOS/Android/WebOS games developer. Of course they can and I hope they do if they get in such a bad position. What it really is about is whether Nintendo can help handheld gaming keep its value.

Also, it's not hard to see that they are going to fall into another hole if they don't do MAJOR things with the WiiU. So I am kind of glad that the 3DS release wasn't successful, I can hope they are getting a few messages..

dpcan3• 15 years ago

My Kids have DS's. But for Christmas, I bought each of them and my wife an iPod touch.

The concept was simple, I spend about $70 more per device, but instead of buying $500 worth of games over the next 2 years, I will probably spend $50. Why buy $35 DS games when the kids are happy with free and $2 iOS games?

Also, Nintendo should have been smarter than to bet on 3D. The theaters can do it to up-charge us for a minimally better experience, but most people could care less if 3D just went away. The fact that Nintendo bought into "3D is the future" feels very 1985 to me.

The DS and DSi are so good, and the kids love them so much, my personal opinion is simply to move in the direction handhelds have been moving already - better graphics and faster processors. The next step is to lower the prices of their games, but I don't see that happening.

allenp• 15 years ago

Interesting approach. I imagine an iTunes/AppStore allowance would be easier to manage as well.

dpcan3• 15 years ago

I buy the kids $20 gift cards for their birthdays now and they end up buying 10-15 games.

mcphilip• 15 years ago

re: 3D movies. Signs are starting to show that movie goers are not merely indifferent to 3D but are starting to avoid it when given the 2D option [1]. Definitely not a good sign for Nintendo's bet on 3D technology. Brings to mind how many reviewers of the Zelda Ocarina of Time 3DS version talked about switching off the 3D features since they added nothing to, if not detracted from, the overall experience.

[1]http://www.economist.com/node/18988914?story_id=18988914

MrVitaliy2• 15 years ago

Having wifi capable DS with ability to purchase games via some NintendoApp Store would significantly reduce games cost, since physical cartridge, box and game manuals are no longer required.

muhfuhkuh• 15 years ago

In theory, but I bet Nintendo is infinitely more militant about their approval process for their version of the App Store than Apple ever could be (not to mention their revenue sharing and pricing policy per app).

And, knowing them, it'll be the same stale list of 1st party Mario games, Tetris, bad EA ports, and flash or iPhone powerhouse game du jour all for the low, low price of $15 a game, a savings of $10 over cartridges. Break out the noisemakers, what a savings!

christoph• 15 years ago

I couldn't agree more, Plants vs. Zombies is one of my most played games of late. I paid something like £1.19 for it on the App Store. It's £15 to £25 on the DS. The iOS version is infinitely better since it can get upgraded OTA and I can play it on a much larger screen (iPad).

r00fus2• 15 years ago

Re: 3D, it's way beyond Nintendo...

It does seem many seemingly sane companies are going off the deep end here. What's with 3D? No one I know cares for or buys this crap (at least knowingly, one happened to buy a 3D-capable HDTV, but he's never attested to using it for that purpose)

hugh35• 15 years ago

Y'know what it reminds me of? The "Virtual Reality" craze of the early 90s. Everybody went on about how awesome it was that in a few years time, once the graphics hardware caught up, we'd all be putting on virtual reality helmets, not just for games, but for everything. "Man", people said after playing Dactyl Nightmare for the first time, "when the graphics get better, and we figure out how to make small, light screens, this is going to be awesome!"

What happened? Well, the graphics caught up, and we figured out how to make small, light screens, but we also figured out that wearing a virtual reality helmet is annoying, gives you a headache, and really doesn't give you any more feeling of immersion than just watching a big flat screen.

Scaevolus• 15 years ago

Some people like 3D-capable LCDs because they can play FPS games better at 120Hz-- but they don't bother using it for actual 3D.

hugh35• 15 years ago

For all that has been said about gaming on the iPod/Android, the state of the art in games there is still pretty low-rent, low-budget.

I mean, what's the big hit? Angry Birds, which looks like it was written by one guy in two weeks. Sure, people enjoy playing it, but it strikes me that the market for big fancy games is still not served on these devices.

There's a market in between "casual" and "hardcore". I don't want a game I have to practice for five hundred hours before I stop being a "n00b"... but on the other hand I do want a game that can really hold my attention on a twelve-hour plane ride. Something with a real story, and an adventure, that progresses as I play through it, and where my reward for playing more is something other than "now do the same thing with a more complicated series of boxes".

Nintendo: Apple's Latest Prey

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