US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross Straits Invasion

https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2021/03/all-measures-short-of-cross-straits.html

by kenneth • 5 years ago

93 183 5 years ago

scholars-stage.blogspot.com

roenxi2• 5 years ago

It always seemed a bit unlikely that a manufacturing superpower gets defeated on its own turf. If WWIII breaks out over Taiwan, it is hard to see how China doesn't get what it wants in the manner the article describes.

There is some evidence between the way the US was handling the middle east and last years notable war [0] that the military future involves drones. It isn't at all obvious from the peanut gallery that China will be at a disadvantage unless the situation gets apocalyptic. Even then, if they just wait or apply slow pressure it seems likely they'll eclipse the US to the point where Americans just can't afford to sustain operations on China's doorstep. China has all this money and America has all those debts. Wars are expensive.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war

xenihn• 5 years ago

China will be able to temporarily convert its commercial industrial factory output into wartime use and just spam drones at Taiwan. All of the infrastructure is already there, a switch just needs to be flipped. The US did the same in WW2, though instead of drones back then, it was planes, tanks, and munitions.

echelon3• 5 years ago

The US has nukes now. The fight wouldn't last long enough to make use of those factories.

throwaway4good9• 5 years ago

Exactly.

The war is already lost.

And for every year that China outgrows the US it just becomes more obvious.

throwaway4good9• 5 years ago

The alternative is for the US to pick a fight in an asymetric manner.

Sow discontent in the periphery of China (HK, Xinjiang, Tibet). Tech war.

jimbob45• 5 years ago

What good is a war on/for Taiwan? The magic of Taiwan is the brains of the scientists and the tribal knowledge of the researchers. Killing them/getting them killed isn’t going to help you acquire them.

bertjk• 5 years ago

Can you name a single war that was started with logical reasons more than emotional ones?

throwaway4good9• 5 years ago

You assume that China would be the initiator of the war.

_wt8k3• 5 years ago

Taiwan has symbolic value. The CCP has made "reunification" a major part of its "platform" for decades, and a leader who accomplishes that will go down in history in the pantheon of Chinese leaders alongside Mao. So, a CCP leader seeking glory would attempt unification if he judges that China can win. On the other side, the US is Taiwan's security guarantor, and if the US lets China take Taiwan, the US will lose credibility with its Asian allies. Asian countries wary of China may recalculate the power calculus and feel the need to acquiesce to China. Taiwan is also a symbol of the democratic ideals of China's founding and proof that democracy is compatible with so-called "Asian values." Destroying Taiwan eliminates an ideological threat to the CCP's non-democratic legitimacy.

Strategically, Taiwan is an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" that China wants.

jayd16• 5 years ago

If Taiwan looks like it might be a battleground, then I guess the question is what country the elites flee to.

01100011• 5 years ago

If you think China cares about murdering smart people you need to read up on their history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

rmk3• 5 years ago

The PLAN has been building up its navy and is expected to handily exceed the USN in the next 5 years. Basically, in a short period of 5-10 years, the PLAN has grown from insignificance into a serious adversary that builds capable ships that can give the USN serious headaches. Most of the PLAN's numbers are in corvettes and attack craft, to US's heavier and larger vessels (PLAN has something like 2 or 3 aircraft carriers to USN's 11 something).

The PRC has also invested heavily in missile technology and is perhaps ahead of the US in anti-ship missiles. It has also built up small positions that can be built up easily on the disputed reefs etc. in the South China Sea in anticipation of getting blockaded.

I say all of this in support of the thesis that drones will play a less decisive role than the navies of the two countries.

jonnybgood• 5 years ago

Most of what you state about China doesn't mean anything in modern warfare. It's not about who has the bigger gun or most guns, but who can use their guns most effectively. Consider that China has no experience in modern warfare or large scale conflict. How effective do you think China will be against a highly experienced adversary?

magicsmoke2• 5 years ago

It's refreshing to see a take on this conflict that runs counter to the conventional take of a cataclysmic contest over an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and a frankly more realistic scenario of the PRC salami slicing it's way towards increased control of the island while trying to minimize the collateral damage an actual war would bring. The idea of imposing an inspection of all shipping into Taiwan to block military shipments while allowing civilian shipping hints of the Cuban missile crisis.

Still, the US could easily run "inspections" of its own on Chinese oil tankers in the Indian ocean. That's why I'm convinced that the ultimate confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan won't happen anywhere near Taiwan at all. Rather, China will delay until they can fight the US Navy in the Indian ocean.

ardit335• 5 years ago

China will absolutely get blockaded itself, as they can't project power, meanwhile get the rest of the world against them.

They don't have much oil, and their economy will be crippled to a standstill.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/China_Oi...

antiviral• 5 years ago

Perhaps this is why they are trying to rebuild a Silk Road across Eurasia, which would cross through the mid-east?

throwaway4good9• 5 years ago

I keep reading this but I don't understand.

In a naval embargo scenario, why wouldn't China simply get its oil from Russia? Delivered over land.

adventured• 5 years ago

Nobody is blockading China. Nobody would dare. Biden just said he's fine with slavery in China, he won't so much as voice a negative opinion about their human rights atrocities. The Europeans aren't much better. Absolutely nobody is blockading them. The Saudis and Russians will sell China all the oil it cares to buy, and the Russians can deliver it via pipeline trivially.

Besides that, they're not going to need most of that oil in ~20 years.

Quick question: what has happened to China as a result of what they did regarding the pandemic? Millions of people just died, along tens of trillions of dollars in economic destruction. They lied about the pandemic, they hid the outbreak as long as they could, they're still hiding information about its origin and the early days. Barely anyone even cares to dispute that, they all just shrug about it. Where are the sanctions? Where's the blockade? Right. Nobody dares. Barely so much as a squeak in their direction. If I'm China I'm starting to ask: well then, what else can I get away with so easily?

Let's see here. They don't care when I enslave 500,000 people to pick cotton. They don't care when I commit cultural genocide and put millions of people in camps. They don't care when I violate prominent international agreements at will and strip Hong Kong of all of its rights. They don't care when I support a military dictatorship and coup in Myanmar. They don't care when I prop up and enable a crazy nuclear dictatorship in North Korea. They don't care when I destroy Tibet and culturally strip the entire nation. They don't care when I annex territory the size of France - from numerous of my neighbors - in the South China Sea by military force. And so on. (and before anyone bothers, that I pointed out these facts about China doesn't simultaneously imply the US is The Good Guy, I'll save someone that logic failure)

But oh boy, the world is suddenly going to care about Taiwan as China begins their annexation formally. The buck stops there, no doubt about it. Un huh.

Before another 10-15 years goes by they're going to have the world's most powerful military overall (they'll still lag in tech in some areas). It's exceptionally obvious. The US can't afford to continue its global projection, it's rapidly weakening (courtesy of the extraordinarily stupid decisions it has made fiscally over the past 20 years), and China is just beginning its global projection phase; one will contract, one will de facto conquer the world. The pandemic helped tip the US over fiscally into a more rapid downward spiral, it pulled that future forward by a lot.

Have you seen China's export machine during the pandemic? They took market share. They've become far more potent economically while their competitors have been severely weakened. As a future bet, who's taking Boeing versus China at this point? Intel & Co. vs China's future in semiconductors? The US is in a very bad position.

Within that 15 year span of time China will be sailing aircraft carriers past Hawaii and off the Pacific US coast, as a show of force, which the US will be entirely unable to stop.

I've rarely seen anything more obvious geo-politically than what is about to happen regarding China. Asia is theirs, absolutely nothing can stop that outcome. They'll even compete toe-to-toe in Latin America for influence, right in the US backyard (as we have been doing in their backyard for so long). The best the US and its allies can hope for is to hold some political & economic ground in Asia and not be entirely neutralized in the region.

The age of the American superpower is over. Act accordingly. The only thing the US is good for now is resource - wealth - extraction, while it lasts (debased by the minute). Then, afterward, get out while you can. Go somewhere nicer, somewhere sane, somewhere with a functional government, a decent culture, a future of prosperity and reason - that isn't the future of the US.

dirtyid6• 5 years ago

China is not Japan. China is the 5th largest oil producer in the world, is banking the largest strategic oil reserve, has enough domestic resources and sufficient food security to operate on a self-sustaining war economy, forever. The imports are needed to maintain / grow, but in case of total war footing, there's more than enough production for the war machine even if civilians has to eat rice and ride bikes again. So the question is can PRC break USN blockade or sufficiently prosecute a war until US decide Taiwan is not worth it. If both navies are trading hulls in a shooting war how much loses before USN realizes any victory would be pyrrhic one in which they lose naval hegemony to pursue their global interests. The entirety of Chinese navy which is rapidly closing gap with USN has one goal - to deter / break a USN blockade and secure oil route to ME. All other purposes like Taiwan and SCS is automatically secured if it can do so. And even if China loses, it can still become a giant north korea that's sufficiently close to Taiwan to turn it into Yemen.

echelon3• 5 years ago

Rather, China will delay until they can fight the US Navy in the Indian ocean.

This seems like the sane approach for China.

How long will it take China to build its navy to the point it can defeat the US fleet?

What are the chances that a provocation by either side will lead to confrontation before this point?

Will the US and its allies attempt to make war before China takes the lead?

Animats2• 5 years ago

How long will it take China to build its navy to the point it can defeat the US fleet?

The PLAN is growing fast. Its size has tripled in the last 20 years, and right now it has more warships than the USN. The average size is smaller, but the goal is 400 ships by 2025. Having a big commercial shipbuilding industry helps. The US no longer has much of one; China has a large one.

China's third aircraft carrier is under construction. The first carrier was a refurbished Russian one. The second one was an improved version of that. The third one is comparable in size to a US carrier but without nuclear power. The next generation may have nuclear power. That's expected later in this decade.

China has a substantial truck-mounted land-based missile capability for sinking ships in areas offshore of China. This is a serious threat to USN carrier groups.

msh4• 5 years ago

Rather, China will delay until they can fight the US Navy in the Indian ocean.

Remember that there are two other large navies in the area that are hostile to china (india and japan, both who have significant blue water navies)

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

India and Japan, large navy, sorry, I can't stop laughing.

dnautics4• 5 years ago

China will delay until they can fight the US Navy in the Indian ocean.

Honestly a fight with the us in the Indian ocean is not what they have to worry about. They have to worry about pirates attacking their tankers and stealing oil. They have to worry about iran going to war with saudi arabia (or in the shorter term, iran hijacking chinese flagged tankers coming from saudi arabia or vice versa -- like already happened this year except with south korea). They have to worry about belt and road policies making yellow people (I'm yellow and sadly afraid to visit africa for fear of being mistaken as chinese, e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52805202) resented across africa and all of their middle management exploiters getting murdered by locals with african governments turning a blind eye because they know that debt forgiveness is around the corner.

ardit335• 5 years ago

China cannot itself sustain a blockade of Taiwan if the US intervenes.

It will be blockaded itself, as the US can within 48hrs blockade all commercial traffic in and out of china. China doesn't have much oil by itself, and it needs imports to properly feed its population.

It will end up like those scenarios, where the sieging forces, get sieged and cut off itself. Its navy is a near-shore force, and just can't project force outside the China sea. They can completely control the part of China sea near about 200-400km near its shore, but it will be unable to go any further than that.

It might end up like a Japan, 1941 scenario. They might be able to score some early surprise wins, but on the long term they are doomed to lose the war.

Ps. While china is experiencing a boom like the 50s and 60s in the USA (lots of infrastructure being built), China's demographic is aging, and we might see a scenario that the current boom will just slow down, and itself end up in a situation like Japan in the 90s, or USA itself in the 70s. It will reach a peak in the next 10 years (economically) and start leveling off to more normal rates of growth.

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

And at the end US nukes China, and still the good guy.

Joke aside, the real question is: will US wage war on China for Taiwan.

I think it's highly unlikely.

ardit335• 5 years ago

I think they will absolutely intervene. The sentiment in the US against china is really negative...

rococode• 5 years ago

Is it realistic to expect the US to have the capability to block its northern borders? I can't imagine Russia siding with the US in the event of a serious conflict, and even ignoring Kazakhstan and Mongolia (which the US will likely find hard to influence), China and Russia have many miles of shared borders. Russia's oil production is in the same order of magnitude as Saudi Arabia and the US and to my understanding is artificially limited to play nice with OPEC.

I think the more interesting scenario is tech embargoes taking away the "building blocks" (e.g. chips) and stalling their tech production. But China is well aware of their deficiency in this area and they've been pushing hard towards what they call "self-reliance" [1].

As for food, I can't imagine the conflict escalating to such a level of hostility and disregard for human life that the world allows the US to blockade China into starvation.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-31/bloomb...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012888/ch...

ardit335• 5 years ago

It is only one rail line and some roads... it takes a couple of B2s to destroy the link. The US doesn't have to hit china itself (to avoid any nuclear escalation). It will hit the silk road in the secondary countries where it passes (eg. Kazakhstan). Siberia is huge and the Russian - China link is very inefficient.

Also, China is in bad terms with almost every other neighbor it has (territory disputes with almost every one).. and they will be glad to see it humbled a notch or two and will not help.

roenxi2• 5 years ago

Predicting that China can control Taiwan if it wants to is a pretty easy one, as predictions go. Predicting that the US can easily dominate China is more in the vein of the ignorance at the start of WWI [0].

The world will not unite against China in the delusional understanding that the US is good and China is bad. China will not roll over and get flattened like an Afghanistan or an Iraq. Nobody knows what will happen, but it will probably be horrific.

[0] https://www.uniassignment.com/essay-samples/history/attitude...

Ekaros• 5 years ago

Would USA even blockade China? At this point it really would be mutual destruction. The retail market in USA would suffer, bringing most of the rest likely down with it...

dnautics4• 5 years ago

Not really. The us's #1 trading partner is currently mexico, as of 2020. Why do you think all the techies are moving to Texas y aprendiendo español quien es el nuevo mandarín

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts...

The us also is generally less dependent on foreign trade than most other countries. Huge domestic market.

outsomnia2• 5 years ago

I thought the interesting point is not that the mainland can overwhelm a small island off its coast, but the likelihood of a messy escalation and stalemate. The logic that defending the island requires taking out integrated air defense radars on the mainland and the implications of that seem pretty sound.

During the Korean war the larger mainland forces took everything except Busan, a port on the south-eastern side, but the US still rolled it back and today we have South Korea. On the ground, the reality of even a few weeks of that kind of urban all-out war are truly horrifying.

The US and Taiwan had an explicit security guarantee treaty for 25 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense_T...

...with the rise of China that mutated into the TRA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

which is more ambiguous, its basic idea is maintain the status quo. On the ground, forces are stationed in Okinawa to deter mainland aggression.

In recent years the likelihood the US would in fact jump in to defend Taiwan seems to have increased, eg, reliance of US tech industry on TSMC, and Trump-era anti-China rhetoric. At the same time Hong Kong shows the mainland tolerance of democracy has dwindled.

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

Finally someone mentions TSMC, which is probably the most important thing for US, and TSMC is "moving" to US.

outsomnia2• 5 years ago

TSMC is important, but it is opening a single site with 2% of its existing, mainly Taiwan-based capacity in the US. TSMC total capacity in 2019 was 12 million 12-inch wafer starts

https://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/manufacturing/...

The new fab in Austin only has capacity for 240K (presumably 12 inch) wafers/yr, or 2% of TSMC total capacity.

est7• 5 years ago

Google 围点打援 for more goodies.

King-Aaron2• 5 years ago

Risky google of the day

est7• 5 years ago

Why? It's a more advanced & popular "quarantine" strategy, utilized by CCP's Red Army during Chinese Civil War.

Apocryphon16• 5 years ago

The PRC considers Taiwan part of its patrimony, yes. But both the PRC and ROC are highly developed nations integrated into the global economy. When was the last time such advanced states went to open war with each other? Such a conflict would be unprecedented since the end of World War II. And why would a regime as cautious and calculating as the CPC wish to upset the lucrative status quo with something as destabilizing as open war?

hannofcart• 5 years ago

Your argument makes sense when you look at the scenario from the perspective of what countries would do when their leadership acts rationally. That their leadership would act rationally is likely (though not assured) when dealing with democracies.

All bets are off when you're dealing with an autocratic junta. Even worse when dealing with a one man dictatorship with enormous concentration of power in the hands of that person.

That's likely why China before Xi (but post Mao) was less likely to attack Taiwan, and why China post Xi is an entirely different animal.

Apocryphon16• 5 years ago

That their leadership would act rationally is likely (though not assured) when dealing with democracies.

It would appear the past two decades have really worn at the optimistic sheen of democratic systems. Whether populist anger generating suboptimal decisions or cabals of self-appointed technocrats and bureaucrats using democracy's own procedural motions against itself, they haven't really revealed themselves to be much more rational.

All bets are off when you're dealing with a dictatorship with enormous concentration of power in the hands of one person.

I'm not convinced that the Chinese Politburo is really comparable to states such as North Korea. For all of their authoritarianism, the government has gotten modern China into a prosperous state. An irrational state can't do that. Not to mention, if one was to argue that China's rise was because of other countries outsourcing production to them, well- those nations are often democracies.

That's likely why China before Xi was less likely to attack Taiwan, and why China post Xi is an entirely different animal.

Xi is definitely more aggressive than his predecessors and is playing up jingoism. But it remains to be seen if it this isn't just a whole lot of saber-rattling and rhetorical brinksmanship. To prepare for war is one thing, to be ready to actually wage it is quite something else.

solveit• 5 years ago

Perhaps the Falklands war? Argentina circa 1982 was stagnating but still about the 20th largest economy in the world. Taiwan is also sitting at about 20 right now.

Of course, a PRC/ROC war is likely to be much much more serious than the relatively minor conflict that was the Falklands war.

Apocryphon16• 5 years ago

I'd think that Argentina of the junta wasn't quite as important economically as Taiwan is now, but I'd have to research to compare that. I would also imagine Taiwan's HDI is quite higher to Argentina's was back then. Another factor of note is that the junta was going through a shaky transitional period while Taiwan's democracy is fairly stable. Not to mention that while mostly diplomatically unrecognized, democratic Taiwan probably isn't a pariah in the same way a military autocracy like Argentina was.

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

In this scenario, the better analogy would be US - UK, China - Argentina, Taiwan - Falklands, think again with that in mind.

wyuenho• 5 years ago

This, is why Taiwan needs offensive weaponry that can reach a few 1000kms deep into China, instead of their current arsenal of "indigenous" jet fighters using GE engines that don't even have enough range to reach the shore, and short range anti-ship missiles and obsolete SAMs and missile defence. Taiwan needs ballistic missiles and bombers, and perhaps, nukes.

fermienrico4• 5 years ago

Taiwan with nukes would lead to long term peace. South Korea used to house US nuclear arms until 1992 and they're re-considering it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korea_and_weapons_of_mas...

hollerith5• 5 years ago

Japan, Germany, South Korea, Sweden, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan all could've had their own nuclear arsenals by now. The reason they do not is that the US undertook to protect them.

Do you wish all those countries had nuclear arsenals? If so, I recommend that you read _Command and Control_ by Strasser: it is difficult the make sure the whatever nuclear policy is chosen by a government is actually followed.

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

Ask UNSC if they would allow that.

_cs2017_2• 5 years ago

It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan. Unless the Taiwanese leadership decides to commit suicide by a cop and declares full independence, I suspect the Chinese public would be very uncomfortable with civilian deaths in Taiwan.

Nationalistic fervor is strong, but the mainland Chinese consider the Taiwanese to be Chinese as well. So bombing Taiwanese targets would feel not very different from bombing Hunan or Sichuan province.

A blockade, on the other hand, would be far more acceptable domestically. And I fear that means a greater likelihood of the US involvement: the US public (and therefore the administration) may not have the stomach to defend Taiwan from an invasion, but they might feel they cannot stand by when American cargo ships are prevented from moving freely in the international waters.

On a side note, it's hard to believe that in the 21 century, when people are on the verge of manned flights to Mars, we still have a truckload of terrorial disputes all over the world (Taiwan and the rest of the mess in the South China Sea, the Northern Territories of Japan, Senkaku islands, the Chinese / Indian border, the Middle East, Crimea, etc.).

r00fus• 5 years ago

Why is it hard to believe? That’s human nature. We fight over territory just like most other mammals.

That we could rise above our very programming is exceptional (like the Mars lander), not the norm.

geoalchimista• 5 years ago

It's a bit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in China supporting a hot war with Taiwan.

Have you talked to any Chinese people who are not from Shanghai/Beijing and are not educated in an American university?

rtpg2• 5 years ago

Have you? Most people aren't like "yeah let's go slaughter a bunch of people" in general. It's basically the null hypothesis!

And the "common person" understands who will be on the frontlines in any war, and who will be completely out of danger.

SirHound2• 5 years ago

You think Mars will be any different once a second country lands people there? It’s going to be a nightmare.

BLKNSLVR2• 5 years ago

Having read Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy and watched the Mars docudrama on Netflix, I'm afraid you're probably right.

Second country may be equivalent to second 'corporation'.

I'm not sure what the ISS model is, but at least that has been working well for a while.

nsonha7• 5 years ago

it's abit hard to imagine the domestic opinion in America...

also is it hard to imagine a government doing something against its people's will?

dirtyid6• 5 years ago

PRC-ROC is unfinished civil war with a literal countdown timer (2049). Reality is reunification with Taiwan is the ultimate political get-out-jail-free card for any Chinese leadership. It doesn't matter if PRC is democratic or authoritarian, taking Taiwan will supersede and overshadow any large domestic issue that could undermine legitimacy. And PRC will face many in the coming years. If she successfully negotiates them, then missing the 2049 deadline itself will be overwhelming issue determining legitimacy. PRC moving on Taiwan is inevitable, even the mildest forceful reunion option (quarantine) could lead to total-war because that's just how escalation spirals.

Rule352• 5 years ago

This is the USA's Poland.

wbsun• 5 years ago

Why 2049 is a deadline? Mind elaborating? I don't think there is any agreement on when a reunion must happen.

_cs2017_2• 5 years ago

This type of "deadline" to invade Taiwan has been "discovered" repeatedly. For example, look at this article from 2017/10/05 in https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3268316:

"According to a book published on Tuesday titled "The Chinese Invasion Threat" by Project 2049 think tank fellow Ian Easton, Beijing has finalized a secret plan to invade Taiwan by 2020, according to classified documents from the Chinese military obtained by the author, reported the Washington Free Beacon."

Much as I love Taiwan, let's not pretend this is anything other than propaganda. Only goes to show that bullshit can be produced by pro-Taiwan analysts just as well as by pro-Beijing analysts.

Rule352• 5 years ago

Unless the Taiwanese leadership decides to commit suicide by a cop and declares full independence

Suicide by cop is pretending to draw a weapon.

Your example is closer to, in America, refusing to be breathalyzed and demanding to be tested at the station.

dirtyid6• 5 years ago

This analysis aligns with some of my thinking on the subject, and it's the first time I've read quarantine seriously discussed let alone presented to congress. I've mused about quarantine policy before since it's a historic parallel of ROC closure policy (关闭政策) where ROC navy declared "closure" of ALL Chinese ports and attempted to control PRC shipping between 1949 and 1979. The policy was largely ineffective, suspended after 30 years and not abolished until early 90s. Along with ROC based U2 Black Cat squadron that conducted surveillance over mainland from 60s-70s, there is historic precedence for PRC to rationalize reciprocating similar strategies under a quarantine framework. I would not be surprised salami slicing will eventually encroach past median line as force balance shifts more towards PRC favour, PLAF will aim conduct unfettered flight over Taiwanese proper, PAP coast guard start interdicting shipping into Taiwan, which will setup pieces for escalation into blockade when timing dictates. History rhymes. Potentially prefaced via staged Tonkin style provocation that attributes Taiwan as aggressor, providing everyone opportunity to sit out. Really the fixation with DDAY style invasion needs to die, modernized PLA forces of 2035 has different capabilities as 2000, and greyscale warfare is something China has consistently utilized since reforms.

hollerith5• 5 years ago

Has China ever interdicted a ship going to or from Taiwan?

3 minutes with a search engine didn't yield an example.

dirtyid6• 5 years ago

PRC hasn't blockaded Taiwan due to lack of capability until even 2010s. Taiwan military was credible threat against mainland due US weapons sales in 90s and PLA being broken legacy forces. Emphasis was on peaceful reunion as a matter of impotence and policy until "peaceful" was dropped last year. PLA has modernized sufficiently and developed enough industrial capacity that Taiwan can't deter PRC conventionally could going forward, so I expect increasing pressure.

nitwit005• 5 years ago

If you can gain air superiority of an island nation, and want to force them to surrender through economic consequences, why bother with a blockade? Just blow up enough of the electrical infrastructure to keep the power off for a good long while. You'll produce similar economic damage without having to hang around.

est7• 5 years ago

Just blow up enough of the electrical infrastructure to keep the power off for a good long while

See: https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=2766

sterlind• 5 years ago

Wow. TSMC currently consumes 5% of all power in Taiwan, and is predicted to consume up to 10% in the future, apparently because of EUV. Losing that would be catastrophic for the West, but doesn't China use TSMC chips too? Does the mainland even have a fab that could compete?

lettergram• 5 years ago

I think this fails to consider what happens when the US blocks China.

- Much of the wealth of Chinas elites are inside the US

- Chinas military needs oil

- Chinas citizens food

- Chinas industry needs markets for goods

No, China wouldn’t survive an invasion of Taiwan. The US wouldn’t need to fire a shot.

dnautics4• 5 years ago

This is insane. The CCP cannot afford a victory over taiwan. Oil exports to china cease, during the invasion, if no other reason that no one wants their tanker to blow up en route (there are safer and more lucrative buyers) and then what? 70% of chinese energy is imported. The country comes to a stop.

throwaway210222• 5 years ago

(there are safer and more lucrative buyers)

Only if the the Chinese navy doesn't sink those.

est7• 5 years ago

70% of chinese energy is imported.

And 90% of that imported energy is used for export manufacturing.

coldtea2• 5 years ago

Regardless of whether China or Taiwan are right, etc, why does a country in the other side of the Pacific should have any say, much less "a war over", a dispute between two neighbor countries which belong to the same ethnicity and historical past, and it's pretty much a civil war?

Should China or some similar power of the time have meddled in the US civil war? Or maybe the War for Independence?

Apocryphon16• 5 years ago

You could say the exact same thing about South Korea/North Korea, or Ukraine/Russia.

The Cold War dies hard.

emayljames3• 5 years ago

That doesn't make it any better, not one single bit.

pixel_tracing• 5 years ago

This is easy to answer, Taiwan exports many resources to the US. TSMC is just one company in Taiwan that not only the US but most other countries in the world depend on. It generates the vast majority of the silicon powering our machines and is sovereign neutral meaning not allied and special treatment to a specific country.

Don’t think the US will sit back quietly while China fucks up their economy

baby• 5 years ago

Alliances.

I personally hope we help our friends in Taiwan.

yokaze• 5 years ago

Should China or some similar power of the time have meddled in the US civil war? Or maybe the War for Independence?

You mean like France, Netherlands and Spain supported the insurgents against the UK?

_wt8k3• 5 years ago

Well, France meddled in the American Revolutionary War to hurt Britain. That's just the reality of what rival states do.

coldtea2• 5 years ago

I know that, it was a rhetorical question to shed the illusion of some "hollier than thou" "intervention for good".

jobigoud• 5 years ago

Should China or some similar power of the time have meddled in the US civil war? Or maybe the War for Independence?

France, a country from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, played a decisive role in the War of independence.

darawk• 5 years ago

Because Taiwan would like help, and it's in our interest to give it. It's not like the US is intervening against the wishes of Taiwan.

nsonha7• 5 years ago

the cause of the would-be war is that the two sides could not agree whether or not they are the same country. By calling it a "civil war" you just dismissed the whole point of it.

also ethnicity has nothing to do with sovereign, nor that it exists a single "China" ethnicity, for Taiwanese people (who themselves are not a single ethnicity) to be lumped into. China just like all countries in the world, has many ethnicities.

The simple answer for your question is, because one side asked, and this kind of intervention has countless precedence in geopolitics. I reckon China probably has asked for external help several times in its history.

tim333• 5 years ago

There's kind of a general principle of the world's human rights respecting democracies standing up to some local dictatorship trying to invade and pick off one of them. See also Israel, Finland, the Falklands etc.

rmk3• 5 years ago

The answer is simple: The US is the Global Hegemon of our times, and furthermore, it is a formal guarantor of Taiwan's security (this is similar in many ways to its allies in NATO). Economically, Taiwan and the US have deep ties: it would make sense for the US to come to Taiwan's aid for this reason alone. Whether the ally is across the Pacific or elsewhere scarcely matters to the US, because it has power projection capability that spans the entire planet. That is doubly so when you consider that it is allied with almost all the major developed countries and almost every single one of China's neighbors (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and to a lesser extent Vietnam and India).

If China were the hegemon in the 1800s, then of course it would have intervened in the Civil War. Take France, which was a World Power (and traditional rival of Great Britain) during the War for Independence. It did provide support to the US, and was their primary ally.

walrus012• 5 years ago

If people want to know how/why the USA has a huge embassy in Taipei that is not actually called an Embassy, and military/defense-industrial supplies to Taiwan:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

Here's the website of the "totally not an Embassy": https://www.ait.org.tw/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

US also sold military supplies to Argentina for Falklands.

SunlightEdge• 5 years ago

Open question, but is it possible that China will become less nationalistic in the next few decades? What with globalization and all. The result of this being a move towards giving up on their claims to Taiwan.

Certainly Europe has in many ways become less nationalistic with globalization. The idea of war in Western Europe now seems absurd. e.g. imagine the reaction to a UK politician wanting to invade Ireland again to reclaim territory.

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

Possible? or are you in a different parallel universe? do you see a war currently happening between mainland China and Taiwan?

That's the actual reality my friend.

nsonha7• 5 years ago

can I ask a stupid question: does China really want to invade Taiwan? The Mao Zedong's China did, sure. However, for the current China, it might be better to "invade" Taiwan through cultural and economic means.

As for why the tension, Taiwan is equally guilty for the previous regime (the KMT) tying their identity to a(nother idea of) unified China. Given all the propaganda built up all that time, China could not backtrack now even if they wanted.

MagnumOpus• 5 years ago

Only a credible threat of invasion can prevent Taiwan formally separating and renouncing the one-China policy, making a mockery of half a century of CCP propaganda.

And a credible threat of invasion needs credible plans, credible military power and credible preparation for an invasion, not to speak of propaganda to "otherise" the opponent.

Apocryphon16• 5 years ago

Only a credible threat of invasion can prevent Taiwan formally separating and renouncing the one-China policy, making a mockery of half a century of CCP propaganda.

I mean, is that actually true once Chinese economic ties with Taiwan are so entrenched that the country finds most of its economy is beholden to China? At that point would claimed independence really matter? Not to mention, given that the PRC is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, I'm not sure if international recognition of an independent Taiwan would really go that far. Kosovo is still unrecognized by the U.N. due to Russia's intransigence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_K...

Havoc• 5 years ago

Two years without TSMC. Now that would be a cup shortage of note

hollerith5• 5 years ago

Current chip shortage is not caused by not being able to build fab buildings fast enough: it is caused by not being able to buy enough of the lithography machines to put in the buildings. (The machines take years to build.) Where are these litho machines made? Europe, Japan and the US. If mainland China makes any at all, they are decades behind the state of the art.

Point is that China's supply of chips is much more precarious than the US's because all the US has to do at the start of any hostilities with China is to make it clear to the countries that export these litho machines that the US will not tolerate any exports of the machines to China.

Koiwai21• 5 years ago

For anyone waiting for US to exercise justice on this matter, might want to read that article about Secretary Clinton considering selling Taiwan to China.

US-China War over Taiwan: All Measures Short of a Cross Straits Invasion

Related Stories