Masks really work to reduce the spread of Covid-19

https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1242894378441506816

by nopinsight • 6 years ago

77 63 6 years ago

modzu• 6 years ago

the twitter meta analysis

If you ever get to the end of your tweet character limit and still need to continue, that's an indicator that its time to delete your tweet and post it on a real blogging service and then you can post the link back to twitter if you want.

buzzerbetrayed• 6 years ago

While you’re obviously entitled to your opinion, many, many people disagree with you.

ehnto• 6 years ago

Twitter's value proposition is it's community now by far, not the character limit gimmick. Just allow expanded posts as a UI option, so that it still feels like "Normal Twitter" most of the time and if users want to post a blog length tweet, allow that in a sane, readable way. Have people need to expand it, so it doesn't break the existing UI.

nopinsight• 6 years ago

Taiwan rapidly built up factories to make 10 million masks a day for its citizens (population: <24 million) as part of its plan.

Masks for everyone in public is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Check out Taiwan's Covid-19 Response Plan published in JAMA for details:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689?gu...

What is the cost of an automated mask making machine? < $100,000/set (based on Alibaba data). Each set can make ~100 pieces/min * 60 min * 17 hours > 100,000 / day.

To make a mask daily for everyone in the US would take 3,300 such machines * $0.1 million = $330 million.

Along with all other costs, total capital investment is likely less than a few billion dollars. Costs of capital, materials, operations, and distribution all together would be negligible relative to savings in healthcare, not to mention less misery all around.

tehlike• 6 years ago

Or the economic impact which is at the order of trillions based on stimulus package.

MikeAmelung• 6 years ago

If we don't take some sort of action to bring essential manufacturing, including pharmaceuticals, back to the US after this, I might entirely lose my mind.

It shouldn't matter where you fall on the political spectrum, or if it's going to cost too much for the labor, or the fact that the whole thing has to be powered by reverse carbon collection or whatever the hell, it just HAS to be done.

scruple2• 6 years ago

And we should also be losing our minds if our government doesn't go back to peacetime national stockpiling.

dilyevsky• 6 years ago

They just agreed to pour 2T into economy and you’re counting some measly hundreds of millions =)

xiphias2• 6 years ago

6T and counting. I'm angry because of the same thing. It would be much easier to stop the virus from spreading if the messaging wasn't that full of lies.

mikkelam• 6 years ago

You can easily reuse an n95 mask, someone did a study that 15 minutes in a rice cooker or 30 minutes in an oven at 70 C should make it reusable

Here's the study https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fstanfordmedicine...

Can't find anything about the rice cooker though.

remarkEon5• 6 years ago

This whole argument is frustrating and annoying to me. I know that we're obsessed with "data" and "increase the sample size" on this website, but those things take a lot of time. And, given that my parents are old and have at least one factor that make them "high risk", I've started to reevaluate my priors on constantly insisting on more and more data before I make a decision.

Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong ... they all wear masks to some extent, normally in non-pandemic periods. They now do it at scale. They're at the bottom of the barrel in cases today (Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying). So, perhaps we should just start wearing masks. It costs nothing, assuming it's possible to get them, though for whatever reason our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN - exclaimed that wearing a mask "does nothing". And one of the results of everyone telling us back in January and February that "masks do nothing" is that we're now 2 months behind procuring a cheap item that could actually do a lot of good. What a damn shame.

yitchelle• 6 years ago

I think that wearing a mask is good but it is not the silver bullet. Actually any form of physical barrier to stop the transmission will help, including social distancing (God! I hate that phrase but everyone knows what that means).

It is like software development, preventing the cause is much less impacting to our lives than debugging the cause.

bibabaloo• 6 years ago

our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN - exclaimed that wearing a mask "does nothing".

I'm fairly convinced that the messaging behind the "masks don't do anything" rhetoric is to prevent a shortage to people who need them. Yeah, everyone wearing masks would probably effectively slow the virus but if there's known supply chain issues and everyone stocking up would cause availability issues for doctors & nurses, then we have to take the lesser evil.

remarkEon5• 6 years ago

Yeah, but if everyone started wearing masks back in early February in New York City there wouldn't be overloaded hospitals in Queens today on March 25th, now would there.

mike_d• 6 years ago

The split of "they don't do anything" and "hospitals need them" made no sense to Americans so they ignored both messages.

FeepingCreature• 6 years ago

Yeah but the effect is a diminished trust in experts. Which is why noble lies are toxic. Like, nobody who said that masks can't help has grounds to complain about accusations of "fake news" ever again.

lukasm4• 6 years ago

Pros: Reduce the droplets in the air

May reduce panic/stress?

Cons

You need to touch your face more often which increases the risk

Mask becomes humid after a while which is great eniviroment for the virus.

False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur

Not enough masks for hospitals

Its very likely they benefits outweigh the costs

jshevek4• 6 years ago

I wear a mask and it doesn't increase my face touching. In fact, it reduces my face touching because it serves as a perpetual reminder of the situation.

It may also signal to other people to keep their distance from me.

watwut3• 6 years ago

My mask makes me less likely to touch face.

False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur

I dont see people with masks being closer to each other then people without masks.

remarkEon5• 6 years ago

Pros: all true

Cons: Every single one of these is false, especially the face touching part.

Folks, this is what I'm talking about so let's do this by the numbers.

You need to touch your face more often which increases the risk

You touch your face less (read: zero) when in environments in which you're wearing the mask. And if you're wearing it in public places that's enormously important, since that is where you will get the virus.

Mask becomes humid after a while which is great eniviroment for the virus.

The micro-environment of "your mouth and nose" is not going to breed any more virus than the environment around you that wants to inject the virus into your mouth and nose.

False sense of security - people engaging in risky behavoiur

[citation needed]

Not enough masks for hospitals

And if we'd stopped lying about masks being effective back in early February perhaps we'd have enough of them by now. So let's stop lying about it now to make sure we have enough by May.

ex3ndr• 6 years ago

I don't really understand why unless they're lying

yep, hospitals are packed completely already.

watwut3• 6 years ago

our smartest people - both in the actual elite and here on HN

We should be open to the possibility that these are not our smartest people. Plus we should admit that there are smarter people outside of our bubble.

lonelappde3• 6 years ago

Of course Russian government is lying. The Russians President has spent his whole adult life oppressing his own country and just made himself dictator for life.

andrenth• 6 years ago

Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying

Closed borders with China since January. Same as Mongolia.

rasz• 6 years ago

Russia is too and I don't really understand why unless they're lying

There is no coronavirus in Russia, just a bad spell of mass Pneumonia. In other news Putin just announced nationwide full pay week of 'holidays' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/putin-refuses-im... nothing to see here folks, definitely no emergency

jshevek4• 6 years ago

I'm not a huge fan of HN links to tweet threads, but if they are going to happen then here is a far more readable format of the above tweet thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1242894378441506816.html

irrational• 6 years ago

Except now there is a serious social stigma against wearing masks. You are seen as taking what rightfully belongs to the hospitals and using it for your own selfish ends.

skybrian• 6 years ago

That sounds like a good reason to wear an obviously homemade mask?

abdullahkhalids• 6 years ago

Ask celebrities to wear homemade masks

jeffdavis• 6 years ago

Does it really matter if it's N95 or would a bandana work? It would make it harder for a cough to spread from you, for sure. And it would remind you not to touch your face and keep droplets away from your nose.

Maybe the message should be: healthcare workers get the real masks, but the public still needs a covering (bandana or whatever)?

stickfigure• 6 years ago

Scott Alexander of Slate Star Codex just recently posted a review of evidence on the efficacy of masks, in his usual "I just want to follow the evidence as honestly as possible" kind of way:

"Face Masks: Much More Than You Wanted To Know"

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-t...

wonnage• 6 years ago

Like many others, I started off skeptical about masks due to public health messaging and all the general caveats about how hard it is to wear a respirator correctly. That’s no longer the case.

Wearing a mask of any sort reduces the risk of infection. That’s why hospitals need PPE and are even resorting to using lower-grade protection (e.g surgical masks instead of n95) due to lack of supplies. CDC is even recommending scarves as a last resort. They’re also reusing masks and wearing them for longer than they should. These are all signs that _any_ mask can provide some benefit.

Furthermore, it’s been well cited that wearing masks does more to protect others from the wearer than vice versa. Given that its possible to be an asymptomatic carrier, you should wear a mask to avoid spreading the virus unknowingly.

Obviously, full PPE should go to healthcare and other critical needs right now due to shortage. That doesn’t mean the rest of us shouldn’t wear masks, just that we shouldn’t selfishly hoard a bunch of n95s. I’ll bet lots of Californians have leftover masks from the wildfires that they could use.

My take is that reserving proper PPE for health workers until the crisis peaks is critical. But westerners don’t have a mask-wearing culture like Asian countries, and are more likely to have an all or nothing approach to wearing one (n95 or bust!). So the safest public health messaging is to discourage all mask wearing. Not sure that’s worked.

noizejoy• 6 years ago

I’ve never stopped wondering if “masks don’t help” messages were given to the public because there aren’t enough masks for the health care workers (and others in helping jobs). I really hope not, because if that turns out to be deliberately misleading messaging, the short term benefit may very well be outweighed by serious long term trust deterioration in public officials, beyond what’s already there.

fleetingmoments• 6 years ago

Not to go full on conspiracy theory here but a contributing factor could be that those in charge don't want wearing a mask in public to become a norm because it would interfere with facial recognition and tracking.

Zanni• 6 years ago

My sister, a practicing MD, says that cloth masks are worse than nothing because they act as disease reservoirs. N95 masks are single-use. People aren't throwing their homemade masks after every trip outdoors, so any contamination their masks "stopped" is just waiting for the next use to infect the wearer. (She cited a study she'd read, which I can't find, but this Wirecutter article [1] makes a similar argument in the first answer).

That said, that doesn't mean that masks aren't helping in Czechia--they're a potent reminder to everyone to keep their distance, and that their friends and neighbors have bought into the seriousness of the threat. That alone is worth something.

1. https://thewirecutter.com/blog/your-coronavirus-questions-an...

jfnixon• 6 years ago

I think the wrong model is the problem. Surgical masks provide small protection to you, but significant protection to others. It isn't for you, it is for everyone else. Think of a mask as portable social distancing.

By catching droplets from (asymptomatic) infected wearers, it reduces the virus on surfaces and in the air. That's the benefit.

lukasm4• 6 years ago

What if I had 5 regular surgical masks and after the usage Id press iron on it an then quarantine it for 72h?

watwut3• 6 years ago

People aren't throwing their homemade masks after every trip outdoors, so any contamination their masks "stopped" is just waiting for the next use to infect the wearer.

The general recommendation is to put them into boiling water after each use for 30 minutes.

Those who have only scarf probably dont do this, but they are still less likely to infect others if they are asymptomatic carriers.

jshevek4• 6 years ago

so any contamination their masks "stopped" is just waiting for the next use to infect the wearer

It's true the virus may linger and infect later, but it might also be destroyed in the meantime. The odds depend on various factors, such as exposure to sunlight, antiviral chemicals, or high temperatures.

Unknown_Unknown• 6 years ago

N95 masks are single-use

No they are not [1].

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22680799

mamurphy• 6 years ago

The first four comments when I got here were disparaging this tweet chain and saying masks don't work. I did a bit of research and found multiple articles claiming masks DO work.

These sources acknowledge that masks are a contentious point and that some experts disagree with the part of the articles I am quoting below. Even the CDC recommends against members of the public using respirators without specific risk factors (having Covid, or treating someone with Covid). The CDC wants to prevent hoarding, as they should.

But many sources claim that a homemade mask from a spare vacuum bag or dish rag makes you a bit safer (2-5x safer than nothing), and I'm going to make one for myself and use it when going out. From the overall body of evidence, I believe that masks are substantially better than nothing, and a social norm of everyone wearing masks would lower Covid transmission. If you disagree provide sources and reasons.

Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone (although others have found lower levels of effectiveness).[0]
The public doesn't need to wear heavy-duty respirators, but it's a smart idea to don a face mask or wrap a clean scarf around your nose and mouth if you're going into a crowded place during the COVID-19 outbreak, an infectious disease doctor told Live Science.[1]

Even the CDC agrees that "The role of facemasks is for patient source control, to prevent contamination of the surrounding area when a person coughs or sneezes. Patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 should wear a facemask until they are isolated in a hospital or at home. The patient does not need to wear a facemask while isolated." [2]

Other articles agree that sick people wearing face masks helps prevent them spreading to others, e.g., [3]

I have read sources that Covid19 can be transmitted even if you have no symptoms. So if everyone wears face masks, then everyone who is infected with no symptoms will have a reduced chance of transmitting the virus. Unlike social distancing and lockdowns, masks have almost no downside. Why are we not heavily promoting masks for anyone going out of the home!?

HN generally loves the NYTimes, great article: [4]. Homemade masks aren't perfect, but the article explains that "of course masks work — maybe not perfectly and not all to the same degree, but they provide some protection. Their use has always been advised as part of the standard response to being around infected people, especially for people who may be vulnerable."

I encourage everyone reading this to consider making a mask out of an item you already own and wearing it when leaving the house.

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/can-a-face-mas...

[1]https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-do-face-masks-work.h...

[2]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/respirator-use...

[3]https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/covid-19-for-most-mask...

[4]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-...

acje• 6 years ago

I have heard from nurse with specialization in contamination that wearing masks are worse than nothing because we would handle them wrong. That is touching the mask to speak, multiple use and the like. They don’t do that in hospitals. You put it on and throw it away only touching the strings. Like it was contaminated, because it is, if it worked..

I do however see one way masks would work. They act as a constant visual reminder to keep distance and not touching stuff. That works.

zenexer• 6 years ago

I’ve been seeing a lot of social media posts from friends and family who are wearing masks incorrectly or making their own masks. That might not be a huge problem on its own, but it seems to give them an excuse to risk compensate. And that’s a huge problem.

If you plop on an N95 mask, it’s not going to work as intended. Sure, it might block some stuff and discourage you from touching your face, but it’s certainly not going to make you invincible. Even when fitted correctly, it’s still letting stuff through. If you have to choose between staying home vs. gathering in a group while wearing a mask, one is obviously lower risk than the other.

N95 masks are uncomfortable. When used correctly, you feel like you’re breathing hot, humid air that you just exhaled. They clamp down pretty tightly on your nose.

People don’t like this, so they adjust the mask until it’s comfortable (or just don’t fit it in the first place)—and in this case, comfort = leak. Or they get a mask with an exhaust vent—which might protect the wearer reasonably well, but now everything they exhale exits the mask unfiltered. Or—and this is my favorite one—they put the mask on over sunglasses to keep it from sitting on the bridge of their nose, then wonder why their glasses fog up.

Or perhaps they have facial hair that they don’t want to shave. For the seal to work, the part making contact with your face needs to be clean-shaven.

And you can’t make your own N95 mask from scratch. They’re not simple cloth; that’s why they’re expensive and hard to produce.

Again, none of this would be terrible if people didn’t risk compensate. Wearing any mask—even incorrectly—is probably better than no mask, as long as you didn’t cut up a fiberglass HEPA filter in the process. Wearing a mask to get some groceries or pick up a prescription? Great! At the very least, it’ll keep you from touching your face. But wearing a mask so you can throw a party is a terrible idea.

I’m mostly targeting N95 masks here since they’re not as easy to use as surgical masks, but the same general rule applies to everything: masks are an extra tool in your arsenal; another layer of protection. They don’t make you invincible.

ykevinator• 6 years ago

So why didnt we just distribute masks?

notacoward• 6 years ago

Priorities. It's great to say everyone should use masks, they do help somewhat even if they're not perfect, but supply was too limited. It's getting better, but health-care professionals are still having to wear PPE too long or reuse it or go without. They're terrified, and not without reason; a lot of them have already been infected. We need to prioritize getting enough masks to them, then to other vulnerable people, and finally to the general populace.

Compare it to a different kind of mask in a different kind of war - the kind that one would use to protect against chemical-warfare agents. Or doses of antidote. Sure, everyone would be safer if they had these things, but if there are fewer of them than there are people then by what reasoning should they not go first to those on the front lines? It's a simple effect-maximization problem, with a solution that benefits even those who don't get the gear.

stunt• 6 years ago

It's not scalable even if it does help.

Not to mention the whole scams around it these days and ridiculous high price tags. I'm not surprised if all of these are coming from people that are making money out of it right now.

Yuioup• 6 years ago

For all you idiots who downvoted me:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-mas...

Masks really work to reduce the spread of Covid-19

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