New Advice On How to Survive Nuclear Attack

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/science/16terror.html?hp

by linhir • 16 years ago

38 30 16 years ago

jdp23• 16 years ago

Wow, it takes me back to when I was in elementary school and we practiced going to the fallout shelters in the basement ...

camiller2• 16 years ago

Apparently the first step is logging on to the NY Times. I didn't get any further than that.

lliiffee• 16 years ago

This link might work:

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_0_0_...

dailo10• 16 years ago

http://www.bugmenot.com/view/nytimes.com

camiller2• 16 years ago

You know that's not the point. If the NY Times wants me to read their articles they should not make it difficult.

sedachv• 16 years ago

Delete and disable cookies for nytimes.com

ScotterC• 16 years ago

Finally. Some sense has been added to radiation attacks. Getting inside a building or making sure there is any sort of barrier between you and ionizing radiation is the best thing you can do.

Seth_Kriticos2• 16 years ago

From the practical point of view:

wouldn't it be the easiest to make a TV entertainment series that would play in a nuclear apocalyptic scenario and include 60-ish style warnings of what to do when you see a mushroom?

Maybe something fallout style? This would not make anyone panic, as it's entertainment, but the message would go into subconsciousness to most.

wallflower• 16 years ago

> include 60-ish style warnings of what to do when you see a mushroom?

Before the mushroom too. Like when the tide goes out before a tsunami.

I remember watching the 'Day After' a long time ago and in one scene is everyone on a highway - and all of their cars suddenly die/stall. I assume this is EMP blast related?

Seth_Kriticos2• 16 years ago

Read the article, do some blast physics Googling (especially for kinetic and EMP cones). If you are in EMP range (which applies to H-Bombs and N-Bombs mostly, the later you're very unlikely to see in a terrorist attack, just too damn difficult to build), then you are probably screwed anyway.

In the case you survive that, don't leave the car.. and pray!

narag• 16 years ago

It was EMP related. IIRC, it was explained previously in the film and I believe that there was some special effect to suggest an explosion had taken place in the stratosphere.

By the way, Jason Robard's character did one educational thing: bending (I hope that's the right word) as much as he can behind the dashboard.

Also the movie featured prominently a white noodle-like dust rain that had that charming effect of making people bald.

There was another film with William Hart (can anybody remember the title?) about a post-apocalyptic world where most electronics are fried due to EMP.

drblast• 16 years ago

Jericho was a fantastic TV series about this very thing. It only lasted a season and a half, however.

It wasn't completely realistic, but most of the shows were about things the survivors had to do afterward to deal with contamination, breakdown of government, etc.

arethuza• 16 years ago

From the BBC:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threads

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_Game

Threads is probably the bleakest thing ever shown on TV - all the more so when you realize that the attack on the UK used as the basis for the program was actually fairly optimistic:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_Leg

bhavin2• 16 years ago

I can't get to the article, asks me to login!

oiuytrfiuytre• 16 years ago

Then you aren't on the list of chosen ones.

bhavin2• 16 years ago

yeah, I understand what's going on.

mike-cardwell• 16 years ago

It's totally retarded that people post links here to closed off nytimes articles. There should be some sort of policy to prevent such links.

Anyway, you can get around the nytimes restrictions simply by googling for the article and clicking through. It must be based on referers. Eg, go here and then click the top link:

https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&biw=1280&b...

ergo983• 16 years ago

The more survivable a nuclear war is perceived to be, the more likely nuclear war becomes.

jerf2• 16 years ago

True with rational actors. Massive nation states in the 20th century tended towards a certain degree of rationality by their ponderous nature. Cold war dogma will have to be updated in an era when you can not count on rationality from the actors possessing nuclear weapons, where small sets of individuals or potentially even individuals can control when and where they detonate.

Emphasizing the unsurvivability of a nuclear war encourages terrorists and marginal, rogue nation states and feeds into their ideation of "Once I have a nuke, they'll have to take me seriously!", a dynamic we can already see in the world. If you want to consider the effects of propaganda on world behavior (severed from the question of the truth of the propaganda), a good case can be made that now is the time to understate the dangers of nuclear weapons, that they are in the end just fairly large bombs, etc. Or perhaps just tell the truth, which is that they are dangerous and devastating, yes, but their effects have historically been overstated for the reasons discussed above.

Also, remember, part of what makes these nation states marginal is their lack of solid leadership and control. Iran right now thinks that a nuke is their meal ticket, but based on my reading of their own internal turmoil I would consider it a nontrivial possibility that if a nuke does show up there very significant internecine conflicts would begin and it's impossible to know who would actually end up with it; even if the current leadership retained control of the country the nuke may end up with somebody else. (Actually, the probability of the Iranian nuke actually ending up going off in Iran due to internal conflicts I would consider nontrivial, though certainly low odds relatively speaking.)

ergo983• 16 years ago

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were relatively tiny nuclear bombs. The results were absolute devastation of the sort that most nations rightly don't want to endure.

It isn't world-ending apocalyptic if North Korea launched its entire arsenal, but it would be incredibly devastating, which is exactly why the world treats it with such kid gloves. No one is overstating the concern regarding that, and a nuclear attack on Tokyo or, less likely, the West Coast of the US, would be horrifying.

Just to go back to Japan for a moment, note that in most world conflicts the decision to be aggressive or not is a very selfish one from the perspective of leadership: Leaders and peoples who feel that they and their family are impervious, or at least reasonably impervious, are far more likely to engage in and prolong conflict. To talk terrorism for a moment, as that has come up, NY city residents, as a general rule, tend to be against US oversea actions, whereas people in rural states -- where the risk of so-called "blowback" is dramatically reduced -- are far more emboldened.

The world faces incredible peril if the people with their finger on the button, so to speak, can do so with any comfort that they themselves will ultimately be okay.

cosmicray• 16 years ago

back in the 1960s, USDA drew up several sets of plans for ag facilities, and homes, that contain fallout shelters. LSUAgCenter has a few of them still posted...

Three Bedroom House with Emergency Shelter http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/our_offices/departments/Biolog...

Bunker-type Fallout Shelter (for beef cattle) http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/our_offices/departments/Biolog...

Stall Barn & Fallout Shelter http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/our_offices/departments/Biolog...

Fallout Shelter, Dairy Barn & Family Center http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/our_offices/departments/Biolog...

commieneko2• 16 years ago

"Duck and cover" has always been about as good advice as you can get.

Now I grew up in the '60s, within 30 miles of a cluster of Titan missile silos, practically surrounded by them (one of them blew up in the '80s! What fun that was!) So I knew that I could duck and cover till the cows came down and it wouldn't do any good. Because I'd be incandescent gas.

However, in my grade school and teenage nightmares it was Russian HBombs that I was obsessing about. Terrorist bombs are likely to be much smaller, closer to the size of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. Or smaller. So "assuming the position" is actually pretty good advice if you aren't killed instantly.

Staying put to avoid fallout is another issue. It depends on how close to the blast you are, and what the prevailing winds are doing. If I were in a good spot, say a building basement or the subway, I'd probably stick with it. In a car or a heavily damaged frame building, I dunno. The roads are likely to be impassable, so the best bet might be to head for a larger, building basement or other underground structure.

Assuming the current inhabitants are taking in stragglers...

The article is amazingly light on analysis and actual advice.

Well, another reason to keep those wind up radios around.

enjo• 16 years ago

The bombs are also much more likely to be ground detonated, which changes the equation a bit. Particularly it means a much reduced blast radius, but a higher amount of fallout. That's where this advice comes from. The government is trying to save lives by reducing as much exposure to fallout as they possibly can. In this case, retreating to your basement is definitely a good idea.

commieneko2• 16 years ago

The trouble with all advice like this is that it all really depends on conditions on the ground and where you are.

If you are upwind of the blast, and a reasonable distance away, it might make sense to make a run for areas not effected by the blast and out of the immediate fallout pattern. Especially if there is an effort to rescue and remove survivors from the area underway. During an actual nuclear war there is unlikely to be any organized efforts by the surviving government, but after a terrorist attack, there will almost certainly be. And hopefully they will be broadcasting on emergency frequencies, hence the wind up radio.

If you are in the fallout area, unless you are in a well stocked fallout shelter, you are probably screwed. Rescue efforts are likely to be minimal for weeks. Food and water will be a problem. Not to mention people who've been wandering around in the fallout wanting to share your hidy hole. It could be pretty grim.

jamescoops• 16 years ago

Children of the Dust is a great book about what happens after a Nuclear attack - conclusion - best thing is to die.

New Advice On How to Survive Nuclear Attack

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