Ethiopian Airlines plane crash: No survivors among 157 on board

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/ethiopian-airlines-flight-nairobi-crashes-deaths-reported-190310082515738.html

by niyikiza • 7 years ago

129 87 7 years ago

aljazeera.com

stackola2• 7 years ago

Second 737 Max to go down within the span of a few months.

I hope it's a coincidence, but that can't look good on Boeing.

E: Removed the word 'sure'

ulfw• 7 years ago

What makes you sure it is a coincidence?

stackola2• 7 years ago

I simply didn't want to jump to a conclusion, of course I can not be sure.

alistairSH3• 7 years ago

Is it a coincidence? Or, is it the same problem again? It appears (by the map in the link) that this one also crashed not long after take-off.

tialaramex• 7 years ago

Most incidents are going to happen at the two parts of the flight with least margin for error, take-off and landing. Even if something bad does go wrong in cruise, you are very far from the ground and glide well, you have lots of chances to fix it and not die.

So, sure, it might not be a coincidence, but "it happened near take off" is not surprising.

StreamBright3• 7 years ago

As I wrote earlier, I am not flying with 737 Max until this issue is going to be addressed.

leesalminen5• 7 years ago

I have 4 flights on 737MAX8 in the next couple weeks. Not feeling great about it.

tluyben2• 7 years ago

I have been avoiding Boeings for years for different reasons, seems I am automatically protected against these ones too.

aleku• 7 years ago

Just wondering, do passengers have an option to chose the model of plane they are flying? Not flown around much so just genuinely asking.

realfun• 7 years ago

Is there a reliable way to tell which airplane type before booking?

baybal22• 7 years ago

Looks like it crashed at a very steep angle.

Previous crash was involving a stall prevention software overwhelming the pilot input.

It was said to be added to new 737 due to it getting slightly tail heavier, and as a safeguard to pilot overreacting to it feeling unusual.

CydeWeys3• 7 years ago

And most crucially, this system can't be overridden using stick inputs whereas previous systems on the 737 were. And this change amongst others was kept relatively hidden by Boeing as a cost-savings measure, so that a 737 pilot can fly a new MAX without needing a new certification.

JshWright4• 7 years ago

Lion Air was a very steep, high energy impact as well

huffmsa3• 7 years ago

Giving the infrequency of airplane crashes, it probably isn't coincidence.

Very unlikely for a brand new plane to suffer issues with altitude shortly after take off.

Even less likely for it to happen twice in a span of a few months.

However, aviation history has more than a handful of samples where a new design suffered multiple crashes shortly after introduction and the cause was ultimately a design flaw.

huffmsa3• 7 years ago

Someone is probably pulling all of the flight logs for the 737 MAX right now and is going to see how many other non-fatal cases of altitude issues after take have been reported.

em3rgent0rdr2• 7 years ago

"Giving the infrequency of airplane crashes, it probably isn't coincidence."

I don't think that's how statistics work. You need larger sample sizes in order to make such a statement with high confidence.

kilroy123• 7 years ago

The frighting thing is, I was just looking at tickets for that exact flight leg (but the opposite direction), for an upcoming trip this summer.

I am not flying any leg on the 737 Max now.

LeifCarrotson• 7 years ago

I was going to try to tell you that airplanes are extremely safe, that two highly publicized crashes in 8 months should be compared to a far larger number of unsurprising, non-newsworthy auto crashes...but there are only 330 total 737 Max planes flying, and two have crashed. Those aren't the numbers I expected.

muzani• 7 years ago

My wife, a civil engineer, loves all kinds of new things, especially new car models.

Me, the software engineer, am extremely paranoid with newly released models of any kind. I'd rather wait a few years for it to be tested, never being an early adopter for it.

liberte82• 7 years ago

Waterfall vs. Agile

appleflaxen• 7 years ago

I predict that this is going to end up being a software error related to the angle of attack sensor (Boeing reported possible problems with the AOA on 11/7/2018)

basis: none whatsoever; just a guess.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/airlines-that-fly-the-boeing...

JshWright4• 7 years ago

The incident definitely bears a lot of similarities to the recent Lion Air crash that prompted that report (control issues shortly after takeoff, followed by a high energy impact).

unionemployee2• 7 years ago

In response to future 'trim system/AOA sensor' comments: Transport aircraft have a procedure to cut out a runaway/malfunctioning trim or stick pusher. Usually, this procedure is to press and hold the autopilot disconnect button on the yoke/stick or the trim switch and then, later, deactivate the system. The pressing of the autopilot disconnect button or trim switch is a 'memory item', meaning that it should be performed immediately, without a checklist, upon recognizing that there's a problem. Previously, this malfunction has been a rare occurrence, and so can be startling to pilots or not immediately recognized. I've seen pilots fail to apply the procedure and crash many times in the simulator, even after being told it was coming. It could be said that the pilots of the Lion Air aircraft and, potentially, this Ethiopian aircraft should have known the procedure and reacted properly, however, for Boeing to put them in this situation is, in my opinion, also quite hazardous. With so many hastily trained and low-competence airline pilots flying around, should we really rely on them to understand the technology and react properly?

tinus_hn2• 7 years ago

Or should we not have hastily trained low-competence pilots flying around?

unionemployee2• 7 years ago

I don't think that's avoidable. The demand is too high right now. Personally, I'd like to see increased automation and "low-pilot" aircraft enter service.

CydeWeys3• 7 years ago

You could make the same faulty argument to obviate the need for all safety features on everything. Safety is about defense in depth. Ideally we'd have all planes flown by perfect platonic human pilots, but such a thing does not actually exist. All people are flawed (some more than others), and we should design technology to be resilient in the face of the inevitable human failings to the fullest extent possible, especially when lives are on the line. Boeing has simply failed to do so here.

cjbprime11• 7 years ago

The pilot on this plane appears to have been expert, flying for the airline for around a decade.

jeffdavis• 7 years ago

https://xkcd.com/293/

rad_gruchalski• 7 years ago

The pilot had 8k+ hours of flight.

poof131• 7 years ago

If this accident is a second trim related incident due to their MCAS system, it is damn near criminal negligence at this point and they probably need to ground the fleet. From an earlier article, pulling back on the yoke would disable the system.[1] They removed that functionality. Not easy to teach people new habits or proper procedures when the intuitive solution worked. And if the intuitive solution worked is that not really the proper procedure despite what engineers on the ground think.

If MCAS is the culprit here, Boeing clearly released this functionality without proper vetting and testing. It’s a sad day for safety and for automation. These accidents will likely slow the advance of BVR for drones[2] and more autonomous flight for cargo.[3] The fact these accidents are occurring overseas where the pilots have less training will also buttress the decision for the 1500 hour rule.[4] Like I said, if MCAS is suspected here, probably time to ground the new 737 despite what it will do to Boeing, because right now it looks like they cut some corners, the FAA let them, and families are mourning. Pilot error isn’t really the issue, it’s engineering, process, and training.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19077371

[2] https://www.altiuas.com/bvlos-mean-commercial-drone-users/

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-10/will-you-...

[4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2018/07/27/a-perfe...

breck• 7 years ago

One note: the pilot here was a senior pilot with 8k+ hours.

foolrush• 7 years ago

because right now it looks like they cut some corners, the FAA let them, and families are mourning. Pilot error isn’t really the issue, it’s engineering, process, and training.

That doesn’t seem like engineering, process, nor training.

That looks like something connected to large scale corporate profit.

How did Boeing manage to gain self reporting to the FAA?

baybal22• 7 years ago

If MCAS is the culprit here, Boeing clearly released this functionality without proper vetting and testing

From what I read MCAS is not even a true safety system, much more like a piloting assist, and should not have had the authority to override pilot input.

It appears that the true stall avoidance system is a "hard" safety system and works independently with much safeguards, and a lot of "overrideability" just for such moments of sensor failure.

So, they added that dangerous system to just let pilots to have the same feel and experience as in old model - an absolutely noncritical issue.

Truly, "UX" people...

remote_phone3• 7 years ago

Boeing deserves to be sued into oblivion for this, if it turns out to be something related to Lion Air. It’s a horrible feature and they are being obstinate about it simply because they are afraid of liability. Meanwhile hundreds have died already.

everdev2• 7 years ago

for Boeing to put them in this situation is, in my opinion, also quite hazardous

I'm sure this is an edge case given all of the successful 737 MAX 8 fights, but it's a catastrophic one.

To go from smooth flying conditions to having the nose unexpectedly dive and having seconds to save your life and everyone on board is almost more dangerous than difficult flying conditions because it's so unexpected.

I'd be surprised if Boeing continues to treat this as a training issue. The plane needs to be better.

alistairSH3• 7 years ago

I'm sure this is an edge case given all of the successful 737 MAX 8 fights

There are 350 737Max in service. It's a brand new airplane - it went into service in mid-2017.

For 2 brand new (months old) 737Max to fall out of the sky is not an "edge case".

cjbprime11• 7 years ago

I just read that the software update for MCAS (the Lion Air crash cause) had been delayed and isn't rolling out until next month. If that's true, seems to raise the probability of this being a similar MCAS issue.

blantonl2• 7 years ago

Way to early to speculate as to the cause. You could raise the possibility as to a number of reasons as to what happened.

JshWright4• 7 years ago

The parent comment merely said delayed MCAS training would make it more likely that it was the cause. That seems like an obviously true statement... If the training had happen, that would obviously make it less likely.

Given the number of other similarities to the Lion Air crash, I think the parent comment was being pretty conservative in their speculation (at this point, I'd be surprised if it _wasn't_ MCAS related).

celticninja3• 7 years ago

I mean this is a comment section on HN, surely this is where speculation can occur?

tapland• 7 years ago

A messenger of Manwë pulled it out of the sky.

It was clearly marked speculation. If we are not allowed discussions about possibilities we can kill off comment fields right now.

55k• 7 years ago

What are your source on the delayed MCAS software update?

cjbprime11• 7 years ago

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-and-regulators-delay-jet...

Boeing and Regulators Delay Jetliner Fixes Prompted by Lion Air Crash

Software update, initially expected in January, now likely pushed until April or later

vonholstein• 7 years ago

Does someone here know offhand the fatality rate for the Max per flying hour at this time?

http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm lumps max together with other 737 models, which of course turns out to be very safe.

sligor• 7 years ago

theses high Flights numbers seems to be incoherent with the fact that Max is a new plane with small number delivered, it is surely a mistake with the 737NG (next gen) introduced in 1997

davesque• 7 years ago

Honestly, I know people often jump in here with technical comments on stories like these, but posting this stuff on HN always just feels like rubbernecking to me.

segmondy• 7 years ago

If this is a software error should someone be held responsible? Developer? QA? Manager? Did they follow their process? Kind of scary for us to think of...

Ethiopian Airlines plane crash: No survivors among 157 on board

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