Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/5/google_to_surpass_size_of_microsoft_windows_in_2009

by JohnN • 18 years ago

25 16 18 years ago

mattmaroon2• 18 years ago

Just because something is bigger than Windows doesn't mean MS should compete. The automotive industry is probably bigger than Windows. Maybe they should start making cars?

mixmax2• 18 years ago

The difference is that the automative industry won't undermine Microsofts businessmodel , but Google might.

If they look a few years down the line they should definitely compete against Google.

mattmaroon2• 18 years ago

That too seems to be mere speculation with no evidence or even sound reasoning supporting it. Nobody has yet presented a compelling picture of how search will stop MS from selling copies of Windows. It's no more accurate to say Google could compete in the OS space than it is to say MS could in search.

And don't even get me started on Office.

tectonic• 18 years ago

If Microsoft made cars...

1. For no reason whatsoever your car would crash twice a day.

2. Every time they repainted the lines on the road you would have to buy a new car.

... http://www.netscrap.com/netscrap_detail.cfm?scrap_id=689

systems• 18 years ago

okay, the main point in what you are saying is true.

if a company is working in a market that is reaching maturity or decline, it should look for a new market where it can invest its effort

but the trick is simple, MS have certain competencies (skills) the new market must be a market where its competencies would be relevant ... the even trickier part is, the relevence must not be so obvious, the product can be completly different, but the needed skills could be same

for example, Dell is good at complex assemblies, so maybe dell, can start assembling cars, instead of PCs, because a car can be customized in ways comparable to a PC

of course this is just an example, but you get the idea

edw5192• 18 years ago

Microsoft doesn't want to make the same mistake IBM did.

IBM enjoyed 70% market share in the enterprise for 30 years. They thought it would last forever. Until the PC came along. But they didn't take it seriously and look what happened.

Microsoft knows as well as anyone that the days of thick clients and proprietary software are numbered. So they'll milk that cow as long as they can.

No one knows for sure what's going to happen, but with thick pipes, thin clients, open source software, and the upheaval of the "enterprise", I'd be planting new seeds, too.

bilbo0s2• 18 years ago

IBM is a sleeper company, which is what microsoft is becoming, which is where the majority of the wealth in this nation is at. I have read the old articles from the 80's and 90's that said that Microsoft would supplant IBM. It is now 2008, and Microsoft generates about US$12B a quarter where IBM is doing right around US$24B a quarter. In other words we are still waiting. IBM made a decision to GIVE microsoft a market. The decision was all the more easy as Mrs. Gates, mom to Bill, was EDIT:(a high level executive at IBM) - on the same boards as the CEO and other board members of IBM - at the time.

My point in all this is that companies, the large ones, the ones that write the US$250M per annum IT checks, buy what IBM tells them to buy. IBM told them to buy Microsoft for a while, because writing that software themselves was a pain. Now IBM will look around for a cloud vendor to be their go to guy for cloud deployments. It is too early to say what this relationship will look like, but it is a certainty that whoever gets the IBM guys out pushing them, will be the enterprise monopoly in the future.

This is a SLIGHT oversimplification of the enterprise purchasing process for large organizations, but it gets at the fundamentals. And in any case, the negation is likely and sufficient to cause GOOG and MSFT trouble. That is, if IBM says NOT to buy Google or Microsoft cloud services, then they are non starters.

If you want to bet on a company that will ride the next enterprise upgrade wave, put your money on IBM. This is the only constant in the global enterprise IT market.

It is way to difficult to figure out whether Google can come up with a product that any large enterprise would want to use. That is, can they really innovate? I think open minded analysts agree that the jury is still out on that one. Equally vexing is the question of whether Microsoft can get their heads out of their butts long enough to create a product that conforms to the next computing paradigm? The only certainty is that whatever happens IBM will be supporting it, and THAT is where the money is. All US$100B a year worth!

And that is only likely to grow!

edw5192• 18 years ago

Mary Maxwell Gates was never an IBM employee. She was on United Way's executive committee at the same time as then IBM CEO John Akers. Their casual conversation led to IBM's introduction to Microsoft.

IBM never meant to give anything to anyone. They were as ruthless then as Microsoft is now. IBM, along with most of the rest of the enterprise world, never imagined the microcomputer as anything but a toy. They didn't even enter the market until 6 years after Apple.

In 1980, IBM was a hardware company. Today they are a service company. The makeovers in between were not painless and were not by choice. Just for not taking the PC seriously.

In 1980, you were as likely to find a job in a Fortune 500 company as anywhere else. Not anymore. New jobs are being created at a much faster rate by smaller, more nimble companies. After all, economies of scale don't mean as much in service economies. These smaller companies don't have the same decision making matrix as the enterprises and will use SaaS. Look at Salesforce.com.

bluelu• 18 years ago

Google's search business might be bigger than Windows, but let's not forget that the way we access the internet could change as well. A new protocol for accessing/finding information (no webservers anymore) could put google out of business and they would have to start at 0 as others would also.

bdouglas• 18 years ago

is it google's search business that's bigger, or the ad portion?

just how is bigger really defined?

the search business per se, doesn't really generate revenue in the same category as the ad portion.

if we're really talking about the revenue from the ad portion, then you need to consider what might throw a wrench in the advertising model being run by google. i can easily imagine a few that could have serious implications of the cash cow that's the google ad engine..

so just what is meant by "being bigger than microsoft"???

peace

diego• 18 years ago

How is search a natural monopoly? Switching search engines is much easier than switching operating systems. I do it all the time. In fact, every day I type queries into many search boxes besides Google's.

Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

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