Measles outbreak rages after anti-vaccine groups target vulnerable community

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/05/measles-outbreak-rages-after-anti-vaccine-groups-target-vulnerable-community/

by bluejekyll • 9 years ago

87 49 9 years ago

nonbel7• 9 years ago

I got the historical measles data from project tycho[1] a few years ago, and plotted by week. It looks like this outbreak is right on time: https://i.imgur.com/wVDvo43.png

The seasonality here is amazing.

[1] http://www.tycho.pitt.edu/data/level1.php

PeterisP• 9 years ago

Isn't there space for lawsuits - reckless endangerment, medical advice (harmful) without a licence, etc?

Or does first amendment override such cases and they can go on undeterred? After all, this is a case where this speech caused direct harm to particular individuals.

Kenji2• 9 years ago

You cannot remove the burden to think for oneself from people. Fining people who give wrong advice sets a really dangerous precedent. What is wrong? Will we start fining climate change deniers? What about fining people who believe that certain antidepressants are dangerous? Etc.

EDIT: I wanna add to this that if you make things government-mandated and force it on people, you only give the conspiracy theorists more reason to be suspicious.

akytt• 9 years ago

Simple. You endanger yourself - be my guest. You endanger others, you suffer. The key role of government is to represent community interest and not vaccinating your kids is very clearly endangering others.

the_cat_kittles3• 9 years ago

ok, lets get rid of the ohsa, epa, fda, building codes in general, traffic laws, etc... "you cannot remove the burden to think for oneself" is a stupidly simple response. people have a finite amount of decision making resources, and there are ways we can help... by enacting laws.

tcj_phx2• 9 years ago

What about fining people who believe that certain antidepressants are dangerous? Etc.

There is no controversy about SSRIs' ability to provoke suicide ideation in people who take these drugs.

http://ahrp.org/prozac-revisited-concerns-about-suicides-sur...

Commonly used psychiatric drugs are notorious for worsening patients' conditions.

easilyBored4• 9 years ago

People should eat read meat No, red meat is bad for you.

Which one should we sue? Slippery slope. In the end no one was forced anyone not to vaccinate the kids.

If vaccines are made mandatory then the state can fine/jail the parents and do them even if the parents chose not to

the_cat_kittles3• 9 years ago

what? eating red meat doesn't put other people at risk.

nonbel7• 9 years ago

Actually, as it says in the current article: "The vaccine is very safe and effective, with two doses being 97 percent effective at preventing infection."

Unfortunately, while 97% sounds great, "effectiveness" must be considered in light of the infectiousness of the virus. In this case it appears measles may be so infectious (eg one infected child can sneeze and expose an entire school, so-called "superspreaders"), that vaccination will cause a "honeymoon period" that ends with a gigantic epidemic.[I discussed this earlier here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13656252]

Now we are pretty much stuck with measles vaccination, but I doubt the original program would have been begun if they had today's knowledge. Anyway, when/if this giant measles epidemic happens, that is where you should point your fingers.

nonbel7• 9 years ago

I'd love if someone who disagrees would post why. The references are found in my earlier post (linked to above).

The honeymoon period, role of vaccine failure rate vs R0 value in epidemic generation, and herd immunity are all derived from the same general SIR models... So I don't see how you can reject what I am saying while still accepting the herd immunity concept (which is generally accepted).

gumby• 9 years ago

Wakefield lost his license to practice medicine in the UK for his fraudulent "studies" and the academic papers submitted based on them. So he moved to the US.

I wonder if, though, he could be prosecuted for practicing medicine without a license. Certainly a foreign physician without a US license (or a licensed US physician in a state in which she is not licensed) would be subject to that.

As a non-physician (and non-former physician), if I tried propagandizing on this issue I think I'd be safe. But it's not the license that makes you a physician.

protomyth• 9 years ago

some discussion from an earlier, local newspaper article https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14229989

AckSyn• 9 years ago

Darwin awards would suffice here if this antivax crap didn't hurt others who were vaccinating properly as people are supposed to.

cies2• 9 years ago

Could you please elaborate how someone not-vaxing who gets sick can hurt a vaxed person? I hear this argument some times but no-one was able to explain how this works.

nokcha• 9 years ago

Vaccines are not 100% effective. A small percentage of those vaccinated do not develop immunity.

spenvo• 9 years ago

What nokcha said, plus: Some people for legitimate health reasons can't get vaxxed, so they depend on others being immune (aka "herd immunity") to stay safe. That model only works if healthy kids get vaxxed

moosterv• 9 years ago

You can't get vaccinated before a certain age. If there are unvaccinated people around, spreading the disease, your child has a chance to catch it when they are still vulnerable.

CuriousCosmic• 9 years ago

The issue is 2-fold. First and most importantly is that there are people who either cannot get vaccinated for either medical or religious reasons and there are people with immune systems so weak that the vaccination serves little use protecting them. By having high vaccination rates, it serves as a buffer to protect these people by limiting their exposure to it.

The other side of the issue is that vaccinations do not guarantee immunity from a disease. Exposure to a disease puts anyone at risk but they are much less likely to get it if they are vaccinated but they still can get it none the less.

manyxcxi2• 9 years ago

Even more importantly certain vaccines are given at certain ages. So if some anti-science parent doesn't vaccinate their brood and say, take their kid to the same play area as my kids, one of which isn't a year old yet, she's now got an exposure to something she can't be vaccinated for yet.

This is why having high vaccination rates are so important. There is a percentage who can't be vaccinated (age, health issues, whatever), there's an unknown percentage for whom the vaccination just didn't work, and then there's the wide circle of immunity formed around them by everyone else who is immune and up to date on those immunizations.

tuacker• 9 years ago

Have a look at the video in this article[1]. Not everyone can get vaccinated (for example, doing so would kill them due to allergies/born with some form of deficit or weak/missing immune system). These people rely on herd immunity.

[1] http://www.forjudeforeveryone.com/2017/02/22/how-herd-immuni...

dragonwriter• 9 years ago

Could you please elaborate how someone not-vaxing who gets sick can hurt a vaxed person?

Because vaccines, while very effective, are less than perfectly effective. Vaccines have a first order effect of reducing the vaccinated person's chance of getting the disease when exposed, and a second order effect of reducing everyone else's chance of getting exposed.

samangan• 9 years ago

How can we combat woo-woo of this type on a local level? When I moved out to the bay area from Arkansas, I thought I would be escaping this type of garbage but it is still rampant out here. It just comes in a different form. Here the neighborhood health food stores have entire sections devoted to homepathic "medicines", and I see anti-vaxxer bumper stickers plastered all over town. Events like the "March for Science" that just happened are all good, but I worry that standing up for Science and "reason" is too general and abstract. How can local groups educate people to counteract these movements that have actual damaging effects on our communities? Are there organizations we can donate to that have this type of education as a primary goal?

ReligiousFlames3• 9 years ago

In the South and midwest, magical thinking (ie church, religion and faith) is given more weight than rationality.

In those sort of areas, the pastors and most prominent families have the most influence over communities beliefs, generally.

In the Bay Area, social groups tend to form around work colleagues or hobbies. There are some churches, but they're not typically the center of Valley social universes.

glasz2• 9 years ago

what's the point for all the hate? everybody who got the shot is safe. now you are running around screaming at ppl who didn't? how can one non-vaccinated person endanger vaccinated ppl?

joncampbelldev2• 9 years ago

They endanger the people for whom the vaccines are not effective (its not a 100% preventative), or people who have weakened immune systems / a medical condition and thus can't have the vaccine. The non-vaccinated person becomes an extra vector for spreading the disease amongst a population.

glasz2• 9 years ago

the theory is that vaccines train the immune system. so, it's not like the virus doesn't exist anymore but the body knows how to fight it. "weak" ppl are endangered anyway.

SigmundA• 9 years ago

Beyond herd immunity, which everyone should understand, there is the issue of kids not getting vaccinated due to parents choice. Is it ok for parents to deny medical care to a child due to superstition? When is it choice and when is it abuse?

Bottom line though the herd immunity issue means its not just your choice, now it affects me and mine as well, that crosses a bright line for me.

andrewflnr• 9 years ago

Who is profiting from anti-vaccination propaganda, and how? Are they just going for publicity? I know some actually believe it, but people like Wakefield need some sort of motive.

yuhong• 9 years ago

I have been thinking that probably most likely vaccines can appear to "cause" autism, but only if there is things like leaky gut.

ReligiousFlames3• 9 years ago

As antivaxxers and MMS folks are irrational child-abusers, they should be investigated by CPS. Worse, antivaxxers put the community at risk by reducing herd immunity. Just like fluoride in water, there should be no exceptions for protective prophylaxis like vaccines. No exclusions for religious magical thinking or affluenza "conditions," only based on medical need where harm would be likely.

danjc• 9 years ago

Have you ever read the list of side effects of a vaccine?

ReligiousFlames3• 9 years ago

Do you understand how lists of side effects are created?

bobdole1234• 9 years ago

You understand the differential of risk right?

You've got a 1 in 10 million or so chance of serious adverse reaction to vaccination.

You've got a 1 in 10 chance of serious adverse reaction if you're exposed to the virus.

You're effectively saying something along the lines of "Do you know how dangerous motorcycle riding is?! We should play russian routlette instead!"

Measles outbreak rages after anti-vaccine groups target vulnerable community

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