Android-based Smartphones Outpaced Apple's iPhone in Q1 2010

http://www.dailytech.com/Androidbased+Smartphones+Outpaced+Apples+iPhone+in+Q1+2010/article18338c.htm

by tc • 16 years ago

74 94 16 years ago

No news here.

1. More networks, more devices. It's like saying that Windows sells more than Macbook Pros. 2. Everyone and their mothers knows that in a month Apple will introduce a new one 3. Soon the big majority of cell phones will be what we usually call smartphones. It would be fool to think that one single device will maintain dominate the marketshare. The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number.

detst• 16 years ago

> The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number.

Really? Is that what matters? It seems to me the more significant thing would be the OS and not any one device, especially for HN-types that write apps and build sites for OSes/browsers and not a piece of hardware.

javery• 16 years ago

The most significant thing is actually what kind of market there is for the apps/sites we are building. Market is not just about the number of users, it's about how much those users are buying. It's the reason that Mac developers can make more than their PC counterparts on many types of applications, because the Mac users buy more software. (at least I know I have since I switched).

davidedicillo3• 16 years ago

The problem is that doing great applications that sells well it's harder when you need to make them looks polished like iphone ones with such a big variety of devices. Soon your fridge will use Android, that doesn't mean I'd like to develop apps for it.

Also iPhone users have been "trained" for years with iTunes to buy digital content.

moultano• 16 years ago

Does that matter to us? When I'm deciding what to support as a developer I care only about the size of the platform.

davidedicillo3• 16 years ago

It's not about the size of the market as much as the quality.

Would you rather have 100,000 potential users and make 1,000 sales or 200,000 users and make 800. Or maybe make the same amount of sale but being able to charge more because you know that who spend $500 for a phone is more incline to spend $10 on an app than somebody who spent $100?

sueders100• 16 years ago

"Does that matter to us?" Yes, I imagine fragmentation would matter when it comes to developing for a platform.

catch232• 16 years ago

I think you would care about making money more than the size of the platform. There was a time when MySpace had 2x more users than Facebook, but app developers on MySpace didn't have the same level of virility that Facebook apps had and thus it was far more lucrative to make FB apps.

MWinther2• 16 years ago

I agree. Which is why those numbers aren't that interesting when comparing Android to iPhone OS, since iPod touches and iPads are a part of the platform.

That being said, it clearly says that the Android platform is growing.

dagw• 16 years ago

If all you care about is number of potential users you should target either S60 or JavaME.

buster• 16 years ago

"Soon the big majority of cell phones will be what we usually call smartphones." My guess here is, that this will be a major winning point for Android, as i think that the next-gen low cost smartphones (presumably the ones that will most likely be bought by current featurephone owners) will be Android ones. Vodafone in germany will sell an Android phone for 130€ (prepaid, 1€ with contract) soon, for example.

Even more so, this may be a huge advantage in the emerging markets like china and india.

ergo988• 16 years ago

>No news here.

Is this like "the seven stages of grief" or something?

Yeah, there is big news here, denial-be-damned.

A few short months ago we were all told that there was just so much confusion in Android-land. So many choices and so many versions it was a major turn off for consumers. Instead the one-sized-fits-all iPhone model was the winner (and it was). Now it's "duh...of course Android moves ahead" as if that's the new reality.

>Everyone and their mothers knows that in a month Apple will introduce a new one

The Nexus 2 will be out in a very short while. The Samsung Galaxy S will be out with 3x the GPU power. The Evo 4G of course. And on, and on, and on.

>The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number.

It was never about a single device. It has never been a single device.

stanleydrew• 16 years ago

There were a lot of iPod Touch devices (and now iPads) sold too though, so the mobile application market is still heavily dominated by Apple devices. Good to see competition in the smartphone space though.

dave16192• 16 years ago

Android is definitely picking up pace. I just hope Apple releases an iPhone for Verizon. I think that will give the iPhone a boost. Apple should also release an iPhone Nano, a smaller version of the iPhone. Maybe also have colors.

listic• 16 years ago

Hm, iPod nano might actually be a viable idea.

I mean, now, when Apple (a) stopped sticking to the only resolution for all iPhone OS devices and (b) is putting much higher resolution screen into older package - maybe it might make sense for them to also put old resolution (320 x 480) into smaller package?

The problems I see in these approach are the following:

1. How can one meaningfully make iPhone smaller/more energy efficient/cheaper?

2. Do people need a smaller iPhone? Is physically smaller touch screen as usable?

dave16192• 16 years ago

Yeah, good points. I think they can make the screen a bit smaller than the current iPhone, but keep the 320x480 resolution. This way apps will still be usable. But they can also remove space from the top and bottom of the phone and make it a lot thinner. Overall, I think they can really shrink the iPhone significantly. This could appeal to lots of people. Especially, now the iPad is out and people don't mind having a smaller iPhone to compliment their iPad.

jsz0• 16 years ago

I think if Apple ever does an iPhone Nano it will be more of an extension of the current iPod Nano than a smaller version of the iPhone. It would be difficult to scale the iPhone UI/apps down to a physically smaller screen without usability problems. I imagine they would only go this route if iPod sales really plummeted due to convergence of media players in phones. It might be a compelling device though with an iPhone-ish UI and some simplified widget style applications.

martythemaniak3• 16 years ago

I think Android outselling the iPhone (and eventually overtaking it in raw numbers) will soon become pretty obvious. Android is a pretty mass-market product - its flexibility means that manufacturers can put a wide array of products and users can make those products their own.

I really don't think a single product (especially a tightly-defined one like the iPhone) can meet even a majority of people's needs.

symesc3• 16 years ago

I agree.

And I think this is why Adobe's anti-trust activity against Apple won't go very far.

Apple is very comfortable taking part of the market, owning it, doing things their way, and making boatloads of money. They are not trying to be everything to everyone.

Disclosure: I just switched from iPhone to a Google N1 because I was tired of the box Apple put me in.

revaaron13• 16 years ago

@symesc: I just switched from an iPhone to a N1 for the same reason. An inferior phone for a dozen reasons- but a switch I plan to stick with, for now.

Volscio2• 16 years ago

Just wait till an Android tablet comes out.

InclinedPlane• 16 years ago

I can't think of a reason why a device maker couldn't put google Chrome OS on a tablet (which would be a closer approximation to the iPad).

melling• 16 years ago

Becoming pretty obvious? I thought it was really obvious almost 3 months ago.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1129465

yason• 16 years ago

Android is the Windows of smartphone operating systems. iPhone OS is the OS X of smartphone operating systems.

Guess which will have the majority of sales and smaller profit-per-phone and which will have minority of sales and higher profit-per-phone, eventually.

jpark• 16 years ago

If we follow that train of thought further...

Guess which will have the majority of apps and developers?

unless it becomes way too hard to target a sizable chunk of the Android market due to hardware spec fragmentation.

loire2803• 16 years ago

Another thing to worry about is manufacturers abandoning support for old phones prematurely, or causing long delays between updates to new major versions. (I'm not sure if Android phones can update over the air, but if not then you may have a large number of users who never upgrade their OS.)

Yes, technical users can probably acquire third-party firmware if the manufacturers drop the ball, but that's not a mainstream fix.

Android will not be fun to develop for if you're targeting (hardware spec fragmentation) x (Android feature fragmentation) different combinations of phone.

not_an_alien2• 16 years ago

While people will want to dismiss this because it's based in several devices, prior to the release of the new iPhone, and because it's still restricted to AT&T - all valid facts - the important thing to notice here is trend. Android devices have been gaining market pretty solidly lately; first the AdMob ad pushing statistics, now unit sales... this seems to be one from many more that will come.

Apple has no reason to be afraid, I'm pretty sure, as they are probably happy in having just a slice of the market and still being super lucrative (same position they play in the desktop business). But for app developers, this is a pretty strong hit of future market changes.

hboon2• 16 years ago

Not necessary. Their strategy seems to be going for the mass market with their iPhone-OS-based products rather than a niche with OS X-based products. Look at their:

1. Pricing for iPhone (after the initial launch), iPod touch and iPad launch price. They aren't the most expensive "smartphones" and tablets. 2. App store app prices, especially for iPhones/iPod touch. They don't control the prices, but they provide a list to choose from and they indirectly influence pricing. See (3). 3. App store top X, what's hot, etc charts. Apps are sold exactly like mp3s.

barrkel• 16 years ago

And developer tool lock-in: section 3.3.1.

zweben• 16 years ago

Looking only at the price they charge consumers doesn't give an accurate picture of their pricing strategy. Most estimates I've seen peg the average total revenue Apple makes per iPhone hardware sale at about $600, most of this paid to Apple by AT&T. Once that's taken into account, the iPhone probably has one of the highest revenues per unit on the market.

So their strategy is really to make a product that everyone wants, and to use that popularity to get phone companies to sell a high-margin niche product at mass market prices.

martythemaniak3• 16 years ago

Can you name a major market where the majority of users own the same exact product? People like different cars, different appliances, different houses, etc. How do you expect the phones to be different?

emehrkay• 16 years ago

Good to see that an open platform is leading the way with these "super personal computers" (phones/tablets).

I still love my iphone and pad, but it is nice to know that the market leader isnt some corporation who is bent on defining how the market should move

loire2803• 16 years ago

Google's interest in how the mobile market develops is at least as strong as Apple.

Google provided the business muscle involved in getting a phone sold by a major carrier (who provide the massive subsidies that make these phones mainstream) and Google's massive popularity among regular internet users helped drive interest.

Google's involvement is the key factor in Android's adoption.

WiseWeasel• 16 years ago

Now that Android has somewhat matured and HP is dumping massive resources into WebOS, it may be time for Apple to think about winning hearts and minds again, doing things like allowing iPhone users to install the apps they want to install, including those which carriers and other partners may not be particularly fond of, as Android and WebOS users are able to do.

Of course the yearly iPhone release cycle is a big factor, and it can be expected that the product will do relatively poorly at the end of its cycle, but that's also what makes the iPhone so incredibly profitable for Apple. A possible solution to this may be for Apple to have two radically different iPhone models serving different markets, and have the release cycles staggered by six months. Another alternative would be to release a new model every eight months instead of twelve, take a hit in profitability, and still be able to line up with people's two-year plan refreshes, now every three phone models instead of two. Overall, this problem is somewhat mitigated by the attraction of iPhone OS app availability and the iPhone's brand strength, so it may not be the most important issue to address.

The other obvious factor is the exclusive carrier agreement with AT&T in the US, with Verizon pouring marketing money into Android to counter Apple's iPhone. Apple is leaving the door wide open for competitors to establish themselves with people who prefer other carriers for various reasons, giving a great boost to Android device vendors. Ending this exclusive distribution agreement as soon as possible seems like the most obvious answer to this competitive pressure.

Personally, I recommend people get Android phones because I'm fearful of the power Apple wields over its users (namely me, making me jailbreak my iPhone to run valuable applications that Apple won't allow for whatever reason), and I need credible competition to keep that power in check. I think many technophiles are rooting for and promoting competitors, even if they use iPhones themselves, simply due to Apple's repression of user empowerment with iPhone OS devices. I honestly believe that loosening the reins on their iPhone OS users would afford Apple a whole lot more goodwill with geeks, and remove many of the reservations they have recommending iPhones to people. Making the iPhone more geek-friendly should obviously not be done at the expense of usability for the less geeky, but the value of courting this class of users is to be ignored at Apple's peril, as they are the ones many people trust to guide their purchasing decisions.

So that seems about the extent of what Apple can do to turn their fortunes around. It will be interesting to see how this marketshare trend holds in the next year in relation to the iPhone release cycle, ruling out the effect of the end of the current iPhone model's life, compounded by the Gizmodo iPhone 4G leak. There are other obvious areas of improvement in the iPhone OS I'm sure they're working on, such as a workable documents and basic filesystem functionality, but the PR problem surrounding the issue of vendor control over users seems like the critical one for the iPhone at this point. That said, I don't want to take away from this momentous day for Android users, developers and stakeholders.

This is a huge milestone for the Android platform, and a watershed moment for mobile app developers. You can bet this is music to the ears of Android devs looking for investment, and that Android will be getting a lot better software for it. It's good to see Apple get a taste of humble pie; they've always done their best work as underdogs, when the pressure is on. Personally, if Apple stays their current course another year, I would expect this trend to be irreversible.

Disclosure: I own some AAPL and PALM shares. Sorry for the essay!

Android-based Smartphones Outpaced Apple's iPhone in Q1 2010

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