West Antarctica Begins to Destabilize with ‘Intense Unbalanced Melting’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/west-antarctica-begins-to-destabilize-with-intense-unbalanced-melting

by antouank • 10 years ago

151 116 10 years ago

bloomberg.com

ajmurmann3• 10 years ago

What's the best way to profit from rising sea levels? Investing in land that's higher up in our nearby coastal cities?

bergie• 10 years ago

Land reclamation companies, or buy a boat

13of40• 10 years ago

Yeah, I think a lot of places are going to react by building dikes, at least at first, so if you could get into that business...

oliv__• 10 years ago

This better be sarcasm

logicallee• 10 years ago

I don't see anything even slightly objectionable, unless ajmurmann were throwing around billions and helping regulate to ensure continuing rising sea levels. This poster is obviously viewing it as an inevitable externality and asking how they can invest profitably. They mention investing in higher land - but since coastal properties will literally disappear underwater, there could be other ways to profit. Additionally, solar power (which might be heavily subsidized), electric cars, even something insane like fusion-powered electric airplanes (a pipe dream, it's ridiculous) would all be reasonable answers. I mention the airplane thing as jetliners are a leading cause of Co2 emissions which is thougth responsible for this rising sea level. -- as literally trillions of dollars in seaside property become uninhabitable due to flooding (literally trillions, this is not an exaggeration) society might decide to instead spend $10,000,000,000,000 (that's $10 trillion) to halt it today. It's reasonable for OP to ask how given that society will be feeling a push to spend $10,000,000,000,000 - how he/she can be better off with this analysis done today.

Zero objection and there is no moral component whatsoever to their question.

EDIT:

I'd like someone to explain the downvoting behavior (of my comment). As multiple of my examples show, the investment can be in alternative energy, for example, when obscene expanses of valuable coastland are being flooded and people are simply 'forced' to act. I don't understand why the question or my defense of it were downvoted.

tjic• 10 years ago

Trying to make a profit is the most effective way of helping people.

I hope that it is NOT sarcasm.

ajmurmann3• 10 years ago

I'm not saying I want to make climate change worse or lobby for it out anything. Unfortunately climate change is happening and there are indicators that we already crossed the line to runaway climate change (methane coming out of the permafrost). Why should I not try to make a profit from this fact as long as I don't make it worse? How is this different than running a funeral home?

wott• 10 years ago

I don't think it is: we are on HN :-/

nonbel2• 10 years ago

I don't think it would be the rising sea levels. It is the continent sized areas around the poles filled with previously inaccessible resources. So look at eg polar mining, drilling, shipping.

throwaway7292• 10 years ago

Renewable energy. Once things get bad enough the world will wake up and renewables will become huge.

ajmurmann3• 10 years ago

I am wondering if by the time we wake up it's too late for renewable energy. Given that the methane is literally exploding out of the ground in Siberia it already might be too late. I am afraid it might be a likely scenario that the hod outs especially in the US will go from denial to resignation.

maxerickson• 10 years ago

Renewables are already huge. Once batteries get a bit better and solar gets a bit cheaper, things will really get going. The deployment won't wait for the world to wake up about global warming.

philipkglass• 10 years ago

I agree that renewables are going to be huge but I don't know what companies are going to get rich off of it. What will allow individual companies to build good profit margins? The biggest PV efficiency boost being implemented in the mainstream right now (passivated emitter cell structure) was invented in Australia in the 1980s but the patents expired before it was implemented on a large scale. Core patents for heterojunction cells (another approach to high efficiency on silicon) recently expired too so unrestricted competition can reign there also. The barriers to entry in PV manufacturing are pretty low and look likely to stay that way.

Is wealth going to be made on installing rather than manufacturing hardware? It's also hard to see how e.g. SolarCity protects its margins from competition with other installers. Customer acquisition is a big chunk of costs right now, but if SolarCity spends a bunch on ads to get Americans thinking about rooftop solar that helps competing installers too. Look at the Australian market for a glimpse at the future (much lower installation costs, much higher penetration, broad consumer awareness without further advertising).

EDIT: my own best guess is that if there's going to be a breakout company that achieves high margins on cleantech it's going to be in the area of storage. That's because a patented approach that can seriously lower storage costs or increase cycle life (which amounts to practically the same thing for stationary storage) is an advantage that can't be immediately cloned. OTOH I do not expect protected margins for companies that are lowering costs by scaling, e.g. Tesla's battery gigafactory. Historical reminder: at the beginning of the 2000s China had no solar PV industry to speak of. In less than a decade Chinese manufacturers went to dominating the market because IP barriers were minimal and they could scale larger very quickly once there was a state commitment.

IsaacL• 10 years ago

Coastal cities are unlikely to be flooded in our lifetimes. We're looking at about 1m [1] sea level rise in 100 years, or 50cm in our lifetime. That means coastal cities will face more severe storms, not ending up submerged. [2]

"Pfeffer adds estimates of sea level rise due to thermal expansion and ice melting to calving approximations and concludes that SLR by the end of the century will range 0.8 to 2.0 m above present with an emphasis on the lower area of this range (Figure 7)."

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_sea_level#Sea-level_at_...

[2] http://uk.businessinsider.com/cities-exposed-to-rising-sea-l...

maze-le• 10 years ago

Coastal cities are unlikely to be flooded in our lifetimes. We're looking at about 1m [1] sea level rise in 100 years, or 50cm in our lifetime.

Thats true, but what most people don't know is that sea level rise don't necessarily mean catastrophic floods. A far bigger problem -- in our lifetime -- is aquifer salination, that is the intrusion of saltwater into coastal freshwater aquifers. This is already happening, in the Nile-valley, Benin and Cyprus but also in Louisiana and California.

When the salinity of coastal Freshwater aquifers reaches a critical level, growing crops in coastal areas can be all but impossible.

pmyjavec3• 10 years ago

"That means coastal cities will face more severe storms, not ending up submerged. [2]"

How does that work? Coastal cities will have more than half a meter more water to deal with and additionally have to face larger more powerful storm surges on top of those 50cm. Don't forget at certain times of the year we see stronger tides.

I also wonder if in 2007, the IPCC were more optimistic about our ability to curb emissions and took into account some of the feedback looks which are kicking in?

irrational4• 10 years ago

Isn't Miami already having problems with flooding at high tide? It doesn't seem like it would take that big of a change from them to have flooding problems when it isn't high tide.

jonnycowboy• 10 years ago

Shorting insurance companies.

hash-set2• 10 years ago

You have no idea how hard it is to short something do you?

tajen• 10 years ago

There is the option of running a charity, one that would be ready to help at the right places by reurbanisng and reorganising territories. If you benefit from the charity (=if it gives you credit for politics or if you get a salary for the full-time job), then you're profiting.

Be a consultant in XXIth century urbanization, be it to save energy, reduce pollution or to prepare for the worst. Once we get +2 degrees, countries might understand why +6 degrees might be harmful and massively subscribe to your services.

Or start a weapon industry. See that Daesh thing? That's what happens when there's a slight draught every summer.

Start a boat people company. They'll be in very much demand in 20 years.

You'll object that you have much more money than that and you're not aiming for a mere salary. Well, you'll be happy to have the skill everyone needs when the rest of the world is fighting for survival. Just imagine what if the world votes on a complete ban on petrol and puts the world on an energy diet. Which is the only thing we must do.

sesqu• 10 years ago

Investing in coastal construction, maintenance and emergency recovery seem fine ideas, as well as things like portable energy and long-distance shipping.

Spooky23• 10 years ago

Wait for a couple of years of heavy flooding/storm activity, buy distressed beachfront property at a discount, and flip it when you have a few years with no flooding.

rch• 10 years ago

Buy land in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. You'd be in good company.

h4nkoslo• 10 years ago

Given all of these market mechanisms & broad consensus about GW effects amongst a certain wealthy & market-moving slice of the population (coastal landowners) it is extremely odd that they continue to, eg, pump money into Miami real estate. And AFAICT there is no macro-hypothesis global warming hedge fund with any significant level of assets, so hey, money on the table.

Their revealed belief would seem to be that the effects will be mitigated one way or another.

applecore• 10 years ago

Real estate. Invest in an area that can withstand or recover quickly from a significant sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions[1].

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/science/9-cities-to-live-i...

kafkaesq• 10 years ago

I wouldn't mess with real estate speculation. The best route would be to look into ways to profit from protracted regional conflicts, massive (forced) dislocations of whole populations, famine, despair and hopelessness, generally.

Because those are slated to be (and according to some measures, already are in certain areas) the primary impacts of climate change, for the geographically unlucky.

mzw_mzw5• 10 years ago

Find the people who are claiming that the sea levels will rise and destroy our cities, and attempting to sell you things based on that. Buy stock in their company.

ommunist5• 10 years ago

Blockchain and AI. Pack your consciousness into undeletable network of computers distributed in outer space and go take a break on Mars. My grandgrandsons will do ok by flintknapping, the usual means of exchange will be booze. There will be plenty of water for it.

vkou3• 10 years ago

Invest into munitions manufacturers.

youeeeeeediot• 10 years ago

Investment in coastal flood prevention technology for major city centers that can legitimately be helped. Places below sea level today - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_places_on_land_with_el... - need to be abandoned.

pmyjavec3• 10 years ago

Won't a lot of this coastal flood protection infrastructure just add emissions to the atmosphere, thus grossly exacerbating the problem? Seems like way to little, way to late.

Trying to just "build a wall" around cities just doesn't sound like it's going to work, I even saw designs where buildings in Manhattan will have to be built on stilts, but how much environmental environmental damage will all this new construction do?

Probably best off to just start relocating these cities and find new homes for the inhabitants.

This combined with other issues like fracking, leaking methane into the atmosphere aren't exactly filling me with confidence.

stale2002• 10 years ago

You are overestimating the effects of climate change.

Sea levels will rise by a meter over the next hundred years. That's really not very much in the scheme of things.

alanpca• 10 years ago

Is water really going to make it into death valley, or other mountain-protected areas? It seems like the only real threat in the USA is New Orleans.

staticelf• 10 years ago

This is why big countries suck. They are slow to change and a wrong move is horribly damaging. Look at the US or China, no matter how I or all my countrymen live in Sweden it won't really matter if climate change deniers get in charge in the US for example.

I just think it's so sad to see everything go to shit due to some greedy assholes that won't invest in solutions that are effective AND sustainable.

I plan to become a climate change prepper in the future because shit will hit the fan sooner or later.

ocschwar3• 10 years ago

China halts work on partly built coal plants.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/business/23-Oct-16/china-axes-part-...

toomuchtodo3• 10 years ago

And their renewables deployment is so fast, overcapacity is a concern.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-growth-in-renewable-...

EDIT: I'm not ready to call climate change solved yet, but at the deployment trajectory China is on, the rest of the world will have no choice but to follow, as China is pushing renewable generation costs very low (which undercuts nuclear and fossil fuels, pushing their prices higher making renewables even more competitive). Solar and wind are both below 3 cents/kWh unsubsidized, with wind expected to fall another 15% in the next 2-3 years, and solar another 25% in the same time period.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter

Retric• 10 years ago

There are nuclear power plants that are being decommissioned early in the US from lower renewable costs. http://www.npr.org/2016/10/24/498842677/waste-families-left-...

Grazester• 10 years ago

I think big countries should be made to pay the smaller ones affected by climate change. We weren't the ones that caused it but will be made to suffer the most because of it(rising tides, effects on the ocean which we depend on for our food source, lack of rainfall). We are very much seeing the effects already!

tremon2• 10 years ago

Guyana is already trying to cash in in a comparable way: http://www.worldwatch.org/node/6318

emp_zealoth• 10 years ago

Yeah, I'm going to believe it when I see it.

USA still haven't even paid what it owes to Nicaragua for fucking it up.

The US also owes about 1.3 billion to the UN due to non-payments.

hash-set2• 10 years ago

It would be stupid to crash our economy and then find out that the "solutions" didn't work. Or that we come up with technological fix to the problem. Or that that whole thing was just a ploy by leftists to seize power.

Anyhow, if you expect 7 billion people to do anything in regards to climate change, don't hold your breath.

toomuchtodo3• 10 years ago

Anyhow, if you expect 7 billion people to do anything in regards to climate change, don't hold your breath.

Except that China is halting construction on 20+ coal plants. And deploying renewables faster than any other country. And putting in place heavy subsidies for electric vehicles. Chinese citizens overwhelmingly support renewables and the cost associated with it:

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/09/29/china-cities-overwhelmi...

Americans? One presidential candidate wants more fracking, the other one thinks China invented climate change, and everyone else is oblivious in their SUV on their way to Starbucks.

One might argue its easier for China to evolve to a non-carbon economy because their citizens haven't tasted the decadence Americans have of a carbon-intensive lifestyle; regardless, China is going above and beyond what the US has ever considered for climate change policy, and drag us Americans along for the ride. Thanks China?

c0nducktr• 10 years ago

Or that that whole thing was just a ploy by leftists to seize power.

Well that's a particularly ridiculous theory.

politician• 10 years ago

... just a ploy ...

Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/1732/

Camillo• 10 years ago

That doesn't make any sense. If the US were split into the 50 states, you would have to get 50 governments separately to agree to carbon regulations, instead of one. Same with China or with any other large country.

Also, a large country is likely to have regions that will lose big in case of global warming, while other regions are indifferent or even stand to gain. The large country's single government has reason to oppose global warming in that case, which means that it can put all of its diplomatic weight on the side of global warming countermeasures. And once countermeasures were agreed to, they can be enforced across the entire country. If it were split up into smaller countries, the ones that will be less affected by global warming have an incentive to avoid countermeasures so they can exploit their competitive advantage there.

Florin_Andrei4• 10 years ago

If the US were split into the 50 states, you would have to get 50 governments separately to agree to carbon regulations, instead of one.

Sure, but then about half of those would actually do something about it.

Of course, the other half would keep thumping the Bible or Atlas Shrugged (or both), but even so that's a fraction of the current level of inaction.

sitkack• 10 years ago

50 states wouldn't have the global power to keep oil on top for so long. We wouldn't be in this mess w/o the combined power and control and capture of the US government.

awt• 10 years ago

Opposition to large states certainly makes sense if you are concerned about climate change, but perhaps not for the reason you think. Large centralized governments and economies cause wasteful and short sighted resource consumption (and thus CO2 production) through massive debt bubbles on a scale never before seen.

DominikR• 10 years ago

This is why big countries suck

Yeah, for the small countries that have no influence whatsoever. Sweden once also was a great country (I doubt you would have complained back then) but it overextended in its wars and got basically castrated by the Russian Empire.

I believe you have other problems in Sweden right now after your men allowed your country to be invaded.

ocschwar3• 10 years ago

Grow bamboo.

Harvest it.

Bury it.

That's the sort of thing we have to start thinking about.

rwmj2• 10 years ago

I wonder if the carbon released by digging holes and cutting down the bamboo is greater than the carbon sequestered this way? At any rate I'd suggest not bothering to bury the bamboo, you can just pile it up somewhere.

ocschwar3• 10 years ago

Well, we have all sorts of schemes proposed to partly burn biomass and bury or spread the resulting charcoal. Surely raw green bamboo would hold more carbon.

Frompo• 10 years ago

Bamboo rots and emits methane.

ChrisBland2• 10 years ago

It has been a while but I thought that algae grown in raceway farms was the most efficient way to remove carbon? Love to read more on the bamboo side of it if you have links.

CapitalistCartr• 10 years ago

Yes, I've come to the same conclusion. After growing bamboo, it was my first idea, too, but algae is unbeatable for rate of growth. Here in Florida, we could grow millions of metric tons easily. The food could be food waste and sewage.

jofer2• 10 years ago

Burying bamboo or other biomass is not a particularly reliable or effective form of carbon sequestration. (Anywhere you bury it, it will decompose and most of the C02 removed from the atmosphere will wind up as CH4 + CO2.)

Carbon sequestration is a very active area of research, but for the most part, you're looking at injecting liquid C02 or water with a very large amount of dissolved C02 into deep reservoirs. Ideally, you want to inject it into a rock that will react with it to precipitate carbonate minerals over time, instead of dissolving what's already there.

At any rate, large-scale carbon sequestration is an interesting but difficult problem. It's been done successfully on small scales, but how do you do it on a global, carbon-neutral scale? It's surprisingly tough to figure out, and we're not putting anywhere enough focus on it. It's certainly better funded than a lot of things, but it needs more research and more funding.

snarfy• 10 years ago

Instead of trying to bury it, grow more. Increasing the total living biomass would reduce CO2.

jws• 10 years ago

Before you bury it, convert it to biochar. This keeps it from rotting into methane and escaping and improves the soil requiring less water and fertilizer to grow crops.

reneherse• 10 years ago

Why bury it when you can use it as a building material and textile?

cicero2• 10 years ago

Build large libraries with lots of paper books.

M_Grey• 10 years ago

What a depressing, predictable series of events. Just wait until people start connecting the dots between climate change and global instability. I predict useless hysteria.

E63003• 10 years ago

What, exactly, is "West Antarctica"?

irrational4• 10 years ago

The half in the Western Hemisphere?

E63003• 10 years ago

Does it then follow that the half between meridians +90° and -90° is "Northern Antarctica"?

idlewords• 10 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctica

knz• 10 years ago

To save the click: "West Antarctica, or Lesser Antarctica, one of the two major regions of Antarctica, is the part of that continent that lies within the Western Hemisphere, and includes the Antarctic Peninsula. It is separated from East Antarctica by the Transantarctic Mountains and is covered by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."

ommunist5• 10 years ago

Bloomberg rarely does proper math. Melt both polar caps and the ice of Greenland, and you barely get global sea level rise by very few inches. Antarctics as a whole is 90% of the world land-based ice. 29 mln cubic km. All of the floating ice is around 3 mln cubic km. It may look that it can cause 60m high sea level rise, but most of this will be evaporated into milder global climate and stronger rivers. We shall have larger Caspian Sea, larger Aral Sea, perhaps green Sakhara, and perhaps come catastrophic rains in the temperate zone. Picture is very distant and very different from global warming speculations anyway. The Earth seen past with no polar caps, it also seen ice ages, these will inevitably happen again.

orf• 10 years ago

Well then everything is fine, what could go wrong.

ommunist5• 10 years ago

On a scale, the only thing that really goes is biological evolution. And it blooms after stress events.

vkou3• 10 years ago

You're forgetting thermal expansion (And it takes decades for increases in atmospheric temperatures to cause a likewise increase in water temperatures.)

ommunist5• 10 years ago

I actually bet on thermal contraction and the new ice age to come faster than melting of all of the polar ice we have today.

rndmind• 10 years ago

I disagree with your comment, the massive ocean gyres and global weather patterns will be severely impacted, with results that are totally unpredictable, including a drastic mix of ecosystems and acidification of the oceans.

On top of this... for the love of all that is holy, basic english would be "*HAS seen".

ommunist5• 10 years ago

No prob, we'll see. I shall put English Grammar to my testament, to enable our grandgrandchildren decide who was right. I doubt, however that this grammatical norm will survive the next global glacial event.

Pica_soO• 10 years ago

We cant stop it, can we at least do ecology transplants?

Little patches of nature system, taking from destabilizing temperature zones to areas where they could thrive?

Basically, give up the concept of a invasive species, and speed a adaption up that would occur anyway?

West Antarctica Begins to Destabilize with ‘Intense Unbalanced Melting’

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