I don't think online education will have a significant impact on major universities. However, there are a lot of colleges and universities that probably shouldn't exist. I can think of two types:
1. State schools that became 'universities' in the past 30 years but were previously 'teachers colleges' 'nursing colleges' and other specialized tertiary educational institutions for specific careers.
Seriously, does a big state like Illinois need 12 different business colleges, 12 different English departments, 12 different chemistry departments? Or how about Idaho, population 1.5 million with its 3 state universities and 5 state colleges. Really?
No - a lot of 'universities' only got that appellation because administrators lobbied state legislatures really hard for more money if they created the appearance that they'd be a 'world class' institution. They're not. The quality of education at many of these schools, excepting a handful of departments or colleges where they've really invested heavily, just isn't that different from what you could get in an online program. It'd be different if the University of Northern Iowa went back to being the Iowa State Teachers College - Iowa needs teachers! It probably doesn't need three different universities graduating International Studies majors.
2. Small standalone private colleges founded in earlier periods that don't really have a particular rationale for existing anymore.
Back in the 1800s, the Baltimore Conference of the Methodist Episcopal Church needed to have a college that would be attended primarily by Methodist Episcopalians who wanted to be taught by other Methodist Episcopalians. Now, what is it exactly that distinguishes Goucher as an institution from any of the dozens of other tiny private colleges dotting our nation's landscape? Do their degrees carry much weight?
They're expensive, and up in the northeast it seems like most of them are for well-to-do suburban kids who couldn't get into the Ivy League and don't want to study with the state school rabble they've been looking down on most of their lives. What's more, it seems like a lot of them spend more time focusing on holding onto real estate than they do investing in research and academia that makes our nation better.
So I think major state research universities, commuter colleges in big cities, and the private university giants will do fine, and probably make even more money from whatever happens online. But if you're giving Swarthmore $50k a year, or Western Michigan $20k, you literally get what you pay for.