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schnable

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Claude Opus 4.6 6 months ago

* stop making new models and people keep using the existing models, not switch to a competitor still investing in new models.

This is a bad idea. But in the same spirit, a bad but less bad idea: require the user to actively enable the deprecated feature via config or something, but have a known schedule to eventually expire it (with a hard error, not randomly incorrect data) and force the user to re-enable it. Causes some pain but not random, hard to track down bug. More like dealing with expiring certs - eventually, the user will want a permanent fix.

This is how it was with cable, and it was actually better for the content providers. They made shows and got fat checks from the cable companies every year.

Then they all copied Netflix, because the stockmarket was rewarding it, and had to start dealing with billing, customer retention, technology platforms, advertising platforms. And they all lost a ton of money a doing it.

Why is it a poor proxy? Someone who really understands the concepts and has the aptitude for it will get answers more quickly than someone who is shakier on it. The person who groks it less may be able to get to the answer, but needs to spend more time working through the problem. They're less good at calculus and should get a lower grade! Maybe they shouldn't fail Calc 101, but may deserve a B or (the horror) a C. Maybe that person will never get an A is calculus and that should be ok.

Joel Spolsky explained this well about what makes a good programmer[1]. "If the basic concepts aren’t so easy that you don’t even have to think about them, you’re not going to get the big concepts."

[1] https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2006/10/25/the-guerrilla-guid...

I think it depends on the company. I don't know how bad of a problem it is for big businesses like Amazon. Sure there's some lost profits and a write-down with the layoff, but it's not like Amazon hasn't been successful and profitable in the meantime. The overhiring may be justifiable as a defensive strategy.

I was at a smaller public company that overhired during COVID then struggled with profits (among other things). CEO and leadership lost a ton of money due to the share price drops from COVID peaks and CEO was ultimately pushed out.

To adopt a persona I don't care for - you can't vibe code taste! And the Sky has some history of good product taste/talent.

This probably played a role (cash out before bubble pops) plus the acquihire. OpenAI is building a try-everything-and-see-what-sticks product company on top of the model research lab so strong product teams are very useful to them.

ChatGPT Atlas 9 months ago

Yeah, it's weird, I want to use LLMs to automate the boring stuff! But it all requires MFA to login so it doesn't work.

OpenAI is making a wild number of product plays at once, trying to leverage the value of the frontier model, brand value, and massive number of eyeballs they own. Sora is just one of many. Some will fail and maybe some will succeed.

It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them. That what OpenAI is trying to do with Sora, and with Codex, Apps, "Agent" flows, etc. I don't think there's more to read into it than that.