pliny

The other side could be someone with natural exposure to the question that wants to hedge, for example people traveling to/from the middle east were exposed to the Iran war question(s) and could get insurance against airspace closure through prediction markets.

This argument doesn't work for 90+% of the volume on PM/Kalshi but I think most of the questions there are just gambling.

What was slow?

Everything, huge input delay in every interaction, clicking on anything, opening menus, typing, tabbing between windows, everything had 1-2s of delay.

disable variable refresh rate

I think I tried this but dont recall, there were a few things related to monitor refresh I tried that probably included this

I got a new computer a couple weeks ago, with a 5070, and installed ubuntu on it and it was incredibly slow. I looked online and found some claim that 24.04 has some incompatability with nvidia, tried installing a bunch of different driver versions and nothing helped, tried turning everything off in gnome tweaks and still slow, tried installing 26.04 and 22.04 but the installer hangs forever in both, tried linux mint 24.04 still slow, gave up and installed windows with WSL :/

I asked this (in a less accusatory tone) of an NSO employee once and he said something about how the big tech companies also spy on people and do unethical things.

There are already cheap, domestic robots for cleaning dishes, cleaning the floor, cleaning clothes, making coffee, heating and cooling food, turning screws, drilling holes and so on. All those robots represent a greater than 90 percent (and sometimes a greater than 99 percent) savings in time relative to doing the same tasks manually. You still have to move the objects they operate on around within your house but that's mostly the only part of the task you have to do.

All photographs or videos you have seen have been placed there for you to see them

The source of most of the videos from both sides is random social media users.

Even the videos and info from the IDF I would regard as credible, since they released similar videos and info from the Lebanon operation last year that was consistently corroborated by evidence from social media (there was no internet blackout in Lebanon so every IDF strike on an urban area had multiple videos from different perspectives).

The network Assaf got from founding and selling a big cybersecurity company and then being a VP-equivalent at Microsoft for 5 years (immediately before found Wiz) is more relevant than what he had from being an IC in the army 15 before that.

The purpose is to injure enemy combatants

For public companies you don't need a heuristic, as the balance sheet is included in quarterly earnings reports.

The price of the share stays the same but there are fewer shares, so the market cap would go down.

I saw a comment (not in the linked thread) that notes that the system prompt probably includes something along the lines of "You are a helpful AI assistant...", which does feel like a bit of a giveaway in the sense that there are many documents on the internet that discuss testing AI assistants and therefore a document who's topic is an AI assistant is likely to contain discussion of testing the assistant (and if the document is written from a first person perspective, of the assistant, then it's likely to contain text from the perspective of the assistant discussing it's own testing).

The secret challenge exists and it is the phone number / email address / VC account of CFO. If CFO wants to order EMPLOYEE to send money, then EMPLOYEE should only do the action after making an outgoing call to CFO.

This is a weird objection because if the expensive insulin did not exist (effective price = $inf) it would not apply.

This law was passed specifically to allow Aryeh Dery to ignore the terms of his plea agreement and serve as a minister. It's not related to the Jewish-Arab demographic balance (which, within the 67 borders, is about 85-15).

1. There seems to be some suggestion that X

2. ???

3. In no world can I imagine ¬X

launch scrubbed

Double quotes hasn't worked in a long time. It used to be the case that if you search "foo" "bar" it would only return documents that had the words "foo" and "bar".

I will frequently search for z foo bar z, get documents that have synonyms of foo and bar (and the synonyms will be highlighted in the snippet), then I will search "foo" "bar" and get the same documents except now it doesn't highlight the synonyms in the snippet. Maybe I am in some awful cohort where this feature is intentionally broken to see if it reduces engagement.

If you ask ChatGPT to compose a layoff email with a quote from MLK that is the quote it uses (ref https://twitter.com/mattstratton/status/1618018859763798016)

I don't understand the article:

Posted October 07, 2022

Subtitle:

  An IT outage hit the airline's check-in and boarding systems \*last month\*

  Aer Lingus is seeking compensation after an outage to its IT systems led the airline to cancel more than 60 flights \*last night\*.

Then later:

  The flight cancellations occurred on September 10

Given where the markets are today, Twitter is a ~$30B write down for him once the deal closes, so if he could pay $1B to make it go away he would have done so already.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/jury-rig

The difference is between something obvious and uninteresting (equity comp goes down when the value of the equity goes down) and something interesting and untrue (tech salaries are crashing). I get that post writer needs a hook in case they have something interesting to say about the equity comp situation (having read the article I don't think this is the case), but lying in the title to trick people into reading your article is still bad.

Why is using a token better than using money, in this case?

Electric radiators are quite cheap (they retail for less than $100), and homes in the cold parts of europe are typically well insulated, and if you bought a radiator for every person in the eu (0.5B * $100) it would cost .3% of europe's gdp ($18 trillion), or 5% of the eu's budget for 1 year. This helps reduce the reliance on gas for domestic heating.

when you pass an electrical current through a resistor you get heat.

you can read about this concept here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heating_element

If you want to compare grades across semesters you have to either keep the difficulty of the tests constant or adjust the grades to compensate for how difficult the tests were relative to previous semesters.

BTW, I don't know if it's a named fallacy, but saying "there's no rational argument for X" is not a good argument against X. You can't prove a negative so you cannot know if there is not a rational argument for X.

Negative feedback means dampening, as in the severity goes down after a shock. The term you're looking for is 'vicious cycle'.

He made those trades in late February, not late march, so if the result of those trades was net long he probably did worse than people who traded after hearing the announcements.

Why was your office getting so many bomb threats?

Voluntary attribution is a solved problem in cryptography, so you can stay private if everything goes well and prove you are the sender or receiver for a given transaction if you need it reversed.