mxkopy

I mean just from the above quote it’s clear he doesn’t trust them for “mission-critical” tasks. And I doubt LLms have evolved significantly from their stochastic parrot nature over the last few years

Accessibility, saving time, personal preference. Any number of reasonable things that don’t put undue stress on the host

You’re conflating being ghosted with ghost jobs, which are positions that are posted but are never intended to be filled (usually cited as for data collection purposes). These waste people’s precious time while they apply for jobs.

I love how the basic expectation of having a job and the life altering circumstance of not having one factors into this not even a little bit

This is what bugs me about the whole AI fanaticism thing coming from the top down, because what evidence is there that the AI labs aren’t going to try and eat everyone’s lunch after they’ve done whatever they need to developing the actual AI. We’ve already seen this with Gemini and OpenAI trying to eat video production and making workflows explicitly for that purpose, what makes people think that Claude isn’t going to do the same exact thing once they get bored of making models? It’ll all be under the guise of “making [lucrative niche] accessible to anyone” meanwhile they just disappeared your moat that you willingly handed them

Jesus the terminology is so fucked… compare the contents of this blog post with any RL paper containing the words “long term planning”…

It all makes sense when you realize QAnon basically runs the white house now. There’s a very insulated type of American who lives in their own world, that unfortunately lots of voters are apparently sympathetic to. It’s probably seen as a victory against the climate change hoax or something along those lines.

It’s a band aid solution because the model can get stuck in a refutation loop, where it argues a point by pulling up a contradicting source ad infinitum. The holy grail, which has not been yet reached, is figuring out how to dynamically align the model to be consistent with all the sources in the first place (and this is a problem of provenance rather than model design)

All of these advanced death machines need equally advanced supply lines and staging grounds, both of which would run through civilian populations. Look at Afghanistan as an example: with all the might of its war machine the US couldn’t kick the Taliban out, who we love to tout as fighting with sticks and stones.

In fact the only issue stopping a worker’s revolution in the US is the lack of organization. The technology factor is really small in comparison to the inherent asymmetry of the situation.

The attitudes aren’t 1-1 comparable. China is on a winning streak in terms of socioeconomic development, and AI is likely seen as merely a new technology in the context of the social contract. The US is going the opposite way, and people here view AI through the lens of oligarchy more often than not. I wouldn’t say that a lot of people feel as optimistic, even if they are actually more economically secure.

The false equivalence of emotional maturity with being able to chase production is really telling.

When people think of autonomous driving as a solved problem it evokes something very specific. It means vehicles can drive on their own, without guidance. Until you solve AVs you don’t have a claim to present whatever you actually have as such. There’s no “good enough” for AVs, you’ve either solved them or you haven’t.

I doubt we’d build anything IRL without understanding how it works first. And we’re pretty good at putting 2+2 together once we have the pieces, for a lot of these things we don’t even have those. After all AI can just explain it to us atp

So what, we shouldn’t even try? What is the point of this argument?

Financial incentives

It’s also a set of credentials, which might be immediately useful for one reason or other. All those other things you can do outside of a program, especially if you’ve already got the network or career trajectory to support it.

it suffered in the face of competition from cheaper, online brands such as Shein and Temu

And, you know. Being laid off seems part of the culture nowdays

OP says there are two futures, digital prostitution or slavery. If we truly believe that it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

On the other hand we could have Star Trek.

I find the insinuation that mental illness is a fundamental part of the human experience to be deeply revolting. There is no excuse for hoarders and rapists.

We could also literally have Star Trek. Think of all the scientific discoveries we could make if we had armies of scientists the size of our labor force.

But we will have to (painfully) shed our current hierarchies before that comes to pass.

This viewpoint is basically that there is no international community at all, and that’s a broader argument

You confuse nation state and people in this question. Yes the international community has an obligation to prevent genocide, and the destruction of a nation state if that coincides with the destruction of its people, but these things are not necessarily the same. The Security Council has no obligation to prevent a peaceful union of two states that would make one or both of them cease to exist. Nation states do not have rights, people have rights.

Nation states generally do not have rights.

Solutions to more actual problems are more expensive. It’s easier to ask millions of people for $0.01 than it is to ask thousands for $100. Things that are easy to sell to millions of people for $100 are rarely innovative (transportation, food, entertainment, etc), and if they are, they’re world-changing (cars, supermarkets, smartphones, etc).

They are saying coding agents are winning similarly to NNs and that’s what I’m pushing back on

I don’t think it could be the most important skill to have. The most common, and the most standardized one for sure, but if coding agents are doing fundamental R&D or running ops then nobody needs skills anyway.

As it turns out, neural nets “won”

The people who scoffed at neural nets and never got up to speed not so much.

I get the feeling you don’t know what you’re talking about. LLMs are impressive but what have they “won” exactly? They require millions of dollars of infrastructure to run coming around a decade after their debut, and we’re really having trouble using them for anything all that serious. Now I’m sure in a few decades’ time this comment will read like a silly cynic but I bet that will only be after those old school machine learning losers come back around and start making improvements again.

The market hasn’t been built out yet. There’s that post from a couple days ago where someone frontloaded the entire UX of an operating system onto an LLM, so you just tell the hardware what you want to do and it does it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47557165

The growth is there but it’s going to be a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t know why everyone’s in such a goddamn hurry all the time

I mean they did execute a wealthy banker a couple years ago. So I think the mercantile class occupies a different place in society there than in America

This is one ruling out of many, many of which directly benefit Trump. See Trump vs. United States 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States

There’s absolutely 0 reason to be optimistic towards a court stacked explicitly in his favor.

Eh I don’t think it’s something we can ever discount. Some cavewoman could’ve daydreamed the entire theory of general relativity in her own private language while weaving a basket and we would never know because she never felt the need to talk about it. On the other hand there are people today who will emit novels of profound nothingness.

Technology and language is sort of like speaking in this sense, it’s evidence of mind but it’s not mind. And the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence and all that

One thing I will give to them is the MSVC ecosystem. (Something something developers)

No doubt it’s starting to show its age but it’s like watching a lion die. Win32 amenities just being automatically available is quite sick and I wish there was something similar for Linux.

It’s like windows devs and users live in alternate realities, I’m sure a lot of cool things can happen if they bring some of that dev love over to their UX.