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jawilson2

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I think he's saying that if one company panics or fails, all of the other AI companies will quickly pull out, and it will be a race to not be holding the hot potato at the end when the bubble bursts. Lots of analogies there! This is where we get the phrase "the stock market takes the stairs up and the elevator down". It crashes quickly and hard, and can be triggered by one event.

Personal tutoring for standardized tests has diminishing returns compared to just grinding...

Eh, not so sure. My son got a 32 on the ACT the first time he took it, and after 4 months of private tutoring got a 35, with 36 on math. Could he have grinded himself and got there? Possibly, but I doubt it. Having someone who knows what they're doing and holding him accountable was invaluable.

This is going to screw me hard. I didn't make a meaningful income (>$95K) until I was 35, 10 years ago; I got a PhD, did a 4 year postdoc, and was an assistant non-tenure-track professor for 3 years. My monthly student loan payments were $1800/month. I changed jobs to HFT, and we have lived comfortably but not able to save much. I have 3 kids aged 17, 15, and 13, the oldest is applying to colleges very soon. 2 years ago I changed jobs again, and now make $700K on paper, but it is 60%+ bonuses, half of which is in a 3 year RSU. So, my take home pay is about $400K cash, taxed in a high bracket; I paid $145K or so in taxes this year. I have about $150K saved, $350K in 401K, and my mortgage is at $500K, with $300K to go. We are finally stable, e.g. we can take a vacation or 2, we can afford groceries without worrying, and can do travel baseball, but it also isn't an extravagant lifestyle or anything.

Now, this is a pretty phenomenal position to be in for most Americans, I can't complain too much. But, my oldest (white, straight, varsity basketball, 4.7 GPA, 35 ACT, 36 on Math) wants to go to a school like USC or Vanderbilt, and we will get 0 aid help. I refuse to let my kids suffer through student loans like my wife and I had to; at one point I made $2500/month as a postdoc, and $1800 went to loans while I had 2 kids under 2. My search history at that point was pretty grim, involving what circumstances life insurance would pay out, etc.

So, assuming all 3 kids go to a $100K/year type school, and we pay cash, that is $12 MILLION dollars over the next decade I will be paying (ignoring inflation, etc). This is the worst case, etc, but still bleak. And, apparently Stanford CS students can't get job offers, so they are entering a horrific job market. I don't think any college is worth that, not even Ivys, but not going to a good college is still worse. If I had a crystal ball 10-15 years ago, we would have left the country.

Same, I was born in '81, and JP is a cornerstone of my childhood, more-so than any other movie I can think of. I saw that movie at the theatre more than any other, at least 6 times that summer.

My favorite was at a drive-in in Kentucky. We used to rent boats at Lake Cumberland over the summer, and one night we watched JP at a drive-in. I remember the drive back to the dock late at night, driving through the woods, and imagining it was a Jurassic jungle. Then, back on the houseboat, going reading through my "Making of Jurassic Park" book with a battery operated book light.

98% isn't much 15 days ago

Ha, I had the same thought, if you actually know the history of Luddites vs the more colloquial usage of "someone who hates all technology."

I had the same experience, but with a strict keto diet, <20 net carbs / day. I started in 2014, and have maintained it more or less since. When I periodically stop it for a month or so, I get anxiety attacks, migraines, and obviously weight gain. So, I just don't stop it.

I don't understand why this is still confusing to people. The second "L" in LLM is language; these things are AWESOME at producing things that SOUND like language, including code. They have so much training data that it is almost always grammatically correct, and often makes sense. Extending this, it has obviously been trained on data containing phrases like "acromial undersurface" and "thin bursal fluid", and "coracromipal arch", in the context of shoulder injury and related imaging. BUT IT DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO DIAGNOSE ANYTHING. So, it SOUNDS like a radiologist or specialist, and might be in the ballpark of correct-ish-ness, but ultimately is a fancy Markov model.

That said, I think that the target audience for the DLC was always people who thoroughly played through the game.

That's true, but it is strange that you get there and get early-game upgrade materials, like Smithing Stone 2, etc. It seems like they wanted to emphasize that the Scadutree Fragments are the important things for scaling, and not your Base Game level, but you already have to be pretty high level and upgraded to beat Mohg.

Siri AI 1 month ago

My high school kid has a printed basketball schedule for this summer. I tried taking a pic with Siri to parse it and add it to the calendar with their visual intelligence thing or whatever. It can't do it. I had Claude parse the calendar picture and generate an ics file. Calendar on iPhone and on their website can no longer import ics files. This is like remedial AI functionality that probably could have worked 20 years ago, and it can't do the simplest most basic task.

I know that's the trend, but it is backwards to me. Like UDP vs TCP. If you need an immediate answer for something, why send a one-way communication where you have no idea whether the person on the other end A) received it, and B) acted on it. A 15 second phone call accomplishes this, whereas if I text you it could be hours, unless you immediately respond.

I've told people this for years. The mode of communication reflects the urgency. If you text me, expect a response on the order of 3+ days. If you call, and I recognize the number, it will be more urgent. If I DON'T recognize it, it goes to voicemail and back in the 3+ days queue. If you show up at my door, it is immediate. Even with my wife, she will text while I'm at the grocery to pick up some extra food items, and it doesn't necessarily come through or I'm on silent. I'll get home, and she'll ask where the food is, and I ask why she didn't call if it was timely. I just do NOT check my texts that often, it isn't because I'm deliberately ignoring anyone.

I'm 45, and my parents have been 2 of my best friends for about 15 years now. Probably not a coincidence that this corresponds to when I started having my own kids. I call and check in several times per week, even if it is just "hey, what did you guys have for dinner?". I hope my own kids, the oldest of whom is a year away from college, eventually feel like they can and want to do this too.

Well THIS is a bit prescient:

"Well, out of curiosity - how much did you lose?"

The Confessor seemed to freeze, for a moment. "What?"

"How much did you lose in the legislative prediction markets, betting on whatever dreadful outcome you thought would happen?"

I had to go see if this was written in the last month or so. It is from 2009.

Algorithms and models for a proprietary trading system? My personal notes? The latex text of my phd thesis?

I will go screaming and kicking and fighting into this dystopian nightmare post-privacy shithole world that so many people seem fine with. If I have to move off of every service or technology to maintain some semblance of privacy so be it.

If you are 3-400+ pounds, quickly shedding 100+ pounds makes exercising MUCH easier, and the accompanying loss in appetite will HOPEFULLY teach you better portion sizes. Countless morbidly overweight people have tried for years/decades to lose weight, without success, and GLPs allow them to bootstrap the process.

Yes, CICO, blah blah, but overcoming food addiction by asking people to eat less is like forcing a smoker who wants to quit to work at a cigar bar or something. You can't just not buy food, especially if you have a family you have to feed.

where the only turn off the Airpods max is their weird case

Trying to parse this...I don't have these, so I don't have context for what this could mean.

Very cool! I'm confused why you didn't link the video of Radiohead wearing all black and playing at MTV Spring Break :-).

I was VERY deep into Radiohead in college (early 2000s), and love all of these videos; I'm pretty sure I've seen that 2nd video footage around the time of the Kid A tour, but the dates are wrong. Kid A is probably one of my 5 deserted island albums.

I'd like to think that, I love this period from Davis, and love Hendrix, so it would have been great to see a collab.

In terms of communication, I am thinking of something like the musical equivalent to software design patterns, etc. I.e. imagine two devs are pair coding, one of whom has a CS degree from 2002 and one is skilled but self-taught. While working together, the first starts talking about observer or singleton patterns, which the 2nd has never heard of but has coded something 90% of the way there on intuition. There could be some friction as they establish a common language. (Yes, this is based on experience, with myself more or less on both sides of the exchange at one point or another).