epicureanideal

I’m kidding but.. it’ll be great if in 10 years we look back on this and your joke has become a prophecy.

If it happens, that’ll be proof enough for me that LLM assisted science is giving economic returns!

Based on my experience, even the models we have now are a huge benefit when properly used. And we probably have a decade or two of significant gains we can make just with harnesses, skills, heuristics, etc. even if no further progress were made on models.

Only the front matter of the 50 skills would be loaded, right? 40 MCP tools would be a much larger use of context, right?

The good news is if there are multiple frontier AI models from multiple countries with non overlapping sets of restricted answers, we can just use a couple of them to get open answers.

One way to make legal services more affordable and accessible would be to put the burden of ensuring the AI legal services are accurate on a private-public partnership with the government.

If a person using the service is given inaccurate legal advice and acts on that advice, the person can't be charged with a crime, can't be given any civil penalties, etc., as long as the law in question is non-obvious.

Obviously if by some exploit, some fundamentally obvious crime (murder, theft, obvious fraud, etc.) is said to be legal, that wouldn't apply, but of course the service should try to prevent those kinds of exploits anyway.

Could limit this to something like business regulations to begin with, or even specifically for small businesses, or contracts within some time limit and dollar amount that would otherwise be coverable by small claims court, etc.

I also wonder about JS only, Python only, etc models.

Maybe the future is a selection of local, specific stack trained models?

Does this possibly demonstrate the limits of usefulness of using LLMs to explore new ideas or predict things?

If that’s the ideal you compare your own life to, you will be unhappy.

Most people in this conversation on HN seem to just be talking about a regular house and a lifestyle that would’ve been normal for a manual laborer 60-70 years ago.

Thanks for sharing! Seems to show that both are doing poorly relative to earlier generations, and it doesn’t seem Gen Z is greatly (or much at all) outpacing millennials.

And to steel man your position, when the Russian revolution happened the bolsheviks promised peace, an end to the war.

Source for the latter occurrence?

And for a lot of AI transformation tasks, for a long time I've been using even clever regex search/replace, and with a few minutes of small adjustment afterward I have a 100% deterministic (or 95% deterministic and 5% manually human reviewed and edited) process for transforming code. Although of course I haven't tried that cross-language, etc.

And of course, we didn't see a massive layoff after the introduction of say, StackOverflow, or DreamWeaver, or jQuery vs raw JS, Twitter Bootstrap, etc.

Unless you're desperate to feed and house your family and anything that shortens your search by a day might keep a roof over your head?

In case someone at Anthropic reads this.. if you find some way to make software developer salaries go up as a result of using your tools, or find some way to fast forward society to that stage of the effect of AI, you’ll have a lot of fans, and even faster adoption.

It would be great if there was some internal “make this benefit Main Street and knowledge workers” department, helping find ways for workers or creators to capture the value of some of the increased productivity.

Although I tend to think we overwork the working class such that they have no energy to keep up their health, so this would basically be taxing them because they're poor in many cases.

Maybe so, but personally it seemed to be referred to as a "specification" or "spec" for a long time, and then suddenly around maybe 5 years ago I started to hear people use "PRD". I'm not sure what caused the change.

Absolutely. Imagine being able to look at 100 years of street view history, or several hundred, at some point in the future.

Yeah, it is over for several roles, especially frontend web development

Only if the front end was super simple in the first place, IMO. And also only for the v1, which is still useful, whereas for ongoing development I think AI leads people down a path of tools that cost more to maintain and build on.

It may be that AI leads to framework and architecture choices best suited to AI, with great results up front, and then all the same challenges and costs of quick and dirty development by a human. Except 10x faster so, by the time anyone in management realizes the mess they’re in, and the cost/benefit ratio tilts negative even in the short run as opposed to the obvious to engineers long term, there’s going to be so much more code in that bad style that it’s 10x more expensive for expert humans to fix it.

Success will be determined by personal brand, social media presence, social connections.

Always has been. (Meme)

Could this lead to more software products, more competition, and more software engineers employed at more companies?

Great idea!

And if needed, to actually swap defective landing gear parts to whatever extent possible. Maybe difficult or impossible with current aircraft designs, but maybe future ones could be designed with this backup option. Maybe a secondary landing gear insertion point or something.

Claude and other LLMs can be used through JetBrains, and the IDE provides a significantly better experience than VS Code in my opinion.

This has been my experience as well. So far, whenever I’ve been initially satisfied with the one shotted tests, when I had to go back to them I realized they needed to be reworked.

Get your domain names now! AI Slop Abatement, the major growth industry of the 2030s.

I agree, I’m just saying the extent is influenced heavily by the increasing availability of workers at the lower end of the automation distribution.

Baumol effects might have raised wages a bit, sure. How could the relative positions of these workers not fall as all these tech-enabled and scale-enabled neighbors come on to the scene?

Supply and demand? If the population of hairdressers was small, so they could charge more and more, then their wages could keep up as a percentage. And that would be possible if for example so many people moved into high productivity work that only a small percentage remained in low automation work. But if you have a constant influx of new hairdressers or a constant influx of people willing to do low automation work, that doesn’t happen.

What changes in your subjective sensation of your teeth with K2?

Let's ask an LLM as a test!

You may be correct, but I wonder if we'll see Mac Mini sized external AI boxes that do have the 1TB of RAM and other hardware for running local models.

Maybe 100% of computer users wouldn't have one, but maybe 10-20% of power users would, including programmers who want to keep their personal code out of the training set, and so on.

I would not be surprised though if some consumer application made it desirable for each individual, or each family, to have local AI compute.

It's interesting to note that everyone owns their own computer, even though a personal computer sits idle half the day, and many personal computers hardly ever run at 80% of their CPU capacity. So the inefficiency of owning a personal AI server may not be as much of a barrier as it would seem.