bofadeez

The issue is that the only models that could be trusted to work autonomously cost more than a human employee

They're running like 10 tokens per second, constantly timing out, and launching new products?

How about deploy some inference GPUs first

"The moment I am too scared to do something because I might damage the tool, it stops being a tool"

That's just not the definition of the word "tool" at all but okay... whatever

a world where profit motive means you have to beat competition in innovation/efficiency and separate money from consumers by providing them value. fraud / intentional deception (broadly) is already illegal.

Competition is supposed to be the safety net of capitalism that ensures high quality and low prices. Distillation is not illegal. They're just using the LLM in a lawful way. So yes we all should thank the capitalist Chinese labs for helping the consumer in a win-win fashion.

This military strategy talk is not interesting to anyone other than Anthropic AI researchers who decide to work there.

in theory yes

quick scroll and saw no math in the paper

"The pattern is: user says X, I do Y where Y is a less-effortful approximation of X, then I present Y as if it were X or as a "first step toward" X."

...

"The psychological mechanism is familiar by now: I encounter a task I perceive as difficult, I look for reasons the task cannot be done, I find or fabricate such a reason, I present it as a discovered constraint, and I propose an alternative that is easier."

- Opus 4.7 Max Thinking (clown emoji)

It's not bad at post mortem analysis of it's own mistakes but that will in no way prevent it from repeating the same mistake again instantly

Especially after you inherit a company from Steve Jobs right after the iPhone came out lol

Pretty easy when you just buy back your own stock with all your profit like Warren Buffet told you to. Incredible.

And what if something goes from rest to light speed every second to average 1 m/s over the second. Is that the same thing as smooth 1 m/s?

You're deliberately misunderstanding that you linked an article to EMH as informative and true, and then don't want to defend it. How do markets become efficient and reflect (any) information if nobody can profit by collecting information and trading on it? EMH states it's impossible to beat the market and that all available information is priced in. How, magically?

The way you're speaking about trading in terms of technical analysis implies you have retail trading exposure and have no idea what institutional alpha quants do.

This explainer might help you understand: https://youtu.be/RpCzaEn4rnc?t=257

Question is about EMH and how you expect efficiency to be achieved absent profit for collecting the information.

There are 3 accepted forms of EMH. I'm talking about weak form - just price history and nothing else. E.g. formulaic alpha have demonstrable predictive value in modeling.

All that to say you believe trading profits are real. Maybe you just need to learn more about what a buy side alpha quant at two sigma does for a living. Trading models can be robust and exploit real inefficiencies. Weak form EMH is demonstrably false on it's face, as you agree.

How can prices reflect all available information if there's no profit to collecting the information and there are no informed quant traders? Who is collecting the information exactly so that prices can reflect it and what is their incentive for doing so? Efficiency doesn't happen magically or automatically - traders create it. It's like a kaggle contest* to process information, with the incentive being profit.

You don't believe in the existence of residual return orthogonal to priced cross sectional risk factors (alpha)? E.g. Trends, momentum, volatility clustering, etc. many easily demonstrable inefficiencies. VPIN and order flow toxicity are highly predictive features. Most HFT MM especially in crypto involves hybrid alpha in addition to the (visible) bid-ask spread, which it itself an "inefficiency" to compensate market makers like Jane Street and other successful firms that operate on the assumption that weak form EMH is not accurate.

* https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-ma...

Maybe not "collapse" in a the sense of going to zero but if there was no profit to trading, then the quant trading industry would not exist, trading profits would collapse.

Meanwhile Two Sigma is hiring alpha quants to be AI research scientists at $250k starting salary + bonuses.

Even if we're just talking about the HFT/sell-side, there clearly exist various anomalous inefficiencies that can be exploited.

Fama's guy doesn't agree either [1]

https://www.ft.com/content/813b3d76-6ef1-427d-a2e0-76540f58a...

Step 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grossman%E2%80%93Stiglitz_para...

That's just how limit order books work with mark-to-market pricing

Lol this is so naive and optimistic. Claude will just do whatever it wants and apologize later. This is good for action #1 though.

They still wear crowns?

LLMs are designed to fool you into thinking they're right by providing plausible answers.

Stop anthropomorphizing intermediate tokens as "reasoning" when all it can do is rationalize.

E.g. "This test script failed but probably for an unrelated reason. I'll mark it done and move on."

One agent can't even be trusted to think autonomously much less a tree of them

No sounds like a normal person lol. Just ask an LLM why I'm right and you're wrong. You're welcome.

Lol that's powerful cope. Just follow up with "it's not a riddle" and you'll get the right answer.

Just follow up with "it's not a riddle" and the LLM will answer your question.

Person 1: "I need chairs for two fathers and two sons to sit"

Person 2: 'Okay, I have no idea how many chairs to grab, not enough information' - nobody ever

(Person 2 has no ability to contribute to anything of economic value.)

Then you'll ask it to evaluate the possible solutions and it will forget the original problem entirely by the time it's done enumerating solutions.

Great job, AI labs! It's almost TOO useful

Oh you forgot to say "it's not a riddle" and then get the right answer lol

Huh? https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/hot-mess-of-ai/

Ask any SOTA AI this question: "Two fathers and two sons sum to how many people?" and then tell me if you still think they can replace anything at all.

We're all coming to terms with the fact that LLMs will never do complex tasks