Daishiman

and if Anthropic hadn't released Fable, would we have Kimi today? If the answer is no, then I think that's still a very important point to consider.

That works both ways, competition and performance spur new developments. You don't think the American labs are looking at Chinese research on how to reduce compute per token?

I am as close to a fan of a clear backlog as it can be, but I would also say that an insufficiently deep backlog is probably a sign that you're spending too much on refactors and cleanups.

You're saying it in jest but this is closer to the right answer. Features make you money. A large enough project has an infinite backlog. You will be unlikely to make much money from clearing out your backlog.

Once the OpenAI/Anthropic-driven hype dies down people with decision-making power will be taking a look at the numbers and look at real productivity metrics. And they'll see it makes little sense to pay so much when competition is around and similarly good.

The difference is that Chinese companies and their government are much more intertwined than their American (or Western, in general) counterparts.

A very naive take that is trivially refuted when you look at the history of military contractors and how lobbying works in the US.

Military contractors, like banks and other pieces of corporate infrastructure, are extensions of the US government. They are beholden to profits first but US government interests as a really close second.

Bad offshore engineering teams may need that. The other teams that work as you should you just don't hear about.

Self-reported dietary information? Then garbage study.

Take this incel garbage back to 4chan.

Desalination solves water issues for tap water. Islands may be short on surface area.

I would also never use the word "solve", as this is just for human usage. The ecosystems themselves are irreversibly destroyed.

Islands are extremely vulnerable to climate change all over, as they are completely dependent in near-term precipitation for all their water (no rivers, no aquifers).

So most likely a combination of GLP-1s and lower drug overdose deaths.

I think it's a bit of an exaggeration. There's an interference effect but there's people who compete in natural bodybuilding that run marathons as well.

What's the reason for this? Publish-or-perish? Papers have to be more thorough? Extra junk tacked on for the sake of showing lengthier papers?

They have none. Google came to the same conclusion years ago.

Let's see how fast Chinese models would improve without access to latest US models and if they keep on releasing open models

Chinese tech has been on an exponential growth trajectory. If they see the need for AI superiority then there's really no moat for AI companies.

Then they'll outsource dev work to agencies that have no frills with it and move along.

Not gonna happen; the incentives for bypassing this are too high.

You don't trust the multi-billion dollar behemoth, but you trust the militarized multi-trillion dollar behemoth to play 'robin hood'?

Nobody's trusting anyone, we're just enjoying the benefits of true competition much like the working middle class gained benefits between the ideological competition of the Cold War.

I'm not really sure that I agree. The LLM paradigm basically allows for the same development techniques, for better or worse, but amplified.

So if you were lazily copying the first blog result in Google, getting the first answer from an LLM is equivalent, but the output is actually likely to be better.

If you wanted to do your research on various techniques and evaluate alternatives, LLMs can amplify your capacity to research and to have specific considerations for your specific problem.

LLMs aren't going to solve people's natural inclination towards laziness.

Additionally, while it's true that people may read and learn less about the "lower" levels of software plumbing, it enables enormous possibilities of higher level thinking that before were limited by the amount of manpower you needed.

For example, with LLMs I can try different test sharding strategies or trivially change from factories to fixtures in large test suites. This would have been busywork or drudgery; now I can evaluate several architectural solutions which would not have been possible before.

till I have the feeling that this only works because of the vast accumulated knowledge pre-AI

I'm not about to say that there's nothing new under the sun, but parsers are a really well-understood problem where 99.9% of people don't need frontier knowledge and wouldn't be in a position to use it anyway.

And I don't think that people doing research on parsers would ever rely on LLMs for precisely that reason. But we're not parser researchers right?

He's not apologizing for young energy. Young energy is a wonderful thing but without accompanying wisdom and restfulness for the vast majority of people is just spinning your wheels in place burning out and not achieving anything of importance.

I guess even an off hand example, now must be completely 100% technically correct , or you aren't worth a job?

It's a litmus test, and not a terribly challenging one. It's solved by spending a week doing simple coding challenges.

They are saying a very different, obvious thing if you don't want to be cynical. And I say this as someone with some very strong opinions about many things.

Because the most vocal rich people in this age seem to have an unusual lack of empathy and just being able to enjoy themselves.

Beg Gvir said that all of Lebanon must burn. Consider who is the real aggressor here.

In the places where famine remains a problem, it's due to political issues, not that we can't grow enough.

The political issues are still there so I really don't think we can call that a solved problem.

15 years ago things were quite different:

* There were far fewer tech billionaries.

* The tech billionaries were not publicly associating with far-right figures or cryptofascist belives, or at least were doing so quietly while promoting ideas of technology as social progress

* A lot of the tech startups were seen as fighting entrenched interests grounded in regulatory capture and people had the illusion that the next generation of companies supplanting these wouldn't succumb to the same factors.

* Donald Trump as a phenomenon of current politics did not quite exist yet, so we didn't have to witness these people sucking up to him

That's just for starters.

"Adverse events" is a BS term invented by people that are insufficiently knwoledgeable in the field to properly interpret the VAERS database.

If contamination has no effect, why does lard come with a transgenic warning on the packaging?

In my jurisdiction no such warnings exist. You should check what level of paranoia your region handles because it may be based on evidence or in scaremongering.

Why do large fish carry massive, measurable mercury traces?

Because large fish are apex predators and apex predators have always had a large amount of contaminants. This holds true now and throughout history, it's not a modern phenomenon.

By your logic, you could pour chlorine into a plant's soil, wait a week, and eat it without an issue because "contamination might not have an effect."

This is what happens with pesticides, we spray crops and then wait days to weeks for the offgassing or biodegradation. For the record continue to spray crops with water with human and animal feces for nutrition as has been the case throughout human history

futhermore, cattle are ruminants, pigs, chickens, and fish are not. they have a completely different digestive system that filters out significantly more toxins before they ever reach the meat, followed by pigs, chickens, and lastly fish.

You need to show some evidence of solid studies that show bioaccumulation of toxins because mechanistic effects (or your random theorizing as a layman) are not sufficient proof.

vitamin d supplements are not the same thing as getting direct sunlight.

You need to show proof of this.

also their food is mainly genetically modified. you know there are different kinds right? cage free, free range and pasture raised. which one do you think has the better nutrient dense meat and eggs quality?

You need to show proof that the nutrition profile is drastically better. Some free range food tastes different for sure but you need to show me that there's a large enough difference. I am not arguing about the ethics of modern factory farming though.

1. never ever go outside. stay indoors and only consume vitamin d pills 2 only eat ultra processed, genetically modified foods, and high sugar snacks 3. only use vegetable oils! never ever consume natural oils/fats 4. if you have a garden, pour chlorine on your garden vegetables and eat them a few weeks later. (if they survive it) 5. never fast. eat 6+ times a day to keep your insulin spiked at maximum capacity

I mean hundreds of millions of people do this and most of these things have been studied, quite literally to death.

* We know the effects of vitamin D supplementation (favorable compared to more than moderate sun exposure as direct sun exposure brings risks of melanoma)

* We know the effects of GMO: no known effects at all, no specific mechanism of action of because GMO is meaningless unless you can tell me of specific genetic changes that trigger the creation of some toxin in the target organism

* We know the effects of ultraprocessed foods: largely attributable to high palatability that leads of greater body mass and spikes in glycemic index if not supplemented with fiber or physical activity.

* There have been hundreds of studies on vegetable oils and not a single one has shown negative effects beyond what you might get from excess calories. Have you actually read these studies? You talk about "natural" oils, which is a completely meaningless term.

* The garden thing is a stupid analogy and dependent on the chemistry of whatever chemical in question you're talking about. You know that chemistry is an exact science and we can know empirically how different substances biodegrade right?

* Fasting has some marginal health benefits but is ultimately just a method of calorie restriction, which is healthy overall. No human randomized control trial has shown fasting to be better than alternative methods of dieting.

* Likewise, the number of times you eat does not have and known impact when you equate for calories.

A lot of people in the past few decades seem to have made a political dogma out of the inevitability of progress and attributing it to the "nature" of capitalism.

This should remind us that progress is very much a political choice and a confluence of factors beyond the specifics of the economic systems.