Articulate

How Much Glyphosate Do Farmers Use?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkRSV_mF7hw)

A few minutes after I posted that, I regretted that my comment focused on that. Krugman wrote another article implying that Bitcoins were "barbarous" and likened them to digging up mostly useless gold. I feel like he must think Bitcoin is serious because he is writing about it regularly- I wish I had focused more on his economic theory in my comment... maybe next time.

It is deplorable that he used the word "evil" to describe Bitcoin. He fails to point out that Bitcoin is a system and of course it is possible for individuals to use this system to achieve some personal nefarious goals; but we have literally watched banks knowingly gamble huge sums of money in the centrally banked system and the whole system came crashing down. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin will not allow a few major players to crash the system, and then use the government to bail it out... and as a side note the government doesn't ever bail anyone out, it leverages its authority to force taxpayers (today and future generations) to bail out a system so that it can maintain the status quo.

I think you are overlooking some serious changes to the way the Fed regulates the money supply in the last five years. They are printing over 85 billion dollars every month. The stock market is soaring... why? because the government is artificially controlling interest rates which makes the value of your dollars go down fast- so people are forced not to save their money in a bank account but instead put their money "into" the economy- wealthy people are putting it into hard assets, and people that don't have as much are dumping money into the stock market as a hedge that their savings is loosing value every day. The result is a market that looks like it is doing great but is quiet volatile itself.

I agree that we should be very careful to just suddenly start running around yelling "the sky is falling" but I have heard an economist at the Fed (during a banking townhall) say "We are in totally uncharted territory" referring to how they will pull back all of the liquidity they have pumped into the market.

As for your comment about the US government saying "Use US Dollars or else..." that may not be the way that it looks on the surface but the US Government is very heavy handed in how other countries are allowed to control their own currencies, how multilateral trade deals are written in terms that force other countries to give up control over their own monetary policy.

You are correct that individuals around the world views the US dollar as stable and prefer to keep at least some portion of their wealth in US backed treasuries- but I would caution anyone from thinking that this is a foregone conclusion.

The fed uses a few people to try and hit multiple targets all at the same time... they have to deal with a bureaucracy that favors age and longevity, they have political pressures (see the Greenspan article above), and they have to make certain that their decisions keep their institution (coincidentally not a gov't institution but a private company)alive. The Fed is first and foremost a US-centric org. Whereas cryptocurrencies use the global market to find their level- whatever people agree is the price is the price... set number of bitcoins, completely liquid, and can cross borders without blinking... making trade easier than has ever been imagined before.

Thanks!

Most people aren't willing to put a day and a price on their predictions. I will look forward to another post in two days of you either celebrating cause you spotted something, or explaining why your prediction didn't pan out.

Dang- their kickstarter video was so incredible that all I wanted was for this project to work. The letter they have does nothing to acknowledge the let down of the people, and didn't take responsibility... both parts of legitimate apologies.

I agree that knowledge workers will be more productive if they reframe their time spent working to match their ability to focus on a task, but the logistical challenges behind managing people who work in this way would be a nightmare- it is easy to say that you would only track outcomes; perhaps I am not visionary enough but I think that the challenge is far greater than the author suggested.

This commencement speech that he gave had a major impact on me http://www.radiolab.org/blogs/radiolab-blog/2008/jul/29/tell...

Well depending on your background, & education it may have felt dumbed down but I have a lot of respect for Robert Krulwhich his RadioLab co-host won a McArthur "genius" award, and they have done (in my opinion) an excellent job of bringing science alive for people that either don't have the aptitude or didn't cross paths with the type of people that can inspire you to learn more about the universe.

it hadn't even crossed my mind that it would be something that big... but now that you say that, I wish that it had been some gigantic solar-system sized being... now I am totally let down- damn you Robert Krulwhich... damn you.

You spend too long in the beginning talking about your shirt... I have to spend the first 45 seconds before you start posing problems that I may have that buying your shirt will solve. Your video is good, and you narrating and talking is good- but having a shirt that is soft isn't a big concern for me... you hit on some great points about wearing it multiple times.. want to know why I buy smart wool socks because they tell me that my feet won't stink if I wear them a couple of times in fact as far as I am concerned it is the only reason that wool is smart- because it fixes a problem of stinky feet. Good luck!

I didn't think he sounded like an addict at all just a person that is more like a light switch than a dimmer... as in he is either in-or-out and when he is out he is able to clearly spot the environment around him... like a fish that can finally see that they live in water. I really related to this piece.

I really like this post, but I think the take away from the Gambler’s Fallacy is something different... I think it says a lot more about causation. Like the reason it should land on red is because it landed on black before this... you were close with your examples but I think it really says something more about believing that the reason A is happening because of B when really it isn't that clearly linked.

How will this work in practice?

Great post! I hadn't realized the size of the decoupling on Android. I wonder if this won't ultimately result in the Microsoft Word problem where engineers kept giving people more and more options but ultimately the amount of choice decreased how fluent people were on the platform- will major decoupling have the same effect because there are so many choices of which apps to download/use?

I appreciate your point and over simplification doesn't make any argument better- but I have often heard the counter argument of "choice" as one that rationalizes horrific conditions. If the choice is between dangerous working conditions or a job that does not pay enough to give your children opportunities many (if not most) people will choose to sacrifice during this generation for the next, it is clear that the financial incentives for every group (manufacturers, laborers, and consumers) and yes standards of living are better but consumers at a minimum should be informed that their is a hidden cost to the cheaper goods... and that they could make different choices or pressure their companies to improve conditions.

It really is in the power of the consumer to force companies to change. The heads of corporations are required and expected to be seeking out the highest possible returns for their investors. If their competitors use foreign labor with very cheap standards then that company is at a disadvantage in the marketplace. Only when consumers take into account the working conditions of the laborers does the marketplace change and that empowers/forces heads of companies to change so that they can continue to bring maximum returns. Terrible tragedies like this have to be revealed thank you for brining this up.

I actually thought this was a rather profound way of thinking about that line "costs less than a cup of coffee" I used to work in public radio and this was a line that people threw in all the time and I always resisted using it. He hit the nail on the head when he said that this was a high bar to get over because I love my coffee so much that if I lay down to sleep at night and realize that I have not pre-loaded my coffee to be brewed in the morning, I will get out of bed and go through the long and loud process of grinding beans, cleaning out the pot etc. That is in part because I am a caffeine junkie but the other part is because I love the routine. I love the smell, I love the rush- I took it to mean that he is saying the 2 dollars you spend is only part of the equation and isn't a fair comparison to make to an equal expenditure-- he was just throwing out an idea... nothing to mock him over.

Taking video is a good first step because you are right then at a minimum the 100+ people that got wait listed can see but also the 1,000s if not 10,000s of people who didn't even know that was a talk they could go to it can now see it. The trick is making it findable- and as with all things digital how to transmit their information faster without the uhs, ahs, ums, laughter, pauses, too detailed explanations etc can be culled to speed up how quickly the critical information can be transmitted. Good work on capturing these talks, probably a thankless job that has helped make the world a more informed place.

That is a vast over simplification of what Yahoo is buying. They will get a lot more than advertisement space- they will get reams of user data, they will get the platform, and even as a "separate business" they can still place operational goals and shape the direction of the business model.

I quit using terms like "real job" and "real world" a long time ago (back when I was working as a deckhand on a ship). I don't like that it implies that you are doing something less- that other people are more legitimate because they are on the beaten path. Now I use the term "regular job" and "regular world". On another note, some people thrive in the solo-work arrangement. My creativity has soared since I quit having senseless meetings, or bureaucratic red tape to get through. Good that you recognized that you don't naturally build social networks- As my business has grown it forced me out to meet so many people that now I have reserved entire days to be back in my private office working alone- hoping I can tap into the creativity that comes from solitude.

With the title of this article I was ready to roll my eyes at some cheeky advice, but I was surprised that I have found this to be spot on. When your work requires any level of creativity pushing through it can often take triple or quadruple as long to finish it. Taking a walk or making dinner is often the best/fastest solution- hell most of my ideas hit me while cooking or jogging anyway. When I push through, that is when I do boring work that I throw away anyway.

This is a great article, I particularly like how you admitted your mistakes and then showed the level of analysis it took to understand how to make the data say something honest and useful. Very good work here- compliments for getting a critic to be an ally (the statistics guy).

You are totally right that it is incredibly hard to evaluate skills during a small in person interview. Interviews are about 40% evaluation of skill set and 60% culture fit. A lot of research show that a bad personality fit in a culture does more to damage output of a group than having a single stellar employee. By the time someone interviews you generally can get a sense for their skill set before they interview via their resume and then asking them to submit either previous work samples or by creating a skills assessment test. Other than that... it is really hard to evaluate people's inner skill set, work ethic etc.

I really think that a lot of the things you suggested actually come down to relationships- just because you "hold the rights" are you going to sue someone over $500 if they use it without permission? Are you really going to require contracts over those first projects where a client is trying out your services? I had aspirations of using a lot of these ideas when I started but ultimately I realized at the end of the day... the only thing that keeps my clients paying is our mutual trust. I would really struggle to ask for money up front and I think that it will really change the nature of my relationship with my clients.

I think you rightly point out that there is a lot of value that is under appreciated. Controlled schedules, steady pay, and being around people that build your skill set. Good article.

Am I missing something- I like that the blogs are in circles- kind of fun but does it help me find blogs I wouldn't find otherwise?

It is hard to know where to simplify- I think you did a great job of pointing out things that most people think are absolute requirements. We didn't start out thinking we had to do those things, we taught ourselves to do that and you rightly point out that you can teach yourself that you don't need that stuff. Getting rid of a car and forgetting the "need" to check in allows you to put your focus on things that matter.

I think you are spot on about this. I used to evaluate a day based on my ability to sell my services, but I have come to realize that this can kill good work. I just heard a very interesting quote this morning that is applicable to entrepreneurs "The planting phase lasts a lot longer than the harvesting phase, and if you think you are in the harvesting phase before you really are- you will not see the growth you think you deserve- which will kill your motivation." This is the same thing that your article was saying- find ways to progress.