Can We Predict Which Teens Are Likely To Binge Drink? Maybe

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/07/02/327726621/can-we-predict-which-teens-are-likely-to-binge-drink-maybe?sc=tw

by sizzle • 12 years ago

18 20 12 years ago

minimaxir• 12 years ago

A sample size of 700 is not sufficient to get a good conclusion given the incredible amount of variation in the source variables. (genetics?!)

spdub• 12 years ago

The SNR might be low, but that doesn't make it negligible.

hackuser• 12 years ago

Should we be labeling children (or anyone) as "binge drinkers", and taking action, based on probabilities?

I know the label is "likely binge drinker", but that's not much better and few will bother with the fine distinction. Will school authorities be biased against them, consciously or not (will they make the team? be trusted by the teacher? promoted to fast track?). Will they get jobs? Will law enforcement be biased against them? Their own parents? How will their classmates react? Will they have a social life on Saturday night? Will you let them date your son/daughter?

Worse, the object of the label, especially without a very strong sense of him/herself, certainly will not benefit from the label of, effectively, "genetically determined loser".

anigbrowl• 12 years ago

I was immediately reminded of GATTACA, which looks more prescient by the day.

watwut• 12 years ago

In all likelihood, they will be the ones to be punished if hidden alcohol is found, whether they drunk it or not. Everyone will assume it was them. I would also guess that they will be punished more severely then other kids for the same transgression.

prawn• 12 years ago

Even if you believe we have free will, algorithms might decide to steer your course anyway. Bit frightening!

dmourati• 12 years ago

I was a teenage alcoholic. I drank so much my parents got worried about my drinking and "bet" me $1000 that I couldn't go the summer after my senior year of HS without drinking.

I turned into the designated driver that summer and earned the $1000.

I'm drunk now, 20 years later, hanging out on HN looking at stories about teenage alcoholics.

walshemj4• 12 years ago

no offence if you could give up that easily I doubt you where an actual alcoholic

Rapzid• 12 years ago

I'm confused, is this about addiction or binge drinking? Is anyone who has the occasional big night out an alcoholic? The article seems to be using the two interchangably.

herghost• 12 years ago

The problem with the term "binge drinking" is that it's a political term rather than a medical one. It's used almost exclusively to push an agenda - and gets redefined to meet the needs of the user.

walshemj4• 12 years ago

yes in the UK it tends to be poor working class out for a night out "binge drinking" ironic as the HOC has so many bars open all hours.

ycaspirant3• 12 years ago

Yes, this is also my primary confusion. What does the term ``binge drinker'' mean? I've never heard of this term so I have no idea what it means or how it should be used. I'm guessing it refers to someone who is addicted to binge drinking, but in that case they might as well use the term ``alcoholic'' which would be far less confusing.

walshemj4• 12 years ago

Well this is an American organisation :-) an expat mate of mine who worked for Citi said that if he wanted a pint at lunch time he went to the other side of town as if he had been seen people would have started leaving AA leaflets on his desk.

I remember talking to a trainer who gave training for managers on dealing with employees with substance abuse problems his comment “its the ones that have multiple stashes of vodka hidden at work that have a problem not social drinkers”

gadders• 12 years ago

If Nationality=British then Status="Binge Drinker"

Apologies if my pseudo-code isn't sufficiently C/Scala/JS like.

walshemj4• 12 years ago

yeh it's very cultural UK or European Alcohol consumption makes a lot of American think we are all borderline alcoholics.

And unfortunately in the USA there is the sectarian (religious) aspect to this.

motters• 12 years ago

They've missed the elephant in the room. From having once been a teenager I can say with confidence that peer pressure and general social expectations about what is or is not normal to be doing on Fri/Sat nights is a huge factor (or at least it is in the north of England). Adults are doing it and so when you're in the 16-20 age range there's a lot of social pressure to "be a man", to be able to drink more pints than your friends, "build up your drinking stamina" and so on.

ycaspirant3• 12 years ago

I'm curious to know how ``binge drinking'' is defined for the purposes of this study. According to them, it seems that some people as ``binge drinkers'' and some are not. I've always thought of binge drinking as an event rather than a personality type. When I was in college, I used to engage in binge drinking quite regularly on weekends, but I would not have described myself as a binge drinker. Actually I'm not so sure of that, because I have no idea what the term ``binge drinker'' even means. Perhaps it means something like ``alcoholic?''

jimcsharp• 12 years ago

I've always used vomiting as a threshold for irresponsible, binge drinking.

ycaspirant3• 12 years ago

Is ``binge drinker'' a synonym for ``alcoholic''? If not, what's the difference?

szatkus• 12 years ago

From wikipedia: "Binge drinking or heavy episodic drinking is a modern epithet for drinking alcoholic beverages with the primary intention of becoming intoxicated by heavy consumption of alcohol over a short period of time."

So there's some difference.

Can We Predict Which Teens Are Likely To Binge Drink? Maybe

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