Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=12054

by ColinWright • 12 years ago

51 12 12 years ago

n2yo.com

hartator• 12 years ago

Do we know where is it gonna to crash?

ColinWright2• 12 years ago

Short answer - no. This is a completely uncontrolled "re-entry" and no one knows where the pieces will end up.

ChuckMcM• 12 years ago

In a general sense, no. However once its orbit decays to the point where friction with the upper atmosphere can impart a couple of kilonewtons of delta-v you can then create a probability ellipse and lay that on the globe. One of the interesting confounding factors is how much "side" force (perpindicular to the orbit) is created by the various parts sticking out burning up. A satellite where its appendages burn off cleanly quickly becomes ballistic and its impact point is fairly tightly constrained, one which still has onboard propellant will sometimes get a kick in some random direction by that tank exploding, and satellites which, in their deployment configuration, are prone to spinning, can be spun by atmospheric re-entry to the point where they are ripped apart by the centripetal forces generated. But even in that case, the things that are likely to make it all the way to the ground (like tungsten fuel tanks) are pretty small and constrained again by the ballistic footprint from where it started.

From a pure statistics point of view you can say "in the water" and be more likely correct than incorrect. If that helps.

Gravityloss• 12 years ago

The link leads to a page that tracks the international space station. As far as I know, it's not going to come down for years, if not decades...

dTal• 12 years ago

The site now has an infobox stating "It has been reported that COSMOS 1220 has reentered the atmospehere [sic]".

No other reports that I can find, but this site[1] seems to have a lot of good info. Oddly, I get a completely different orbital inclination when I click on "To see where this object is expected to fall click here." (and, rather alarmingly, an impact site next to me) The main page and NORAD both agree however that it's currently still in orbit and currently somewhere around Cape Horn.

It's hard to tell whether a particular map is using live data or extrapolating a stable trajectory. At this point I imagine there'd be a large discrepancy.

[1]http://www.satview.org/decay.php

phest• 12 years ago

Here's the forecast:

http://www.satview.org/spacejunk.php?sat_id=12054U

joliv• 12 years ago

Well, that's the ISS. Here's the link to the ACTUAL decayed satellite (COSMOS 1220): http://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12054

ColinWright2• 12 years ago

Yes - same satellite number, your link includes the word "satellite," and it appears that the site defaults to the space station if you do something wrong, with no indication.

Very helpful.

The site also thinks it's now decayed or re-entered and no longer actually plots the track. Which is a shame.

flibertgibit• 12 years ago

Here is the last spot tracked: http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=12054

baking• 12 years ago

So Saudi Arabia? Edit: Or Europe or the South Pacific depending on which website and where I click.

lelf• 12 years ago

http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=12054U

daniel-cussen• 12 years ago

It's just taking a close-up.

Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today

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