When space weather attacks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/13/when-space-weather-attacks/

by stevewillows • 13 years ago

37 11 13 years ago

washingtonpost.com

stephengillie2• 13 years ago

Off-topic - Why is the top 1/3 of this page blank whitespace?

mparlane• 13 years ago

It's not for me.... check your adblock or extensions aren't filtering some div?

jrockway• 13 years ago

"it could leave 20 million to 40 million people in the Northeast without power — possibly for years"

Want to make a bet? If 20 million people are without power 2 years after a "space weather event", then I lose the bet. Otherwise, I win. (Considering how fast Cuomo was going to revoke the LIPA's charter because of their slow repairs after Sandy, I'm guessing someone will figure out how to replace a few transformers quickly.)

As for the flight diversions, I read that as, "if we had better warnings, we could just cancel the flight rather than use more fuel to stay within non-skywave radio range". Great! (Why do they use HF, anyway, and not satellites?)

jacoblyles• 13 years ago

I've been reading over-the-top warnings about this kind of thing for more than a decade. Hasn't happened yet. People have an overactive imagination for the apocalyptic.

stephengillie2• 13 years ago

Chicken little secretly wants the sky to fall.

pyre• 13 years ago

Are you claiming that something is impossible, or will just never happen based on the fact that it "hasn't happened yet?"

dangrossman• 13 years ago

I'm guessing someone will figure out how to replace a few transformers quickly

Or those people will move somewhere that wasn't affected. Even if it means leaving a house behind and declaring bankruptcy, you won't just sit somewhere with no power (and thus no employers, compromised food supply, etc) forever.

brownbat• 13 years ago

High-impact low frequency stuff is always hard to discuss, it always devolves into two camps accusing each other of exaggerating or understating the danger.

One of the more productive approaches you can take to sidestep all that is to look at mitigation strategies that help against other types of harm. So, sure, putting every long line in a Faraday cage is probably a waste of money. But it wouldn't be a bad idea to make sure there's some sort of ready supply of large transformers.

The major transformers aren't just costly, they have a long lead time, and there are a handful of unlikely events that can wipe a lot of them all at once. (And some more likely events that take them out a few at a time.)

One complicating factor is that for every 10 transformers, there are probably 9 designs, you pretty much design these things from scratch each time.

Some manufacturers can repurpose pre-owned transformers... it's not cheap, but it might be faster than building a new one from scratch. The biggest obstacle to that approach is just knowing what's out there to be repurposed.

NERC's trying to maintain a spare equipment database to help the industry figure that out, but it's voluntary, so it's not clear how comprehensive it will be.

I thought there was a mobile transformer supply being maintained by the industry too, but can't find reference to it at this time... maybe the spare equipment database is as far as they've gotten.

NY Times coverage of a quick transformer replacement drill last year: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/energy-environmen...

DOE paper on large power transformer replacement hurdles: http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transform...

NERC's outline for the spare equipment database: http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/sedtf/SEDTF_Report_Draft_PC_Meet...

If generators get knocked out, maybe get one of these Russian nuclear power stations to float by and hook up to the grid: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_...

ChuckMcM• 13 years ago

This is the rub isn't it. If you are a public utility and you have a dozen brand new transformers sitting in a warehouse you've never used, it can be presented as a 'big scandal.'

That said, while the typical production of things like transformers is long (since the manufacturer is optimizing for the maximum of the materials and warehouse space) emergency manufacturing is "fast" (as in start today and in a month we've got the raw materials, and 14 days later the first transformer comes off the line and they keep coming as long as we feed them materials).

Will it impact everyone horribly? Sure. Will it be expensive and disruptive? That too. But we have proven that given the incentive to do so, both the US and Chinese manufacturing sectors can do extraordinary things.

So given that, nobody is willing to spend the money to look "prepared" if the "event" isn't going to happen while they can still take credit for it.

jzs• 13 years ago

I'm getting a bit fed up with US media. Calling a natural occurring phenomenon an attack is just fear mongering. Is it time to bring out the tinfoil hats ?

That being said it's an interesting topic which certainly needs more research. Some of us would certainly be without jobs if the power network went bust :)

krapp• 13 years ago

Calling a natural occurring phenomenon an attack is just fear mongering.

You're being too literal. It's just a callback to the titles of old sci-fi and action movies.

When space weather attacks

Related Stories