Declining America

https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2026/05/19/Declining-America

by AndrewDucker • 2 months ago

384 121 2 months ago

Elections have consequences.

jmclnx• 2 months ago

yes and the results and actions taken after the Nov 6 US elections may undo some of the damage. But no other country will ever trust the foreign policy of the US no matter what happens.

sscaryterry• 2 months ago

This. Once bitten, twice shy

rockskon• 2 months ago

Never say never.

Germany seems to have recovered quite a lot of trust following World War 2, to provide an extreme example of bad foreign policy.

dyauspitr3• 2 months ago

I don’t think November 6 is going to be a reprieve. They have rigged the system so much that I don’t think it’s actually possible for the Democrats to make a comeback.

HerbManic6• 2 months ago

There is the military saying "Once is an accident, twice is an attack", this is how a lot of folks see it.

I think it is deeper, that these actions were taken at the top and a sizable amount of the people sided with them, that sends the message that the US cannot be trusted long term, it has become cultural. I get that it isnt a majority of people but it is big enough that it cannot be ignored.

baggachipz• 2 months ago

yes and the results and actions taken after the Nov 6 US elections may undo some of the damage

You're assuming that 1) the elections will actually occur on Nov 6, 2) the elections will be fair, and 3) that the winners of said elections would take action and actually enforce the rule of law.

I'm not confident in any of those.

hattmall5• 2 months ago

Really? Like Italy, Germany, Japan, etc can be trusted but after, I'm not even sure what exactly, the US is fully and forever untrustworthy??

cyanydeez• 2 months ago

no one thought the consequences would include giving 1.8 billion dollars of American taxes to the people who tried to violently overthrow the government and to those who are successfully leading a bloodless coupe.

Well, most people, obviously.

GolfPopper3• 2 months ago

The election outcome itself was the consequence of gross, systemic failure throughout the entirety of the United States' citizenry, society, institutions, and government.

The best thing for the States to do at this point would be to hold a Constitutional Convention and dissolve the government of the United States as unfit for any purpose, after which their citizens can decide how they wish to proceed.

zulux• 2 months ago

Not an easy idea when about ten states have enough nuclear weapons to glass the earth.

hattmall5• 2 months ago

Damn, a few years of Trump and your solution is to dissolve the US? Really?

prewett2• 2 months ago

Have you seen countries without a government? The US government is definitely fit for purpose. It successfully keeps order, for one thing. The government in a representative government isn't the problem, the people are the problem. In this case we have an intransigent Left and an incompetent Right wanting not-Left. Both sides want to "win", and in that situation, everybody loses. I think the ancient Greeks called this "stasis", and if the polis couldn't get out of stasis, the state failed. I believe the failure modes were either getting conquered or getting a tyrant. But we could choose to work together.

gmuslera• 2 months ago

Even not participating in elections have consecuences, at least for proper democratic countries.

But in countries where participation is mandatory, at least you can say that most of the (national) negatively affected people got what they voted for.

For improper "democratic" countries where elections are rigged or participation is biased towards some population sectors in a way or another, they are not really elections by the population.

jonahbenton2• 2 months ago

No, not this story.

This story is that of Netflix' Chaos Monkey attacking the state most rhetorically aligned/proud of The Rule Of Law and showing in myriad ways how absolutely hollow that pride was and how vulnerable The Law is.

Are these bugs that get fixed or...if that was The Last Election, maybe not.

throwawaypath3• 2 months ago

Pushing an unpopular platform loss after loss also has consequencess.

fuddle• 2 months ago

TIL a new word - "boosterism"

profsummergig• 2 months ago

Serious questions:

1) I use "socials" anonymously. Have anon accounts on X, IG, FB. If asked to disclose them at the border (am US citizen, but it's happening to them too), do I disclose the anon accounts?

2) Nothing too controversial in my "socials" (I'm careful), but there's still stuff there that could embarrass me (e.g. mocking or abusing people on X). What would happen if I scrubbed my socials before a trip? Would they be able to find out that I scrubbed, and then construe something about me?

3) Relatedly, is there a recommended way to scrub one's socials?

4) Is something like HN considered part of "socials"? I assume Reddit is. So HN must be too? I've had multiple accounts on HN over the years (been serially banned until I stopped leaving controversial comments). What am I expected to do in such an instance? Do I disclose all the HN accounts?

5) Relatedly, I have multiple X accounts (squatting on usernames). Do I disclose all the accounts?

stop50• 2 months ago

1. If you don't and they find out, then you committed an felony. It is the same as the "Are you an terrorist?" questions. Once they want you for more serious stuff like blasphemy against king donald, then they can pull out the convicted felon card and increase the sentence.

2. + 4. It depends

3. If you plan to go to the us while Trump and his chronies are in an position of power, then the best way to scrub them is not to post it.

5. See 1. if you don't disclose all, they can pull the lie on a form card

jamie_ca• 2 months ago

My understanding is (1) yes. (2) maybe, maybe no, depends on if they're looking up people tagging you in threads? If there's signs you're scrubbing yourself out of politically controversial threads that might become problematic. (4) yes, yes, yes. (5) yes.

Assuming they do ask in the first place.

hattmall5• 2 months ago

No, if they ask just give them the handle of any accounts that are currently on your phone. Just remove anything from your phone or computer if you think it might be an issue, like if you are sharing ISIS videos and stuff. As a citizen you don't have to do anything, but if they ask and you don't let them look at a device they can keep it to inspect it and let you go.

GJim2• 2 months ago

Just remove anything from your phone or computer if you think it might be an issue,

Read this line back to yourself a few times.

Now tell me where your democracy went.

gib444• 2 months ago

"anonymous" should be quoted too, unless you're a flawless security expert?

Have you only ever logged onto them on burner devices / qubes and over eg Tor?

yearesadpeople• 2 months ago

It would appear rage has well and truly been bated. My word.

breve• 2 months ago

Bated means the opposite of what you mean.

HerbManic6• 2 months ago

Yeah I usually expect better of the comments here but it looks like a nerve has been hit.

gortok• 2 months ago

The comments on this HN post nicely color the problem Tim points out, from the comments that assume the exceptionalism of the USA, to comments that say “stay in Canada”, to comments that call the post “moral preening”.

I grew up in a very conservative household, and until the tea party/Trumpian alliance would have called myself a small-l libertarian.

Now? I won’t vote republican for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is that it rhymes with the worst parts of the political parties we destroyed in world wars.

There’s something new almost every day that should, in a sane culture, cause folks to abandon the Republican Party en masse. Today’s example? The 1.776 Billion “anti-weaponization” fund that is a slush fund for Trump and his allies, including folks that stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The grift of this administration is shocking, but the fact that rank-and-file conservatives aren’t abandoning it by the millions gives away the game. It isn’t about principles, it’s about one party winning, no matter what.

We used to fight for what’s right, but we have become the villain. Tim is right about the declination of America (realizing his title is a double-entendre), and I can’t help but wonder if there is even a line that Trump could cross to the modern “Republican” party.

HerbManic6• 2 months ago

I said in another response, Trump has shown the cards to world that there is a sizable portion of the country that can not be trusted. Other nations have realised this is an embedded problem and cannot be fixed with another election. At least not on a long scale.

alchemism• 2 months ago

Not a dissimilar state of affairs from the 1820s. It took 40 years more for that disagreement to come to a head.

WarOnPrivacy2• 2 months ago

I won’t vote republican for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is that it rhymes with the worst parts of the political parties we destroyed in world wars.

As a former right winger, now recovering conservative, I'm inclined to agree. The greater issue for me is the right became every single thing they accused the left of (being easily hurt, mandated viewpoints, group think).

It's all the natural progression of the animosity campaigns Newt Gingrich launched a generation ago. ref: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/662/where-there-is-a-will/a...

insane_dreamer3• 2 months ago

Yeah, setting policies and even cultural differences aside, the level of blatant corruption in this administration is simply beyond the pale. In any other western country, this admin would have been gone by now.

And there's so much of it that it's almost become the norm. It's shocking that anyone -- no matter their political views -- can continue to support that.

We literally went from "drain the swamp" to "fill the swamp"

I honestly do not want my kids to grow up in this country. Which is too bad because it has a lot going for it otherwise. I'm actively looking for an exit strategy.

atoav3• 2 months ago

The one truly astonishing aspect in US politics for my european mind is the degree to which many US voters appear to have given up their agency in favour of party loyalty.

Some may think supporting their own party no matter what is a smart move that will let them win, but the only thing it achieves is that the party can now stop representing your interest. One of the few levers you have as a voter is the threat of not voting for a party or even voting against them. By swearing blind loyalty no matter what, you're giving up that single lever you had. The power of a voter isn't to vote people into office, it is to vote them out of it.

Trump has seen time and time again that he can promise X and then get away with doing the polar opposite of X, just because Republican representatives and voters think towing the line is more important than everything else.

In an actual democracy the politicians are afraid of the voters, not the other way around.

candu• 2 months ago

As a Canadian / American who now lives in Europe: IMHO the two-party system and current constitutional structure in the US is an unfortunate local maximum.

It was very definitely better than the centuries of militaristic monarchic feudalism Europe waded through from medieval times until the mid-1900s. It is very definitely worse than modern pluralistic coalition-based democracies with proportional representation, which offer a wider range of choices to voters, and make it possible to launch competing parties / movements to counter institutional stagnation.

Until recently, the one counterargument I would hear to this second assertion is "but coalition governments have a hard time getting anything done". Now that we see a prime example of a government that alternates between a) not getting anything done and b) getting things done that belong somewhere in a timeframe from the 1890s to the 1940s, I no longer hear people making that counterargument.

Re: constitutional structure, one Irish friend I have made an interesting point: in his lifetime, there have been many changes and amendments to the Irish constitution. This is next to impossible in the US system, both because of the party loyalty dynamic mentioned above _and_ because of the incredibly high procedural bar to doing so. (And not least because of the current predominance of originalist thinking in the judicial branch, as though the constitution were an infallible document handed down from gods among men, eternally to be interpreted as the Founding Fathers intended back over 200 years ago in a completely different social, political, and technological context.)

array_key_first• 2 months ago

From an American perspective, it's because we have no choice. What you have to realize is that, in the US, third parties do not have a foothold.

Yes, we can vote third parties, but this point always comes up at the presidential election and by then it's too late. If I just vote third party, that's how people like Trump make it to office. What we need is third parties to rise up naturally through local and state politics. Then, and only then, can we humor it at a federal level.

The main issue is that Americans are just not involved enough in local politics. Most Americans only vote during the federal elections.

jonahbenton2• 2 months ago

Can't believe this is flagged. As a USer, it is the letter I would advise anyone outside the US to write. It is the only rational response.

THIS IS NOT A PLACE OF HONOR.

timbray• 2 months ago

My pieces usually get flagged. Presumably I have annoyed some of the wrong people.

defrost4• 2 months ago

Good line to save for the epitaph shortlist.

piloto_ciego6• 2 months ago

I'd like to say that as an American to your north, I think you're right to not come? Things are weird here presently, so I suspect you probably made the right call for a wide variety of reasons.

But also, I tire of the nationalist rhetoric wherever I see it. I'm tired of this idea that countries are anything more than a shared historical hallucination, and that we're all somehow different from one another. Or as my father often put it, "we all bleed red and we all shit brown." I never chose to be born here, and because I am sick (through no fault of my own) so called tolerant countries wouldn't have me. So I am stuck here.

Regardless, I get why you didn't come, I can't say I blame you, but I also am sick of these damn countries ruining things. Perhaps we should abandon the idea entirely and replace it with the spirit of brotherhood and respect for one's fellow human.

insane_dreamer3• 2 months ago

Keep at it.

jay_kyburz• 2 months ago

I think its funny that the top comment on the blog from ConcernedCitizen is a half troll, half serious, in exactly the same way Trump approaches everything.

Do you think they are trying to do a Trump voice as a joke? I can't even tell anymore.

vogelke• 2 months ago

Probably. As an American, I have to agree with you -- it's been the case for many years (WAY before Trump) that within 50 miles of our border, your rights go to wherever last year's snow went.

It's too bad so few people can say "My country, if right to be supported, if wrong to be corrected."

georgemcbay• 2 months ago

Can't believe this is flagged.

On Hacker News? I can. I'm surprised it got unflagged.

As a USer, it is the letter I would advise anyone outside the US to write. It is the only rational response.

Seconded.

I'm a US citizen and fully support any person of any country that protests the Trump administration in any form.

joshka• 2 months ago

I think this belongs on hacker news (and unflagged) mainly because of who Tim Bray is. Notably co-inventor of XML, worked on a bunch of web standards etc.

Whether you agree or disagree with non-US citizens coming to America to engage in the advancement of technology, the important thing is to have discourse on the topic. That is in line with aims and goals of this site. This story is much less politics and much more about the impact of social policy on technologists.

As a non-US citizen myself but who has lived there for some time, I find that having and expressing an opinion on things like this is difficult due to the danger of such retaliation mentioned during border crossings and my daily life.

WarOnPrivacy2• 2 months ago

I think this belongs on hacker news (and unflagged) mainly because of who Tim Bray is.

A vouch option for Flagged submissions would be appreciated. I wonder if it used to be there but was removed.

Freedom2• 2 months ago

I spoke to a few HNers who I know flagged this post. They mentioned that they flagged it because it goes against the HN guidelines - a holy grail of sorts - and that the post does not invite "curious discussion". When prompted, they mentioned they would much rather read about pro-Musk technological exploits than anything against the US.

AnonC• 2 months ago

A vouch option for Flagged submissions would be appreciated.

AFAIK, upvoting a flagged submission cancels out the flagging to some extent. I don’t know the internals of how this process works. I’ve upvoted the submission in an effort to get it unflagged (it still may not get to the front page or may rapidly drop down though).

atoav3• 2 months ago

As another non-US citizen I feel similar. My profile as a maker and software dev with extensive infrastructure knowledge should be exactly what the US is looking for, but I already decided the US isn't a country I am going to police my own speech for.

First watching the tearing up of the societal contract in the US over the past decades turned this into a country that feels like it is on the brink of a collapse. No longer can regular Americans rely that working hard will give them a good or even decent life. This means intense pressures are at work with some very desperate people, bringing out the ugliest (but also sometimes the most beautiful) bits of humanity, all while you have richer folks at the top who act like how their country operates at large is none of their business as long as there is a cut in it for them. Why should I care about the US if you guys don't even care about it yourselves?

Second the US is highly unreliable. Laws, democracy, human rights, treaties, consumer rights — all are treated as negotiable, optional things that you use against your enemies and ignore when it affects your own. With enough money everything can be bent around. There are no principles at work that one could rely on and that is no foundation to build a life on unless you are literally ready to join the ranks of people acting like cartoon villains — something only people do who have no self-respect for their limited time on earth.

Yeah, I don't see myself even visiting the US in my lifetime.

RetroTechie• 2 months ago

First watching the tearing up of the societal contract in the US over the past decades turned this into a country that feels like it is on the brink of a collapse.

Hehe, reminds me about a video I saw some years ago.

They asked ordinary citizens what a reasonable distribution of wealth should be. Like the share of overall wealth owned by the richest 10% (or 1% or whatever), vs wealth owned by the rest of the population. Let's call this ratio "X".

Then those citizens were asked what they thought the wealth distribution was actually like (let's call that "Y"). No surprise: people thought wealth was much more UNevenly distributed than it should be.

Then they showed what the distribution was like in reality (let's call that "Z"): way more extreme.

So, wealth distributed way more uneven than people thought, and that in turn way more uneven than what people thought it should be.

That alone explains a lot of what's wrong with the US imho: broken/corrupt politics, outsized influence of tech bros (including outside US), a health problem bankrupting people, people turning to drugs, a militarized police force, incarceration ratios, homeless epidemic, etc etc.

Especially in a highly developed country where total wealth is enough to have everybody live comfortably & care-free.

As opposed to some poor war-torn country where wealth is also unevenly distributed, but it's obvious and everybody knows it. And overall wealth is a lot less to begin with (so people being desperate isn't surprising).

US' downfall turning it into a banana republic, its erosion of democratic institutions, human rights etc, is a logical result from the above. I'm not expecting that to improve sadly :-(. Things will probably get worse & there will be blood in the streets.

_as_text• 2 months ago

damn, the rhetoric in this thread put out by (I presume) Americans is like in 2006 when I got my first Neostrada and I first joined Mac vs PC wars

dont mean to offend, just didnt realize things were this rabid over the big pond

bakies• 2 months ago

have you seen our leadership?

atoav3• 2 months ago

Yep. If you want foreigners to contribute to your country, you may wanna avoid electing a known geriatric narcissist that has the impulse control of an angry toddler and creates a huge cloud of unpredictablity.

Not that US borders were predictable before that men came into office. But when I enter the EU or Japan for example I have fundamental trust in the fact that even if I was not a citizen, my rights would be clear and not violated by some lunatic border officer that had a bad day. Being expected to disclose your social media accounts while them potentially holding you for weeks without any reason? Nah thanks.

When I was traveling on the Balkans a decade ago I also had weird border encounters, with Serbian officers expecting bribes. I felt safer there than the expectation of crossing into the US makes me feel. Don't eant people with half a brain coming over? Then we don't. Your choice.

metalman• 2 months ago

Clever.Concise.Spoken like a true Canadian. As someone with dual Canadian/US citizenship, I cant imagine going to the US anymore, the politics and foriegn policy/wars were never good, but a lot of Americans are good and knew how to have fun, which now seems to be lost under domestic problems and a burgeoning police state. That in this case Tim Bray is declining is a red flag, as he is of the type who could be held up as an emblamatic Canadian, a person, like many others, who carrys the quiet authority of a stable civilisation with them, but rather than this bieng something welcomed by ALL who encounter this, it is now a liability, someone for an armed "agent" to target, humiliate and if possible, reduce or eliminate as an example of there absolute authority in great united states.

Declining America

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