SF's Rising Rental Prices beat NYC: $3500/month for single family homes

http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/09/05/what-3500-gets-you-in-sf-single-family-homes/

by jackhammer2022 • 14 years ago

58 79 14 years ago

blog.sfgate.com

roycyang• 14 years ago

I dont think this article is comparing apples to apples. There are no single family homes to be had in most of manhattan and parts of Brooklyn. I'm living in pacific heights now and also live in lower manhattan. Manhattan is still a bit more expensive IMHO.

jcfrei• 14 years ago

how are the prices in the rest of the bay? equally high?

gwillen• 14 years ago

No, they are high but not as high as SF.

Honestly the quoted price sounds low to me for a single-family home in SF.

001sky• 14 years ago

What does $3,500 a month get you in a San Francisco house?

In the <Sunset>, you can get three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an attached garage and a big yard.

Not all neighborhoods are equal, presumably

hox• 14 years ago

I just started renting a 3BR house in the tri-valley area just east of Oakland at $3100/mo. It's a more suburban area with good schools, though, which tends to raise the price for potential families.

hkarthik• 14 years ago

Single family home rents vary a lot based on school districts.

If you don't have school age kids, you can get something in most parts of the bay for $3500, but the schools are very medicore (and probably terrible compared to most other parts of the east coast or midwest).

If you need good schools, bump your budget up to $4000-4500. You might find a deal somewhere, but it's rare.

ChuckMcM• 14 years ago

No they are lower. The 9 bay area counties have a lot of diversity from San Jose which is on the southeastern tip of the bay to Sausalito on the northern end. From rough patches in East Palo Alto to gated communities in Portola. Things that affect prices: schools, commute, amenities (near the woods, libraries, county services, etc), and micro-climate (farther south is a lot warmer than closer to the water).

binarycrusader• 14 years ago

Not equally high, but skyrocketing for sure.

When I first moved to the Menlo Park/Palo Alto area two years ago, rent on a decent two-bedroom apartment was around $1400-1700 per month. Currently (two years later roughly), it's $2350+ a month and still climbing.

In fairness, a lot of that has to do with Facebook moving into Menlo Park and the crazy demand for space in Palo Alto / proximity to Stanford University.

I'd move farther south, but there's too much urban sprawl which makes it inconvenient at best to get around unless you drive everywhere. Mountain View is going up too thanks to Google.

The last place of refuge is pretty much Sunnyvale and San Jose. But the rent there is still a few hundred higher per month at least than it was two years ago.

BadassFractal• 14 years ago

This chart from Lovely was making the rounds of /r/sanfrancisco the other day, sounds relevant to this post: http://cdn1.uptownalmanac.com/cdn/farfuture/N3k8kY5x460_wHNR...

grimlck• 14 years ago

Isn't this just a symptom of san francisco proper being much smaller than new york city?

A more fair comparision is comparing San Francisco to Manhattan.

_delirium6• 14 years ago

Or the whole Bay Area to NYC. This is comparing large tracts of semi-suburban areas (outer parts of Queens, Staten Island, etc.) to a <50 sq mile city. A closer comparison would have to include the Peninsula and East Bay at the very least, which are essentially SF's "boroughs".

The commute time by subway from Flushing, Queens to Lower Manhattan, for example, is about an hour. If you're willing to include that commute radius for NYC, the SF equivalent would also have a number of affordable places to live. For example, you can head 45-60 mins eastward on either the Dublin/Pleasanton or the Pittsburg/Bay Point BART lines. Or even closer, the going rate for a 2br single-family home in San Bruno (30 mins by Caltrain or BART) is around $2500.

bearmf3• 14 years ago

I am not sure if there is any meaningful number of single-family homes in Manhattan. If you consider townhouses they are definitely more than $3500, even in Harlem.

potatolicious3• 14 years ago

I just moved from SF to Manhattan. Apples to apples (insofar as it's possible), SF is more expensive.

Obviously I wasn't looking at single-family homes in Manhattan, but when it came to studios and 1BR apartments, the busy parts of SF (e.g., not the Sunset or Outer Richmond) are probably marginally more expensive than Manhattan.

If you want to get as close, lifestyle-wise, as possible, you're comparing Rincon Hill to Midtown, and Rincon Hill will be more expensive. Even if you expand the parameters out to the high-rises in western SOMA (towards crack-stab-town) SF will still edge out.

If you're comparing more residential-y areas, like, say, the Upper East Side to Hayes Valley or the Castro, SF will still win out, though you will probably get a tad more space in SF for your troubles.

It's hard to declare with great certainty who is the clear winner (or rather, loser), but SF is definitely neck and neck with Manhattan.

mc324• 14 years ago

San Francisco has limited land, so there is a natural constraint on growth; in addition, there is a form of rent control and then there are lots of stipulations for building new units in the city. these things contribute to the low inventory, I think.

I wish they would allow more common sense building in the city. For example, in some areas, the shadows from new buildings may not be allowed to cast on neighborhood parks from 10am to 4pm, or so. This has killed a few projects. Then you have powerful neighborhood groups (like the ones along the embarcadero) who won't allow dense building because they would limit their view. I understand their position, but it's a selfish one. No one "owns" a view. More over, their buildings obstruct buildings behind them, but they would insist on having their own buildings be demolished to give others a view --nevermind that this could go on till very few houses were left.

The building requirements, in my layman's view, is that the requirements are onerous (compared to say San Jose) and make housing in SF an artificially limited/scarce resource which puts pressure on housing. The Peninsula is not much better. Neighbors always bring up traffic but then never approve BART to alleviate some of that traffic concern (or some other form of local mass transit (let's say spurs from the main Caltrain stations meandering to the local downtowns which host offices). My frustration is such that I wish someone like ABAG were given the power to overrule locals and allow them to do proper (integrated regional) planning and allow building up (vertically) to take the pressure off of housing in the Bay Area.

jowiar8• 14 years ago

I see it less on aggregate as a limited land issue, and more of a topography issue. SF is inherently not going to have the character of an east coast city because the hills provide natural divisions in development. San Francisco is a city of neighborhoods, each with their own character, and it's probably most reasonable to look at development on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis. Increasing the density in Pac Heights is never going to happen, but building a residential high-rise in the FiDi? Look at the Transbay Terminal project. http://www.sfredevelopment.org/index.aspx?page=54. All of that said, any time you're talking SF, there is the elephant in the room: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Next-big-quake-could-b...

In general, I don't actually see a limited supply as a bad thing. As long as office space and residential stay within the right balance, the mix should be sustainable. The goal should not be to make every city look like Manhattan. The suburb I grew up in effectively ran out of land, demand increased in the next town out, and it got built up. There is no real shortage of land in CA as a whole - It doesn't take much of a road trip from SF to find an area where cows outnumber people, and it's reasonable that groups of people are able to define the character of an area in which they live.

The slippery slope view argument doesn't really hold water, largely because much of the city was built a century ago, long before the current residents settled there. Zoning restrictions caused views to be priced into the value of the property. Current owners bought their properties largely with the view-restrictions intact. You buy something, you know what the view you have, you know what view you don't have, you know what restrictions there are on what you can do with your property, and it's priced accordingly. It's a reasonable system for all.

I do second your suggestion of better regional planning as a whole, though, mostly with regards to transportation, though the Bay Area is better than most in that regard.

mc324• 14 years ago

> San Francisco is a city of neighborhoods, each with their own character, and it's probably most reasonable to look at development on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis.

I think this is what SF locals like to invoke as a reason. I don't really think it bears out. Paris is full neighborhoods, but it's a dense city. Tokyo is dense with thousands of small neighborhoods. Taipei is dense with hundreds of small neighborhoods with their own character. all these cities realise they are urban and they need to accommodate growing populations. Basically, it's red-herring.

>...but building a residential high-rise in the FiDi? Look at the Transbay Terminal project

SoMa is the only place where it's somewhat less onerous to build. But the FinDis? Not quite, even if it was historically amenable to tall buildings. Last time a tower was attempted, it was rejected on the basis of "character" and casting shadows[1]. I really dislike the "character" argument. It's as if things were not meant to grow and change. It's as if they'd want the city to be a "living" museum. It's a romantic, but unnatural notion, to me. I want some progress, sure, manage it, so it does not end up like Mumbai, or something like that.

>any time you're talking SF, there is the elephant in the room...

Lots of cities live on fault lines. LA, Seattle, Tokyo, Taipei, MDF., etc. You need to build them to code. And, not only that, but we already have tall buildings, it's not as if this is Phoenix, so this is beside the point.

> Bay Area is better than most in that regard

I would disagree with that. The Bay Area has 6 million+ residents. It's one of the most poorly coordinated regions with such a large population.

W/re views. I realize that's how it is, but I think it should be more a public good. How does NYC, Tokyo, MDF, Paris and so on deal with this? Obviously it's not disallowing growth in those cities. As long as they don't build monstrosities like they do in Caracas, I think sensible blending is okay and if you lose some view, so be it and be happy you had something which wasn't actually yours. I mean, SF thinks of itself as "progressive" but then, something as vain as "view" is like a sacred cow. how does that make sense?

[1]. http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/nevius/article/Tower-new-front...

travisp• 14 years ago

>No one "owns" a view.

I agree with your sentiment about neighborhood groups using the law to protect their high property values, but you can, essentially, own a view. You can purchase the "air rights" above existing houses and buildings from their property owners if you wish to prevent them from building something taller and blocking your view. Trump World Tower in New York is an example of a building that did this.

If you can't convince the owners of such air rights to sell them to you at a rate you're willing to pay to guarantee the view, you don't deserve to prevent them by law from blocking your view (basically stripping them of their air rights without compensation).

jowiar8• 14 years ago

If you were designing a new city from scratch, this makes sense. Much like in software, cities have "legacy systems" to deal with. In the case of homes in San Francisco, "air rights" had largely been priced into properties by way of historical architecture limitations (lack of elevators, then earthquake resilience).

What the zoning restrictions have done is serve as a mechanism to allocate air rights. Effectively, properties come with the air "in front of" them, not "above" them. This is reasonable, and consistent. I doubt anyone bought low-lying property in SF with the idea in replacing it with a skyscraper, but most people up on a hill definitely paid for the privilege. A shift in pricing of air rights would cause a dramatic market shift from the previously existing condition.

cletus• 14 years ago

San Francisco is now for all intents and purposes a boom town.

At one end of the spectrum it is awash with tech money from the likes of Google, Facebook and Twitter. On the other you have pretty much everyone else.

I'm familiar with this coming from Perth, Western Australia. Australia is undergoing an unprecedented resources boom thanks to China's insatiable appetite for metals and petroleum products. This has affected different parts of the country differently. Perth, Brisbane and some region centers have ridden this wave for more than a decade.

On one side you have those who have owned property for this entire time who are sitting on huge windfalls (eg a house you could buy for $85,000 in 2001 cost $350,000 by 2005). Now you won't find a house cheaper than $250,000 in the Perth metropolitan area which stretches for 100 miles of coast and 50 miles inland (at peak; it's in between a triangle and a semicircle).

To view this is a positive is ultimately shortsighted. You see, it's incredibly difficult for new people entering the market. And I'm not just talking about purchasing. It flows on to renting. Those rents are inputs into all other costs and this all adds up to an inflation bomb just waiting to explode.

The "haves" in Australia are those associated with mining and construction (since mining demands a lot of infrastructure). The "have nots" are everyone else. The have nots are, at best, asset rich and cash poor.

At some point the economy simply ceases to function. Office space is incredibly expensive in Perth such that, for example, there are fewer and fewer software engineering jobs as companies relocate or centralize to Sydney and Melbourne (exacerbating a natural trend), which incidentally is one of the reasons I moved a couple of years ago.

Honestly I think it's cheaper for me to live in Manhattan than anywhere central in Perth now. Manhattan. Rents are more expensive here but not by much. Everything else is cheaper. I can walk into a large number of eateries and have appetizers for <$5 and entres for <$10, just as one data point. Utilities in Perth are super-expensive. I know people with $1500 electricity bills... for two months.

Now Perth isn't land-contrained like San Francisco (or Manhattan) for that matter but the socialist bent in SF is ultimately a problem.

Rent control is a huge problem in SF. This has been covered here previously. Some estimates run at 1 in 8 rentable units being left permanently vacant, arguably due to rent control.

The city's building restrictions mean new units simply aren't entering the market.

NYC has several things going for it here:

1. It did away with rent control in 1973. It provided a smooth landing with rent stabilization, which is now rapidly disappearing from Manhattan;

2. Manhattan has excellent transport links, probably the best in the country. The fact is if you work in Manhattan, you can live in the five boroughs, New Jersey, upstate New York, Long Island or even further afield without having to drive into the city.

Compare this to the woeful transport situation (in comparison) in the Bay area. Caltrain is barely serviceable and at best runs once or twice an hour.

3. New York allows new construction, at least in some areas. Financial district, Battery Park, Midtown West, etc;

4. The surrounding areas of NYC are more densely populated. Compare this to, say, Menlo Park, which reserves almost all land for single-family residences on large blocks and like much of the rest of the Valley, virtually prohibits high-rise construction.

This low density is ultimately shortsighted as it comes at the expensive of amenities and will at some point impact the ability for employers to stay in the area as the rising property prices make commercial activity increasingly untenable.

5. The geography doesn't help SF. Whereas New York, London and other densely populated urban centers can expand in multiple directions, SF is more constricted.

Facebook really wanted to stay in Palo Alto. Zoning restrictions made it difficult. They had split offices and eventually had to move. Twitter for some reason is sticking to SoMA but as the seedier areas gentrify and go up in cost, this is going to become increasingly difficult. At some point it's simply going to make more sense to relocate out of these kinds of areas.

What happens to SF when large numbers of jobs move out of the city?

The whole rent control and construction limits is going to have to end. The longer it goes on, the worse the correction will be (IMHO).

rayiner9• 14 years ago

Zoning for singe-family residences is so bizarrely 1950's, it's ironic that a high-tech place like Silicon Valley would buy into such idiocy.

jowiar8• 14 years ago

Single-family residences aren't "idiocy", or "bizarrely 1950s". Some people simply prefer to live that way. For instance, I cannot picture my father living in a downtown high-rise.

In the past 10 years, I've lived in a suburban single-family home, a college dorm, a suburban "new urbanism project" apartment, two urban neighborhood houses-that-were-converted-into-apartments, two urban neighborhood apartment buildings built as such, and a downtown high rise.

All of these places have had their pluses and minuses. Depending on what I'm doing at the time, I may prefer one to the other, and I'm happy they all exist (and most certainly, are allowed to exist).

vidarh4• 14 years ago

> Zoning for singe-family residences is so bizarrely 1950's

I find that a ridiculous statement when dealing with a country with one of the lowest population densities in the developed world.

Perhaps it's not the best solution for the Bay Area, or perhaps it is (changing it would surely drastically change the character of the area), but that's a far cry from denouncing the very concept.

briandear4• 14 years ago

It sucks living in a beehive. I don't particularly want to share walls with random people unless I have to. There's no virtue in being crowded unless that's your thing. Suggesting that everyone should be crowded to fit some urban planner's idea of efficient is the real idiocy. The people making the rules don't live in 400sf apartments.

marvin• 14 years ago

Fascinating to see that the exact same thing is happening in different places. The large cities in Norway experience exactly the same problem right now, mostly due to the booming oil industry.

Forecasts from the government statistics agency for the next three years of housing prices practically make it impossible for young professionals to buy a home, even with very high (100,000+ USD) salaries. I'm not the only one curious about how the situation will resolve.

vidarh4• 14 years ago

It's not really comparable. Same mechanism, but still.

Commute an hour out of Oslo, Bergen or pretty much any other Norwegian city, and you're in the middle of nowhere, with plenty of options that are vastly cheaper than in most similar positions relative to SF or Silicon Valley.

Couple that with a far flatter salary curve, and it might be worse for those of us on the upper part, but for most people it's vastly easier to find decent sized places.

E.g. my brother lives in a two bedroom flat 30 minutes from the centre of Oslo which costs less than most studios where I live, in a suburb an hour from Central London.Bay Area is closer to London than Oslo in terms of availability of decent priced property.

Outside of the tiny city cores which are typically small enough to walk across, I think price increases for property in Norway are more affected by construction cost driven up by high salaries even on the low end of the salary scale.

autophil• 14 years ago

The "haves" in Australia are those associated with mining and construction (since mining demands a lot of infrastructure). The "have nots" are everyone else.

If it's mining, you can put the environment in the "have not" column as well. Mining is devastating on wildlife and the environment.

lsc• 14 years ago

>San Francisco is now for all intents and purposes a boom town.

Yes. This happens every decade or so. It comes and goes with the business cycle. Just like commodity prices won't always be way higher than everything else, people won't be investing in 'social media' at inflated P/E ratios forever, too.

(what I find interesting is that housing prices did not fall that much during the '01 crash, not for another what, 7-8 years.)

>This low density is ultimately shortsighted as it comes at the expensive of amenities and will at some point impact the ability for employers to stay in the area as the rising property prices make commercial activity increasingly untenable.

I think this is our real long-term problem, especially in the silicon valley, south of SF. (I mean, the problems with caltrain are an issue, too... but I think it's going to be easier to just run caltrain more often than it is going to be to build more high density housing.)

>The whole rent control and construction limits is going to have to end. The longer it goes on, the worse the correction will be (IMHO).

Personally? I think the boom will end before the lack of construction becomes that huge of a deal.

I mean, sustainable businesses that don't depend on investor dollars are not what's driving this boom; unless we generate several new google/ebay like profitable powerhouses, the crash is coming and it's going to be big. Even then, right now? everyone, including "i take no investment" bootstrapped companies like mine are getting a boost from the torrents of investor money flowing into the area. I am personally a little bit frightened for my long-term contracts.

If anything, the fact that we can't build a lot of new stuff is going to have a dampening effect; It's going to tend to dampen both the upswing, as it means there won't be a huge construction boom, and it's encouraging companies to spread out, and it will temper the inevitable downswing for similar reasons. There won't be as far to fall.

There is a /lot/ of talent in the area, and eh, yeah, a lot of them will leave when the investment money leaves, but there will still be plenty of us left. If "social" investor money leaves and pushes down the price of space and labour, it will be fertile ground for other industries that need Engineering talent. We will come back, we always do.

mavelikara• 14 years ago

> Facebook really wanted to stay in Palo Alto. Zoning restrictions made it difficult. They had split offices and eventually had to move. Twitter for some reason is sticking to SoMA but as the seedier areas gentrify and go up in cost, this is going to become increasingly difficult. At some point it's simply going to make more sense to relocate out of these kinds of areas.

In most firms, the people who are in a position to make a decision about relocating are the few who are able to compete successfully for expensive real estate at the current location.

jboggan• 14 years ago

I think the increase in rental prices is going to continue for quite awhile. My recent experience moving to SF and trying to find a place was incredible. I was just looking for sublets, but most people that I got to personally meet told me their email rate for a CL ad was 150-300 emails a day. I quickly learned that unless I was discovering the ad within 2 hours of posting there was no point to even replying.

I was only able to get an apartment after (1) enlisting my mother on the East Coast to spend all her spare time on CL forwarding me appropriate listings, (2) calling an ad's phone number 22 minutes after it was posted, (3) making sure I was the very first person that was personally screened, and (4) forcing a check for two months' rent into their hand unsolicited with the message that if they found anyone better I'd just stop payment. It's a rough market and it is still getting crazier. I think someone on a previous HN comment thread mentioned the city gained only 270 new housing units last year.

bearmf3• 14 years ago

Sounds crazy. Are there any real estate brokers who can do this job for you?

potatolicious3• 14 years ago

This tickles my funny bone. Of all the New York-isms to import to the west coast!

So now instead of signing away your firstborn for a studio at a stabby corner of the Mission, it's now your firstborn and 2 months rent for the privilege!

briandear4• 14 years ago

"Rent control protects tennants from higher prices.."

That's bullshit. What rent control does is distorts the market so you have people hanging onto apartments when they may not need them. As a result, it creates shortages. When some dude in Soho NYC is paying $600 for a nice two bedroom, and his next door neighbor is paying $4500, then there's a big problem with that system.

daveman• 14 years ago

Absolutely correct. When prices go up, newer tentants end up subsidizing squatters who are paying below-market rates. If rent prices were variable then the market would be more liquid and the total supply would be higher, and thus new rentals would be lower.

I guess it's nice not having your landlord jack up your rent each year (and landlords can't price little grannies out of their homes). But you also get stuck in one apartment because the cost of moving keeps getting higher.

andrewfelix• 14 years ago

This is nothing compared to Sydney. We were paying $4k AUD for a run down 3 bed apartment in Newtown. This has been the norm for quite some time, and is probably down to the fact that Sydney has 1% vacancy.

I've since moved to a town called Newcastle and pay $1700.

briandear4• 14 years ago

San Francisco is a nice enough place, but I fail to see the attraction: high taxes, fees for everything you do, a fascist city council, homeless people pretty much do whatever they want and people that love to berate you for not driving a Prius. The geography of San Fran is nice but it's like living in an Al Gore version of Animal Farm. Aside from the weather, Texas is a far more logical place to be. In Austin, $3500 per month would buy a palace compared to San Fran.

rayiner9• 14 years ago

The Texas cities (Houston, Dallas) have some of the most pollution this side of NJ. They're like LA without the culture.

xradionut• 14 years ago

> "The Texas cities (Houston, Dallas) have some of the most pollution this side of NJ. They're like LA without the culture."

Much of the pollution in North Texas, (from traffic, cement and power production), is due to the influx of people from the surrounding states, the coasts and overseas by the looser regulations attracting businesses.

Eventually I will probably move elsewhere. The pollution and the allergy environment is wreaking my health. Traffic is a crazy mix of over aggressive yuppies, over careful illegals and commercial trucks. The water system is stressed and the deregulated power system is over priced and in decay to increase profits.

gsibble2• 14 years ago

I live in SF and the other option I actively consider is Austin. Fairly accurate statement (but as the other comment said, Dallas and Houston are miserable). Honestly, the income and opportunity in SF is still larger, so I stay.

spaghetti2• 14 years ago

I also fail to see the attraction of SF. It's foggy, cold, filthy, crowded and expensive. Sure there's perks like great food and awesome beers on tap that are hard to find elsewhere. But is it really worth it?

mechanical_fish2• 14 years ago

Food and beer are the least important attractions. Those things are portable. (And SF is hardly a runaway leader in either category, even when the competition is confined to the USA.)

The main non-portable attraction is VCs and their money. People go where the money is.

The fact that SF is crowded is a feature. Your startup's recruitment pool and tech meetups and potential partners are all within a few dozen miles. If you change jobs, your commute doesn't change.

Given all that, I still don't think it's worth it, but obviously a lot of others disagree.

mixonic• 14 years ago

Finally, something New Yorkers are happy to be #2 at.

vinayan3• 14 years ago

:( I've been living with roommates for a few years in SF. I want to move to a 1BR place I guess it won't happen till the bust happens.

steve8918• 14 years ago

We got lucky. 1.5 years ago, we rented a house in SF for $2700, and the rent was frozen at $2700 for up to 3 years. A friend of ours moved into our neighborhood and is paying $3300/month for a comparable place.

I'm not sure what we're going to do once the lease is up in 1.5 years, hopefully the rent prices will stabilize. I know my friend in SOMA who bought his 2 br condo for $580k can now sell it for probably $800k, and charge at least $4k/month for it. It's absolutely crazy how much rents have gone up, it's as bad as during the dotcom boom, where my rent went up $500/month after the 1st year lease. (I moved out to a worse neighborhood instead of renewing the lease).

ajays• 14 years ago

Let's not forget: AirBnB isn't helping either. No, not the AirBnB employees; but the loads of people renting out their spare rooms, when earlier they would have taken in a roommate. I just checked, and 2300 listings came up for San Francisco.

Plus, SF Tenants Union is very powerful. Once you are a renter, you can basically do anything and the landlord can't kick you out. Consider this example from today's paper: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Landlord-nightmare-in-... . As a result, some people are leery of renting.

In other words: while the demand has gone up, the supply seems to have come down.

mmagin• 14 years ago

There's even a (1990) film, _Pacific Heights_, about the nightmare of being a landlord.

patio11• 14 years ago

Once you are a renter, you can basically do anything and the landlord can't kick you out.

People seem to think that this is entirely independent from the evil tech firm seducing naive owners into believing 40% utilization of a room non-regulated beats 90% utilization regulated.

ronaldj• 14 years ago

My friend and I always talk about how, given our salaries, we could have both bought houses by now if we weren't living in the Bay Area. A tempting idea is just to save as much as possible for a few years and then move someplace cheaper.

SF's Rising Rental Prices beat NYC: $3500/month for single family homes

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