Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit moon

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html

by pseudolus • 1 year ago

50 58 1 year ago

phys.org

treetalker• 1 year ago

"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the moon," NASA said in a statement on Thursday.

All is well!

It is now believed to be 53 to 67 meters, roughly the height of a 15-story building.

Good thing we have so much confidence in our leadership and intergovernmental cooperative relationships!

znkynz2• 1 year ago

A 15 story building... is the most odd relative measurement to use - wtf?

janderson2153• 1 year ago

It’s about 1/4 furlong

mountainriver• 1 year ago

150 foot longs

simondotau2• 1 year ago

Can you suggest something better? I’ve seen a 15 story building, so I’ve got some idea of scale.

nkrisc• 1 year ago

I find it useful, I could immediately picture a several buildings about that height I know.

hunter-gatherer• 1 year ago

I used to live in a 14 story building, so I have a pretty good approximation of the size.

simondotau2• 1 year ago

In all seriousness, I don’t believe a collision with the moon is something we need to be concerned about.

davidw2• 1 year ago

Someone didn't read Neal Stephenson's book.

gpm• 1 year ago

Concerned about in a "this is going to kill us" sort of way, of course not.

Concerned about in a "it would suck to miss this scientific opportunity" sort of way though... We've gone to great expense to crash things into asteroids much farther away from earth so we can study the impacts... I have to imagine there are many scientists who would love to see a collision between the moon and a large asteroid through the right instruments.

ClosedPistachio• 1 year ago

"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the moon," NASA said in a statement on Thursday.

Isn't this completely divorced from the article title? Shouldn't it be "could hit moon"?

CGamesPlay• 1 year ago

No, because the odds used to be 97%, therefore the odds of it hitting are raising.

tombert• 1 year ago

It would be pretty cool if it hits the moon. Hopefully in about five years we will know pretty accurately if that's still the case, in which case I think I will use this as an excuse to finally buy a telescope. Maybe even record it!

mirekrusin3• 1 year ago

Doesn’t that create risk of some crap from the moon going in the direction of the earth?

analog31• 1 year ago

... And wrecking our satellites?

BurningFrog2• 1 year ago

It's a 60 meter big rock.

Any debris it can dislodge from the moon will be substantially smaller.

krunck• 1 year ago

Given the known size of the asteroid and assuming a direct impact how big of a crater would be created?(give an existing crater as an example for extra points) And would any ejecta make it to Earth?

iJohnDoe• 1 year ago

It is now believed to be 53 to 67 meters, roughly the height of a 15-story building.
This is significant because it is bigger than the 50-meter threshold for activating planetary defense plans.
If the asteroid still had a more than 1% chance of hitting Earth, "the development of one or more deflection missions would already be starting now", Moissl said.

Well, I hope they are right, because it appears we’re going to miss the opportunity to do anything about it if they are wrong.

Galatians4_162• 1 year ago

We should redirect it into the moon if it doesn't. For Science™.

marviel2• 1 year ago

If you're curious about what might happen here if the explosion was REALLY big -- Seveneves by Neal Stephenson is a fun speculative fiction read.

(But this is almost certainly too small)

conception• 1 year ago

“Fun”

Mistakenly started this during Covid and decidedly the wrong vibe for that time period.

marviel2• 1 year ago

Very fair

dreamcompiler• 1 year ago

Protecting Earth from asteroids is part of the job we hired the Moon to do. I mean, have you seen the back side of that thing?

Kidding aside, an argument can be made that life on Earth would never have had time to evolve if not for the Moon's protective effect against cataclysmic impacts.

blackoil• 1 year ago

By then, China and hopefully US shall have observation satellites revolving moon and a scientific base. If it happens, we will be getting tonnes of data otherwise nearly impossible to get.

rich_sasha• 1 year ago

If it does, what are the odds we would be able to see it?

For starters, I would imagine it is at least 50% likely to hit the far side of the Moon, which we ~never see. Perhaps worse, because for it to hit the near side, it has to fly past the Earth somewhat, diminishing the odds.

But then, it also needs to be on the lit side. On the expected date of impact, 22nd Dec 2032, it will be 2 days after new moon, so not much lit area to aim for.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit moon

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