A.I. Has Become a Technology of Faith

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/07/thrive-ai-health-huffington-altman-faith/678984/

by fortran77 • 2 years ago

54 56 2 years ago

lucianbr• 2 years ago

the bulk of the conversation about AI’s greatest capabilities is premised on a vision of a theoretical future

Yeah. 99% of the positive opinions I read about AI are "in X years it will do Y, Z, and that will change everything". As if the future is easily predictable.

Where are the flying cars? Where is the moon base? Why isn't everyone moving around on Segways? You never know what will happen. Some techs do grow exponentially, but not all, and it's impossible to know for sure which one will, ahead of time.

Alas. I doubt anyone will change their opinion. "This one is different." Ah well.

mikece• 2 years ago

"Try, but verify" should be the guidance toward so-called AI.

floxy2• 2 years ago

Where are the flying cars?

Apparently you can put $150 down on your flying car preorder now (only $299,999 final price).

https://alef.aero/preorder.html

its_ethan4• 2 years ago

It is a sales pitch, one in which the problems of today are brushed aside or softened as issues of now, which surely, leaders in the field insist, will be solved as the technology gets better. What we see today is merely a shadow of what is coming. We just have to trust them.

I'm a believer that AI is currently over-hyped, but to me this feels applicable to a lot of things that have gone on to be revolutionary. For the smart-phone too, one of the "issues of now" was slow cellular connectivity, which made the premise of using your phone for web-browsing feel like a chore. With cellular speeds "solved" we now live in a world where smart phones are the tool the majority of people use the internet on. https://explodingtopics.com/blog/mobile-internet-traffic

nybsjytm8• 2 years ago

to me this feels applicable to a lot of things that have gone on to be revolutionary.

The big issue is that it's also applicable to a lot of other things.

its_ethan4• 2 years ago

No doubt! I err on the side of "most things are over-hyped" (see: room temp superconductor hype that lasted a week), but I try to remind myself there's a yin and yang thing going on.

Yin: "this tech will change the future"

Yang: "this is over-hyped and the promises are hot air"

It's easy to default to "yang" because it is true most of the time (especially with tech). But you gotta acknowledge that "yin" is actually right some times too.

Nuance, man, it'll get you every time.

shagmin• 2 years ago

I don't know where I first heard this but I believe it - people often overestimate the short term impact and underestimate the long term impact.

its_ethan4• 2 years ago

I know Morgan Housel has written about this a decent amount, here's one article that jumped to mind: https://collabfund.com/blog/compounding-optimism/

"Technological progress is easy to underestimate because it’s so counterintuitive to see how, for example, the philosophies of a guy who invented Polaroid film would go on to inspire the iPhone. Or how an 18th-century physicist would write a notebook that would set the foundations for a modern electrical system"

From more googling, it looks like this is called "Amara's Law": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara

delusional2• 2 years ago

For the smart-phone too, one of the "issues of now" was slow cellular connectivity

Nobody said "you have to buy an iPhone NOW, because in 3 years the connectivity will be good". When Steve Jobs got on that stage to show it off, he didn't ask you to trust his vision. He didn't promise you what it would do tomorrow. The sales pitch was simple, It's an iPod, a Phone, and a web browser, and importantly it did all those things. He sold it in the NOW. all that other stuff that phones became, that came later. The iPhone was first and foremost a good product in the now.

gwbas1c2• 2 years ago

And, the first iPhone worked really, really well over WIFI.

It was good enough in the NOW, even though it didn't have an app store!

Edit: I should also add that I was a "late" adopter of the first iPhone. I didn't rush out and buy it the day it came out. I tried it in a store and made sure the web browser was useful. After a few months after hearing (almost) no complaints, when my phone has issues, I went out and bought one.

the_snooze• 2 years ago

It's an iPod, a Phone, and a web browser, and importantly it did all those things. He sold it in the NOW.

I think this is really important because it shows that the vendor knows they're meeting a real demand NOW. They're not selling hype, early access, and woo-woo future-talk in hopes of maybe eventually finding a problem for their solution.

edanm• 2 years ago

Nobody said "you have to buy an iPhone NOW, because in 3 years the connectivity will be good". When Steve Jobs got on that stage to show it off, he didn't ask you to trust his vision.

I don't think anyone is telling consumers that they need to use AI now, either, unless it actually benefits them (and judging by the usage of ChatGPT, apparently many users do find it useful).

The people promising the future of AI are usually startups pitching to investors, or companies putting resources into AI, etc.

1vuio0pswjnm7• 2 years ago

Perhaps improvements in networking have been revolutionary. Not sure why "smart phones" are revolutionary. Maybe they are revolutionary in a negative way: destroying privacy, accelerating the decline of mental health in young people, etc.

I would rather have a pocked sized computer that I can fully control and a pocket-sized cellular phone, not a combination of the two that is a Silicon Valley-orchestrated Trojan Horse into the personal lives of every person who uses one. Sometimes I need to carry a computer. Sometimes I need to carry a cellular phone. Sometimes I might need to carry both. The "smart phone" destroys this basic distinction.

In the time I have been using computers, early 1980s-present, improvements in networking have never felt overhyped. But they have been revolutionary. IMHO.

andersco• 2 years ago

https://archive.is/duPil

MulliMulli• 2 years ago

I was a skeptic after all the hype around Blockchain, Virtual Reality, and other technologies over the last few years. However, I have to say I find AI impressive. Compared to the other things I mentioned, I see cool new products and solutions popping up every week that add real value to my personal and professional life. ChatGPT alone saves me at least 10 hours of work every week, with more savings all the time.

jl6• 2 years ago

I think it’s consistent to find AI overhyped while still believing it to have some value.

itsdrewmiller2• 2 years ago

I think this is true, but the real question is where to position yourself on emphasizing the true current value and future potential of AI, vs. tamping down on excess hype. My peer group tends to poo poo AI (I think they email me every single Ed Zitron post), so I end up aggressively pro-AI in most social interactions despite having no specific expectations around AGI or even continued near linear improvement. Even if we are six months from hitting the asymptote on LLMs, they will be powering incredible innovation and value for the next decade.

SamJose3• 2 years ago

In the early 80's home computers were a technology of faith. Many thought it was absurd that many people would want computers in their home.

nybsjytm8• 2 years ago

Just for balance, here's 84 examples of the opposite: https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/20/21029499/decade-fails-fl...

SamJose3• 2 years ago

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." - Ken Olsen

I was there. I remember people saying it, but this f*cking site wants to downvote me into negative for remembering it, probably because they are thinking of business computers. Everyone was on board with that. I'm talking specifically of home computers.

aaroninsf• 2 years ago

Every critique of AI assumes to some degree that contemporary implementations will not, or cannot, be improved upon. -Ximm's Law

tomatohs2• 2 years ago

AI is a machine that can creates more than what you put in. That is "value creation" by definition.

If you've used AI, you know it's a massive timesaver. I find a lot of those who are skeptical haven't used it very much.

radarsat1• 2 years ago

Yesterday I needed to make a simple GUI app for a specific purpose. I haven't done it in a while so I figured it would take some time, but just to try, I drew a picture of the interface I had in mind and told 4o to generate a PyQt5 app for me, and it ... did it. Still took a bit of back and forth for some details but damn if it didn't get me from A to B way faster than if I'd been sitting there figuring out VBoxLayout etc again from scratch after several years. I was impressed.

floxy2• 2 years ago

I find a lot of those who are skeptical haven't used it very much.

Any tips on how I can use it more? Right now, my AI experience has been limited to asking ChatGPT questions, which it makes up incorrect answers to. And making some funky rap songs. And trying to avoid seemingly AI created videos on Youtube. Is there a setup where I can describe a motion that I want, and it will synthesize a mechanical linkage that will accomplish the task?

itsdrewmiller2• 2 years ago

What kinds of questions are you asking that it is consistently getting wrong? Do you write any code? That’s something AI is very consistently helpful for, even without being 100% perfect.

tomatohs2• 2 years ago

AI makes things up so it's not appropriate for deterministic solutions. I'm sure something is coming for your mechanical linkage problem.

As for using it more, think of it as a co-worker and not a chat bot. There was a switch that had to happen in my brain before I started realizing I could just ask AI for the answer.

Starting with, why did you prefer to ask me for this answer rather than AI? This is what AI would have said:

Great question! It sounds like you've had some interesting experiences with AI so far. There are definitely more practical and impactful ways to utilize AI beyond chatbots and entertainment.
Problem-Specific AI Tools: There are specialized AI tools designed for various fields. For instance, in mechanical engineering, there are AI-driven CAD tools that can help design and optimize mechanical linkages. You might want to explore software like Autodesk Fusion 360, which incorporates AI for generative design. These tools can take your specifications and generate a variety of design options.
Learning Resources: To get more comfortable with AI, you might find it useful to check out online courses on platforms like Coursera or edX. They offer courses on machine learning, AI, and specific applications in different fields.
Experiment with AI APIs: Platforms like OpenAI, Google Cloud AI, and IBM Watson offer APIs that you can integrate into your projects. For instance, you could use them to analyze data, generate content, or even control hardware.
Join AI Communities: Engaging with communities like AI Stack Exchange, Reddit's r/MachineLearning, or even specialized LinkedIn groups can provide you with tips, resources, and examples of how others are using AI in innovative ways.
Hands-on Projects: Try building a small project that leverages AI. For example, you could create a simple AI-powered application using Python and libraries like TensorFlow or PyTorch. This could be anything from a predictive model to a small automated system.

gwbas1c2• 2 years ago

What I often say is that "a lot of people are letting their imaginations run away about what AI can do."

timeon• 2 years ago

It can save time but sink as well if it tricks you with misinformation. It burned me several times.

bigstrat2003• 2 years ago

If you've used AI, you know it's a massive timesaver.

I have used it, and I have not found it to be a massive timesaver.

bell-cot• 2 years ago

Techno-utopianism requires a new & different Awesome New Technologies every few years - once people start to realize that the previous ANT ain't gonna take us to the Promised Land after all. Just like the previoius ANT didn't, and the one before that didn't, and the one before...

On the bright side - at least they aren't trying to sell us on the idea of nuclear-powered cars, or commuting via rocket-belt anymore.

AndrewKemendo2• 2 years ago

OpenAI =/= AI

I could sit here and list hundreds of places that AI - specifically deep learning is applied in your daily life to improve it

Yall seem to also forget about Deepmind every time

https://deepmind.google/technologies/alphafold/

They literally solved protein folding with AI and won the Lasker prize

Similarly with AlphaGo etc…

AI is the most frustrating discipline to be in (and also most inspiring imo) because it’s never enough and anything that works, ceases to be AI

AI has always been a technology of faith if you recognize that the lived definition is “any technology that has been conceived but not widely implemented”

nybsjytm8• 2 years ago

They literally solved protein folding with AI

AlphaFold deserves some hype but this is a tremendous overstatement.

AndrewKemendo2• 2 years ago

It’s not an overstatement:

AlphaFold, developed by the Alphabet-owned company DeepMind, predicted the 3-D structures of almost every known protein—about 200 million in all

nojvek• 2 years ago

Ha! That’s the hype there. They made predictions, like any other model out there. Their models are better but not close to what we get out of xray crystallography which is a painstaking process.

Protein folding is nowhere near a solved problem. A third of proteins don’t have high enough accuracy.

https://occamstypewriter.org/scurry/2020/12/02/no-deepmind-h...

k310• 2 years ago

The future’s bright if we get there. Each new technology, be it search (with surveillance compute load), crypto, and now AI, places enormous load on the grid, that also serves consumers, something as un-glamorous as air conditioning. AI or A/C?

“Oh, but it’s different this time.”

Shiny objects competing with survival. Tell that to non-1337 working stiffs and retirees on a fixed income saddled with enormous PG&E bills.

Please innovate in more useful and less shiny ways. The planet is literally burning up, not just my little piece of it.

benreesman• 2 years ago

It can be both a big deal fundamentally and a major pillar of a weird, scary religion. It is currently both.

Of course machine learning is a big deal, it was a big deal a decade ago and more. We know it’s a big deal.

This Calvinism meets growth hacking, this Scientology for Atherton thing is bizarre and kind of terrifying.

It is in no way surprising that a philosophy that justifies short-run amoral wealth maximization with tired arguments about long-run utilitarianism would turn out any other way.

What’s surprising is that people who talk about imminent digital gods are put in positions of vast power instead of therapy.

shinycode2• 2 years ago

AI can’t solve everything because, although most things can be described and explained. Most other have to be experienced. And even though something sounds nice in text, once experienced we can say if it’s good or not.

For example, an AI can create a recipe that sounds good, but it will never be able to ground those choices on experience. Only through other people’s experiences combined, which might not be great in the end. And it won’t ever produce and adjust it based on its experience.

The same for a lot of other things that AI is meant to « replace ».

bitnasty• 2 years ago

I agree with most of your post, except the last bit. AI replacing human workers is not black and white. AI will not replace all human artists, for example, but with AI, artists are needed less often. Whether this is good or bad, I don’t know.

shinycode2• 2 years ago

It’s true and it happened for example with tailors. Before a lot of people were wearing suits and there was a lot of tailors. Now with industries and cheap clothes, tailors are rare but not dead. There is a few tailors compared to before but the skills are now a luxury and those suits are really expensive compared to the industrial made ones. It’s probably going to be the same circle, the quality will go down, the workers with it as well. But the ones remaining might have the opportunity to move up and become a luxury. It happened to most domains touched by industries, luxury developed (shoes, bags, clothes, food etc). Whether or not AI worker will level up the quality or dilute the quality in the low end we don’t know yet

Edit: As regards to art, I stumbled across this ad : https://youtu.be/GuieFpIauN0 which is impressive given the final "cost" to produce it. I wonder how much it would have cost a human to do it from scratch. The quality is not amazing, but the message is there. Art is concerned as well, why would I learn how to do this if no one will pay humans to create it ?

WalterSear• 2 years ago

A.I. Has Become a Technology of Smug Pshaw, Pshaw, I Didn't Understand Blockchain Either And Look How That Turned Out.

AlexandrB• 2 years ago

And also the metaverse (remember when one of the world's largest companies changed its name because of how revolutionary the metaverse was going to be). The ratio of hits to misses with tech hype is not good recently. I don't blame anyone for being skeptical.

GaggiX• 2 years ago

Machine learning is really the only way to deal with non-formal, unstructured data, there is nothing to believe, the technology has been battle tested by billions of people, just think of BERT used by Google Search or all the AI models used for moderation, translation or detection and many more cases. But I guess all these use cases are just too boring to talk about today, AI has already helped millions of people at least, including me since I'm a native English speaker, I learned a lot just by using Deepl or YouTube with the auto-generated captions (which are much better today than they were in the past).

amiantos• 2 years ago

I think this movement around 'debunking AI' is entirely the fault of marketing and company CEOs inflating the potential around generative AI to such ridiculous amounts. Of course after CEOs toured the country shouting about the dangers and virtues of AI as if it will destroy the world or remake it into something better, and that it will do it any minute now, everyone is 'annoyed' now that neither thing has happened already. How long ago were people screaming and crying that AI development must be slowed down by world governments or else?

Similar tone in this YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8ByoAt5gCA

I say 'annoyed' with quotes, because as far as I can tell it's largely journalists and the media machine that seem to be taking a gleeful lap telling everyone how AI hasn't measured up after promoting the idea that AI will steal all their jobs and ruin the internet.

I think that's the fun part of some of these perspectives, that inherent conflict, that journalists want to convince us that AI is very dangerous technology and that it's stealing all their work and it's going to put everyone out of a job... but also AI is not living up to expectations and it's a nothing burger and all these companies are a joke selling lies to people. It's really hard square these conflicting storylines being served to us by the press (who are obviously biased against the technology that they think will destroy their livelihoods).

I hate to sound like one of those "you can't just journalism!" cranks, because I feel that way about nothing else, but in this case sometimes the vitriol coming from journalists about AI related technologies seems a bit much.

nybsjytm8• 2 years ago

I think this movement around 'debunking AI' is entirely the fault of marketing and company CEOs inflating the potential around generative AI to such ridiculous amounts.

I don't think you should let the AI research community off the hook so easily. Some of the most obnoxious and influential voices are researchers who are taken as credible authorities. I'm thinking for instance of the disgraceful "Sparks of AGI" paper from Sebastien Bubeck's research team at Microsoft Research, also certain "godfathers", etc.

650• 2 years ago

Of course this had to be whisked off the front page ;)

Through an op-ed in Time, Altman and Huffington had just announced the launch of a new company called Thrive AI Health

Launching Companies Grifter, I guess he found his shtick.

A.I. Has Become a Technology of Faith

Related Stories