Russia Claims Breakthrough With ATACMS

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russia-claims-breakthrough-with-atacms/

by giuliomagnifico • 2 years ago

34 100 2 years ago

eurasiantimes.com

jncfhnb7• 2 years ago

Dang they’re only 30 years behind us now.

jasonvorhe• 2 years ago

Where do you get that information from?

1992spacemovie3• 2 years ago

The last ATACMS was made 30 years ago.

squidbeak6• 2 years ago

ATACMS is superseded by the Precision Strike Missile.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/precision-stri...

stanfordkid• 2 years ago

I mean it’s easier to build something new than guess how a black box you don’t have access to works (short of spying on the manufacturing facility). I’m sure Russian missile technology has at least somewhat kept up.

jncfhnb7• 2 years ago

It absolutely has not kept up. ATACMs are 30 years old. Russia just doesn’t have anything like it.

themgt3• 2 years ago

The US Army announced that the first PrSM batch has been delivered in December 2023.

Operational testing is expected in 2024, with low-rate initial production, full-rate production, and initial capability testing expected in 2025, according to the Government Accountability Office’s 2023 Weapons Systems Annual Assessment.

A total of 110 PrSMs are expected to be procured in fiscal 2024 and 190 in fiscal 2025

It's fairly ridiculous to claim that ATACMS M57(?) last produced a few years to decade ago which are still our best-in-class available for operational use until ~2025+ are "30 years" old tech. The number of PrSMs we'll have by end of next year would last us about 24 hours in a great power war.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/03/07/lockheed-precision...

jncfhnb7• 2 years ago

It’s really quite reasonable. The basic capabilities of the ATACMS are not hugely changed and have been available for decades. Russia does not have an equivalent that is demonstrably deployed effectively. They’re also not the focal point of US military development.

The quality of Russian equipment being deployed right now is really bad. The limiting factor here is not “science”.

Fun bonus if you want to watch some people die:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1dv3086/north_kore...

justin669• 2 years ago

If they breathlessly announced they were dismantling one of our howitzers, we'd joke about them being 60 years behind. It doesn't mean those howitzers aren't useful weapons, but...

paganel2• 2 years ago

Do people in the US genuinely believe that? Makes me think of that the Germans thought of the Soviets before June of 1941.

ceejayoz8• 2 years ago

Do people in the US genuinely believe that?

Yes, we fairly reasonably believe that Russia's struggle to make progress against a smaller neighbor using NATO hand-me-downs is heavily indicative of how they'd do against all of NATO using B-2s, F-22s and F-35s.

jncfhnb7• 2 years ago

Yes that would be the year that US lend lease began for the soviets

squidbeak6• 2 years ago

It's worth noting, before 1941 the United States hadn't begun its lend-lease program to the Russia military, which was a major factor in its later success. Without it the German assessment would likely have proven correct.

rado• 2 years ago

Confusing headline. A few points inside:

• Analyzing the missile’s maneuverability will determine which anti-aircraft missiles it can evade.

• They might advise on disrupting the missile’s communication or disabling its GPS.

• This analysis would help the RF military quickly detect launch sites and missile locations.

sharpshadow2• 2 years ago

Would be interesting to know how they got a intact ATACMS.

It was clear from the beginning that every weapon system used in Ukraine could and probably would land on the black market, that’s why Israel didn’t provide any own weapon system fearing it would land in the hands of their enemies.

Conasg• 2 years ago

Usually it’s just a missile that belly-flopped due to a malfunction, and was then found and studied.

justin669• 2 years ago

It's not inconceivable that a Russian counter-battery strike could force Ukrainian troops to flee (or kill them) but leave behind some intact equipment.

dboreham• 2 years ago

If the US permitted ATACMS to be used in this theater, you can be 100% sure they know the Russians already have an ATACMS. So this is just propaganda.

dmix5• 2 years ago

They already have the replacement for ATACMS starting production so I don't think they are super concerned hiding a 35yr old missile

simion3144• 2 years ago

It was clear from the beginning that every weapon system used in Ukraine could and probably would land on the black market, that’s why Israel didn’t provide any own weapon system fearing it would land in the hands of their enemies.

This is Zed propaganda/fake news , a soldier can't put a missile in his pocket and go home and exchange it for alcohol.

I think the main concern is Ukrainians that are loyal to Kremlin and smuggle information witch is more easy then selling big stuff on the black market.

galkk4• 2 years ago

What about tank?

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-soldier-defect-steal-tank-r....

llamaimperative2• 2 years ago

Oh no, not our state of the art[1] missiles getting figured out[2] while defending an allied democratic state against an imperial despot!

[1] SOTA as of 1991

[2] According to Kremlin propaganda

Someone• 2 years ago

I can’t find a claim in the article that they have an intact one.

They get ones in various states of brokenness because Ukraine throws them towards them. For example, https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-atacms-attack-luha... says “The source said the footage showed a "Ukrainian ATACMS strike, with 4 ATACMS, including one dud, hitting a Russian training area in Mozhnyakivka, Luhansk Oblast."”

kibwen• 2 years ago

You'd have to be either a liar or a fool to publicly admit that you've deciphered something about your opponent's secret capabilities. The allies didn't go bragging to the Nazis every time that they broke the enigma machine.

Tade0• 2 years ago

There's a whole field of study, named Kremlinology, dedicated to deciphering what was it that the people there actually meant by saying this and that.

I used to think that I had some additional insight, hailing from a country neighbouring Russia, but it takes being born on former soviet territory to fully understand their line of thinking.

It's not that it's particularly sophisticated - just utterly foreign to anyone even west-adjacent.

medo-bear• 2 years ago

I think this is pretty effective. These systems cost a lot to develop. If they are worthless then that money could definitely have been better spent elsewhere. There is a real sense of worry about the financial burden of Ukraine conflict amongst Ukraine's supporters

ceejayoz8• 2 years ago

These systems cost a lot to develop. If they are worthless then that money could definitely have been better spent elsewhere.

We're basically using Ukraine to dispose of an outdated system ("In 2007, the U.S. Army terminated the ATACMS program due to cost, ending the ability to replenish stocks"; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS) we intend to deprecate.

The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_Strike_Missile is intended to replace it and has seen its first deliveries last year.

There's little indication they're worthless, and an article breathlessly citing someone saying "This is a signal to the whole world, not just the West, that Western weapons are no match for Russian arms" is not a change to that.

onemoresoop• 2 years ago

Russian propaganda's target audience isn't very smart nor things critically. But their propaganda overall has been an effective operation I'd say.

JohnBooty• 2 years ago

It's kind of a cliche, but it's a cliche for a reason.

USSR/Russia has always loudly overstated the capabilities of its military and military hardware.

The US tends to stay mum about the capabilities of its hardware and when it talks about them, it tends to understate.

Even when the F-22 shot down that Chinese balloon (a hilarious use of cutting-edge air power) it was more impressive than it might have seemed at first glance. For years the claimed ceiling of the F-22 was 50,000 feet. But then they mentioned that it shot the balloon down from a height of 58,000 feet. Now the Wikipedia article (after years of edit fights) seems to have settled on 65,000 feel and the official USAF page says "above 50,000 feet". Maybe a trivial example but kind of representative.

(Don't get me wrong, the US "flexes" military might in other gaudy ways. I'm not saying we are humble and Russia is not. It's just funny how the two countries go about it differently....)

sceptical• 2 years ago

Obviously they disclose this so we don't waste any more ATACMS. How nice of them.

red-iron-pine• 2 years ago

released more for internal propaganda, and/or the countermeasures are already well known enough to the AFU / NATO that there is no reason to be coy about it.

Plus the ATACMS still work with inertial guidance. that creates ever-increasing errors as the travel time increases but is often good enough for hitting strategic targets.

klrtla• 2 years ago

Article claims that ATACMS have been highly effective, but all 5 missiles launched at Crimea recently were shot down.

As usual, everything is completely unclear in this stalemate war where both sides regularly claim overwhelming successes yet nothing has changed for 2 years.

lawn4• 2 years ago

As usual, everything is completely unclear

Its only completely unclear if you think that the words of a dictatorship is equally trustworthy as a democracy plus the journalism of the rest of the free world.

mrtacy• 2 years ago

Taken to the extreme, you can then also not trust the free world. Reuters also cites the Russian sources:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accuses-kyiv-usi...

So either Russia shot down 4 of the 5 missiles and they landed in apartment buildings, or the one that landed on the beach was also shot down.

Or they staged everything, including blowing up apartment buildings.

Unlikely, since Defense Secretary Austin had emergency phone calls after the beach incident.

Regarding the stalemate, maps shown at the Institute for the Study of War also show little change. No need for Russian sources here.

addicted3• 2 years ago

Article claims that ATACMS have been highly effective, but all 5 missiles launched at Crimea recently were shot down.

Which is not at all in contradiction. The ATACMS could have been highly successful but not any longer. In fact, this would be exactly what you would expect if the claims in the article are true.

As usual, everything is completely unclear in this stalemate war where both sides regularly claim overwhelming successes yet nothing has changed for 2 years.

Yeah it’s insane Russia continues in this war of aggression where they’re gaining no land, losing people at a clip of 2-3:1, losing its most modern weaponry against the decades old cast offs of the West, is reduced to begging North Korea for help, has probably already lost significant amounts of land to China, and all this against a country that until a decade ago didn’t barely had a military.

speeder• 2 years ago

People bashing Russia military but asking why Russia is attacking Ukraine are not figuring out that is exactly the reason for the war.

Ukraine border is too close to Moscow, it is easy to go from Ukraine to Moscow and Russia know they would fail to defend themselves from a NATO land invasion from there. Thus why they are willing to pay a very high price to ensure this won't happen.

AnimalMuppet• 2 years ago

That's the second time in this thread that I've seen this "Russia lost significant land to China". So far as I am aware, the border has not moved. So what are you referring to?

justin669• 2 years ago

all 5 missiles launched at Crimea recently were shot down

So Russia finally managed to chalk up a few wins? They were losing S-300 and S-400 sites at an alarming rate... to ATACMS. That's moderately ridiculous, since S-400 is supposed to be state of the art Russian military export technology.

squidbeak6• 2 years ago

Its worth noting this was a daylight attack. Russia doesn't seem to have been able to take down the ATACMS missiles that struck the Vitino Center for Long-Range Space Communications complex later that night.

squidbeak6• 2 years ago

"Nothing has changed in 2 years."

2 years ago, Russia was in full control of the Black Sea. Russia's IFV, tank and artillery storage depots were still well-stocked with vehicles. It was still able to fly A50 spy planes over the Sea of Azov and Black sea. Ukraine had no practical means of waging a campaign against Russian oil refineries, it had HIMARS, but no western tanks, Bradley IFVs, Patriot, Samp-T and NASAMs batteries, no Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, no prospect of western jets and their weapons systems.

For balance, Ukraine still had its power stations, tens of thousands of its soldiers were still alive. Bakhmut and Avdiivka hadn't been razed, Vuhledar hadn't been shattered, and it had yet to spend part of its force on an poorly-judged counter-offensive.

No matter how deadlocked it might seem today, a position isn't a stalemate when so much around either side's ability to wage war is in flux.

rdtsc• 2 years ago

This sounds like propaganda positioning mainly for their internal consumption. ”Look how we quickly deciphered this tricky American technology, it’s just another 3 days and Kiev is ours. And it has a quadruple safety system, how silly of those Americans! Let’s laugh at them together!”

This a mid-80s technology and if they really just discovered something important and valuable about the technology, they would keep their mouths shut. If they put it out as a press release, it’s precisely because they didn’t discover anything new.

TheLoafOfBread4• 2 years ago

Very much it is. For example we never heard what happened to this [0] Iskander dud which landed in Ukraine

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-found-dart-like-myst...

jasonlotito• 2 years ago

Predication: Russia's claims are overinflated as usual; US Military will use this to get more money to increase lead. Net result: Will end up even farther ahead. 20 years from now, we'll find out this was also a lie.

idaseing• 2 years ago

Russians: How is it possible that this missile can track its location anywhere? Sir, we’ve found it uses GPS. Wow, we never would have guessed that. Sneaky Americans. Now that we know their secret, we can defeat them!

rvschuilenburg• 2 years ago

The missile knows where it is at all times. It knows this because it knows where it isn't. By subtracting where it is from where it isn't, or where it isn't from where it is - whichever is greater - it obtains a difference or deviation. The guidance subsystem uses deviations to generate corrective commands to drive the missile from a position where it is to a position where it isn't, and arriving at a position that it wasn't, it now is. Consequently, the position where it is is now the position that it wasn't, and if follows that the position that it was is now the position that it isn't. In the event that the position that the position that it is in is not the position that it wasn't, the system has acquired a variation. The variation being the difference between where the missile is and where it wasn't. If variation is considered to be a significant factor, it too may be corrected by the GEA. However, the missile must also know where it was. The missile guidance computer scenario works as follows: Because a variation has modified some of the information that the missile has obtained, it is not sure just where it is. However, it is sure where it isn't, within reason, and it know where it was. It now subtracts where it should be from where it wasn't, or vice versa. And by differentiating this from the algebraic sum of where it shouldn't be and where it was, it is able to obtain the deviation and its variation, which is called error.

dekhn• 2 years ago

Not helpful. From https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/the-missile-knows-where-it-is

ceejayoz8• 2 years ago

He stressed that the West should recognize the superiority of Russian weapons and countermeasures over Western military technology.

Ah, yes. The logical conclusion.

analognoise• 2 years ago

I saw this too and couldn’t stop laughing.

justin669• 2 years ago

This far along into the war, their personnel have already figured out how to engage ATACMS with the S-300 and S-400 (although recent losses of S-400 units to ATACMS show they aren't doing really well at it [0] ). We already know they're jamming GPS and ATACMS is still getting through with inertial guidance. Maybe some of this newfound knowledge will benefit their engineers somehow when designing new weapons, but it's not very new stuff, and their industry is not well positioned to exploit it.

[0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/12/ukrainian-a...

TheLoafOfBread4• 2 years ago

Here is direct link on drone video of S400 destruction using ATACMS.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1czed3k/stri...

justin669• 2 years ago

Was there a radar on that site or did they destroy a bunch of launchers that had already fired? (not sure I understand what I'm watching)

Russia Claims Breakthrough With ATACMS

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