Changes in conspiracy beliefs are rare, but possible

https://www.bps.org.uk/research-digest/changes-conspiracy-beliefs-are-rare-possible

by wjb3 • 2 years ago

16 79 2 years ago

bps.org.uk

gadders6• 2 years ago

If anyone wants the list of "conspiracy theories" - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-51653-z/tables/2

JumpCrisscross8• 2 years ago

Why the scare quotes?

gadders6• 2 years ago

Some people might not agree they are conspiracy theories? They can decide for themselves if they qualify.

mr_mitm3• 2 years ago

Interestingly, in the German-speaking scientific literature and science communicators, there is a movement to call it "conspiracy ideologies", "conspiracy myth" or "conspiracy narratives" (they have not found a consensus yet), because they're not theories according to Karl Popper and generally lack any properties that we would usually expect a scientific theory to have.

Personally, I disagree. No one feels flattered being called a "conspiracy theorist" and I don't really see the need to differentiate, especially if a general audience is being addressed.

anonzzzies4• 2 years ago

I know a few nutcases that believe in all of these but there are far more ; notably flat earth and the moon landing are missing for instance. But many more.

CraigJPerry• 2 years ago

Is “flat earth” not in the same camp as “the birds aren’t real”? I.e. never ever accept any possible hint that it’s satire, but it is satire.

It’s a bunch of folks who don’t believe but want you to believe that they do believe.

gadders6• 2 years ago

There are others missing as well:

Donald Trump only won the election because of Russian assistance he asked for.

Hunter Biden's laptop was not genuine and was Russian disinformation.

Frummy4• 2 years ago

Maybe cognitive dominion over the populace should NOT be sought after.

0823498723498723• 2 years ago

See https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-51653-z/tables/2

There's still plenty of friction on this slope.

Frummy4• 2 years ago

I saw. Just because conspiracy theories aren't well-formed sentences in the logical manner, doesn't mean they don't represent valid values and principles. This resistance to change is societally purposeful, Ethos Pathos and Logos is required for a convincing movement, and a few people immune to Logos provide the natural resistance in the form of gravel to an increasingly mechanised logical political motor. Conspiracy theorists in this manner provide a natural resistance just by existing, to dehumanising mechanisation of political movements. Their existence can prevent changes from going too far, in a dampening matter a la differential equations. If we learn to untangle these beliefs easily, it's like driving a car with no shock absorbers, might get too bumpy and damage the car.

whatscooking• 2 years ago

Most conspiracy theories have an element of truth to them

anonzzzies4• 2 years ago

I think that depends on how small/big that ‘element’ is; most come down to ‘people in power lie to us’ and yep they do, just not on this scale or about this, but the small element of lying stands.

I don’t think there is any larger truth in this like the flat earth conspiracy, moon landing conspiracy or many of the others outside ‘people in power are lying to us’ in the general sense. Problem is that conspiracy believers use this to prove their side: people in power lie to us about X, hence they lie about Y (aka they lie about everything).

Hrnrurj• 2 years ago

I used to believe conspiracy theories, now I am far beyond that.

Everyone who wants, should get their booster shot every six months. They should also get RNA vaccine for flu, common cold, herpes and every other illness they desire. I would encourage them to do so! It is their life, and my life will go on.

And arguing about virus origin? Who does that today? It is like arguing about Santa Claus! (it's village must be on the North magnetic pole in Greenland, so it does not sink into ocean...)

qiqitori• 2 years ago

Maybe educate people about conspiracy theories in school. Too late for current believers, but maybe it'll get rid of the problem in a couple decades.

0823498723498723• 2 years ago

That only works if economic growth doesn't require that people respond to more socially acceptable conspiracy theories: "you've come a long way, baby", "have a coke and a smile", etc.

maybe it'll get rid of the problem in a couple decades

YMMV, but compare https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39084117

(I've been around for more than a couple of decades, most of which I've spent trying to figure people out, and at this point I'm almost ready to give up and write a book on "How I learned to stop worrying and love eating Eloi")

publius_0xf3• 2 years ago

I used to lean towards the belief that Epstein was murdered, but as I read the reports and evidence describing the circumstances of his incarceration, I came to realize that it really was just a suicide, enabled by incompetence.

ladzoppelin• 2 years ago

lol, cheers!

porkbeer2• 2 years ago

A suprising symphony of perfectly timed coincidinces even if you do buy the suicide. I don't find either theory to pass the smell test.

Animats• 2 years ago

The other side of this is conspiracies which are now known to have been real, but few believe in.

- Gulf of Tonkin incident - Incident justifying Vietnam war did not happen.[1]

- The "Business Coup" plan to get rid of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.[2]

- The Lewis Powell memo, the plan that created the business-funded conservative movement.[3]

- The British propaganda campaign to get the US into WWII.[4]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot

[3] https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/powellmemo/

[4] https://www.history.com/news/wwii-us-entry-secret-british-ca...

TheFreim• 2 years ago

There are also things like Operation Northwoods, a proposed false flag operation, where if it /had/ actually been executed they would never have released any documents. If they'd gone through with it then anyone who guessed, or found evidence, of the truth would be written off as a lunatic. Even hinting at the idea of an event being a false flag operation is almost instantly reflexively regarded, in western countries, to be a "conspiracy theory".

anonymoushn2• 2 years ago

I enjoyed this article about the Gulf of Tonkin incident: https://allthatsinteresting.com/gulf-of-tonkin

nonrandomstring6• 2 years ago

People want to be liked. So we try to be "normal", following normal rituals and believing normal things. We are also troubled by "tall poppies" who "rock the boat", so others cause similar discomfort.

Regardless of truth or falsehood, the accusation of "conspiracy theory" has become a simple shorthand for shaming outliers back into line. After a while we learn to self-censor and regulate our own opinions.

The cognitive dissonance of confronting an outrageous fact causes disbelief. I can think of my own edges, for example Noam Chomsky. He is really hard to take at times.

When I read and watched Chomsky talk about The Trilateral Commission's "Crisis of Democracy" [0], I dismissed him as a nutcase. For years I wouldn't read or watch him.

That there could be a high level international conspiracy to undermine democracy, involving leaders of the US, Britain and Europe - that just seemed crazy. Especially after WW2. I became completely blind to the fact anyone could just download and read the report. I "refused" to click the links.

Years later I read and confirmed the authenticity of it, studied the message and proposals. Somehow this time I was ready to accept it; "Yes, there are prominent traitors to "our way of life" walking around in plain sight and actively conspiring to destroy it."

How could I square this? In China they would be called dissidents, and be shot. Here we call them "leaders of industry". What we have to celebrate is the non-irony that in a tolerant democratic society they are free to openly meet and plot its overthrow. Non-contradiction. And like that... the dissonance evaporated.

Why didn't I just realise that earlier? On reflection I am disappointed in myself for having been so easily trained into blindness. I think of myself as a sceptic, a scientist, an "evidenced based" thinker. But the evidence is that I am just as easily led by emotional bias and social pressure to ignore the truth as anyone else.

Today I think of this internal self-censorship is something one must strive to overcome. It's part of the project of being a rationalist and sceptic. A true sceptic is also a contrarian because one has to overcome the desire to be "liked".

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crisis_of_Democracy

sparrowInHand• 2 years ago

I think what destroys conspiracy theories, is teaching them the tools to attack "propaganda" of the oppossing side- and watch them retract it. If your mental tools work and are sharp, they do not stop, just because you turn towards your own side. You can not subconciously run with scissors.

nox1014• 2 years ago

Are all of these conspiracies?

* SARS-CoV-2 being a bioweapon

IIUC isn't the lab leak hypothesis still one valid possibility?

* condensation from planes supposedly being harmful ‘chemtrails’

Couldn't this be confused with (a) planes pollute and (b) contrails are bad for the environment too? Note: I was unaware of 'chemtrails' and assumed it was referring 'contrails'

In any case, I don't think I believe in any "conspiracies" of the top of my head but I do believe in graft and I often see things and wonder why.

One example would be going to lunch at a FAANG company and seeing vending machines for cables. The vending machines are about the size of 6 large refrigerators next to each other. They have a large touch screen display. I'm guessing they cost $30k each or more, not including cost to develop them, network them, ongoing maintenance, etc. So, my conspiracy hat says "someone who stood to gain the contract to make them pushed to get them put in or knew someone and offered a kickback because the seem like they cost more than 50 years of the stuff they're dispensing. (happy to be proven wrong)

Another example is kitchen gloves that all food preparers wear now. I see them touch all kinds of things and get the gloves dirtier than my hands would ever be because with my hands I know when they're dirty by how they feel, more than I do than with gloves on. So, is it possible it's a conspiracy by glove manufactures? Of course my hands are not everyone else's hands.

There's the real "conspiracy" on how car companies pushed for freeways and roads. Is that a "conspiracy"? Most people push for laws that help them personally.

teekert• 2 years ago

Even the "theory" that pharmaceutical companies suppress a cancer cure could be argued for, since it's very common to write patents that are just used to "cover the market", not to guarantee a time of monopoly on innovations. And I've met people there that get enthusiastic about cancer being a incurable but manageable and the fact that that is a nice thing for the company.

I even think it is unhealthy that the word "conspiracy theory" is so negative. Because people do conspire, to all sorts of degrees. People that put their phones in a fridge when they were talking about secrets were once conspiracy theorists. Now they suddenly aren't. Like they were uplifted from a disgraceful state to a better one.

Some level of "conspiracy" thinking is no more than healthy. Although to be fair, the article doesn't suggest it isn't, not directly.

People should keep an open mind, think like a Bayesian. Some things are unlikely (like how nobody would notice a chip in your blood with all those MRI scans every day). Some things aren't (like a drug cancelled that worked but wouldn't make enough money).

JumpCrisscross8• 2 years ago

IIUC isn't the lab leak hypothesis still one valid possibility?

Lab leak and intentional bioweapon, one whose patient zero was in China, are totally different.

Couldn't this be confused with (a) planes pollute and (b) contrails are bad for the environment too?

No, becuase of the "part of a secret government program" part.

There are reasonable hypotheses proximate to these conspiracy theories. There always are. But the claim per se is stupid. Incredibly stupid. They focussed on people who believed the claim as presented, without caveats.

jeltz2• 2 years ago

Also the trails are not the pollution.

nox1014• 2 years ago

I think I didn't make my point

> IIUC isn't the lab leak hypothesis still one valid possibility?
Lab leak and intentional bioweapon, one whose patient zero was in China, are totally different.

Any lab working on gain of function research is arguably by definition, working on bio weapons or bio weapon defense. I'm not saying I believe in the lab leak. I'm rather saying that it's not hard for me to believe that if you believe in a lab leak you believe the research that lab is doing is related to bioweapons, even if they weren't building a weapon.

> Couldn't this be confused with (a) planes pollute and (b) contrails are bad for the environment too?
No, becuase of the "part of a secret government program" part.

The article didn't mention a "secret governmen program". It just said "condensation from planes supposedly being harmful ‘chemtrails’"

stuff coming out of planes is harmful, full stop. So it's not hard to believe that seeing "condensation from planes supposedly being harmful ‘chemtrails’" is associated with / confused with, the actual harms.

jeltz2• 2 years ago

The real and possible lab leak theory was never about any bio weapons or bio weapons research. We still have no strong evidence for or against an accidental lab leak of non-bioweapon. But experts (including one of my friends who was tasked with looking into this long before mainstream media even thought of lab leak as a possibility) who have looked at it have seen no evidence of anything indicating that the virus was intentionally altered.

And, nope, chemtrails are not bad for the environment. It is just the wings which cause cloud formation.

JumpCrisscross8• 2 years ago

just the wings which cause cloud formation

It's more usually the exhaust condensing [1], though pressure changes around the lifting body also contribute to it.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrail

CarRamrod3• 2 years ago

Bioweapons need to be intentionally genetically altered to exist?

fl7305• 2 years ago

seeing vending machines for cables. The vending machines are about the size of 6 large refrigerators next to each other. They have a large touch screen display. I'm guessing they cost $30k each or more, not including cost to develop them, network them, ongoing maintenance, etc.

Not saying that you're definitely wrong.

But machines like that are often put in free of charge to the business owner. The machine operator company puts the machines in at their own cost, and handles stocking and repairs. The business owner gets a cut of the profits for letting them use their floor space.

I haven't seen these particular vending machines. But there are generic machines with touch screens that can dispense anything that will fit in their spaces. I have seen vending machines at airports where you can buy cables, chargers, headphones, etc. The development cost is written off over many thousands of machines.

A machine dispensing cables is easier to operate and maintain than one dispensing frozen microwave dinners.

Now, there is an opportunity cost for the FAANG company, where managers have to spend some of their time setting up and maintaining a deal like this. Too many distractions from core business is not a good thing.

But working with computers, there's always some type of cable or adapter missing. It takes time to find or buy one. So I can see how it'd be nice to always be able to get what you need in-house.

There's the real "conspiracy" on how car companies pushed for freeways and roads. Is that a "conspiracy"?

I agree. Each individual company would have an obvious interest to push for things like that. No need to secretely meet with others and hatch elaborate plans.

nox1014• 2 years ago

Follow up. I got curious what the latest thinking on the Lab Leak was and found this recent ACX post

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-r...

That settled it for me at least that it was not a lab leak. Glad to get that debated so well and so solidly

lapcat2• 2 years ago

Related: The book "How Minds Change" by David McRaney.

With regard to the stability of beliefs, there's a strong element of social reinforcement at work. An incident discussed in the above mentioned book is how a group of prominent 9/11 truthers was invited to meet with various scientific experts who presented the case against the conpiracy, and as a result of the meeting, one (but only one) member of the group did change his mind about 9/11. However, this rejection of the conspiracy by a prominent conspiracist did not cause a crisis of belief among the rest. Rather, they rejected and shunned the mind-changer from the community, despite the fact that he used to be a leader of the community.

tossandthrow• 2 years ago

These dynamics play out everywhere when you stop sharing fundamental beliefs about a system.

There are numerous of cases of financiers, academics, etc. who have been expelled because they have corrected their beliefs in contrary to the groups.

I see a lot of general social dynamics being presented negatively depending on the case: We need inclusion in primary school but celebrate exclusion in other communities (like the conspirators).

I guess the world is just a bunch in incoherent emotional babbling with no hope for a consistent model.

nonrandomstring6• 2 years ago

There are numerous of cases of financiers, academics, etc. who have been expelled because they have corrected their beliefs in contrary to the groups.

The best thing to do is leave. Once you cross that Rubicon, never think "I can change this system/institution from within". You will die on that hill.

I wish people had better psychological education and preparation to understand what institutions are. Realistic preparation before joining the police, army, government, or academia would help many people avoid so much suffering - and make those institutions "better" by making it easier for differently-thinking individuals to get out and start new movements or institutions.

It's really hard, because sometimes ones whole identity gets wrapped up in that group. Cult leavers often talk about this. Rejecting the ideas is the comparatively easy part. Escaping the people is harder. But hardest of all is escaping the part of yourself that identifies.

Sorry I don't have a better link to this video [0], but it matches my experience, of waking up one day in an in institution I had outgrown, surrounded by tiny-minded, compliant, insecure, mutually hostile, self-deluding people. It takes courage to move on.

[0] https://youtu.be/LKiBlGDfRU8?si=yn9ii7jkoJ1w2pMo

renegat0x0• 2 years ago

Most conspiracy theories come from the internet. Internet is a place full of crooks.

Every power tried to meddle. Russia, Germany, America. Each power has their own cyber army that tries to control media, or influence it.

Conspiracy theories. You do not even know if it is just another disinformation campaign from your government. Maybe it is just another disinformation campaign to add new layers of control disguised as user protection.

Why not make better tools for moderation? Naaah they will always decide to create more oversight boards.

nrdxp• 2 years ago

If we make it that far, and if freedom ever returns, 100 years from now (or more) they will gloss over the atrocities of the 20th century and the main event will be how in the 21st century they actually convinced the whole world that powerful people always have the best interest of the common folk at heart and never doing anything for their own interests, the government loves you and wants to take good care of you, the media always tells the truth, and to think otherwise was a mental illness worthy of ridicule and scorn lest you repent to the gods of the internet. Then they will list off the horrendous atrocities that led to, starting with..

Well, we are in for one hell of a century

2devnull• 2 years ago

“It also implies that explanations of belief in conspiracy theories need to accommodate the observation that beliefs in such theories vary much more between people than within people.”

To me it implies that what they are operational using as “conspiracy theory” is nothing more than individual differences in personality. Those who want to study/address/remove “conspiracy theories” really just have a problem with individual differences and want to control others.

verisimi• 2 years ago

"Conspiracy belief" is a nonsense term.

"Conspiracy theory" is simply a pejorative label.

To ask, 'are there conspiracies?' is akin to asking 'do people lie or cheat for personal benefit?' The answer is 'yes, of course!'

The real question, is 'what is the truth?' And therein lies the problem with this research. Just because something is said to true or a lie (aka 'conspiracy theory'), how can one know it to be so? Can media or Wikipedia or anyone be assured to have the truth? Is there a bastion of truth? If 99.999% of people believe something, does that make it true?

The answer is that there is source for truth, and that no one can determine the truth for anyone else. One can only personally verify something to be true. Truth cannot be outsourced to the BBC, NYT, psychologist organisations, science studies, etc. Whether others believe things to be true has nothing to do with the underlying reality - many people can be wrong.

So, this sort of analysis comes with all sorts of illogical nonsense baked in. It assumes that certain institutions and people are truthful, that conspiracies do not occur, that people cannot act on personally verified knowledge rather beliefs, that truth is a numbers game - where what most people believe is also true.

Quinzel• 2 years ago

Some reasons why changing beliefs is difficult to do:

People are more likely to believe something if it follows intuitive thinking, is familiar or easily retrievable from memory [1]. Additionally, while efforts to correct beliefs in misinformation can be successful, the continued influence effect means that misinformation and correct information compete for activation, meaning that even after correction, misinformation may still be recalled [1]. It is important to note that debunking misinformation does not work as effectively at the group level [1]. Therefore, understanding social identity theory and intergroup threat theory may also be useful for correcting beliefs at the group level through an improved understanding of the human desire to align with groups to reduce feelings of insecurity [2].

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s44159-021-00006-y

[2] Chapter 7 of this book http://www.philippebourbeau.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/B...

reify• 2 years ago

I used to hear conspiracy stories all day long.

Working with mental health clients for 20 years.

If we all continue to not accept that conspiracy theories are valid we also choose to not accept that those people are valid.

Why is it that over the past few years those with different opinions are now called conspiracy theorists.

It is a very rare experience that I sit down with someone, in fact anyone, and we agree on all subject matter on the table. Just because someone has different views does not make them a conspiracy theorist.

There is always grain of truth in conspiracy theories.

In psychiatric wards over the world there are people who struggle with intrusive paranoid thoughts. Do we dismiss what they think, see and imagine as not being real? It is real to them.

To really understand these poeple you need to step inside their world and you will see that their is a grain of truth in what paranoid people are talking about.

If people feel helpless, that they are not being heard or they have no control over their lives, is it so hard to believe that they will cling on to something/anything that represents how they feel.

The lizard people on the moon who control our way of life on earth is a classic example. There are of course no lizard people living on the moon but I am sure many people feel that there are hidden forces controlling their lives that they have no influence upon.

I think it has a lot to do with the lack of transparency in the world of politics, government and tech. Without knowing the truth the mind will inevitably wander and make up stories.

Isnt this what conspiracy theories are. Stories built on snippets of truth.

lapcat2• 2 years ago

What actions exactly are you suggesting here? It sounds to me like you're claiming there's nothing at all wrong with mental health clients or people in psychiatric wards, and thus we ought not to try treating them but rather discharge them and send them on their way into society as totally normal.

beej71• 2 years ago

My read was that if you want to engage with people who are deep in a conspiracy theory, you need to examine it to find the source.

Changes in conspiracy beliefs are rare, but possible

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