California EV sales are falling

https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-02-15/falling-ev-sales-raise-worries-over-california-climate-plan

by nancyp • 2 years ago

16 43 2 years ago

nancyp• 2 years ago

There are even signs that Californians may be growing tired of Tesla — or at least weary of its outspoken chief executive, Elon Musk

PopAlongKid• 2 years ago

The previous comment is just a quote from the article, which also ends on this same note:

There’s no survey to prove it, but there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest liberal-leaning California car buyers are done with Elon Musk’s abrasive personality and his stands on political issues. (Ask friends or neighbors who drive a Tesla.)

ejb9992• 2 years ago

so in other words, liberals were all in favor of saving the planet, until they found out that someone they don't like is making money doing it?

TeckPerspecc• 2 years ago

Electricity is more expensive than gas in CA.

abeppu• 2 years ago

Electricity pricing is set to change to lower volume rates paired with a high up front cost to be connected to the grid. We'll see how the lower marginal cost changes consumer behavior.

tzs3• 2 years ago

Assuming an ICE that gets 40 mpg and an EV with the efficiency of a Chevy Bolt the EV costs less to charge than the ICE costs to fuel whenever G/E > 9.6, where G is the price of gas in dollars/gallon and E is the price of electricity in dollars/kWh.

At E = 0.35, the EV wins whenever G > 9.6 E = $3.36. Can you get gas for $3.36/gallon or less in California?

Speaking of gas prices, what is up with the large variation among stations? Right now along a mile along the main road in my area it is $3.59 at ARCO, $4.09 at Shell, and $4.39 at Chevron.

The ARCO is no busier than the others so it is not like people are going to Shell or Chevron because the wait is less. They are all selling gas that has the "TOP TIER(tm)" certification so its not like your car is going to have problems if you don't pay an extra $0.80/gallon to use Chevron.

Heck, its not even that you get a better convenience store at Shell or Chevron. ARCO has AM/PM which is way better.

rebuilder• 2 years ago

Is 35 cents / kWh normal in CA? I thought Europe had expensive electricity lately!

bigbillheck• 2 years ago

Does AM/PM still not take credit cards?

ravenstine3• 2 years ago

"But there are fast chargers everywhere now! Tesla is winning, and this is just the beginning of EVs!"

Sorry, I can't help but anticipate these canned responses every time this topic appears.

EVs aren't affordable enough in 2024 (no, bro; getting a loan isn't affording it) and the infrastructure to support most cars being EVs simply isn't there. In fact, it may never be there. Even in California, public garages may have something like 5% of its spots support charging, and these spots are quickly crowded these days. To get even half of public parking spaces to have chargers would be expensive and strain the power grid, which even the governor indirectly admits is inadequate for widespread use of EVs. People know this unconsciously and make the practical decision of buying an ICV.

Tesla also sucks all the oxygen out of the EV room and gives EVs in general an increasingly bad name. So many white Teslas are on the road now that there is no longer any cachet in owning one. It is kncreasingly coming off like a Toyota Carolla. No one is impressed anymore, which is bad for the crows that buys them to look cool. Not a single Tesla owner I have talked to trusts any of the automatic driving or parking features, and I have heard many stories from people being put in to dangerous scenarios by these vehicles. Elon's public persona isn't helping at this point, to say the least.

GenerWork2• 2 years ago

getting a loan isn't affording it

If the monthly payment is affordable to someone, isn't that by definition affordable?

Tesla ... gives EVs in general an increasingly bad name

This is an odd critique, I'd say that the bigger issue is that a lot of traditional auto manufacturers have done a poor job rolling out their electric vehicles.

seanmcdirmid• 2 years ago

Tesla has the best charging infrastructure and software stack, those of us who own non-Tesla EVs are the ones with difficulty finding charging.

ravenstine3• 2 years ago

If the monthly payment is affordable to someone, isn't that by definition affordable?

Going by the technicality of numbers, it's "affording" in the most immediate sense. It doesn't take into account the risk of a person losing their job and not affording the payments or what they are sacrificing in the long term by being a debter. If someone uses all their life savings to buy a mansion, but by doing so they have pennies left over and no hope of retiring, normally people don't say that person can afford the mansion. Likewise, many people obtain things like cars via debt and put themselves in a precarious financial situation, and it would be a stretch to call such people wealthy.

This is an odd critique, I'd say that the bigger issue is that a lot of traditional auto manufacturers have done a poor job rolling out their electric vehicles.

That is likely true as well, although it's difficult to distinguish whether other car companies are waiting for Tesla to "run out of bullets" before "launching missiles" at them. I can't read the minds of the people who run other companies that make EVs, thus I can't know whether they're thinking that way, but I find it rather plausible. Since most other manufacturers also produce internal combustion vehicles, they can take their sweet ass time.

Going by my own experiences, the decisions Tesla has been making, and the declining public perception of its CEO, my instinct tells me that Tesla (and perhaps the EV market in general) is going to have to see a decline before it gets a lot better. By no means am I suggesting that Tesla hasn't helped make some good things possible for EVs as a whole, but that it's gradually damaging the market it initially helped to create. Geeks (no offense) love to bring up Tesla's contributions to charging infrastructure and software, but the current state of things (and the state they will be in the near future) doesn't actually cut the mustard if EVs are ever going to go prime time. People of modest means need to see EVs as not luxury items to bolster the ego but as an obvious choice that is within reach of an affordable purchase. I'm not owning an EV any time soon because it makes zero financial sense to take out a loan for a Tesla when a used ICV fulfills all of my transportation needs. This is true for most Americans outside of the tech elite bubble. EVs are hardly there yet, and the question of whether there is actually enough infrastructure to support even half of cars on the road being EVs is still up for debate.

Like I mentioned, every discussion I've had with people in-person about Tesla vehicles, both with owners and non-owners, has been hardly flattering. Yes, this is subjective, and it's one man's experience. I'm just telling it like I've seen it. Next to no one I've met is impressed with these vehicles anymore, and often they find them to be disappointing. I haven't met a single owner who trusts the ability of their Tesla to park itself or do anything autonomously, and I've heard multiple stories of said features nearly getting people killed. Let me repeat that these are not anecdotes from randos online, but stories from people I actually know who own these vehicles. I live in LA, so I've plenty of experience being in these vehicles and knowing the people who own them. Yes, it's entirely possible that others have had the polar opposite experience. I nonetheless have to trust what I've seen and heard firsthand, at least to an extent. Moreover, the growing distrust of Musk is real, and he can't (yet?) be disentangled from the Tesla's image.

I want anyone reading this to absorb that I'm not against electric vehicles. What I am against is delusional mindsets that actually set back the long term progress of EVs.

someonehere• 2 years ago

I have multiple friends in the Bay Area regretting getting an EV. Broken chargers, power outages, and waiti no in lines seems to the the main complaint.

I also just read the federal government is relaxing rules to give infrastructure and manufacturers to catch up

https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/18/24076585/biden-emission-r...

bnolsen• 2 years ago

You must have a garage with the ability to charge overnight. Otherwise an EV just isn't worth it, IMHO.

itsoktocry• 2 years ago

Of course. There was novelty, a tech boom and governments doing everything they could to induce people to buy them. All of those things are diminished. California was ground zero, because of climate, the business and liberal policies.

I've always been a pessimist on the short term growth estimates of EVs, they didn't make sense to me. $35,000 cars (with subsidies) aren't really cheap cars. You can talk about how much maintenance EVs save, and yet the data says eg Teslas (the best of the best) have higher annual ownership costs than the competitors. You aren't really going to save money buying a Model 3 over a Honda Civic. That's a fact.

But, EVs aren't going anywhere, they'll only keep improving.

zwily• 2 years ago

Higher ownership costs? Do you have details? Mine have definitely been lower (7 years now)

(I’m talking about costs after purchase, not TCO which includes the higher price. Maybe you were talking TCO)

thejazzman• 2 years ago

$15k battery replacement for my 2015 S makes it by far the most expensive ownership cost I've ever experienced. And it didn't even have anything to do with my usage of the vehicle.

62951413• 2 years ago

Is it really $35K now? Because the way I remember it, a couple years ago the top trim Elantra was ~$25K and the same for Civic was ~$30K. So the difference wouldn't be as dramatic in purely monetary terms.

light_hue_12• 2 years ago

These EV-bait articles are ridiculous. The data tells the opposite story. Quarter, total registrations that quarter, percentage of cars sold that are EVs.

    4Q22,  1Q23,  2Q23,   3Q23,   4Q23
    76501, 87816, 102991, 100151, 89933
    19.0%, 20.5%, 21.8%,  22.3%,  21.1%

California EV sales were up significantly in 2023. They had a great 2023 compared to 2022. YoY Q4 23 sales are up almost 20%.

Yeah, there's a big absolute drop Q4 23, but it's still up a lot YoY. But a small percentage drop. It's simple, fewer cars were sold by everyone in Q4 2023 regardless of engine.

What the article says is that compared to the most amazing sales ever, sales are down a little, but still astronomically better than ever.

The sales of almost every model of EV are up astronomically.

Raw data available here https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-associ...

dragontamer• 2 years ago

Yeah, there's a big absolute drop Q4 23

That's when Tesla Model3 had the biggest declines in price though... and Tesla ModelY had plenty of price drops throughout 2023. If EVs are selling less, despite huge declines in price, is that not worrisome?

---------

We can also look at the used-price: https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends/Tesla-Model-3...

Used is important for people who plan to sell their vehicles later. If your car declines from $50k to $45k over a few years of use, you feel good. But if your car declines from $65k to $35k after a few years of use, you don't feel near as good.

burnerthrow008• 2 years ago

It's also after the Model 3 refresh was released in Europe and before it was available in the US. Probably just a bunch of people waiting a couple months so they could get the new version.

light_hue_12• 2 years ago

They aren't selling less YoY, they're selling more. And as a percentage of all cars they're selling a lot more.

Car sales are down all around. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/business/economy/auto-sal...

No car retains its value well, but for a long time the Model 3 retained more of its value than any other mainstream car. That's eroding now because prices are lower and the subsidy is back.

You can't have it both ways. Either we want cheaper cars or we want them to keep their value longer.

For one, I'm happy prices are down, it will help with adoption. It's ok that my car is worth less. I don't plan on getting rid of it.

baggy_trough2• 2 years ago

I just bought an ICE car although I was considering a Tesla. Reasons:

- I have no idea what is going to happen with electric rates and no confidence in PG&E or the state to manage electricity provision or rates in a sane fashion.

- I don't qualify for the EV subsidy which makes ICE cars more attractive in terms of cost.

- I consider gas cars more robust in the face of natural disasters or sudden need to get far out of the Bay Area for whatever reason (zombie attack).

- Avoids the complexity of figuring out a home charging solution or how to change to an optimal one of the N electricity pricing plans.

ravenstine3• 2 years ago

I also will keep my ICV until it catastrophically fails because there's far more repairs one can do on the cheap with one than with an EV, I speculate. Besides anything involving the clutch packs in the transmission or critical components internal to the actual engine, there's a lot you can do to maintain your vehicle if you own a floor jack and stands. One of the things I like about owning a decade-old 4 cylinder, as opposed to a bigger engine or an EV, is how relatively straight forward the entire drive-train is. Get your hands on the mechanic shop manual for your model, and often times it's clear that a trip to O'Reilly and an an hour underneath the vehicle is all you need, and no labor cost required.

For example, my Hyundai Elantra kept showing the engine light, and I don't remember the exact OBD-II code, but I think it was something like "too lean on bank 2" or something like that. Didn't really make sense because the engine was performing just fine and the injectors weren't clogged. So I went down to the auto parts store, got a new oxygen sensor for $130, replaced the old downstream one, and that code never came back. I'd have paid way more taking that into even a good shop.

I'm not saying that there's no good reason to get an EV because they're less repairable, but I'm the type who doesn't want to give up the kind of independence my current car gives me. I like that I have far more options for replacing the head unit in my car. I like that I can do wacky and kind of pointless things to it like converting it to being flex-fuel and running it on moonshine. But most people aren't like that. It's nevertheless a bummer that we are trading freedom for something that, hopefully, will be more convenient in the future – I'm not exactly sure how an EV is actually more convenient today besides being able to charge it at home.

dzhiurgis2• 2 years ago

Can’t wait to get rid of my second car which is still ICE. Actually waiting for it to be fixed (misfire due to injector clog).

Same reason I’m avoiding gas bbq or any other poison like this at home - that shit stinks and works like a horse. It’s so done.

thebruce87m3• 2 years ago

- I consider gas cars more robust in the face of natural disasters or sudden need to get far out of the Bay Area for whatever reason (zombie attack).

I use about 10% battery per day and charge every night so my EV is on average “fuller” than my ICE ever was. Couple that with the ability to carry solar panels and charge in the middle of nowhere - doesn’t that give some pros to the EV in case of zombies? No engine noise either ( but I’m sure they’ll hear the heat pump if close enough ).

downrightmike• 2 years ago

EVs are great, but they are a misdirection, if we want to meet climate and pollution goals, we must have a lot more street and ICE rail.

legitster• 2 years ago

EVs have a used car problem. They absolutely get decimated by depreciation. So total cost of ownership is higher than would otherwise be

And California's EV sales requirements means that manufacturers have been dumping bad/unprofitable cars into the market for years. Many of these cars barely function in colder weather, so they don't propagate out to other parts of the country.

thebruce87m3• 2 years ago

EVs have a used car problem. They absolutely get decimated by depreciation.

I see this narrative pushed a lot, but never with any numbers. When I look at the depreciation of Teslas they seem to be 50% after 3 years, which is absolutely standard in the UK for any vehicle. What are “decimated” numbers?

genocidicbunny3• 2 years ago

My 8 year old ICE is still worth about 60% of what i paid for it, and that's with quite a lot of miles on it.

Gibbon1• 2 years ago

Lot of EV's are basically lux cars. And those always have a sharp drop in price.

When I look at the non lux Chevy Bolt the used price doesn't seem that much off the tax and incentive adjusted price of a new one.

Tiktaalik• 2 years ago

I don't find it super surprising. I mean these are luxury products during a period of severe inflation and economic trouble (some are doing just fine, but sectors (hi video games) are experiencing extreme economic trauma).

Is this really just an EV issue or are luxury cars in general seeing headwinds? I'd be interested to see data on that.

simonblack• 2 years ago

https://archive.is/0nUcq

California EV sales are falling

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