Germans shrug off economic gloom at booming Oktoberfest

https://www.ft.com/content/c251bdfe-9ba3-4204-b933-b7bd6b514549

by pg_1234 • 3 years ago

69 172 3 years ago

pg_1234• 3 years ago

shikshake• 3 years ago

I had no idea the economy was like that in Germany. I’ve recently been considering moving there from the US so it’s kind of a bummer to learn this.

peer2pay2• 3 years ago

It’s hard not to be pessimistic in Germany these days.

Population is aging and paying for the retirement money for all existing retirees is already taking up over 25% of government spending. There’s barely money for anything else so taxes and social security payments are poised to go up while already being close to ~50% for most earners.

There’s a strong and growing far-right movement full of populist and even neo-nazi ideologies.

Infrastructure is still top notch internationally but funding has been cut over the last decades and it’s starting to show.

I could go on but I think you get the picture. Many people in my social circle want to leave the country so I would really think twice about moving here.

andersa• 3 years ago

Many people in my social circle want to leave the country

And go where?

protortyp2• 3 years ago

I strongly agree. Much of my social circle went to Amsterdam in hopes of better salaries and the tax benefit for the first few years.

lnsru4• 3 years ago

Well when a refugee with 2 kids gets 1890€ in cash, Kindergeld on top, free health insurance and free housing… I am also becoming very quickly populist and even neo-nazi follower. That’s income level of white collar worker after university studies and few years work experience. This nonsense with uncontrolled immigration must be over asap. Get the people some warm shelter and warm food, don’t throw money at them!

sneed_chucker• 3 years ago

The far-right movements are a completely predictable and preventable result of the immigration policy of the last 2 decades.

nicbou2• 3 years ago

The same is true everywhere else, and there a mix of unrest and despondency grows from it.

Society has failed this generation the world over.

FirmwareBurner13• 3 years ago

I had no idea the economy was like that in Germany.

Addiction to Russian gas, over-bureaucratic system that's super inefficient with tax-money meaning most goes to waste, an ageing population hoarding all the wealth and burdening the welfare system, uncontrolled unskilled immigration further burdening the welfare system and pushing rents up, clueless boomer leaders not investing in innovation and capturing new areas of the economy, refusing to build more real-estate because environment further pushing housing up, politics based on ideology not reality, a clueless and arrogant voter base thinking everything is perfect and none of the issues above need addressing, will do that to you.

Though, that's most of Europe, not just Germany.

vkou2• 3 years ago

Why is an aging population an issue? Labour participation and productivity is up over the decades, society can produce more than enough widgets to keep everyone comfortable, despite the aging population causing a regression-to-historic-mean in labour participation.

angra_mainyu6• 3 years ago

I'd wait a bit, at least until end of Q1 2024 to see which place makes the most sense socioeconomically.

That said, I strongly recommend the Balkans (e.g: Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) if you have a remote source of income: very safe, great people, fantastic culture, in the big cities English is widely spoken, low cost-of-living, active tech communities, and you're usually surrounded by tons of beautiful nature and again, some of the best people ever.

Not to mention, setting up your own company usually allows you to operate in a low tax/tax-optimized fashion.

For what it's worth, I've lived all over Europe (including Germany) and the Balkans really must be the best place in Europe - as long as you're earning remotely, local wages are unfortunately ridiculously low.

konschubert• 3 years ago

Serbia is preparing to invade Kosovo:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/30/europe/kosovo-tensions-mi...

qwytw4• 3 years ago

you're usually surrounded by tons of beautiful nature and again

Also very high pollutions levels:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jan-Horalek/publication...

great_psy• 3 years ago

Regarding the Balkans …

Low cost of living in some regards … housing for example compared to most western countries.

But higher cost of living in others … price of gas for example… it’s close to 1.75$ per litere.

Food in the big cities is slightly cheaper, but not that much cheaper than the west. Around 40-50$ per person at the restaurant.

Food is much cheaper in the smaller towns, but most people from the west are unlikely to want to live there. Gas the same, housing is basically free, but there’s a reason for it.

AlbertCory• 3 years ago

Thanks. I've been to Europe a bunch of times, including once east of the Iron Curtain when it was still up. If I were to go back now, the Balkans, Poland, and Lithuania would be the destinations (the last two are for ancestry reasons).

They're just more interesting.

Moldoteck2• 3 years ago

There are problems in balkans. In Romania, hospitals are just sh**, same thing with infrastructure/public transport&hoghways and education system. For the rest, yeah, with western salary it's cheap here and food is ok, you can live with little stress from 2k eur/m

amelius• 3 years ago

There was some discussion about it a month ago:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37172818

ivix• 3 years ago

Why on earth would you live your life by a sub single digit percentage swing in an abstrusely calculated macroeconomic statistic?

eigenspace• 3 years ago

Honestly, the gloom over Germany’s economy is fairly overblown. Germany is facing challenges, but they're by no means as apocalyptic as people make them out to be.

It’s not really a German recession, but instead a global manufacturing recession. Germany’s economy is highly exposed to manufacturing, and so it shows up more in the country-wide economic stats. If you look at almost any major manufacturing country right now, their manufacturing sector is also in recession.

Many other economic sectors of Germany are doing just fine, especially services. Unemployment is also very very low, so the country is well positioned to re-absorb any jobs that may be lost if some manufacturing companies go under, and those jobs may end up going into more productive companies or sectors anyways.

I moved here from Canada two months ago and I’m really liking it so far.

Barrin92• 3 years ago

We're currently in a war, a complete energy transition, global supply chain disruptions all hitting an export driven economy at the same time, and yet we're talking about GDP stagnation or decline of a fraction of a percent.

People are truly dramatic these days, if you had asked me five years ago what the toll of something like this would be I'd have guessed it'd be ten times as bad.

Give it a few years and don't base your long term decisions on stuff like this, Germany has always been resilient and able to adapt, if a little slowly at times. The 'sick man of Europe' debate is not new and the cup gets passed around every once in a while.

sambazi2• 3 years ago

folks are still scrambling for beers at more than twice the normal price

FirmwareBurner13• 3 years ago

Don't confuse tourists spending all-in, with the locals' purchasing power.

sambazi2• 3 years ago

good point

daniel-s• 3 years ago

I think that this is relevant. German industry has collapsed after the natural gas input from Russia got cut off.

https://youtu.be/22M813tN9zk

standardUser3• 3 years ago

A major economy is facing a minor recession in the aftermath of a once-in-a-generation energy shock and a once-in-a-generation inflation spike. If history tells us anything, it's that major economic powers are phenomenally robust.

FirmwareBurner13• 3 years ago

A lot of former major global economies have fallen off their peaks and never recovered. Britain used to rule the world and now ...

rank03• 3 years ago

This is not once in a generation for either of those things.

ttepasse• 3 years ago

"collapsed"

That would imply bankruptcies, mass unemployment, etc. But for some reason only the people on anglophile Youtube see this collapse. Germany mostly muddles through.

That is not to say there are no problems. But "collapse" is an absurd hyperbole.

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

Munich-born dude here. I'm glad when it's finally. fucking. over. even though it wasn't as bad as it used to be this year in public transport, no idea why - usually all kinds of trains are packed with people drunk out of their mind.

The problem is that a lot of prime real estate is taken over by an army of hotels that are only at ~50-60% load on average [1] but packed during Oktoberfest and the Bauma trade fair with prices skyrocketing to hundreds, even thousands of euros per night [2]. On top of that come all the more or less legal AirBnBs which are just as much of a goldmine, with Oktoberfest yielding enough to pay for a whole year worth of rent.

Fuck that completely unsustainable shit. I'm sick of the exploding rents, cost of living in this shithole of a city, and by the looks of it I'll be out in a year.

[1] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/319560/umfrag...

[2] https://www.merkur.de/lokales/muenchen/oktoberfest/oktoberfe...

JumpCrisscross2• 3 years ago

a lot of prime real estate is taken over by an army of hotels that are only at ~50-60% load on average

Isn’t this a textbook case for Airbnb (or something akin to it)? Residents live year round, except during the festival, when they rent out their homes?

Put another way, would the hotels be open to long-term leases which black out the festival?

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

Isn’t this a textbook case for Airbnb (or something akin to it)? Residents live year round, except during the festival, when they rent out their homes?

I lived above an AirBnB until the actual landlord shut that shit down. AirBnB is a fucking pest even without Oktoberfest, but during it it's even worse. NO ONE wants hordes of drunkards stomping through the stairwell at 03:00 in the morning. There's a reason accomodation providers are a regulated business.

Put another way, would the hotels be open to long-term leases which black out the festival?

Who can afford that? Even at 50€ a night it's 1500€ a month with barely more than a bed and a shower.

turing_complete• 3 years ago

Yes, Oktoberfest is the reason why Munich is so expensive. (Eyeroll)

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

The hotel plague definitely contributes to the problem. Take alone the Motel One Orleans x Rosenheimer Straße [1]. The 7000 m² would have been a lot of space that could have been used for a rental block, and to make it worse Motel One already has a hotel less than 10 min walking time on Orleansstraße. Or the FIVE HOTELS they built in the former Werksviertel [2]. Or yet another hotel in Hochstraße [3]. And that's just what has been going on over the last few years in my hood - I can reach any of these destinations in less than ten minutes with my bike - , not including what goes on near Central Station which already has the highest density of hotels in the entirety of Europe [4] and yet there are more projects under construction, often at the expense of housing and small businesses.

And all of this is only made possible by Oktoberfest and Bauma, because the extraordinary rates paid for during that time cross-finance the rest of the year.

I'm fucking fed up with hotels, I'm fed up with AirBnB, I'm fed up with tourists. Enough is enough.

[1] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/rosenheimer-strasse-hai...

[2] https://www.abendzeitung-muenchen.de/muenchen/hotelflut-im-m...

[3] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/haidhausen-hotels-novot...

[4] https://www.focus.de/regional/muenchen/muenchen-weil-ein-hot...

jklinger410• 3 years ago

In America, we love events that are boons to our local economies, even when it inconveniences us personally.

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

If the profits would stay in the local economies, maybe I'd not be so pissed about it. But a huge chunk of the profits ends up at international hotel conglomerates and beer breweries - the only one still independent is Augustiner, everyone else got bought up - and their shareholders.

Thanks but no thanks.

CogitoCogito• 3 years ago

That certainly is false as a general statement. In America, you will see countless complaints similar to those coming from /u/mschuster91. This makes sense, since many of those inconvenienced don't reap any economic benefits from it.

fruffy• 3 years ago

Most of the locals do enjoy the Oktoberfest (speaking as someone from there). It is a fun two weeks of the year and the entire city enters a special kind of mood.

But it is not surprising that the HN crowd would find it distasteful. People here are definitely not the type for these kinds of festivities.

browningstreet• 3 years ago

Obviously such a generalization can't be true.

When the Olympics come to town?

When Fleet Week comes to town?

When the giant music festivals happen in the parks?

When the big awards show takes over the tourist area?

When SF tourists make our ski mountains require paid parking on the weekends?

People grumble..

musicale• 3 years ago

Usually people/cities appreciate event and tourism business and money (and lament its loss, as during covid) but dislike the crowding and inevitable anti-social behavior that you can run into.

That being said, I've read some positive comments regarding tourists recently, noting that they are often enthusiastic about parts of your town that you might be jaded about or have written off as useless tourist areas but might actually be something that locals could enjoy as well.

myspy• 3 years ago

Come to lower franconia dude

partiallypro2• 3 years ago

this shithole of a city

I've lived in Munich and it's one of my favorite cities in the world. I'm from Nashville and I mostly hate it, though people seem to love it. I think you are experiencing a severe bias if you think Munich resembles anything close to a "shithole." It has amazing parks, great transportation options, a good vibe, hikes within a short train ride, etc. It has tourists and big events? Oh, no...so like every big city on Earth? Avoiding Wiesn is actually extremely easy, unlike other massive events in other cities.

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

I've lived in Munich for like what, 29, years of my life. It's seriously gone down the drain. Born there, went to school there, went to uni there, went away, and came back 8 years ago.

Housing is unaffordable if your parents haven't died and passed you a sizable estate, if you need childcare you have to register a year before planned conception (obviously exagerrated, but you get the point), good luck finding a doctor if you're not having private insurance, public transport is utterly nuts, cops will relentlessly hunt you down for smoking a blunt or beat you up for daring to host an outdoor rave, and there's fucking traffic everywhere.

reddiky• 3 years ago

As another Nashvillian(sp?), I definitely understand the difference between how a city is viewed by tourists and by locals. I don’t mostly hate Nashville, but I basically hate Broadway, 12 south, basically everything everyone thinks of as Nashville

schroeding2• 3 years ago

One of the problems in Munich is that all rapid public transport goes through the city centre, there is no loop around it like in Berlin. If you commute to the west you have to go through Hackerbrücke station - that's the one close to Theresienwiese, where Oktoberfest is. Same goes for the subway, Munich has very centralised hubs where the lines cross, hard to avoid.

Just to be the counterpoint: I'm also born in Munich and I like this city quite a lot. Certainly not a shithole, IMO - and that's the main reason why rents are as insane as they are. If not even Freiham, a big new city quarter which is currently being build, is able to put a dent into the rising rents, then I doubt replacing the extra hotel capacity would be a game changer either, IMO. Munich just grew way too quickly without scaling it's infrastructure accordingly.

marcotm• 3 years ago

Just to present a balanced view for our international audience: a significant number of locals sincerely enjoy Oktoberfest. Within my circles in the Munich tech/startup scene, a visit to Oktoberfest with the team is often considered one of the year’s highlights in terms of team building and socializing. People attend with friends, family, etc. The infamous images of inebriated tourists merely represent the most attention-grabbing outliers, overshadowing the majority who simply have a splendid time there.

Munich does have its share of issues, rent being a notable example. However, most of these problems are likely a result of the general lack of serious troubles, relatively speaking, which in turn boosts the city's attractiveness.

elzbardico• 3 years ago

Panis et Circenses, but the neoliberal version with less bread.

xenonite• 3 years ago

Plant based hyper-processed is all the hype now, which is sort of the same. Feeding, not nourishment.

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

It's not like meat would be better - for capitalist reasons, a lot of traditional breeds of cows, pigs and poultry are nearing extinction because production has optimized to a very few select breeds that produce the "most" meat, at the cost of the animal's welfare (especially with chicken that have issues standing upright) and the taste.

secondcoming• 3 years ago

The Tourist Oktoberfest in Munich is good to experience once, but I have no intention to ever go again. Queueing in the hope you can get into a tent, asshole bouncers, and massive crowds took the shine off a bit. You get a table and never leave until you're kicked out. The cost of the beer doesn't include the massive tips you're expected to give the beer women either (which they deserve)

The lack of a hangover after copious amounts of beer was quite a nice surprise though.

mschuster9116• 3 years ago

The lack of a hangover after copious amounts of beer was quite a nice surprise though.

That's because it's actual, high quality beer that's been brewed right in Munich - in fact, being brewed inside Munich city borders is a requirement to be allowed on the Oktoberfest, and there are only a handful of qualifying beer breweries in the first place [1].

For those wishing to go: keep in mind that the beer served on Oktoberfest is an even stronger variety than regular beer which is in itself way stronger than what is called beer in other places of this world. And for heavens sake don't forget to eat beforehand and during a tent visit.

[1] https://www.tz.de/muenchen/wiesn/oktoberfest-wiesn-festbier-...

helpfulContrib• 3 years ago

shrug .. Oktorberfest

Germans are exceptionally good at kicking back, drinking a few beers, and disconnecting from the real world, even if it is just for 6 or 8 hours or so. They can do it with an extraordinary insouciance that I do not believe is easily observable, elsewhere in the Western sphere.

I remember, arriving for my first year of many in a German town, to the raucous cacophony of a Karnival (im Rührgebiet) wherein a mass of teenagers, whom I would ordinarily have deemed far too irresponsible for the drunkenness and tomfoolery on display gleefully smashed their freshly emptied bottles of local beers in the village streets for all and sundry to enjoy. It was extraordinary - definitely not a riot, but rather a very well organized and town-supported explosion of pent-up energy. The glass was all impeccably removed within hours of the jubilations' end. This was a regular thing, a kind of festival, and nobody really minded the puke. The Rührpott weather would sort it out, ho ho.

And its the same throughout the German state, which is accustomed to so much gloom but yet produces so much beauty, life and vitality. I dare you to find the fertility of Münich or Köln or Frankfurt, in summer time, elsewhere .. it is palpable.

FirmwareBurner13• 3 years ago

I dare you to find the fertility of Münich or Köln or Frankfurt, in summer time, elsewhere

Your take feels weird, as if only Germany has great nightlife. I don't get what you were trying to prove with this point.

Most big European cities are vibrant in the summer, some even all year round, and some even better than the German cities you mentioned. Even Belgrade is friggin awesome to visit and party in.

dgellow3• 3 years ago

I dare you to find the fertility of Münich or Köln or Frankfurt, in summer time, elsewhere

How can you not mention Berlin? Splendid city to experience in spring and summer.

tetris112• 3 years ago

German drinking culture is certainly different. Pubs don't exist. Yeah sure you might have a Kneipe or a Biergarten here and there, but mostly, you go to your friends house to drink there or you sit around in a circle on the pavement (but never on the kerb…) outside a closed bar. There's a weird street energy there, but it's not intense, just conversationally pleasant. Maybe you get a Kebap on the way home, but only if you're waiting for your train.

The UK by contrast has a different energy. Pubs almost every corner, fancy ones with fireplaces and sofas, high heels and bare legs no matter the (often chill-inducing) weather, kebab shops surging with a strange camraderie, singing in the streets, and most importantly, people sitting on the kerb.

nicbou2• 3 years ago

Pubs don't exist? In what universe?

protortyp2• 3 years ago

As a local, I'm really looking forward to when this madness is over in a few days, so we can finally use the metro again without that ever-present puke smell.

tempodox• 3 years ago

The Oktoberfest is the largest annual drug festival in the world, but cannabis is still illegal in Germany.

zuzu893• 3 years ago

total Bavarian victory

dgellow3• 3 years ago

Next year, maybe :)

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/cannabis-le...

dauertewigkeit4• 3 years ago

I honestly do not see how the two things are related. Spending 15€ once instead of 8€ once is not really a sign of anything. You can do that even as an unemployed person on Bürgergeld.

What is worrying about the German economy is also not the current inflation but the long term outlook: the energy prices that will never be competitive, the 20 years of technological lag within almost all industries due to lack of investment and extremely risk averse financial climate, and the ever aging population, which now Germans are starting to realize, won't be so easily solved by immigration, neither illegal nor legal.

gumballindie2• 3 years ago

All good things come to an end, and so does the german economic miracle. Other countries in the eu need to capture a larger share of the market.

Germans shrug off economic gloom at booming Oktoberfest

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