Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals explain why the war hangs in the balance

https://www.economist.com/ukraines-fateful-winter

by sohkamyung • 4 years ago

32 49 4 years ago

Galanwe• 4 years ago

It's not just Ukraine in the balance, but most people don't even know about the silent war still happening 30 years on between Moldova and Russian backed separatist republic of Transnistria[1] which hosts 1500 Russian troops.

The absurd thing is that Transnistria was never part of Russian territories to begin with.

Hopefully we'll see a swift Russian defeat so that other countries can finally enjoy peace.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7RRJhhAEfk

DoItToMe81• 4 years ago

Transnistria was created by a pro-Soviet rebellion, at a point where the Russian government was on the verge of collapse. It has a significantly higher living standard than Moldova, one of the worst nations in Europe, which its citizens do not want to join.

It wasn't formed by massive arms deals and covert invasion followed by actual invasion like Ukraine's separatists. The Russian 'volunteers' were defectors with ethnic ties to the nation, who became fugitives until the Russian legal system collapsed completely, and illegal paramilitaries.

mpawelski• 4 years ago

It has a significantly higher living standard than Moldova, one of the worst nations in Europe, which its citizens do not want to join.

citation needed?

thewinnie5• 4 years ago

Out of curiosity, I watch couple youtube videos from travel bloggers. Although its hard to tell if people actually don't want to join Europe there or they force to tell this but from financial perspective it feels like they are on the same level as North Korea.

himinlomax2• 4 years ago

The Sudetenland also once had a pro German rebellion. It was created and propped by the Third Reich, just like the "rebellions" in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine were propped up by the Putin régime.

postingawayonhn• 4 years ago

I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine eventually attacks the Russian forces there, or at least works with Moldova to permanently blockade them.

pineaux• 4 years ago

I really hope to see more help in arms deliveries and more advanced weapon systems. More drones and more intelligent systems. I really think the war has just started and these people need all the help they can get.

Also trucks with generators would be nice. Just like the ones that film lighting companies have. They are so handy.

lionkor2• 4 years ago

You hope to see more war and death?

eCa• 4 years ago

Would you have preferred if WW2 ended with it’s 1942 borders?

archontes2• 4 years ago

I want to supply Ukraine every material assistance available until the 2014 borders are restored, and the Kremlin along with everyone inside it are as flat as a pancake by way of a long range armament.

selivanovp• 4 years ago

“Russia will run out of shells” from the creators of “Russia ran out of rockets in March”.

mjfl2• 4 years ago

Also: $1 trillion Defense spending is not enough, vote more so the USA does not run out of ammo!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammun...

hackandthink2• 4 years ago

Zelensky: “And that is why it is very important…to go to our borders from 1991.”

"In private, however, Ukrainian and Western officials admit there may be other outcomes"

How private is talking to journalists?

sph• 4 years ago

They probably mean that the official stance, as voiced by Zelenskyy on TV and state media, is to reconquer the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea, but everybody knows that it perhaps won't be possible to achieve this ultimate goal.

It's not private, but it is not a secret either. It just isn't the official position of the government.

I think it's good for the morale that Zelenskyy the strong leader of Ukrainians that will repel the bloody Russians whatever the odds, and Zelenskyy the prime minister with a terrible defensive war on his hands, to be two separate personas. One is more personable, but you need the other to win hearts, minds and the war.

hackandthink2• 4 years ago

It's amazing how well propaganda works. Maybe people are just stupid.

wrp• 4 years ago

This public vs. private split goes back a ways. When the eastern regions split off in 2014, many Ukrainian political figures took the public stance of recovering those regions at all cost, while privately admitting they were glad to see them go.

From a British political scientist who interviewed them: So...We can imagine that the Ukrainian leadership will continue to voice support for regaining the occupied territories, but not try very hard to actually bring it about. In interviews conducted in Kyiv in the summer of 2018, several elites asserted that while Ukraine cannot declare a policy of surrendering the territory, recent changes in law and in practice indicate a de facto policy of stabilizing the status quo rather than trying to reverse it. (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/08883254187910...)

orwin• 4 years ago

There is a big issue with Crimea ownership for Russia, which can in part explain the second aggression: it doesn't have freshwater, so the costs to keep it running as it was pre 2014 are way, way higher than expected for Russia once the freshwater canal was closed by Ukraine. The bridge isn't enough (it would need at least doubling the tracks), and expensive, so Russia need the land bridge.

I'm pretty sure that Ukraine will stall the Crimean front is they manage to separate the two fronts.

WastingMyTime892• 4 years ago

Still, it will also be a lot harder for Ukraine to get support from their western allies when it comes to Crimea.

First, it's considered vital by Russian strategists so the likelihood of Russia using a nuclear weapon if Crimea is at stake is higher than for anything else in the conflict.

Secondly, historically, the claim of Ukraine to Crimea is far more tenuous than for the other area at stake. Crimea has been at odd with the Ukrainian federation regarding its independence for as long as it has existed as an entity independent of the USSR. It was rattached to Ukraine in the act acting its existence as a political entity and one of its first move was declaring independence in 1992 which Ukraine rejected. They were de facto independent and very pro-Russia until 1995 when Ukraine sent its army and forced their government into exile. It makes Crimea pretty unique in the conflict as there is a legitimate claim that it actually wants to be a part of Russia rather than Ukraine which is why the western reaction following the 2014 invasion was so muted.

slaw2• 4 years ago

Is it possible for Crimea to become independent country?

thewinnie5• 4 years ago

Can you please add some proofs for all your statements?

As a person who been living in Crimea for big part of my live I do find your comment very disconnected from reality.

From strategist perspective Crimea does not have anything to give to Russia except logistics problems and few military bases.

Ukraine has way more claims for Crimea rather than Russia. If we gonna use your logic than Russia should give back to Ukraine Kuban oblast (which for long time were part of the USSR)

Crimea had its own parliament but saying it was independent its an open lie. Crimea belong to crimean tatars. Which been deported from Crimea during Stalin genocide. But if we go with your logic, crimean tatars should be the one who are the real "owners" of the Crimea, and they are pro-Ukrainane. Simply cause russia to this day killing and torturing them.

Nothing with Crimea occupation is unique. Dictatorship government occupy new territory, silencing and do genocide so then it will be easy to fake referendums.

UltraViolence5• 4 years ago

I fear for Ukraine if they will eventually lose the war. If that happens they'll most likely come under the Russian sphere of influence and the West will pull back leaving them to fend for themselves whilst their entire country lies in ruins. They'll be ruined both militarily and financially.

The Russians will do nothing to aid them, probably accusing them of resisting and killing many of their countrymen and in reprisal taking large swaths of land and destroying their culture. I foresee many millions of Ukrainians leaving for Western Europe if that scenario becomes reality, which could destabilize Western European nations.

War isn't about destroying tanks and airplanes but occupying the land of your opponent. Russia certainly has a leg up in that regards since they're sacrificing hundreds of thousands of young men to stop the Ukrainians from advancing and could even take Kiev next year.

If Ukraine loses it will mean yet another huge blow to the West. And all this started because we prodded them to become NATO member. They even put their desire for NATO membership in their Constitution! I believe this was the straw that broke the camel's back and inspired Putin to invade.

guax• 4 years ago

"And all this started because we prodded them to become NATO member."

When you say this in this way you're taking agency out of Ukraine. They wanted nato membership to be protected from Russian influence, they were being harrased since they became free. Of course NATO would probe them, just like a salesman will try to sell you a car if you walk in a dealership. There is existing interest.

UltraViolence5• 4 years ago

I very much hope that Ukraine wins this war, but won't lose any sleep over it if they don't.

I sincerely believe the problem started when the U.S. government Think Tanks in Washington decided Russia should be split up into smaller states without nuclear capability. U.S. policy has been to turn that concept into reality by surrounding Russia with NATO states on its borders and threatening it in the hope its population would rebel and making it ripe for breakup.

Mikeb85• 4 years ago

And all this started because we prodded them to become NATO member.

This is victim blaming. I'm in the Czech Republic right now, ask anyone here if they want the Russians back? There's Ukrainian flags everywhere here and no one dreams of giving up support.

Nearly every formerly communist country that's remotely functional has joined or wants to join NATO, because absolutely no one wants "Russky Mir".

UltraViolence5• 4 years ago

Before Russia invaded Ukraine the U.S. was already prodding to deny Russia access to its Crimean naval bases. This was why Russia saw no other option than to invade and take the Crimea from Ukraine. This is what actually started the ball rolling.

Isinlor• 4 years ago

Russian aggression started from Ukraine wanting to join EU in 2014, not NATO.

There is one really simple fact explaining why Ukraine wants to join EU.

Polish and Ukrainian economies were exactly the same size in 1991 after collapse of the Soviet Union. Ukrainian economy was actually a bit bigger in 1990. We had almost the same population of around 40 million people, similar location and culture.

Yet, in 2013 Polish economy was almost 3 times bigger than Ukrainian ($521B Polish GDP / $190B Ukrainian GDP = 2.7). By 2021 there were almost 2 million Ukrainian economical immigrants in Poland.

Many Ukrainians conclude that being in western sphere of influence is just economically better.

Noticeably better, by example of Poland, maybe even 3 times better.

Putin on the other hand is afraid that if Ukraine becomes richer than Russia, then Russians will also start revolution. Hence the desire to subjugate or destroy Ukraine by all means.

And having your land invaded and annexed by Russia (2014 annexation of Crimea) kind of makes you really want to join NATO. Nobody, not even Putin, could have foreseen that.

UltraViolence5• 4 years ago

Every dirt-poor nation in Eastern Europe wants to become part of the EU, especially because of the billions in handouts of the so-called "Infrastructure Funds" which are being pilfered and used to finance nepotistic and corrupt anti-democratic political movements in both Hungary and Poland.

Obviously Ukraine wanted a piece of that cake. And so does Belarus and every other former Soviet state al the way to Turkmenistan.

Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals explain why the war hangs in the balance

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